Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Bidenworth2020]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

What don't you understand? Kim's lead is down to 711 votes after both LA and OC dropped today.

I understand it now,lol.

[Skill and Chance]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

[Bidenworth2020]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

[Thatkat04]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Dave Wasserman is arguing on twitter that the estimated amount of ballots left in Utah County is being underestimated. If he's correct, I'd wager Love has a better shot than some of us think.

[Skill and Chance]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's go Porter!

[Xing]

Harder now has a 2.6% lead over Denham, or nearly 5K.

[2016]

Wasserman is generally a pretty good Numbers Cruncher. You can almost take it to the bank certainly better than Phony Nate Silver.

[ON Progressive]

Congrats, Representative Porter!

[Nyvin]

Stanton passed 60% in AZ-9

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

[libertpaulian]

Stanton passed 60% in AZ-9

The GOP didn't advertise here, right?

[Xing]

AP calls CA-10 for Harder over Denham

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/democrat-josh-harder-wins-us-house-seat-california-59179697

[Gass3268]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04.

[Bidenworth2020]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04.

is that confirmed fact? or speculation?

[Gass3268]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04.

is that confirmed fact? or speculation?

Pretty sure

https://twitter.com/robertgehrke/status/1062497407491928064?s=21

[Sestak]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04.

is that confirmed fact? or speculation?

Pretty sure

https://twitter.com/robertgehrke/status/1062497407491928064?s=21

So once we get those outstanding vote totals, we’ll likely have a favorite?

[Person Man]

What's the end count looking like it will be at this point?

[Antonio the Sixth]

YESSSSSSS KATIE!!!

MY QUEEN IS ALIVE

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin currently getting ratioed for using the same argument pro-RCV people used but reaching an absolutely asinine conclusion from it:

https://twitter.com/BrucePoliquin/status/1062377579406151680

[NOVA Green]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points.

Salt Lake City isn't in the district.   It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County.

Not to be pedantic, but in case it hasn't been mentioned before, there are (11) Salt Lake City precincts within the district (SLC 146, SLC148-152, SLC 156, SLC 158-160, SLC 167) that according to my SLC spreadsheet went in

2016: 3,903 HRC (60.9% D)- 1,201 DJT (18.8% R)- 1,301 OTHER (20.3%)----

According to the latest precinct file I just downloaded from Salt Lake County---

2018: CD-04--- 4,515 McAdams (77.7% D)- 1,282 Love   (22.1%)- 14 Write-IN     

According to my precinct neighborhood coding for Salt Lake City from NOV '16, these precincts are predominately located in the Sugar House neighborhood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_House,_Salt_Lake_City

Granted there are tons of unknowns here, since I wasn't saving previous precinct updates from Salt Lake County, as to where the votes have been updated and where they have not (more questions than answers), still although it only represents 3.2% of the entire Salt Lake County Vote Share posted, it is still one of the most Democratic Municipalities within the district (albeit an extremely small sliver of Salt Like City).

My humble suggestion would be for those interested in seeing where within Salt Lake County votes are coming from, would be to go the Salt Lake County website, download files in an Excel format on a twice daily basis (or whenever we know results will be posted), and then we can see how these results compare with other elections and try to estimate where the outstanding vote in the district is located....

This is the type of exercise that I have undertaken for multiple locations over various elections, for those Counties that actually post precinct level data, since it helps track actuals vs. historical numbers.

fwiw... most of the votes in Salt Lake County appear to be VbM vs EV or Vote Center, so we can't use that to model estimated breakdowns by outstanding votes, even if we know exactly which precincts are updating...

Now, unfortunately although I do have a comprehensive Nov 16 Salt Lake County spreadsheet floating around, I didn't go through the entire exercise of coding by cities other than Salt Lake City, but there are some pretty extensive Republican strongholds within Salt Lake County, as well as non- Salt Lake City Democratic leaning Cities, so I wouldn't assume that these numbers would necessarily be representative of outstanding ballots within the County.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, UT-4 is gonna come down to the wire.

[Nyvin]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points.

Salt Lake City isn't in the district.   It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County.

Not to be pedantic, but in case it hasn't been mentioned before, there are (11) Salt Lake City precincts within the district (SLC 146, SLC148-152, SLC 156, SLC 158-160, SLC 167) that according to my SLC spreadsheet went in

2016: 3,903 HRC (60.9% D)- 1,201 DJT (18.8% R)- 1,301 OTHER (20.3%)----

According to the latest precinct file I just downloaded from Salt Lake County---

2018: CD-04--- 4,515 McAdams (77.7% D)- 1,282 Love   (22.1%)- 14 Write-IN     

Huh,  guess you're right, I never noticed there is a tiny smidge of the city in the southeast there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, UT-4 is gonna come down to the wire.

Do we know what time the drops will come in tonight?