European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Final results now in 13 countries, provisional in 14 and 1 estimate (Ireland).

Turnout: 51% (1% higher than in the US midterms). Without the UK probably around 53-54%.

https://www.election-results.eu

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

Kelly (FG) was elected on count 9, with the candidates from Heaney downwards now eliminated.  The order of the candidates hasn't changed from above.

After count 12 Wallace has overtaken Kelleher, and the situation is
Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 87,569
Kelleher (FF) 87,036
Ní Riada (SF) 82,933
O'Sullivan (Green) 80,115
Byrne (FF) 72,133
Clune (FG) 67,274
Doyle (FG) 40,014
Nunan (Lab) 23,849
Wallace (PBP) 17,398
Cahill (Ind) 15,466
Minehan (Ind) 12,770 eliminated

My guess is that Wallace (I4C), Kelleher (FF) and Clune (FG) get the next three seats, and that O'Sullivan (Green) gets the Brexit-conditional one.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

Count 9:

McGuinness (FG) elected and surplus transferred
Flanagan (Ind) 91,747
Carthy (SF) 82,921
Walsh (FG) 74,116
Casey (Ind) 61,616
McHugh (Green) 58,642
Smith (FF) 45,235
Rabbitte (FF) 32,714
Eames (Ind) 20,410 eliminated

This looks like the top four are going to get in, so SF hold one seat.

[Mike88]

Elections maps from Portugal:

Biggest party by municipality:


PS vote % by municipality:


PSD vote % by municipality:


CDU vote % by municipality:


and.. PAN vote % by municipality:


More maps here.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Why is there such a collapse for Labour and the Tories, while the useless moderate heroes Liberal Democrats doing so well?

[Tintrlvr]

Why is there such a collapse for Labour and the Tories, while the useless moderate heroes Liberal Democrats doing so well?

Because Labour and the Tories tried to be useless moderate heroes on Brexit while the Lib Dems did not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It wasn't a normal election at all: it ended up being a symbolic vote on the Brexit issue for those sufficiently motivated by it (turnout was low, naturally), and the two main parties both, idiotically and suicidally, didn't bother seriously campaigning and as good as signaled that it was fine to sit the poll out.

[DavidB.]

The percentage of female MEPs from the Netherlands will increase from 34.6% to 46.2%.

Since the 2017 GE, the campaign "vote for a woman" has been pretty successful in the Netherlands. Before this election, many women voted for a female candidate who was sure to be elected (usually at #2 on the list), thereby not affecting the percentage of women in elected bodies. The campaign clearly advocates for voting for a female candidate on the list of your party of choice below the number of seats that polls project "your" party to win. If enough people do so, female candidates reach the preference threshold (25% of a seat for parliamentary elections) and are elected instead of people higher up the list - and then you have to hope it's not a woman who is replaced, as has happened quite a few times too. It is also disproportionately left-wing voters doing this, causing left-wing parties to have representations that lean even more female while not affecting the imbalance in right-wing parties as much.

This time, three women at a theoretically unelectable spot were elected with preference votes. Kim van Sparrentak (GL, #7) will replace another woman for the third GL seat, namely Eline van Nistelrooij (#3). But two female candidates will replace male candidates: Samira Rafaela (D66, #3) replaces Raoul Boucke (#2) and VVD candidate Liesje Schreinemacher (#5) replaces Bart Groothuis (#4). Both Rafaela and (especially) Schreinemacher had very visible personal campaigns (as opposed to Groothuis and Boucke), so definitely not just 'strategic' voting in these cases.

Another interesting case was that CU candidate Anja Hage (#3) received a lot of preference votes too (both because of her sex and, presumably, because CU voters wanted to vote in a second CU candidate). Tricky, because CU and SGP ran together and the second seat would belong to the SGP. In the end it didn't matter because SGP candidate Bert-Jan Ruissen at #2 received even more preference votes than Hage, but it was pretty close. Wonder what would have happened if Hage had received more votes than Ruissen, since CU-SGP still wouldn't have enough votes for two seats without all those SGP voters. It could also have affected group formation: with two seats, CU would have a stronger claim in trying to keep FVD (3 seats) out of ECR.

