Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Person Man]

The only polls I really trust are election day polls, since the scientific polls seem to fail to capture a lot of Trump supporters. I assume Trump's real approval on election night was around 46-51 given that he lost by 4.5% in the PV. Maybe 46-52 at worst. Most pre-election polls said Trump was around -10 or -11 in approvals. Usually re-election campaigns are mostly about whether you approve or disapprove of the incumbent. I don't think Biden was a particularly good or bad candidate.


Unsure how to adjust Biden polls based on this, though. I'm just not putting too much stock into them

We don’t know if it’s a Trump thing or what. I want to see some off year races.

[It’s so Joever]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

You are right, the communist GOP party has done a great job smearing our president! There is no way at least 45% of the country isn’t succumbed to this Stalinesque propaganda by Sinclair.

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

You are right, the communist GOP party has done a great job smearing our president! There is no way at least 45% of the country isn’t succumbed to this Stalinesque propaganda by Sinclair.

What?

[It’s so Joever]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

You are right, the communist GOP party has done a great job smearing our president! There is no way at least 45% of the country isn’t succumbed to this Stalinesque propaganda by Sinclair.

What?

Do you want me to repeat myself?

[pbrower2a]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

The approval numbers are unusually high because President Biden has so far avoided having to make tough decisions that hurt large numbers of people. Contrast Donald Trump, who was extremely willing to offend a near-majority of the People from the outset. The 39% disapproval rating suggests a honeymoon. But note well: 55% approval allows as much as a 45% disapproval. Even that allows at the least a 10% gap between approval and disapproval. Anything like that at the start of the 2024 campaign implies a near certainty of re-election at election time in any statewide race.

Even with a strong economy (COVID-19 has already created pent-up demand for many things in the economy) in which real wages are rising, I cannot see President Biden getting anything more than 60% of the popular vote... because that is about what FDR did in the 1930's, LBJ did in 1964, and Nixon did in 1972. Even Reagan got only 58% of the popular vote in 1984. The Republican Party has at the minimum the floor that Landon, Goldwater, and McGovern had. They won the vote of the partisan base but got nothing more.

The border crisis is more in Texas than in Arizona. This is practically a refugee crisis, and the cause is turf wars between drug syndicates in the countries from which these people come. Extant Mexican-American cultures in America can and will assimilate those who have a true Spanish-based culture, and those who are more clearly of First Peoples culture will (ironically) fit quickly into the Anglo mainstream quickly.

The real dynamic in Arizona is the increasing influence of Mexican-Americans in the political life of Arizona. Mexican-Americans have never experienced the animus that blacks have anywhere in America. Mexican-American political life is generally more liberal -- but it is competent. Cultural assimilation goes both ways with Mexican-Americans; they can assimilate non-Hispanics into their culture.

As I say of other polls that people dislike for their results: unless you see obvious bias, then wait for another poll to confirm or deny what you just saw. I find it difficult to believe that Arizona is much more D than Michigan, Nevada, or Wisconsin, but that is what the polls indicate. The 2024 election has Joe Biden in the drivers' seat so far. He will have the power of the incumbency in his favor. He is handling COVID-19 well, and at the expense of any Republican who has promoted a "let the good times roll" attitude. Governor Ducey did that, and his state has paid later... with loan-shark interest, so to speak, with the Grim Reaper collecting lives like a loan-shark collects principle and far more interest. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

50-52 is in fact still quite far from Trump's approval rating at this (or any other) point in his presidency. Try harder.

If you look at more unbiased polls, it actually wasn’t.

You could argue that explicitly GOP-friendly polls like Rassy and Trafalgar ended up being more accurate in some ways due to accounting for muh shy Trump effect or whatever, but the idea that they were less biased is facially absurd. The people who ran these polls went on Fox News constantly during the campaign and in Rassy's case explicitly supported Trump's attempts to overturn the results once he lost.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 27-30, 1500 adults including 1259 RV

Adults:

Approve 48 (-2)
Disapprove 40 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

RV:

Approve 50 (-1)
Disapprove 43 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 35 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

50-52 is in fact still quite far from Trump's approval rating at this (or any other) point in his presidency. Try harder.

