UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

I was struck this past weekend during the interview circuits how brazenly shameless Starmer is as a politician, how he's likely to be the next PM but also that it's a really big weakness going into a GE to be known as someone who either won't commit, or will drop specific policy pledges without blinking.

He has no beliefs.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I did wonder how many other issues were like this- broadly iirc there’s support in polls for the policy, there was once a broad political consensus on it but a number of activists across party political lines (broadly!) managed to really whip up the opposition and would have support from the broadsheets and tabloids.

I know gay marriage was one where MPs had hundreds of letters against it which weren’t really representative of political opinion!

I’ve generally ignored the gender reform debate given how poisonous it is, but I’m pretty sure there’s been Scottish polls showing opposition to it/large parts of it (how accurate and unbiased I don’t know). From polling more generally I think politicians have found themselves ahead of the public on transgender rights (the opposite of gay marriage). It’s very much a niche issue that the public don’t really care about (as you say, it’s mostly a few activists and newspapers), but insofar as they do they tend to oppose self-ID and some of the more ‘radical’ proposals, while backing the general ethos of be nice to transgender people and let ‘genuine’ transgender people get on with their lives in their gender identity.

What limited polling there is is also consistent with the theory that people frequently don't understand exactly what they're being asked about and are somewhat guessing in their responses.

[Zinneke]

I was struck this past weekend during the interview circuits how brazenly shameless Starmer is as a politician, how he's likely to be the next PM but also that it's a really big weakness going into a GE to be known as someone who either won't commit, or will drop specific policy pledges without blinking.

He has no beliefs.

"I disagree with his beliefs so he has no beliefs"

A classic.

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment, he believes that nothing should stand in the way of Labour winning the next GE.

Yes, that is a fair assessment at present.

The question is, does he have any deeper philosophy to guide him when in government? His critics say not and this is a major reason why he will be a disaster in power. I think they could yet be wrong.

[afleitch]

At the moment, he believes that nothing should stand in the way of Labour winning the next GE.

Yes, that is a fair assessment at present.

The question is, does he have any deeper philosophy to guide him when in government? His critics say not and this is a major reason why he will be a disaster in power. I think they could yet be wrong.

That's what I'm mean.

He'll do anything, adopt anything, dump anything to win a GE (even though he might not have to) There's no grand narrative; he doesn't ever articulate what he wants the country to be.

[Torie]

At the moment, he believes that nothing should stand in the way of Labour winning the next GE.

Yes, that is a fair assessment at present.

The question is, does he have any deeper philosophy to guide him when in government? His critics say not and this is a major reason why he will be a disaster in power. I think they could yet be wrong.

That's what I'm mean.

He'll do anything, adopt anything, dump anything to win a GE (even though he might not have to) There's no grand narrative; he doesn't ever articulate what he wants the country to be.

Is it possible to have a party manifesto that is devoid of substantive content? At least that would give the House of Lords more to do potentially as I understand the "arcanities" of the UK system. .

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but is that just because he believes a "grand narrative" would give the Tories a chance to scare people and thus making winning an election harder? Depressing, but very possibly true.

Again, a lot of it is down to our dreadful shallow horse race obsessed media.

A better politics begins with a significant clearout there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was what used to be called a 'libertarian socialist' as a young man, and as he aged and moderated (as people do) the fundamental way of thinking remained, but turned into something close to an unironic belief in Vox Populi, Vox Dei and the idea of the State as a servant of the Public. That's the constant and consistent thread.

[LabourJersey]

Yes, but is that just because he believes a "grand narrative" would give the Tories a chance to scare people and thus making winning an election harder? Depressing, but very possibly true.

Again, a lot of it is down to our dreadful shallow horse race obsessed media.

A better politics begins with a significant clearout there.

The zero sum game of electoral politics in two-party countries is a big factor here. Starmer possibly (probably?) doesn't want to provide the sort of Grand Narrative that Labour wants because a detailed vision of Britain can include plenty of things to attack.

Part of me feels it's asymmetric (since the Tories are hardly a bastion of new ideas), but then again the Tory manifesto in 2017 with all those stupid policies did hurt them. Though I think it's hard to separate how much of their underperformance in 2017 was policy based versus May utterly failing as a campaigner.

[Silent Hunter]

Starmer has to produce something though unless he wants to be a single-term PM. Because some of his moves have annoyed the left and unless he gets a big majority, they will cause him problems.

[MABA 2020]

Be interesting to see if he shows a bit more of a vision as the election gets a bit closer. We're in an awkward period at the moment where Labour can see victory in the horizon, but the horizon is still at minimum 18 months away and the tide could, in theory at least, still turn against them. So I understand playing safe at present.

[NewYorkExpress]

A London Police Officer has admitted to almost fifty offenses, including 24 counts of rape in the past eighteen years.