[Andrea]

MEPs elected in Italy (open lists)

Lega (28+1 after Brexit): Matteo Salvini x 5 (he was up in all regions), Angelo Ciocca MEP, Silvia Sardone, Isabella Tovaglieri, Danilo Lancini MEP, Gianna Gancia, Stefania Zambelli, Alessandro Panza, Marco Zanni MEP, Mara Bizotto MEP, Gianantonio Da Re, Poalo Borchia, Alessandra Basso, Elena Lizzi, Marco Dreosto, Susanna Ceccardi, Antonio Rinaldi, Anna Bonfrisco, Simona Baldassarre, Luisa Regimenti, Massimo Casanova, Andrea Caroppo, Lucia Vuolo, Valentino Grant, Annalisa Tordino,

Given Salvini won't take up any of his seats, the following candidates will be also be elected: Marco Camponesi, Rosanna Conte, Matteo Adinolfi (only after Brexit), Vicenzo Sofo, Francesca Donato

PD (19): Giuliano Pisapia, Irene Tinagli, Pierfrancesco Majorino, Patrizia Toia MEP, Brando Benifei MEP, Carlo Calenda, Elisabetta Gualmini, Paolo De Castro MEP, Alessandra Moretti, Simona Bonafè MEP, Pietro Bartolo, David Sassoli MEP, Massimiliano Smeriglio, Franco Roberti, Giuseppe Ferrandino MEP, Andrea Cozzolino MEP, Pina Picierno MEP, Caterina Chinnici MEP

Bartolo has been elected both in Centre and Islands. Those waiting for his option are Roberto Gualtieri MEP (chairman of Economy Committee) (Centre) or Andrea Soddu (Islands)

5 Stars (14): Eleonora Evi MEP, Tiziana Beghin MEP, Marco Zullo MEP, Sabrina Pignedoli, Fabio Castaldo MEP, Daniela Rondinelli, Chiara Gemma, Laura Ferrara MEP, Piernicola Pedicini MEP, Rosa D'Amato MEP, Isabella Adinolfi MEP, Mario Furore, Dino Giarrusso, Ignazio Corrao MEP.

Forza Italia (6+1 after Brexit): Silvio Berlusconi x 3, Massimiliano Salini MEP, Antonio Tajani MEP, Salvatore De Meo, Aldo Patriciello MEP (after Brexit seat but maybe immediately if Berlusconi opts for another region)

Waiting for Berlusconi's decision on which region he will sit for: Laura Comi MEP (North West), Fulvio Martusciello MEP (South and in his case waiting also for Brexit), Giuseppe Milazzo (Islands)

Fratelli di Italia (5+1 after Brexit): Giorgia Meloni x5 , Carlo Fidanza

Assuming Meloni doesn't take her seat(s): Piero Fiocchi, Sergio Berlato (only after Brexit), Nicola Procaccini, Raffaele Fitto MEP, Raffaele Stancanelli

SVP (1): Herbert Dorfmann MEP

MEP indicates incumbents.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I notice that the current EFDD group only has MEPs from 3 countries (Brexit Party, 5 Stars and AfD) They need 7 countries to form a group. Not certain they will be able to do it.

AfD will go to EAPN. EFDD's fate is very uncertain. Farage hates Le Pen but can't join ECR either (Tories).

TIL Farage and Le Pen don’t like each other.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I notice that the current EFDD group only has MEPs from 3 countries (Brexit Party, 5 Stars and AfD) They need 7 countries to form a group. Not certain they will be able to do it.

AfD will go to EAPN. EFDD's fate is very uncertain. Farage hates Le Pen but can't join ECR either (Tories).

TIL Farage and Le Pen don’t like each other.

Farage currently seems very concerned with staying above the fray of overt racism, although I don't know enough about him to discount the possibility that that's a new thing for him after UKIP's far-right turn.

I could see a rational case for the Tories going to EPP and the Brexit Party going to ECR, but I couldn't see it happening in actual political reality.

[Tender Branson]

Nice Austria maps down to the local level and with party strength, now showing the final results:

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html?apaview=election:eu

Click on Bundesländer (= states), Bezirke (= districts) or Gemeinden (= towns/cities).

Then select Hochburgen (= party strongholds) and select a party below the map.

Beteiligung = turnout.

---

Party transfers (2014 -> 2019):

https://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2019_EUW_WaehlerstroemeEUW.pdf

---

Election motives and how groups voted:



https://www.sora.at/en/topics/electoral-behavior/election-analyses/euw19-en.html

https://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2019_EUW_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

[Tender Branson]

This is brutal:

* men without high education
* men with high education (x Tender)
* women without high education
* women with high education

[M0096]

MEPs elected in Poland:

