UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

Lid Truss is joining the speaking circuit.

It still feels like Westminster has no idea how to actually process or think about her- it’s so remarkable to be a two month prime minister, flame out during an economic crisis and just to get forgotten. The Conservatives want to pretend she never happened and it all just seems so well weird.

[Earthling]

Lid Truss is joining the speaking circuit.

It still feels like Westminster has no idea how to actually process or think about her- it’s so remarkable to be a two month prime minister, flame out during an economic crisis and just to get forgotten. The Conservatives want to pretend she never happened and it all just seems so well weird.

I assume Labour will make her prominent again once the campaign begins for next years election.

Johnson, Truss and Sunak as the unholy trinity of Conservative mismanagement.

[Conservatopia]

She's still the prime minister of my heart. ❤

[CumbrianLefty]

22 Tory rebels on Windsor, including the MP for Windsor, and both the last two PMs.

https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1504#noes

Not all that many No votes. But a lot more startling when you note that 48 abstained (including members who participated in the debate, like Theresa Villiers).

Sunak only managed to get 280/355 Tory MPs to vote for the framework…

Yes the significant number of no-shows do seem to have been rather overlooked in some accounts of this vote - at best it is a qualified success for Sunak (even if its not great for Johnson either)

[Torrain]

One day, Sunak will take a diplomatic photo, in which he doesn’t appear to have been photoshopped to appear tiny. But today is not that day:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1638956667563016192

[Coldstream]

I would be cautious about being too reductive as university seat=Green. Plenty of seats filled with students and not particularly great Green results (e.g. Manchester Gorton and Central, several London seats) and plenty of high Green votes in other random places. Normally (but not always) towns and locales with an alternative vibe are a great place for Green votes - the sort of place hippies retire to or artisanal types set up shop (the Isle of Wight, Stroud, Glastonbury, Bury St Edmunds, the Forest of Dean) - amd even then you've got to explain relatively dull places like Solihull and North Herefordshire (?) where Greens have captured a niche.

Yeah if the Greens started winning more than 2 seats, after Bristol West it’s likely they’d be winning places like Totnes, Stroud, Frome, Lewes, Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types - before a repeat of the Lib Dem’s 2005/2010 support in student places.

Then it’d probably be more like ecologist votes in Europe, leafy shire areas that don’t want more development but are sick of the Tories.

The strength of Labour in both Stroud and Calder Valley is likely to impede any Green hopes there - the other seats you mention, where Labour is weak and has been for a long time, are more like it.

I said “if”. Though really they aren’t that far behind in Stroud on a local government level - it’s hardly inconceivable than in a protest to an unpopular Labour government they come through.

[CumbrianLefty]

Stroud DC's last elections were in 2021 - not a great year for Labour - however.

(they used to elect by thirds but do so every four years now)

[Torrain]

So, err, this doesn't seem great:
https://twitter.com/TalkTV/status/1638980967074283520
She's explicitly re-using all the terms other Johnson loyalists employed, and that the Privileges Committee called out as unacceptable during the hearing, and several backbenchers have described as "contempt of parliament". It's almost like she's trying to do some kind of Thelma and Louise tribute act, and crash alongside Johnson.

I wonder whether she's thought about the impact this would have on the House of Lords Appointment Commission, who are presumably still reviewing her peerage. 

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit odd she "only" absented herself from Wednesday's vote rather than voting against.

[Joe Republic]

So, err, this doesn't seem great:

"Friday Night with Nadine"?  Indeed, it seems terrible.

[MayorCarcetti]

So, err, this doesn't seem great:

"Friday Night with Nadine"?  Indeed, it seems terrible.

Big downgrade from Friday Night with Jonathan Ross I got to say...

[Blair]

His very expensive legal team know that there is no way of taking any other action to stop the committee or MPs- they’ve said so several times!

[Blair]

Lots of very confident chatter from various Tories about Sunak doing well and how he’s actually going to win.

It’s weird because it’s obvious to see how he narrows the gap but winning is still v difficult.

[YL]

Two recent changes of PM means two resignation honours lists, and here come stories about the other one: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/24/liz-truss-requests-peerages-for-some-of-her-closest-tory-supporters

[Torrain]

Yeah, been some weird analysis on Tory chances this week - almost felt like some sort of consensus was being reached in certain corners of Fleet Street. Not denying Sunak can narrow the gap - he surely will. But, the level of confidence on display, strikes me as vaguely, well.

