Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Brittain33]

MSNBC says people are worried about Tester? What's going on?

Everything I see on Twitter is from Breitbart.

[Brittain33]

Again, might be expectation setting:

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1059862293687816193

This sounds accurate to me, we all saw it and reaction from Republicans was in the news.

[Brittain33]

Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting

I can't read "Republicans may lose the House" as expectations setting because it's an overwhelming likelihood that they will. Optimistic Republicans think it will be by just a few seats.

[Brittain33]

The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown.

[Brittain33]

Someone needs to tell John King that districts like GA-2 and SC-7 report very unevenly by race.

[Brittain33]

I'm very concerned. Don't like IN-Sen, don't like FL-06.

FL-6 was a reach. It was DeSantis's district!

[Brittain33]

Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade.

[Brittain33]

I’m sorry guys, but there is not that much outstanding Dem vote in Florida.

Florida is gone.

How much outstanding vote do you calculate for Broward?

[Brittain33]

Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade.

It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads. 

CNN says Broward is 51% in. Miami-Dade is 75% in.

[Brittain33]

Steve Schale just posted that Broward has 150,000 votes left to count. Right now, Scott's up 55,000. This race is still close but not looking great for Ds, and the governor's race is worse. It's too early to call FL. I have to assume there are provisionals etc.

[Brittain33]

The NJ results are very uneven right now. Some of the northeast blue districts have few votes counted.

[Brittain33]

Ocean and Monmouth County have reported 350,000 votes on NYT. Hudson, Bergen, and Passaic have 75,000 votes. The Menendez numbers don't mean anything yet.

[Brittain33]

Does anyone else think Democratic money will pour into Mississippi in the event it's the deciding race and it will become quickly nationalized?

If they do, it will be pointless. MS won't flip in this environment (or any other we can think of.)

[Brittain33]

Nate Cohen says a Beto win is outside the MoE. It looks like all of his vote is in and Cruz's vote is still out.

[Brittain33]

So a little after 9 everything looked bad for Democrats, now it's looking better?

(Just trying to confirm, I had to drive for a half-hour)

Reality has set in about how bad this Senate map was for Dems when rural voters are still Trumpy.

[Brittain33]

Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map...

Yeah, and ugly numbers for Evers in Wisconsin too (tied with 36% in and all of Milwaukee counted).
May have to worry about Minnesota next.

Outstate hasn't been totaled for Evers. If that area has swung as it looks to have, that will help him.

[Brittain33]

RIP Ojeda.

[Brittain33]

If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now.

You know, that's pretty much it. I can accept that rural Trump states were too difficult for Donnelly, Heitkamp, etc. to hold, and Beto's probably a bridge too far, but Florida disappoints. At least it's become more Democratic with Amendment 4.

[Brittain33]

Van Drew is hardcore underperforming against a C-grade opponent...

Atlantic County isn't in yet.

[Brittain33]

CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN UT-02!?

That district actually has the most Dem parts of SLC, not UT-4. I'm guessing they get drowned out shortly.

[Brittain33]

MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R.

Uh... based on what?

Cleaver's leading by only 50,000 votes.

[Brittain33]

Democrats flipping the House is the key.  Taking the Senate would have been fantastic but was always a very unlikely shot.  Now we'll finally get to see some real oversight of the Trump administration.  Say hello to Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, for one.

It's good, but even if Dems couldn't flip the Senate, we're going to be in a deeper hole for 2020. Not great. But may have been unavoidable given the Senate's bias to rural states and could have been even worse.

[Brittain33]

The NYT House map of Iowa is the exact inverse of the incumbents' parties.

[Brittain33]

CNN projects Democrats will be under 200.

Did you mean Republicans?

[Brittain33]

Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot.

It looks like the gerrymander held in Ohio and may hold in NC. Maps with changes in VA and PA saw a large number of seats turn over. Depressing news given that gerrymandering will continue to be ignored by SCOTUS.