PiS (ECR) 26 seats + 1 after Brexit:
1 pomorskie: Anna Fotyga
2 kujawsko-pomorskie: Kosma Złotowski
3 podlaskie+warmińsko-mazurskie: Karol Karski, Krzysztof Jurgiel
4 mazowieckie (part): Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Ryszard Czarnecki
5 mazowieckie (part): Adam Bielan, Zbigniew Kuźmiuk
6 łódzkie: Witold Waszczykowski, Joanna Kopcińska
7 wielkopolskie: Zdzisław Krasnodębski, Andżelika Możdżanowska
8 lubelskie: Beata Mazurek, Elżbieta Kruk
9 podkarpackie: Tomasz Poręba, Bogdan Rzońca
10 małopolskie+świętokrzyskie: Beata Szydło, Patryk Jaki, Ryszard Legutko, Dominik Tarczyński (after Brexit)
11 śląskie: Jadwiga Wiśniewska, Izabela Kloc, Grzegorz Tobiszowski
12 dolnośląskie+opolskie: Beata Kempa, Anna Zalewska
13 zachodniopomorskie+lubuskie: Joachim Brudziński, Elżbieta Rafalska

KE (EPP/S&D) 22 seats:
1 pomorskie: Magdalena Adamowicz, Janusz Lewandowski
2 kujawsko-pomorskie: Radosław Sikorski
3 podlaskie+warmińsko-mazurskie: Tomasz Frankowski
4 mazowieckie (part): Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (S&D), Danuta Hübner, Andrzej Halicki
5 mazowieckie (part): Jarosław Kalinowski
6 łódzkie: Marek Belka (S&D)
7 wielkopolskie: Ewa Kopacz, Leszek Miller (S&D)
8 lubelskie: Krzysztof Hetman
9 podkarpackie: Elżbieta Łukacijewska
10 małopolskie+świętokrzyskie: Róża Thun, Adam Jarubas
11 śląskie: Jerzy Buzek, Jan Olbrycht, Marek Balt (S&D)
12 dolnośląskie+opolskie: Janina Ochojska, Jarosław Duda
13 zachodniopomorskie+lubuskie: Bartosz Arłukowicz, Bogusław Liberadzki (S&D)

Wiosna (Spring) (S&D) 3 seats:
4 mazowieckie (part): Robert Biedroń
7 wielkopolskie: Sylwia Spurek
11 śląskie: Marcin Kohut

[Gustaf]

Swedish Liberals now at 4.00% so exactly on the threshold. There seems to be more rural than urban areas counted so far though so they still look on track to make it in.

[Former President tack50]

Swedish Liberals now at 4.00% so exactly on the threshold. There seems to be more rural than urban areas counted so far though so they still look on track to make it in.

Why is Sweden still counting? I thought elections didn't take that long to count?

[Ethelberth]

Finnish MEPs

SDP (S&D)

Eero "Goebbels" Heinäluoma, long-time Trade Union official, who turned later SDP leader.

Mia-Petra Kumpula-Natri.  First generation EU-era politicians since nineties.

NCP (EPP)

P. Sarvamaa, former reporter of YLE  who predicted Trump winning on early stage of presidental  contest. Belongs to libertarian wing of party.

H.Virkkunen Katainen-era minister and former minister.

S. Pietikäinen, belongs to left wing of the party, former minister in nineties.

Kesk (ALDE)

M. Pekkarinen, symbol of classical Centre party politician, who used to be MP over 40 years.

E. Katainen, Savonian farmer, rather typical Centre party carrier politician.

SFP ( ALDE)

N. Torvalds. Former communist turned NATO-supporter, Grandfather of Linux.

Greens (GRN-AFE)

H. Hautala , firstish generation Green politician. Has been in some sort of parliament since 1991.

V. Niinistö, nephew of president from Turku, belongs to academic, and enviromentalist wing of party.

PS (EAPN)

L. Huhtasaari, pro-Trump and alt-right poltician, who has found quite a new niche, in Finnish political climate.

T. Hakkarainen, PS states-man and strategist.

[Andrea]

French MEPs

names underlined are incumbents re-elected

Rassemblement National: M. Jordan BARDELLA ,Mme Hélène LAPORTE ,M. Thierry MARIANI, Mme Dominique BILDE, M. Hervé JUVIN, Mme Joëlle MELIN, M. Nicolas BAY, Mme Virginie JORON, M. Jean, Paul GARRAUD, Mme Catherine GRISET, M. Gilles LEBRETON, Mme Maxette PIRBAKAS-GRISONI, M. Jean-François JALKH, Mme Aurélia BEIGNEUX, M. Gilbert COLLARD, Mme Julie LECHANTEUX, M. Philippe OLIVIER, Mme Annika BRUNA, M. Jérôme RIVIÈRE, Mme France JAMET, M. André ROUGÉ, Mme Mathilde ANDROUËT, M. Jean-Lin LACAPELLE (last one only with Brexit)


