UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Coldstream]

The problem is that having public p political views very quickly devolves into the Monarch picking sides when a Government is being formulated- it’s worth remembering George V played a huge role in creating the National Government in the 1930s.

The powers we give to the Monarch are so vast- the ability to dissolve Parliament, dismiss Ministers, appoint virtually every senior official and command the armed forces, that we really don’t want them engaged in a political battle with the Government especially when 50% of the time it would be with a Labour Government.

I like the optimism!

[Coldstream]

Some concerning events in Leicester recently which aren't being 'elaborated' on by the press. Which is probably write damaging in the short term.

What's going on in Leicester?

Communal violence in the eastern end of the city. It's hard to be sure of many details because the reporting has been so patchy and vague, which is neither good nor helpful. The BBC have suggested a correlation between a 20/20 Cricket match between India and Pakistan at the end of August.* Wouldn't be the first time, but this is nastier than usual.

_{*Leicester's Muslims are largely Gujarati in origin - thus 'Indian' on the census rather than 'Pakistani' - but Cricket support is often not really about nationality for obvious reasons.}

The RSS street gang are alleged to be involved on the Hindu side. But I’d be wary of overreacting to this *yet*. From what I’ve heard from people in Leicester it’s more akin to Belfast style marching than the open warfare some people are describing it as. Though I think it has the potential to turn very nasty very quickly.

It’s also not a purely “Leicester” problem, since people seem to be coming in from Birmingham and farther afield to join in, which increases the chance of it turning violent.

[Coldstream]

The one thing the Tories have going for them is that Nigel Farage has no interest in electoral politics anymore. If he did, and he decided to fight the next election as a hard right populist party they’d be facing oblivion - not merely defeat.

[Coldstream]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

I cannot comment specifically on Lee Anderson- but his type really wouldn't be that unique among local councillors especially in areas such as Ashfield where Labour were virtually the only meal ticket & where the opposition were the Lib Dems (and later an independent residents group)

There use to be a breed of CLP activists & local councillors in the North-East who considered the Conservatives soft on social issues while still being considered as being on the 'left' of Labour.

Yeah just like how until very recently (or at least the late 80s) posh people joined the Tories despite being centrist or progressive, working class people tended to join the Labour Party despite how reactionary they were. People like Anderson were pretty common across the midlands, North & Scotland until very recently. Brexit, Corbyn and the independence debate in Scotland largely resulted in them being culled - but there are no doubt some still around.

Anderson in particular was thrown out for being racist to Romanis, although that’s not exactly unique in his part of the world even for the Labour Party now.

[Coldstream]

Chris Matheson, Labour MP for the City of Chester has resigned, following the ruling of an ethics committee, recommending he be suspended from the Commons for a month.

Right decision, this is a seat that could be competitive for the Tories (won in 2010) but in the present circumstances should be a landslide hold.

[Coldstream]

Curiously enough, Brian does have a deliberately non-posh nickname (used largely by his wife), though it isn't Brian, it's Fred. He, in turn, calls he Gladys. Meanwhile, his uncle the late and unlamented Edward VIII/Duke of Windsor was always known in his family as 'David', even though that was not his name. But this sort of thing is common enough with properly posh people even outside the Royal Family: Anthony Wedgwood Benn is best known to us as Tony, was usually known by colleagues as Wedgwood before the 1970s... but (and this is the relevant part) was called Jimmy by members of his family for his entire life. I have no idea why they do this either.

To be fair, David was one of his names (though he had 7)

[Coldstream]

Curiously enough, Brian does have a deliberately non-posh nickname (used largely by his wife), though it isn't Brian, it's Fred. He, in turn, calls he Gladys. Meanwhile, his uncle the late and unlamented Edward VIII/Duke of Windsor was always known in his family as 'David', even though that was not his name. But this sort of thing is common enough with properly posh people even outside the Royal Family: Anthony Wedgwood Benn is best known to us as Tony, was usually known by colleagues as Wedgwood before the 1970s... but (and this is the relevant part) was called Jimmy by members of his family for his entire life. I have no idea why they do this either.

To be fair, David was one of his names (though he had .

Seven, Edward Albert Christian George Andrew Patrick David.

Corrected! It’ll teach me to scan read.

