European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Vosem]

Why did the FvD do so poorly in the Netherlands, since they just placed first at a midterm and parties with a hard stance on European integration usually do better at European Parliament elections? Also, what's up with that one municipality (Asten) that voted for 50PLUS?

[Dan the Roman]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Based on everything that's in so far, however, it's 3 SNP 1 LibDem 1 Green 1 Tory

I think those numbers are off. Based on BBC results it looks like 3 SNP 1 Brexit 1 Tory 1 LD. Greens look pretty conclusively behind Brexit which is in 2nd in Scotland.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Based on everything that's in so far, however, it's 3 SNP 1 LibDem 1 Brexit 1 Tory

It would be an absolute disaster for Labour if they finished below Tories in Scotland when the Tories are at 9% nationwide.

[Former President tack50]

Final results from Portugal:

33.4% PS (+1.9), 9 seats (+1)
21.9% PSD, 6 (nc)
  9.8% BE (+5.2), 2 (+1)
  6.9% CDU (-5.7), 2 (-1)
  6.2% CDS, 1 (nc)
  5.1% PAN (+3.4), 1 (+1)
  1.9% Alliance (new), 0
  1.8% Livre (-0.4), 0
  1.5% Basta! (+0.6), 0
  1.0% NC (new), 0
  0.9% IL (new), 0
  0.8% PCTP (-0.9), 0
  0.5% PNR (nc), 0
  0.5% PDR (new), 0 (-1)
  0.4% PURP (new), 0
  0.3% PTP (-0.4), 0
  0.2% MAS (-0.2)
  7.0% Blank/Invalid

31.4% Turnout (-2.3)

By EU parties: PES - 33.4%, 9 seats (+1); EPP - 28.1% 7 seats (nc); GUE-NGL - 16.7%, 4 seats (nc); EGP - 5.1%, 1 seat (+1)

How on Earth did the Animal right's party manage to get a seat?

I get there are 2% of Portuguese who care enough for animals to give them a national seat or 2, but 5% seems quite high? (and also not predicted by polls I think?)

[Dan the Roman]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Based on everything that's in so far, however, it's 3 SNP 1 LibDem 1 Brexit 1 Tory

It would be an absolute disaster for Labour if they finished below Tories in Scotland when the Tories are at 9% nationwide.

They have

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19QT5Hddz6W8ex4juQHAOv9tZdP5lWb8foJ4_atT8J-M/edit#gid=1331867871

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the brain genius move of not bothering to actually campaign in these elections but run candidates anyway was not so clever? Wow. Shock.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132784126757613569

Bunga, bunga, I guess.

[Andrea]

Malta full results with all transfers

https://electoral.gov.mt/ElectionResults/MEP

Elected

Dalli, Miriam (Labour) first count
Metsola, Roberta (PN) first count
Sant, Alfred (Labour) stage 14
Casa, David (PN) stage 21
Agius Saliba, Alex (Lab) stage  39
Cutajar, Josianne (Lab) stage 39

So 4 to 2 compared to 3-3 last time

[Jahiegel]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Rather more the Presbyterians, no?

[vileplume]

Nice to see a comfortable remain block in the Southeast. Proof that suburban trends are global and unstoppable.

A deeply stupid post even by your extremely low standards.

I was obviously kidding, although it is obvious that the UK is moving towards the same metropolitan/hinterland political divide as the USA, and the Home Counties are no longer what they once were.

Well that would only be true if Britain's two main political parties became the Lib Dems and the Brexit party, which I don't think it's a revelation to say is not going to happen. It's possible parts of the Home Counties will become a bit less blue but it's worth remembering that they only became so heavily Tory in the first place as recently ago as 2015 with the collapse of the Lib Dems who always had a pretty solid vote there even if they only ever managed to win a couple of seats there.

Plus don't extrapolate this election which was fought entirely over one issue with the Tories and Labour barely featuring onto a national election in which it will be mainly Tory vs. Labour and will feature a whole host of other issues beyond attitudes towards EU.

[Beagle]

Bulgaria, just 50% or so of the official count done

GERB (EPP) - 30.76% - 6 seats (nc)
BSP (S&D) - 25.32% - 5 seats (+1)
DPS (ALDE) - 12.78% - 2 seats? (-2)
VMRO (ECR) - 8.23% - 2 seats (nc)
DB (EPP?) - 7.20% - 2 seats? - (+1)

With Sofia, where GERB is over 10% in front of BSP and DB is at 15%, being ahead in the count, though, the second DB seat is almost certainly going to go to DPS, which would result in a result that almost exactly mirrors the 2014 one - just one seat will have switched from DPS to BSP. Turnout was poor, but we won't know how poor exactly until tomorrow, the 28th.

Romania (96% of precincts in):
PNL (EPP)- 26,88% - 10 seats (-1*)
PSD (S&D?)- 23,50% - 9 seats (-7)
Alliance 2020 USR - PLUS (ALDE) - 21,15% - 7 seats (new)
PRO România (S&D/ECR?)- 6,62% - 2 seats (new)
PMP (EPP?) - 5,64% - 2 seats (nc)
UDMR (EPP) 5,49% - 2 seats (nc)

* compared to the combined PNL+PDL in 2014

Quite a bad result for the ruling PSD, who were betting that the retired, and only the retired, would turn out (like in 2016). With their allies in government ALDE (the Romanian party) falling under the threshold, the government of Viorica Dăncilă is looking doomed, Liviu Dragnea is presumably going to appoint another figurehead very soon, possibly even this week.

Edit: apparently the Pro Romania delegation will split, with one going to S&D and one - to ECR, lol

[Antonio the Sixth]

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

[Beezer]

What 2 decades can do to party systems...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, Korwin actually under 5%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What 2 decades can do to party systems...