EnMarche & Co: Mme Nathalie LOISEAU,  M. Pascal CANFIN, Mme Marie-Pierre VEDRENNE
M. Jérémy DECERLE, Mme Catherine CHABAUD, M. Stéphane SÉJOURNÉ ,Mme Fabienne KELLER, M. Bernard GUETTA, Mme Irène TOLLERET, M. Stéphane BIJOUX, Mme Sylvie BRUNET, M. Gilles BOYER
Mme Stéphanie YON-COURTIN, M. Pierre KARLESKIND, Mme Laurence FARRENG, M. Dominique RIQUET, Mme Véronique TRILLET-LENOIR M. Pascal DURAND, Mme Valérie HAYER, M. Christophe GRUDLER, Mme Chrysoula ZACHAROPOULOU, M. Sandro GOZI, Mme Ilana CICUREL (last 2 only with Brexit)

Greens: M. Yannick JADOT, Mme Michèle RIVASI, M. Damien CARÊME, Mme Marie TOUSSAINT
M. David CORMAND, Mme Karima DELLI, M. Mounir SATOURI, Mme Caroline ROOSE, M. François ALFONSI, Mme Salima YENBOU, M. Benoît BITEAU, Mme Gwendoline DELBOS-CORFIELD, M. Claude GRUFFAT (last one only with Brexit)

Republicains: M. François-Xavier BELLAMY, Mme Agnès EVREN, M. Arnaud DANJEAN, Mme Nadine MORANO, M. Brice HORTEFEUX, Mme Nathalie COLIN-OESTERLÉ, M. Geoffroy DIDIER, Mme Anne SANDER

France Insoumise: Mme Manon AUBRY, M. Manuel BOMPARD, Mme Leïla CHAIBI, M. Younous OMARJEE, Mme Anne-Sophie PELLETIER, M. Emmanuel MAUREL

Socialists & co: M. Raphaël GLUCKSMANN, Mme Sylvie GUILLAUME, M. Éric ANDRIEU, Mme Aurore LALUCQ, M. Pierre LARROUTUROU, Mme Nora MEBAREK (last one only with Brexit)

So 75% of the 2019-24 intake is indeed new

[Gustaf]

Swedish Liberals now at 4.00% so exactly on the threshold. There seems to be more rural than urban areas counted so far though so they still look on track to make it in.

Why is Sweden still counting? I thought elections didn't take that long to count?

I think it's primarily because we allow voting by mail and overseas etc on election day. And I think the election authorities recount all the votes once those ballots are added to the total. Typically it doesn't change the counted election night result very much though.

Liberals are now down to 3.88% with 3736/6305 precincts in. But that's actually kind of an improvement for them - lots of rural areas came in and they're actually hitting their targets there fairly well (then again they're so weak there it would be hard to do worse). Half of Stockholm region is still outstanding and I think that should pretty comfortably be enough to put them over.

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

Kelly (FG) was elected on count 9, with the candidates from Heaney downwards now eliminated.  The order of the candidates hasn't changed from above.

After count 12 Wallace has overtaken Kelleher, and the situation is
Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 87,569
Kelleher (FF) 87,036
Ní Riada (SF) 82,933
O'Sullivan (Green) 80,115
Byrne (FF) 72,133
Clune (FG) 67,274
Doyle (FG) 40,014
Nunan (Lab) 23,849
Wallace (PBP) 17,398
Cahill (Ind) 15,466
Minehan (Ind) 12,770 eliminated

My guess is that Wallace (I4C), Kelleher (FF) and Clune (FG) get the next three seats, and that O'Sullivan (Green) gets the Brexit-conditional one.

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

[Tender Branson]

Candidates with the most preference votes in Austria:



If Strache takes his EU seat, Petra Steger will be left without a seat. She’d get in if he refuses.

If Strache takes his EU seat, we would have a 10-8 male delegation. If he refuses, it’s 9-9. The ÖVP and Neos have a majority-female group and the Greens are balanced.

On the other hand it could be that the Green lead candidate Werner Kogler also refuses to take his seat, because the Greens want him as their frontrunner for September after his more than successful campaign. In this case, the Greens would have 2 female representatives.

[Tender Branson]

The 4 Pirates from the Czech Republic + Germany will join G/EFA.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Former President tack50]

Any reason for that particular political geography that isn't "Former German Empire+Warsaw"? (You can also see the usual rural vs urban divide of course)

[Tender Branson]

South-East Poland = Oklahoma, or worse.