[Coldstream]

Not sure how long Braverman lasts. While this storm will (probably) pass, I still struggle to see her lasting the full parliament. Patel could be inflammatory, but she also had an off-button. Braverman has been a fire-starter for so long (literally building her political brand around it). I think she's going to make Sunak the third PM in a row to live to regret appointing her (see her announcing a leadership campaign from within Johnson's cabinet, and crippling Truss' authority at the end of an already damaging day).

If you come into office, and even the Lib Dems have decent material pre-written (“Glad to see the Home Office now believes in the rehabilitation of offenders”), things aren't exactly off to a great start.

Fourth I’d argue, since she resigned from May’s government too at the same time as Raab.

Braverman follows in a long tradition of people promoted for their ability to attract publicity rather than to get things done.

I think this reshuffle shows a surprising lack of strength from Sunak, restoring Braverman & retaining Cleverly despite their uselessness is a big move - I’d have bet on Simon Clarke staying ahead of those two for the symbolism of a Red Wall MP in the cabinet. He also only promoted a handful of loyalists: Harper, Stride being the only two without recent cabinet experience - and the others like Shapps, Jenrick, Dowden & Williamson all got lower offices than they’d have felt entitled to.

I suspect he’s aiming for it to be like Starmer’s original shadow cabinet, just about ensuring short term stability and he’ll reshuffle out Braverman, Cleverly, Coffey & perhaps demote Hunt in the new year - but it’s a surprising line up to me.

[Coldstream]

I think one way Sunak has stored up trouble for himself is leaving it ambiguous about who is actually second in command, Raab has the title but it’s obviously empty - but Dowden, Gove & Williamson all have roles that will require them to work/coordinate across government - and will likely cause them to clash with one another/each others remits. A recipe for dysfunction.

[Coldstream]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

Sunak is also the second PM ever, to go directly from the backbenches to Prime Minister (Johnson was the first). Before that when PM’s changed mid Parliament it was always a minister who took over.

[Coldstream]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

I’ve been canvassing for our locals in May for the last two months, I’ve only had 1 person raise the boat crossings - this was in a traditional Tory seat that went hard to the Lib Dems in 2019. But as it’s only 1 person I’m not sure you can draw any conclusions about the demographics of people who care, other than that very few do.

[Coldstream]

Back in 2011 one of Farage’s aides accused Bridgen of sexual assault. It never went anywhere (iirc they were actually retracted) but I’ve always heard theres bad blood between those two ever since. This would explain why they’ve never worked/campaigned together that closely despite being in more or less total alignment.

[Coldstream]

So - weird development in the Bridgen affair. He's released a video statement attacking the Conservatives for suspending him - stating that he's *not* antisemitic, and doubling down on the antivax rhetoric.

Thing is - he didn't release the statement himself. It was published by the Reclaim Party (the vehicle set up by Lawrence Fox during his COVID-skeptic midlife crisis in 2020), and then shared by Bridgen on social media.

Bridgen ends by pledging to fight for his views, even if he "can't do this from within the Conservative Party". So, Conservatopia might have been right about a defection, but a tad to the left of the actual party Bridgen was aiming for.

Might just be a *threat* (not that I'm sure Sunak would be that sad to lose Bridgen), but a bit of political theatre nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/thereclaimparty/status/1613555611719061508
(Sidenote: would be vaguely amusing/surreal/ironic if Reclaim, who've never registered in national polling, got an MP before Reform)

Reclaim is probably a better fit for most of the culture war red wall types. They don’t really care about Thatcherite economics in the way that Farage & Tice do.

[Coldstream]

Spent the day on the doors and not a single person mentioned trans rights or Scottish constitutional law. I have serious doubts this issue will have any cut through.

Despite a lot of shouting on trans rights from politicians & the media desperate for a culture war, most people’s view is “trans people should be allowed to be/do what they want, I don’t really care”. And they care even less about the ins and outs of devolution.

[Coldstream]

And they care even less about the ins and outs of devolution.

Where were you door knocking?

Because I doubt if that is true of Scotland at least - the SNP engineered this for a reason.

I'm sorry, the SNP did not engineer this. They set out to amend the GRA at the same time the Tories under May, were planning to make the same changes until they ditched them. It was the longest and most intensely consulted piece of legislation in Holyrood history because it got caught up in the culture war. It was supported by all parties (bar the Tories) and passed by all these parties in December, including Labour amendments on the basis that there was an inkling the UK Gov were going to do just this.

