Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[ON Progressive]

I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state...

[ON Progressive]

I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state...

The true nightmare scenario would be if California, Utah, and Arizona were all swing states at once.

[Crumpets]

I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

I'm just waiting for CA and WA to implement the top-two primary for the Presidential election as well - Hillary vs. Trump in every state, except for WA and CA which are Hillary vs. Bernie and take two weeks to count.

[Gass3268]

The dam broke in California:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1062203602331226112

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062545235631267840

I've been following this guy from the Salt Lake Tribune for my Utah related info. We apparently got an updated count of the votes left in Utah, but they weren't specifically for UT-4. Just county numbers.

[Tintrlvr]

It seems like even if they're underestimating Utah County ballots remaining, it would have to be a major underestimate to make a difference; Love would need about double the margin she's projected to gain from the remaining votes in order to take the lead in the estimated count.

Of course, the SLC estimates could be off in her favor, too.

[Thatkat04]

It seems like even if they're underestimating Utah County ballots remaining, it would have to be a major underestimate to make a difference; Love would need about double the margin she's projected to gain from the remaining votes in order to take the lead in the estimated count.

Of course, the SLC estimates could be off in her favor, too.

The last Salt Lake County drop was only 3 points for McAdams, so Love certainly has a path to victory if he keeps under performing like that. But thats a big if.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

[Tintrlvr]

The dam broke in California:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1062203602331226112

Interesting history there:

1998: 1990 incumbent-protection gerrymander holds up
2000: The 1990 incumbent-protection gerrymander collapses in a Presidential year as the state changes from a swing state to a Democratic-leaning state
2002: New incumbent protection gerrymander. One new D seat but no seats change hands
2004: Incumbent-protection gerrymander holds
2006: One R seat from the 2000 incumbent-protection gerrymander flips to the Ds
2008-2010: Incumbent-protection gerrymander continues to hold other than the one prior deviation
2012: Non-partisan redistricting commission tosses the incumbent-protection gerrymander, replaces it with a map emphasizing fair and competitive districts. Ds gain many seats
2014: One more D gain in a year that is R-leaning overall nationwide, but the state moves in the opposite direction from the country
2016: No changes in a Presidential year where preferences are locked in, but lots of movement beneath the surface where previously safe R seats move close to being competitive
2018: Nearly all remaining competitive R seats flip to the Democrats, Republicans reduced to just a handful of safe seats plus Valadao
2020: (likely Valadao loses, Ds hold on to everything else, based on historical patterns)
2022: New map may result in some current R or D seats becoming more competitive. Depending on who is President and their popularity, there could be significant movement one way or the other but based on the history, I wouldn't want to be a Republican...

[MAINEiac4434]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

Thurmond is more of the same. Bad educations, no reform (and a Northern Californian.) Tuck did phenomenal work improving LA's schools, and has the managerial talent needed for the job. Besides, charter schools are great, and they should be encouraged. The more the merrier.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

FWIW Salt Lake Tribune reporter seems to think McAdams is still on track to win UT-04. These are his calculations:

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062545235631267840

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Over 3.2 million votes left to be reported. I say reported because many of the counties in the list have not reported since election night or the early morning after. I’d guess that there’s less than 2 million that need to be “counted.”

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Wow she's actually gonna do it!

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

oh wait, that is it? oh, I guess wodall hold on the.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

oh wait, that is it? oh, I guess wodall hold on the.

Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

oh wait, that is it? oh, I guess wodall hold on the.

Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome.

They're not certain about how much is left either, so we don't know. A similar remaining dump would push Bourdeaux over the top.

[Gass3268]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

[lfromnj]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

lol its funny to laugh at these people who never had to run a competetive GE ever before.

Anyway she already got the first step of lighting money on fire on stupid goals such as saving Barbara Comstock.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're not certain about how much is left either

Do we have some rough numerical estimate at least? There would need to be at least 10K to have the slightest chance of flipping the result (and probably more like 15K).