European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Ethelberth]

No reasaon to think three parties would not survive.

Germany, Netherlands and Slovakia have three-way split in non-EPP right.

ECR, DE, SK, NL
EFDD, DE. SK, NL
ENF, DE, SK, NL

France, and Italy have split between EFDD and ENR

ECR, DE, SK, NL                 3/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR    5/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR      5/7

Belgium and Czech Republic have split between ECR and ENF

ECR, DE, SK, NL, CS, BE                 5/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR    5/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, CS, BE      7/7

Lithuania has split betwen ECR and EFDD

ECR, DE, SK, NL, CS, BE, LT                 6/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, LT    6/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, CS, BE      7/7

So you need one Finnish, Danish, Swedish, Polish, Greek, Latvian, Austrian, Estonian party to join ECR or EFDD in order to make a group.

[Ethelberth]

Noise activity. None of the member parties are likely to get people elected. An alliance of unelected politicians. Alternativet and Razem may get elected, but this like Libertas back in History, De Villiers got elected since MPF had enough hardcore supporters to be elected. If the toxicated and AFD go to ENF, Five-star-movement could form a group with these guys.

[Ethelberth]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

[Ethelberth]

Varoufakis could be  a subgroup of larger group (like Northern Green Left).  The 25/7 rule is a  major obstacle to form a new group, because it basically needs one big party from three big countries (after UK has left the building).

[Ethelberth]

In Finland, there has been debate about the Finns joining Swedish Democrats in the same group (whatever would that be). Since Soini left the party, there should be no obstacles for that.

[Ethelberth]

This table of independent polticians in EP today. Some of them have political parties for one politician (eg. Paavo Vayrynen in Finland, M15 in Romania).

   

EPP   SOC   ECR   ALDE   GRN   GUE   EFD   ENF   NON    BE                               BU      1                         CS            2                   DK                           1    DE                  1             EE               1                IR      1   1   1      1             GR                  1             ES   1         3                   FR   3            1      1          HR   1      1                      IT               1   1      1   1    CY                               LV                               LT   1         1                   LU                               HU                           1    MT                               NL                               PL      1   3                  2    PT   1                            RO   1   1   2   2                   SI                               SK   1                            FI            1                   SE                               UK   2                     1   2       11   4   7   10   3   4   1   2   7   49

[Ethelberth]

There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin.

[Ethelberth]

"There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin."

Which one, Halla-aho? Can you link it?

Leader of the Finns Party (I shall not write his name). It was an radio podcast dedicated to Europian matters in YLE this week.

https://areena.yle.fi/1-4406221

[Ethelberth]

The conventional acronym for the afore-written person is simply "Sensei" among his followers.
That can be used rather neutrally.

[Ethelberth]

For starters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2019_(France)

The Left Radicals joined Radicals, however their MEP formed an small party for her self: Radicals of LEFT). Basically border-line independent.

[Ethelberth]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They have to outlaw PO first.

[Ethelberth]

ALDE vs MACRON

FI  4 vs 0
SE 4 vs 0
DK 3 vs 1
DE 10 vs 0
NL 5 vs 2
BE 0 vs 4 (If VLD/MR really lefts the group) also it possible that N-VA could join Liberals left Liberals.
LU 0 vs 1
FR 4 vs 24
ES 2 vs 12
PT 0 vs 0
IR 3 vs 0 (stonmen are likely get their seats back)
PL 4 vs 0
EE 4 vs 0
LV  1 vs 0
LT  2 vs 0
CS 5 vs 0
SK 0 vs 1
AT 2 vs 0
HU 0 vs 1
SI 2 vs 0
HR 2 vs 0
BU 4 vs 0
RO 3 vs 3
IT 0 vs 20
MT 0 vs 0
EL 0 vs 1
CY 0 vs 0

64  vs  68

[Ethelberth]

If CSU is expelled from Union and CDU becomes national, what will the role of Manfred Weber (CSU) be.

[Ethelberth]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

[Ethelberth]

Sensei has told in Finnish newspapers that right of EPP parties shall form a new alliance after next EP elections (in order to avoid the fragmentation). The problem is that EPP and SD are ready  to give influence for ECR group but have banned (EFDD and ENF)., two openly Putinist, groups from relevant posts in parliament.  So at least two groups are likely.

[Ethelberth]

Biggest issue will be support of Putin's agenda on making Europe small again. I do not think all East European parties will support it.

[Ethelberth]

Ugh, there is again that annoying gossip that Robert Biedroń will start his own political initiative and that initiative will be aimed for first European Parliament elections and then the Sejm elections. His initiative will probably called "Kocham Polskę" (eng: I love Poland) and it will be probably next initiative to UNITE THE LEFT by creating next bleak and boring organisation of few ambitious, younger politicians who are still looking for their place between SLD and Razem. I guess there are chances that there will be no S&D MEPs from Poland, even when there will be no changes in the electoral system (which PiS is not trying to pass).

This is no longer gossip - Biedroń has announced that he is indeed planning on launching his own centre-left 'social movement', and Razem immediately responded that they are willing to enter negotiations for a coalition with him for the EP elections. Given that Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative is now splintering due to the actually principled left-wing members not willing to follow Nowacka's lead and join the PO-.N 'Civic Coalition', the long-prophesied left-wing coalition may finally be within reach.

Something about Marie Curie inventing radioactivity.

[Ethelberth]

Conventionally, ÖVP has overperformed in EP elections, due their catholic Europhile electorate.

[Ethelberth]

In Finland

All KOK deputies will attempt to reclaim their MEP posts.
SFP, Vihr and Vas deputies will be candidates again.
All Kesk deputies consider to run again (although its possible that some of them run parlamentary elections instead of it).
One PS MEP (Sensei) will come back to Finnish politics). The second PS MEP will rerun.
One SDP MEP will rerun. Liisa Jaakonsaari, who has been in Finnish or European Parliament since 1979 will retire.  

Former speaker, and SDP leader (Eero Heinäluoma) will run for EP next spring.


There will be parlamentary elections one  month before EP elections, so lot of things can happen before it.  

[Ethelberth]

Do not forget AFD, the "big prize" in post election regroupings.

[Ethelberth]

There is speculation that the number of countries necessary to form a group shall be reduced in next parliament (four countries). For LREM and Five-star-men, that shall be good news.

[Ethelberth]

First ten-ish MEPs have been designed by Politbüro of Greens in Germany.

https://www.gruene.de/ueber-uns/2018/ska-keller-und-sven-giegold-sind-das-gruene-spitzenduo-fuer-die-europawahl-2019.html

[Ethelberth]

He shall rejoin his old Comrades. He used to be there as a Belgian MEP. Other possibility is that five-star-men's anti-establishment group.

[Ethelberth]

Afd selected candidates only one candidate in top 10 from East. Strange.

[Ethelberth]

Yellow Vests would be natural ally of five star men in next EP (they need allies).