Yeah this is a Tory problem, it’s very unfair of you to blame the SNP - the legislation should be (and I’d say is) innocuous, they couldn’t have foreseen this happening well in advance.

[Coldstream]

Just out of curiosity I was reading about Respect Party and I'm wondering if they are still active and what are the factional politics like to the left of Labour since Corbyns departure in general?

RESPECT dissolved in the Corbyn years and several people associated with it tried to enter Labour (Salma Yaqoob most notably/successfully). Galloway set up a new party called the Workers Party, which he leads but is effectively a front for the insane Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist Leninist), it was under this brand that he ran in the Batley & Spen by-election.

Respect was a product of its time, a union between Islamists & Communists who were aligned in opposition to the war on terror, but they were never the most comfortable bed fellows for obvious reasons - aside from hating America & Israel they didn’t really have much in common.

Chris Williamson has joined up with TUSC, which is the descendant of Militant and (I believe?) still headed by former Militant MP Dave Nellist. I don’t think he’s expressed any interest in actually doing anything like stand for office etc.

In practise, there isn’t much of an organised movement to the left of Labour. People like Galloway & Williamson were always more interested in speaking to the converted than actually doing things - and are *probably* too tainted to ever come back to parliament - but stranger things have happened.

Those who are interested in actually doing things (say, Matt Zarb-Cousin) seem to be going (back) to the Greens - which may get interesting down the line since in many places the Greens (like the Lib Dem’s 1997-2010) run more as an opposition to established parties than as a particularly left wing one. But in my experience, most of those Corbynites who were involved at the local level have either quit politics or switched focus on less partisan campaigns. I doubt we’ll see something that even rises to RESPECT’s levels of support anytime soon.

[Coldstream]

Just out of curiosity I was reading about Respect Party and I'm wondering if they are still active and what are the factional politics like to the left of Labour since Corbyns departure in general?

RESPECT dissolved in the Corbyn years and several people associated with it tried to enter Labour (Salma Yaqoob most notably/successfully). Galloway set up a new party called the Workers Party, which he leads but is effectively a front for the insane Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist Leninist), it was under this brand that he ran in the Batley & Spen by-election.

Respect was a product of its time, a union between Islamists & Communists who were aligned in opposition to the war on terror, but they were never the most comfortable bed fellows for obvious reasons - aside from hating America & Israel they didn’t really have much in common.

Chris Williamson has joined up with TUSC, which is the descendant of Militant and (I believe?) still headed by former Militant MP Dave Nellist. I don’t think he’s expressed any interest in actually doing anything like stand for office etc.

In practise, there isn’t much of an organised movement to the left of Labour. People like Galloway & Williamson were always more interested in speaking to the converted than actually doing things - and are *probably* too tainted to ever come back to parliament - but stranger things have happened.

Those who are interested in actually doing things (say, Matt Zarb-Cousin) seem to be going (back) to the Greens - which may get interesting down the line since in many places the Greens (like the Lib Dem’s 1997-2010) run more as an opposition to established parties than as a particularly left wing one. But in my experience, most of those Corbynites who were involved at the local level have either quit politics or switched focus on less partisan campaigns. I doubt we’ll see something that even rises to RESPECT’s levels of support anytime soon.

Williamson joined the Socialist Labour Party, not SPEW d/b/a TUSC. he said it was because so many people told him what we need is a **socialist** labour party

According to the Socialist Party (main contingent of TUSC) he joined them https://www.socialistparty.org.uk/articles/31633/12-11-2020/ex-mp-chris-williamson-joins-tusc/

[Coldstream]

Just out of curiosity I was reading about Respect Party and I'm wondering if they are still active and what are the factional politics like to the left of Labour since Corbyns departure in general?

RESPECT dissolved in the Corbyn years and several people associated with it tried to enter Labour (Salma Yaqoob most notably/successfully). Galloway set up a new party called the Workers Party, which he leads but is effectively a front for the insane Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist Leninist), it was under this brand that he ran in the Batley & Spen by-election.

Respect was a product of its time, a union between Islamists & Communists who were aligned in opposition to the war on terror, but they were never the most comfortable bed fellows for obvious reasons - aside from hating America & Israel they didn’t really have much in common.