So, that means this emo guy made to the parliament?

[YL]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Rather more the Presbyterians, no?

Yes.  The northern islands (Lewis and Harris, which is one island with different names for its two parts, and North Uist) have a strong Sabbatarian tradition; until not that long ago there were no ferries to the islands on Sundays, and there are still signs in some areas asking people not to use playgrounds on Sundays.  The southern islands, Barra and South Uist, are Catholic and AIUI tend to be more relaxed about this, but most of the population is in the north, including Stornoway where the council is based and so presumably where the count will be happening.

Anyway, there aren't that many votes there, so we know that Scotland will have elected 3 SNP and 1 each Brexit Party, Lib Dem and Tory.  So the overall result for UK excluding NI will be

Brexit Party 29 seats (32% of the vote)
Lib Dems 16 seats (20% of the vote)
Labour 10 seats (14% of the vote)
Green 7 seats (12% of the vote)
Tories 4 seats (9% of the vote)
SNP 3 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat

I think Ipsos-MORI win the pollsters' contest (they had 35% Brexit Party, 20% Lib Dem, 15% Labour, 10% Green, 9% Tory); Survation were closest on the Brexit Party share, but over-estimated Labour and the Tories and under-estimated the Lib Dems and Greens.

[Tirnam]

France - final results

RN - 23.31% - 22 seats - 23 after Brexit
LREM - 22.41% - 21 seats - 23 after Brexit
EELV - 13.47% - 12 seats - 13 after Brexit
LR - 8.48% - 8 seats
LFI - 6.31% - 6 seats
PS - 6.19% - 5 seats - 6 after Brexit

Turnout: 50.12%

[Andrea]

Italy
61,539 out of 61,576 polling stations reported


Lega 34.27
PD 22.73
5 Stars 17.06
Forza Italia 8.78
Fratelli d'Italia 6.45

[Ethelberth]

In Finland were are represented by superb Teuvo Hakkarainen, claimed parlamentarian and PS states-man. He shall serve us well.

[freek]

Why did the FvD do so poorly in the Netherlands, since they just placed first at a midterm and parties with a hard stance on European integration usually do better at European Parliament elections? Also, what's up with that one municipality (Asten) that voted for 50PLUS?

1st candidate of 50PLUS lives in Asten.

FvD probably scored relatively poorly because it seems to have taken over most of the PVV-voters, but hardly anyone else. FvD had some internal conflicts last 2 months, and voters apparently did feel comfortable with the alt-right tendencies of FvD-leader Thierry Baudet, and the Nexit-views of the party.

[DavidB.]

We did end up bigger than GL in the end, by 3.000 votes, which means the three post-Brexit seats would go to VVD (5th seat), PVV (1st seat) and FVD (4th seat). Full results here. More than 10% of the vote went straight to the bin. Good reminder for those who seek to introduce an electoral threshold on the national level.

As for why FVD underperformed: turnout was always going to be disproportionately lower among eurosceptics compared to the PS election, which required a flawless GOTV operation in addition to positioning ourselves in a way that also attracts CDA and VVD voters who aren't necessarily too hot on Nexit, which is as unpopular as the plague at this point. Both didn't occur. The controversy surrounding Baudet's essay on Houellebecq probably didn't help either, especially among female voters. I think the essay was brilliant but the timing wasn't.

[YL]

Only Dublin has any counts declared yet in Ireland, north or south.

Count 7, 4 seats to be elected but the last candidate elected won't take their seat unless/until Brexit happens, quota 72,790

Cuffe (Green) 64,853
Fitzgerald (FG) 59,448
Andrews (FF) 51,997
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 43,400
Boylan (SF) 40,045
Gannon (Soc Dem) 21,002
White (Lab) 18,942
Durkan (FG) 16,733
Brien (PBP) 11,730
Higgins (Ind) 11,434
O'Doherty (Ind) 8,661
Gilroy (Ind) 8,511
Harrold (PBP) 5,607 eliminated

Still quite a lot of eliminations to go.  I assume Cuffe and Fitzgerald will be in and it may be between Daly and Andrews for who is elected third and fourth.

(RTE results link, which covers Northern Ireland as well: https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/european )

[Andrea]

Germany  seats allocation

CDU/CSU 29 seats
Greens 21
SPD 16
AFD 11
Linke 5
FDP 5
Die Partei (2.4%) 2
Freie Whaler (2.2%) 2
Tierschutzpartei (1.4%) 1
ODP (1%) 1
Piraten (0.7%) 1
Familie (0.7%) 1
VOLT (0.7%) 1


Die Partei is Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative. They already had 1 MEP in 2014-19.
They are a satirical outfit.

Freie Whaler is up from 1 to 2. They sit with ALDE

Tierschutzpartei is Party Human Environment Animal Protection. Their previous MEP sat in GUE but he has left the party during the 2014-19 parliament

ODP is Ecological Democratic Party. They sat with the Green in 2014-19

Familie is Family Party. They got a MEP in 2014 who then defected to Freie Whaler and then to some Christian Democrat party. He sat in ECR group

Piraten sat with Greens/EFA.

VOLT is a pan-European movement, sort of social liberal and progressive

[YL]

Reports from the count in Northern Ireland suggest that Alliance have taken the UUP seat: 1 Sinn Féin, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance.  But I think it'll be some time before we know officially.

[DavidB.]

Italy
61,539 out of 61,576 polling stations reported


Lega 34.27
PD 22.73
5 Stars 17.06
Forza Italia 8.78
Fratelli d'Italia 6.45

Seems as if Lega did much better than the exit poll suggested, M5S a bit worse. Hope M5S' losses don't undermine the stability of the coalition. Though I expected them to fare much worse at this point.