2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191473 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1875 on: October 21, 2020, 11:22:08 AM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 21, 2020, 10:12:22 AM
Quote from: Exopolitician on October 21, 2020, 10:10:22 AM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 21, 2020, 10:06:37 AM

Im guessing PA: Biden +12 and Texas: Biden +5

Biden up 5 in Texas seems high. I bet it's more Biden +1.


Its Quinnipiac, of course it’ll be high.

Quinnipiac's polls of Texas this year have actually looked more reasonable than their polls of most other states, so I wouldn't necessarily assume that.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1876 on: October 21, 2020, 11:24:03 AM »
Quinnipiac is so garbage they'll probably have Biden +16 in Pennsylvania and Trump +6 in Texas
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #1877 on: October 21, 2020, 11:28:35 AM »
Nate Cohn should do a poll of Missouri, Florida, Mississippi and Indiana next week,cause these states haven't been polled too much lately and Florida is important of course

Quinnipiac predictions
Texas:Tied
Pennsylvania: Biden +10

People shouldnt hate on Quinnipiac, they are a good pollster that may occasionally have very favourable dem results. No different than Remington, CBS/YouGov or NYT Upshot polls
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #1878 on: October 21, 2020, 11:50:43 AM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 21, 2020, 11:28:35 AM
Nate Cohn should do a poll of Missouri, Florida, Mississippi and Indiana next week,cause these states haven't been polled too much lately and Florida is important of course

Quinnipiac predictions
Texas:Tied
Pennsylvania: Biden +10

People shouldnt hate on Quinnipiac, they are a good pollster that may occasionally have very favourable dem results. No different than Remington, CBS/YouGov or NYT Upshot polls

My knock on CBS is that they are unwilling to show large margins.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1879 on: October 21, 2020, 01:44:14 PM »
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1880 on: October 21, 2020, 01:59:39 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 21, 2020, 01:44:14 PM

Biden +1
Greenfield +3
Prediction
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1881 on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:48 PM »


Guesses?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1882 on: October 21, 2020, 02:16:16 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 21, 2020, 02:10:48 PM


Guesses?

Maybe TX. NYT tends to do states that don't get enough polls.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #1883 on: October 21, 2020, 02:25:51 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 21, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 21, 2020, 02:10:48 PM


Guesses?

Maybe TX. NYT tends to do states that don't get enough polls.
PA or IN
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1884 on: October 21, 2020, 02:34:42 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on October 21, 2020, 02:25:51 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 21, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 21, 2020, 02:10:48 PM


Guesses?

Maybe TX. NYT tends to do states that don't get enough polls.
PA or IN

Those are both possibilities as well; they haven't really polled the rust belt recently (unless we're counting IA)
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redjohn
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« Reply #1885 on: October 21, 2020, 04:09:42 PM »


Final Marquette poll of WI comes out in one week.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1886 on: October 21, 2020, 04:11:29 PM »
Watch it be Biden +5 just like the last 3
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1887 on: October 21, 2020, 04:41:11 PM »
Biden+3
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1888 on: October 21, 2020, 04:43:39 PM »
Biden +7
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1889 on: October 21, 2020, 07:47:59 PM »
KSTP/Survey USA released a poll of the MN Senate race today (Smith +1, sure) and they usually spread the results around so I would expect they are planning on releasing the Presidential numbers tomorrow. They screwed up though and you can find the presidential results in the Senate crosstabs (Biden 48-42).

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20398303/surveyusa-october-21-senate-race.pdf
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1890 on: October 21, 2020, 08:32:44 PM »
This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1891 on: October 21, 2020, 08:51:19 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:



Where was Biden up 3 in OH? Anyways, it was a pretty bad day for Trump in polls, but a little bit of a better day for Rs in the senate, though still pretty bad
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1892 on: October 21, 2020, 08:53:42 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 21, 2020, 08:51:19 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:



Where was Biden up 3 in OH? Anyways, it was a pretty bad day for Trump in polls, but a little bit of a better day for Rs in the senate, though still pretty bad

He tweeted a reply correcting the Ohio error.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1893 on: October 21, 2020, 08:54:31 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 21, 2020, 08:53:42 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 21, 2020, 08:51:19 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:



Where was Biden up 3 in OH? Anyways, it was a pretty bad day for Trump in polls, but a little bit of a better day for Rs in the senate, though still pretty bad

He tweeted a reply correcting the Ohio error.

I hadn't seen that earlier but yeah, here's said reply for anybody curious:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1894 on: October 21, 2020, 11:01:43 PM »


Small sample sizes inbound!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1895 on: October 22, 2020, 12:51:21 AM »
With 100 voters sample for every district these polls will be a) prone to wild swings, and b) almost useless.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1896 on: October 22, 2020, 06:38:08 AM »
Let's see.  Today's expected polls include NYT/Siena (KS) and Monmouth (IA-HOUSE). 

What else?
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n1240
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« Reply #1897 on: October 22, 2020, 06:41:13 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 22, 2020, 12:51:21 AM
With 100 voters sample for every district these polls will be a) prone to wild swings, and b) almost useless.

Their last set of IA CD polls actually had about n=400 each because they had an additional set of 1200 voters who were surveyed online and only given a house preference question.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1898 on: October 22, 2020, 09:37:46 AM »
OurProgress teasing a Mississippi poll released October 25 and a Montana poll released October 26.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1899 on: October 22, 2020, 09:40:40 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on October 22, 2020, 09:37:46 AM
OurProgress teasing a Mississippi poll released October 25 and a Montana poll released October 26.

Really excited for MT. MS-Sen could be close but I really don't buy it flipping under pretty much any circumstance
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