Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 201003 times)
Gass3268
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« on: November 06, 2018, 08:20:34 AM »

My brother's fiancée voted in a downtown Madison, Wisconsin precinct (off-campus student housing) at 7:05. She was already voter #143.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 09:47:55 AM »

Falls Church, VA is already at 39% turnout.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 09:56:13 AM »

I'm a pollworker at my local precinct and the line has been steady for the entire 3 hours we've been open.

Where do you live in Michigan?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 10:13:57 AM »

This is encouraging:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 10:26:29 AM »

If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on?

Source?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 11:53:18 AM »

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

 Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work.

Exactly, also Democrats need to win NPA's in order to win.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 11:54:19 AM »

Light turnout here in CA-25.  This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends.

I'm not sure how much you can gain from this considering how much of California is now VBM.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 11:57:38 AM »

NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.

Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks.

I thought I saw on twitter they are dropping their paywall for tonight.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 12:20:43 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 12:55:48 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 01:26:21 PM »

Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).

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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 02:12:53 PM »

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

Not sure why suburban areas that swung towards Clinton and are made up of the folks most likely to be revolted by Trump/Republicans having high turnout is a bad thing. Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 02:33:48 PM »

Democrats keep adding to the Clark County Freiwal.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 02:49:33 PM »

This is petty and fun:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 02:55:26 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 03:00:07 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2018, 03:01:13 PM by Virginiá »


Last competitive midterm in Ohio?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2018, 03:00:34 PM »

Lol

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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2018, 03:02:21 PM »



Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2018, 03:07:59 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2018, 03:08:20 PM by Virginiá »

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

I think it's being compared to the total turnout in 2010.

Yes total, like Lakeland has already passed, Cleveland and Cleveland Heights are close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2018, 03:17:07 PM »

I think I saw that they are going to start doing phone interviews so they can capture early voters.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2018, 03:23:01 PM »

Not sure if this is expectation setting

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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2018, 03:27:25 PM »

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

The Republican % continues to go down, while the Dem and NPA % slowly goes up. This is all without seeing Miami-Dade, Orange and Palm Beach.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2018, 03:36:08 PM »

Again, might be expectation setting:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2018, 03:51:57 PM »

It's looking like Clark County, NV is going to get close to 70% of total active voters.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2018, 04:20:53 PM »


Not the exit poll, but a battleground poll that's kinda like an exit poll:

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