If you look at more unbiased polls, it actually wasn’t.

You could argue that explicitly GOP-friendly polls like Rassy and Trafalgar ended up being more accurate in some ways due to accounting for muh shy Trump effect or whatever, but the idea that they were less biased is facially absurd. The people who ran these polls went on Fox News constantly during the campaign and in Rassy's case explicitly supported Trump's attempts to overturn the results once he lost.

In the end, how well a pollster predicts the election boils down to what model of the electorate applies. Pollsters such as PPP and Quinnipiac had models that assumed that Democrats would do final-weeks electioneering that they usually do. Democrats in Michigan had succeeded in making their electoral database less vulnerable to Russian hacks; they simply could not canvas for votes in 2020 out of fear of COVID-19. Such canvassing is good for getting late voters to the polls. Democrats did not do that in 2020.

I expect Democrats to do this in 2022. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I definitely think it's gonna be a 3.5 Election our max in the Senate is 3 not 8 and we still can hold the House in a neutral cycle.

It's gonna be close either way not a landslide, any Approvals showing a landslide and Covid is rising and we are still on in a Pandemic is wrong.

We won the PVI by 8 in 2018 and our Election resurrected the EC blue wall, that is what's gonna happen in 2022, too. IL, MI, WI and PA, not OH, IA or FL

[pbrower2a]

I definitely think it's gonna be a 3.5 Election our max in the Senate is 3 not 8 and we still can hold the House in a neutral cycle.

It's gonna be close either way not a landslide, any Approvals showing a landslide and Covid is rising and we are still on in a Pandemic is wrong.

We won the PVI by 8 in 2018 and our Election resurrected the EC blue wall, that is what's gonna happen in 2022, too. IL, MI, WI and PA, not OH, IA or FL

At this point that is all our best guess. To suggest otherwise is to suggest a dynamic that has yet to manifest itself.   

[Lief 🗽]

THANK YOU AMERICA!

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1377331531195146240?s=21

[Horus]

THANK YOU AMERICA!

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1377331531195146240?s=21

Very solid. So long as immigration doesn't become the number 1 issue again after COVID is over, midterms might not be so bad.

[ꙮ]

THANK YOU AMERICA!

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1377331531195146240?s=21

Very solid. So long as immigration doesn't become the number 1 issue again after COVID is over, midterms might not be so bad.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but there are like 100 things that can go wrong before then. Losing the midterms is the norm and it takes an exceptionally good situation to avoid it. Here's hoping.

[It’s so Joever]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a 3.5 Dem Election it's not gonna be D+8 at least not yet Nelson leads 48-44 that's not a landslide in WI.

Like previous pollster says it's not a landslide 60 pt Approvals Biden Approvals are at 53 percent

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

Polls are useful tools that provide value but have limitations.  Yes, people shouldn't believe in poll results without question.  But dismissing them completely is just as unwise.

[roxas11]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

You don't need to look at a poll in order to see that the Trump was a far more controversial and despised figure during his first year in office than Joe Biden currently is right now.

At this same time in 2017 it felt like I could not go anywhere without everybody around me talking about the latest trump tweet or controversy. Even my co-workers who voted for Trump told me that they wished that he would focus more on doing the job of president and tweet less

So far I simply not seeing the same level of hate for Joe Biden that I saw for Trump, Obama or even Hillary in 2016. Trust me people around here are not shy about attacking Dems and if Biden really was facing a growing backlash among voters or if he did became as hated as Trump was than I would have seen evidence of it by now

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

Oh look, another self-appointed authority who knows more than professional pollsters.

*plonk*

Professional pollsters who are wrong about everything and thought Biden would win Wisconsin by 17.