Chris Williamson has joined up with TUSC, which is the descendant of Militant and (I believe?) still headed by former Militant MP Dave Nellist. I don’t think he’s expressed any interest in actually doing anything like stand for office etc.

In practise, there isn’t much of an organised movement to the left of Labour. People like Galloway & Williamson were always more interested in speaking to the converted than actually doing things - and are *probably* too tainted to ever come back to parliament - but stranger things have happened.

Those who are interested in actually doing things (say, Matt Zarb-Cousin) seem to be going (back) to the Greens - which may get interesting down the line since in many places the Greens (like the Lib Dem’s 1997-2010) run more as an opposition to established parties than as a particularly left wing one. But in my experience, most of those Corbynites who were involved at the local level have either quit politics or switched focus on less partisan campaigns. I doubt we’ll see something that even rises to RESPECT’s levels of support anytime soon.

Williamson joined the Socialist Labour Party, not SPEW d/b/a TUSC. he said it was because so many people told him what we need is a **socialist** labour party

According to the Socialist Party (main contingent of TUSC) he joined them https://www.socialistparty.org.uk/articles/31633/12-11-2020/ex-mp-chris-williamson-joins-tusc/

Check the date on that, he left and joined the SLP a few months back.

Can’t find anything online about this, aside from an article saying he met with Scargill. Can you share your source? Wikipedia still lists him as a TUSC member.

[Coldstream]

Yeah if we do get 50% nationally in the next election, we’ll probably be the largest party in Scotland again - at least in terms of seats.

[Coldstream]

This day keeps getting better and better.

[Coldstream]

After a full fourteen hours, the tweet where the UK Prime Minister talks about "the UK's modern slavery system" is still up. I suppose this also classifies as thinking voters are morons? I just have no words.

Sark abolished feudalism in 2008, so the UK is very modern.

Sark isn’t part of the UK.

[Coldstream]

Lineker may be the British equivalent of #resistance liberals in the US, and his politics are superficial & sophomoric…

But the BBC have behaved shamefully here; the corporation that used the world service to broadcast messages of defiance against the Nazis, that’s been banned in Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe etc is cowering in the face of the bruised egos of the Tory government. It’s pathetic, disgraceful and heads need to roll starting with Sharpe & Bruce.

[Coldstream]

Lineker may be the British equivalent of #resistance liberals in the US, and his politics are superficial & sophomoric…

But the BBC have behaved shamefully here; the corporation that used the world service to broadcast messages of defiance against the Nazis, that’s been banned in Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe etc is cowering in the face of the bruised egos of the Tory government. It’s pathetic, disgraceful and heads need to roll starting with Sharpe & Bruce.

Football-gate means that some have likely missed just how disgraceful her Thursday night comments actually were - Johnson Snr is a multiple domestic abuser, this has been LEGALLY CONFIRMED.

She actually has some sinecure on an anti-DV charity as well FFS.

Is it true her husband is a Tory party donor?

She has previously been criticised for going too hard against fathers 4 justice back in 2004 by bringing up domestic violence out of context, ignoring the rights and wrongs of that then, the fact she went from that to dismissing it in 20 years is indicative of how far down the Tory rabbit hole she’s fallen.

[Coldstream]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

Yeah if the Greens started winning more than 2 seats, after Bristol West it’s likely they’d be winning places like Totnes, Stroud, Frome, Lewes, Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types - before a repeat of the Lib Dem’s 2005/2010 support in student places.

Then it’d probably be more like ecologist votes in Europe, leafy shire areas that don’t want more development but are sick of the Tories.

[Coldstream]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

Yeah if the Greens started winning more than 2 seats, after Bristol West it’s likely they’d be winning places like Totnes, Stroud, Frome, Lewes, Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types - before a repeat of the Lib Dem’s 2005/2010 support in student places.

Then it’d probably be more like ecologist votes in Europe, leafy shire areas that don’t want more development but are sick of the Tories.

The strength of Labour in both Stroud and Calder Valley is likely to impede any Green hopes there - the other seats you mention, where Labour is weak and has been for a long time, are more like it.

I said “if”. Though really they aren’t that far behind in Stroud on a local government level - it’s hardly inconceivable than in a protest to an unpopular Labour government they come through.