European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling for European Elections in GB has always been a notorious joke. This time round (if it happens which it seems like it will), this will be even truer than normal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's basically zero public awareness or interest in the European Elections here at present, so polling is liable to be even more random and all over the place than normal. Though, obviously, I'd expect an absurd mess of a result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an organisational and institutional level both major British parties are in a dreadful state, much worse even than they look at first glance. Which means longer term predictions of any sort a waste of time. These particular absurd elections will presumably show that off embarrassingly clearly, though doubtless many analysts will draw the wrong conclusions from that.

Anyway, whenever there's a situation like this it's natural to assume that something must snap and everything must change in some way, because surely it must? And it might. But entirely dysfunctional party systems can survive (as in: without righting themselves either) for a surprisingly long term out of sheer inertia sometimes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This may or may not be an outlier, but...

All European Elections polls for GB are, in essence, outliers. Might as well play with dice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who 'wins' where is, honestly, beyond irrelevant. Even more than usually. And it never matters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

Well it's possible that the mickey mouse elections and the patterns in them might matter a bit in that sort of sense, sure. Otherwise, no. Meaningless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice to see a comfortable remain block in the Southeast. Proof that suburban trends are global and unstoppable.

A deeply stupid post even by your extremely low standards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the brain genius move of not bothering to actually campaign in these elections but run candidates anyway was not so clever? Wow. Shock.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It wasn't a normal election at all: it ended up being a symbolic vote on the Brexit issue for those sufficiently motivated by it (turnout was low, naturally), and the two main parties both, idiotically and suicidally, didn't bother seriously campaigning and as good as signaled that it was fine to sit the poll out.