I ordinarily roll my eyes in the face of Trumpist boasting like here, but they have been more than validated here after two consecutive presidential elections with inaccurate, misleading polling.

However, considering how much more accurate (though still imperfect) polls were in 2018, without Trump directly on the ballot, it's still possible that he is the main reason why polls are skewed in the elections he is featured in. I suppose we'll get a better idea in 2022, as Angry_Weasel said, but for now polls should still be taken with a grain of salt, but not the heaping pounds that Trump supporters want us to take them with. The fact of the matter is that Biden's approvals are above water, even at the barest minimum with all the error in the world being taken into account.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

You don't need to look at a poll in order to see that the Trump was a far more controversial and despised figure during his first year in office than Joe Biden currently is right now.

At this same time in 2017 it felt like I could not go anywhere without everybody around me talking about the latest trump tweet or controversy. Even my co-workers who voted for Trump told me that they wished that he would focus more on doing the job of president and tweet less

So far I simply not seeing the same level of hate for Joe Biden that I saw for Trump, Obama or even Hillary in 2016. Trust me people around here are not shy about attacking Dems and if Biden really was facing a growing backlash among voters or if he did became as hated as Trump was than I would have seen evidence of it by now

Yes, we were promised in 2020 by AOC a Supermajority Senate and D's lost the wave insurance seats. pbower2A said that D's are gonna win IA Senate, if Grassley stays he is a safe bet to win reelection

The Ds won the PVI by 3.1 in 2020 and D's won the PVI by 8 2018 and still lost OH, IA and FL Gov, DeSantis can lose in a large enough wave but as far as Senate it will be 53/47 and OH and NC can substitute for GA


PVI is probably gonna be somewhere around D+3.5 not 8

These rosey 60 percent poll should not be taken that much into account

[wbrocks67]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

Polls are useful tools that provide value but have limitations.  Yes, people shouldn't believe in poll results without question.  But dismissing them completely is just as unwise.

Should also be mentioned that polls actually nailed Biden's % of the vote in 2020. They didn't do that well on Trump's %, but they nailed Biden voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds were supposed to have a Supermajority Senate and they failed, and they said D's were gonna have 230 seats in House, we aren't in a Prez race we are in a Congressial Midterm

Maggie Hassan and WARNOCK may lose, She is down to Sununu by double digits and WARNOCK is Vulnerable too

Landslide Lyndon predicted an AOC Supermajority Senate

Covid cases are riding again, that isn't good news to Congressial Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guest since WARNOCK and Hassan trailing, there is no need for a Rosey map today 60 percent Approvals, Covid cases are rising. Biden had a Great Honeymoon, but it's reality now

[pbrower2a]

Puquinniac poll, Pennsylvania:

Biden approval 59%, disapproval 43%

Fort Worth Journal-Gazette, Indiana:

Biden approval 45%, disapproval 43%

Fort Wayne Sta-Telegram, Texas:

Biden approval 45%, disapproval 46%

Ernest Hemingway High School, Michigan:

Biden approval 54%   disapproval 41%

Nebraska, Loof-Lipra polling:

Biden approval 40%, disapproval 47%

1st district, 38-52
2nd district  53-38
3rd district, 27-56

No comments? These were Aril Fools' jokes. Fort Wayne is in Indiana and Fort Worth is in Texas.

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey: Stockton, related to a gubernatorial race.

1. Approve/disapprove Joe Biden

53% approve (35% strongly), 37% disapprove (32% strongly)

16. Do you believe that the 2020 election was done fairly and accurately?
64% agree (58% strongly); 34% disagree (28% strongly). 

17. Do you support the continuation of voting by mail?

58% agree (49% strongly) 40% oppose (35% strongly)


https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2021-0331-spring-politics-poll-frequencies.pdf 

No April Fools polls.  

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 31-April 1, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (nc)

Note: 538 has this incorrectly posted as 53/37.  Edit: they've fixed it.