A serving officer in London’s Metropolitan Police has admitted to 49 offenses, including 24 counts of rape over an 18-year period, reigniting calls for urgent reform in the United Kingdom’s largest police force.

David Carrick appeared at Southwark Crown Court in the British capital Monday to plead guilty to four counts of rape, false imprisonment and indecent assault relating to a 40-year-old woman in 2003, the UK’s PA Media news agency reported.

At the Old Bailey criminal court in London last month, Carrick admitted to 43 charges against 11 other women, including 20 counts of rape, between March 2004 and September 2020, according to PA.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but is that just because he believes a "grand narrative" would give the Tories a chance to scare people and thus making winning an election harder? Depressing, but very possibly true.

Again, a lot of it is down to our dreadful shallow horse race obsessed media.

A better politics begins with a significant clearout there.

The zero sum game of electoral politics in two-party countries is a big factor here. Starmer possibly (probably?) doesn't want to provide the sort of Grand Narrative that Labour wants because a detailed vision of Britain can include plenty of things to attack.

Part of me feels it's asymmetric (since the Tories are hardly a bastion of new ideas), but then again the Tory manifesto in 2017 with all those stupid policies did hurt them. Though I think it's hard to separate how much of their underperformance in 2017 was policy based versus May utterly failing as a campaigner.

To a significant extent, the latter. But yes, there was also the widespread sentiment that the massive Tory poll lead going into the GE meant they could put literally anything in the manifesto and still get a big win. Tbf this belief had some historical backing - notably the Tories put the poll tax centre stage of their 1987 offering (despite some advice not to) and still triumphed despite Labour attempts to make it an issue during the campaign. The difference may have been the right wing press not running with it to bash the Tories then, whereas they did with the "dementia tax".

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I was struck this past weekend during the interview circuits how brazenly shameless Starmer is as a politician, how he's likely to be the next PM but also that it's a really big weakness going into a GE to be known as someone who either won't commit, or will drop specific policy pledges without blinking.

He has no beliefs.

Looking in from outside, it does have a touch of déjà vu. 🇦🇺

[Cassius]

Labour ran on a ‘big target’ manifesto in 2019 and that was generally identified as one of the main reasons as to why voters turned away from the party in that election (some way behind Corbyn’s leadership and to a lesser extent Brexit, but it was still a factor), so it’s not surprising that Labour would adopt more of a ‘small target’ approach this time round. On the other hand, Labour have come out with a number of ‘big target’ pledges on green issues and the constitution (which in my opinion are pretty ropey but then I’m hardly the target audience), so there may well be more eye catching policies unveiled before the next election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It does need to be emphasized that, with things as they are, 'I want public services to work again ' is a big offer as far as most of the electorate are concerned, even if it comes across to most people who follow politics intensely as incredibly labour_party.txt.

[afleitch]

Some very real splits emerging in Scottish Labour today, particularly regarding the devolution settlement
Even if it's more of a millstone around their necks in recent years, you can't say it's not a monolith that lacks their commitment.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1615424214810431506?s=46&t=KBwy7Q6w76...

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1615424214810431506?s=46&t=KBwy7Q6w76...

‘Stats for Lefties’ proving that nomen est omen by badly miscalculating the percentages for Other.

[Alcibiades]

I have to say, as someone in one of the few constituencies where both the Lib Dems and Labour have a decent shot at winning, this whole episode has made me much likelier to vote for the former vis-a-vis the latter. I’ve generally been reasonably positive on Starmer’s leadership, but this has been pretty shameful stuff from him.

[JimJamUK]

It does need to be emphasized that, with things as they are, 'I want public services to work again ' is a big offer as far as most of the electorate are concerned, even if it comes across to most people who follow politics intensely as incredibly labour_party.txt.

My assumption is that they’re holding back on firm commitments so that they can promise a lump of cash for public services come the actual election, but launching a House of a lords reform plan in the middle of a cost of living crisis does suggest I may be giving them a little too much credit.

[Coldstream]

Spent the day on the doors and not a single person mentioned trans rights or Scottish constitutional law. I have serious doubts this issue will have any cut through.

Despite a lot of shouting on trans rights from politicians & the media desperate for a culture war, most people’s view is “trans people should be allowed to be/do what they want, I don’t really care”. And they care even less about the ins and outs of devolution.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is a rather dry and technical matter but does need pointing out in order to avoid misconceptions: there was no vote on the implementation of the Section 35 order, which is purely a matter for the Secretary of State. The vote was a symbolic one - '...this House has considered the decision...' - that always follows an Emergency Debate under Standing Order 24.

[TheTide]

Bradshaw in a minority of 11 with McDonnell and Sultana is quite funny.

[CumbrianLefty]

As is a certain ex-Labour MP not voting (yes I know about pairing, but still)