UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Academic qualification don't seem to correlate much with intelligence of Politician's, Richard Burgon has a degree from Cambridge. Thérèse Coffey who famously admitted to giving leftover antibiotics to friends has a PHD in chemistry.

It's almost like being good at writing papers, taking tests, and running experiments is a wholly different skill set and personality trait than sagacity or common sense!

I mean you would expect somebody from a STEM background to have at least heard about antibotic resistance, or maybe have read about it especialy after becoming health minister regardless of their personal skills but apparently that's a bridge too far.

[Torrain]

Been thinking a bit this evening about this:

Sunak's deal with the right is "let me do the economics and you can have your culture war / immigration headlines". Problem is if liberal voters hate the authoritarianism and authoritarians hate the economics.....

Even if it's a bit simplistic (and the language a little strong), I wonder if there's a good point in there.

Cameron's social liberalism, environmentalism etc helped bring the 'Blue Wall' seats in play (even expanding the coalition to include now out-of-reach seats in places like Bath, and Richmond Park). Johnson dialled some of that back, but endulged in economic populism that enabled an expansion of the coalition to include 'Red Wall' seats.

I can see how Sunak arrived here - through a combination of his own fiscal conservatism, and the need to mollify the "Common Sense Group" types who put "anti-woke" politics at the centre of their agenda.

But, ditching both of those, while maintaining Cameroon austerity with Johnsonian culture war nonsense, feels like a mistake - one that could threaten the two weakest links in the chain comprising the 2019 coalition.

[MaxQue]

Academic qualification don't seem to correlate much with intelligence of Politician's, Richard Burgon has a degree from Cambridge. Thérèse Coffey who famously admitted to giving leftover antibiotics to friends has a PHD in chemistry.

Female chemistry graduates should probabley be banned from seeking office after seeing Coffey, Thatcher and Merkel.

[Sestak]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

[Torrain]

The Braverman debacle seems to be leading the news for another day - both Zahawi and Cleverly are stumbling over it on the media round this morning on the BBC and Sky.

Jake Berry, the just-sacked Party Chairman stoked the fire last night when he pitched up on TalkTV, and disputed the narrative about the Braverman firing. Braverman and the PM have stated she “made a mistake, owned up and resigned”. Berry asserts that she was caught and confronted with multiple breaches of the ministerial code, which forced her hand.

An additional wrinkle is that Braverman was apparently embroiled in an MI5-guided enquiry into government leaking back in January when she was Attorney General (story broken by the Mail, so pinch of salt).

According to the Times, MI5 will now be giving her lessons on what information she can share, and teaching her not to breach security in future. A tad embarrassing.

Party unity on the issue is starting to strain - beyond Jake Berry, Mark Pritchard (who sat on the Intelligence and Security Commission until recently) has issued a coded statement that suggesting Braverman’s post is untenable. And Caroline Nokes has called for a full enquiry.

I assume the cabinet will still try to ride it out (firing Braverman would completely undermine the whole “safe pair of hands” narrative they’re trying to set about Sunak), but it’s an unforced error that’s still bleeding them credibility and now some of their political capital.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume this is an awkward situation for everyone involved. Braverman herself is an icon of the right of the party, but other people of similar persuasion might want to take shots at her as a way of getting to Rishi. Lose-lose factional infighting at its best.

[YL]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

You would expect the gap to narrow a bit further, but the "new" government seems to have got off to a bit of a rocky start - apart from the self-inflicted Braverman sore spot, proceedings in the HoC have been delayed today because Morduant was detained in the other chamber. Sunak has now made quite a few of the more junior appointments, but it seems a deputy Commons leader wasn't amongst them.

[Torrain]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984
Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

Guess it all depends on what the numbers look like over the next 2-3 weeks.

Does Sunak claw back significantly more support during this relative lull? Especially given the improved economic forecast and reduced gas prices are expected to make his next month a little easier than Truss was bracing for...

Or does any goodwill get buried by the challenges coming over the next month (the Braverman controversy, Johnson's Privileges investigation, the Johnson/Truss Resignation Honours, followed by the winter crunch on cost of living and the NHS, and the spending cuts).

Definitely interested to see what bounce he gets in the other trackers too - will be keeping an eye out for the Redfield & Wilton tracker at 17.00 tonight.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

[Coldstream]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

Sunak is also the second PM ever, to go directly from the backbenches to Prime Minister (Johnson was the first). Before that when PM’s changed mid Parliament it was always a minister who took over.

[MillennialModerate]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

I truly hope Sunak doesn’t survive the winter and 10 Downing Street continues being a revolving door that kills the Tories

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone want to have a vote on ostracizing that irritating troll from this thread?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

Your dooming has gone international, I see… although the fact that you say their best case scenario is a victory says something…

[Torrain]

Relevant:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1585662618634784769

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Does anyone want to have a vote on ostracizing that irritating troll from this thread?

I came here to see whats going on there, not see this guy rant about how the lefts doomed

[Liminal Trans Girl]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984
Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

a 28% lead is still far better than the Lead they held before Truss

[MillennialModerate]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984
Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

a 28% lead is still far better than the Lead they held before Truss

Of course it is. But acting like a lead that ballooned in 3 weeks is going to last 2 years is silliness.

God forbid I say that out loud … the ultra tolerant crowd wouldn’t like it

[CumbrianLefty]

You seem to think that everything is rosy in the Tories garden save for "bad leadership".

Its not, the underlying objective economic and political circumstances are very poor for them.

That doesn't mean they can't pull significant ground back from their nadir, just like they did pre-1997. But doing more than that is a real ask, and might well require some sort of "black swan" event.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Relevant:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1585662618634784769

RISHIMENTUM

[Silent Hunter]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

Sunak is also the second PM ever, to go directly from the backbenches to Prime Minister (Johnson was the first). Before that when PM’s changed mid Parliament it was always a minister who took over.

Yep. Churchill had been in the political wilderness, but he'd returned as First Lord of the Admiralty when war was declared.

[Joe Republic]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

Sunak is also the second PM ever, to go directly from the backbenches to Prime Minister (Johnson was the first). Before that when PM’s changed mid Parliament it was always a minister who took over.

The fact that Rishi Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer until only two and a half months before becoming PM, and that the above facts are still true, only shows what a bizarre period it's been.

[Torrain]

Slightly morbid thought. Given the typical tour typically lasts at least three months - I wonder whether Truss’ letter of last resort was ever placed on a patrolling Vanguard submarine, or whether it’ll skip straight from Johnson to Sunak…

[Earthling]

So here’s a fun tidbit: Sunak is the second PM since 1900 (the other is Churchill) to take over from a predecessor of the same party but not serve in a Great Office of State under that predecessor.

Sunak is also the second PM ever, to go directly from the backbenches to Prime Minister (Johnson was the first). Before that when PM’s changed mid Parliament it was always a minister who took over.

Maybe in modern times. In the past it was not unusual.