Not sure which was weirder - a confident Evening Standard article (written by David Cameron's sister in law) predicting Tory victory, or a Times discussion between Matt Chorley and James Johnson, which ended with them convinced the next election will result in a hung parliament, thanks to Sunak's personal appeal winning over the public.

It's a bit surreal - the voting intention numbers showing Labour with a 10-20% lead are always dismissed as "soft" or "shallow", while the fact that "who'd make the best PM" comes down to about a 2% margin between Starmer/Sunak is always elevated as an iron-cast reflection of a close race.

Emily Maitlis interviewed a "polling expert" this week who announced that you can reverse-engineer election results from the past three local elections, and cited the 2021 local elections as a surefire sign that Labour can't expect to lead the vote share by more than a few percentage points. Because no realigning events have occured since May 2021...

[Torrain]

Two recent changes of PM means two resignation honours lists, and here come stories about the other one: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/24/liz-truss-requests-peerages-for-some-of-her-closest-tory-supporters

Liz Truss giving a life peerage to the head of the IEA, the body whose ideas tanked her premiership, and is one of the main reasons she's putting a resignation honours list together in the first place. Incredibly on-brand. But what a choice.

[JimJamUK]

Emily Maitlis interviewed a "polling expert" this week who announced that you can reverse-engineer election results from the past three local elections, and cited the 2021 local elections as a surefire sign that Labour can't expect to lead the vote share by more than a few percentage points. Because no realigning events have occured since May 2021...

Absolutely correct, that’s why our Aussie friends in NSW have just delivered a landslide victory to the Coalition after a terrible by-election result for Labor in Upper Hunter in 2020.

Have you got the name of this astute individual?

[Torrain]

Have you got the name of this astute individual?

James Kanagasooriam - which is a shame, because he’s usually better than this. Of all the media-friendly pollsters produced by think-tanks, he’s typically one of the more sober.

I think there’s a sort of Nate Silver thing going on. A good pollster does not necessarily a good pundit make.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The idea that General Elections are applied local elections is the sort of error you usually associate more with particularly partisan-and-or-delusional LibDems...

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of very confident chatter from various Tories about Sunak doing well and how he’s actually going to win.

It’s weird because it’s obvious to see how he narrows the gap but winning is still v difficult.

Its a classic of the "if we say it enough it somehow might just happen" genre.

What is interesting is that there was far, *far* more of this sort of thing pre-'97 than is now generally remembered. Right up until literally days before the election!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is interesting is that there was far, *far* more of this sort of thing pre-'97 than is now generally remembered. Right up until literally days before the election!

I remember Michael Portillo going on like this on the television a couple of days before polling day and Child Me being concerned enough about this (I know...) to ask my Dad if it were true. He laughed and said, no, they were going to get smashed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is interesting is that there was far, *far* more of this sort of thing pre-'97 than is now generally remembered. Right up until literally days before the election!

I remember Michael Portillo going on like this on the television a couple of days before polling day and Child Me being concerned enough about this (I know...) to ask my Dad if it were true. He laughed and said, no, they were going to get smashed.

Extra shades of humor here, considering that Michael Portillo of all people was saying this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember Michael Portillo going on like this on the television a couple of days before polling day and Child Me being concerned enough about this (I know...) to ask my Dad if it were true. He laughed and said, no, they were going to get smashed.

Extra shades of humor here, considering that Michael Portillo of all people was saying this.

It did add to the amusement later, yes...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If in the next election the Tories get smashed as badly as they did in 1997, how many current ministers would lose?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Emily Maitlis interviewed a "polling expert" this week who announced that you can reverse-engineer election results from the past three local elections, and cited the 2021 local elections as a surefire sign that Labour can't expect to lead the vote share by more than a few percentage points. Because no realigning events have occured since May 2021...

Absolutely correct, that’s why our Aussie friends in NSW have just delivered a landslide victory to the Coalition after a terrible by-election result for Labor in Upper Hunter in 2020.

Tbf we’ve still held Upper Hunter lmao. Shades of Ripon 2018, amidst an urban shellacking a rural seat on a wafer thin sun 1% majority just doesn’t budge. And indeed most of the rurals don’t budge either.