European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

The proposed system according to which the UK's seats would become a transnational constituency was sadly rejected. The idea was that people would have two votes: one "traditional" vote for a national party in a national constituency, one for European lists (liberals, social democrats, nationalists... you name it).

[DavidB.]

It's the question what will happen with ECR now that the Tories will be gone. This group is already a bit of a hotchpotch, with secular-ish conservative parties (Tories, ODS), secular parties that are not even really conservative (N-VA), Christian conservative parties (CU-SGP), Eastern European right-wing populists (PiS) and Western European radical right-wing parties of the more "light" variety (the Finns Party, who were "radical light" in 2014 but have moved to the right and will probably join ENF in 2019, and Danish DF). An unnatural combination of parties that might well disband after this parliamentary term.

EFD have a bigger problem than ECR, however. While there is definitely space between EPP and ENF, EFD aren't viable without UKIP. M5S will have a problem, but I guess most of the other parties could join ENF. Would be most awkward for the Sweden Democrats, who seek to avoid the stigma that cooperation with parties like AfD/FN/FPÖ might bring.

Another big question is: what will Macron do? Currently, EPP and S&D are in some sort of a "permanent coalition". However, Macron is apparently interested in creating a new parliamentary group consisting of Eurofederalists: he views federalism vs. euroskepticism as the divide that defines political competition in Europe. It is the question whether this attempt will be successful, though, and in the end he could simply join ALDE, where LREM would probably immediately become the largest party anyway.

[DavidB.]

I guess this will also depend on the number of seats EPP manage to "pick up" on their right by having parties currently in ECR and EFD join them.

It really sucks for PiS that PO are already in the EPP, because otherwise they could have joined them following the disintegration of ECR. We already know EPP have no problem with right-wing authoritarians as long as they keep delivering majorities in the EP, and the EPP would protect the PiS government from EU attacks on Poland that Hungary has never had to endure because of Fidesz' EPP membership.

[DavidB.]

About PiS, I wonder, why couldn't they join EPP as well? Having their main rivals in the same group will definitely be uncomfortable but there are also several rivals which share group.

I suppose PO have a veto, which they would definitely use.

Agree with tack's grouping of post-2019 parliamentary groups.

Is ECR certain to disintegrate? They're represented in 15 member states (14 if you discount the United Kingdom), so they have a while to fall before they disappear off the map, and it seems like some of those parties don't necessarily have anywhere else to go. Obviously without the Conservatives they'd be a much more marginal grouping, but I don't know that I necessarily see them disappearing.

Yeah, I agree, I don't think they will necessarily disintegrate; after all, there has to be some "soft euroskeptic" parliamentary group and indeed, some of them have nowhere to go. But it's also not unlikely that they do disintegrate, and I expect them to lose more parties than just the Tories. Some Western European parties might be uncomfortable with being in a group in which PiS will be by far the largest party (if they stay in themselves).

Any other likely candidates?

Wouldn't say it's "likely", but Dutch PM Rutte would be a potential candidate on behalf of ALDE (though I think it is more likely he would want to become a European Commissioner). There is much speculation about Rutte going to Brussels for a top job after the 2019 European election and making Klaas Dijkhoff the Dutch PM. This would be less likely with Macron in ALDE as I think he would regard Rutte as too critical of eurofederalism (but it wouldn't matter for the European Commission, of course, unless he would go for the top job). The VVD is on the right-wing side within ALDE in general, but Rutte has a lot of experience (including experience in "fending off populists") and could sell himself quite well if he wanted to. I personally think it is still more likely that he stays on as PM, but we can't discard the possibility.

[DavidB.]

ENF will definitely have AfD join them; Halla-aho's Finns Party are likely to follow and the Sweden Democrats might have no other option than to do so as well, though ECR could be an option for them too. With their current polling level (much higher than in 2014, when it was extremely close) VB should be able to make it in again. FPÖ, FN, Lega and PVV won't have any problems getting in. Dutch FvD might join ENF as well (but that will obviously not help ENF for the 7 countries requirement). Apart from these parties, they could attract Greek ANEL from ECR (if they get in again) and perhaps some new right-wing splinter parties from Eastern Europe, of which I know nothing.

Anyway, with AfD, FPÖ, FN, Lega, PVV and VB safe or almost safe, they only need one more country.

Perhaps our Polish posters know which far-right parties could win seats? Are Kukiz a potential ENF member? Will Korwin-Mikke make it in again?

[DavidB.]

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

Should have good chances of being formed again. Slovakia could be a good guess to provide the 7th country MEPs with several different options. SNS could return to the European Parliament, Kotleba's new far-right party or perhaps the new We Are Family party. They are all three at 8-9% in current polls.

I think Czech SPD are likely to win at least one seat and join ENF, given that Okamura was already hanging out with Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in Prague. This would be my number one bet, but you're absolutely right about Slovakia, of course.

Do you know more about Latvian TT, currently in EFD? Could they join ENF?

[DavidB.]

I think we cannot exclude the possibility that Macron manages to create a new group largely consisting of current ALDE members, which would exclude the more eurocritical and/or conservative ALDE parties (VVD, Venstre -- less Eurocritical than the others here but no Macronistas either --, FDP, maybe Walloon MR and the Swedish Liberals?) + some of the more questionable Central and Eastern European ones (Czech ANO, most importantly) and include centrist, Eurofederalist S&D (and perhaps EPP) parties like the Italian PD and the Greek centrists in S&D (if they still exist?). In that case, the right-liberal parties excluded are royally f**ked. VVD/V/FDP will never join a group that includes PiS, so they have nowhere to go, though they could create their own group with parties like Romanian PNL and Finnish NCP.

[DavidB.]

Couldn't VVD join EPP?

They strongly identify as liberals, I doubt they would want to do so. But it could be a last-resort option. It's slightly less unlikely in a scenario where Juncker has left. Still, the VVD would prefer a separate group with right-wing liberals/moderate conservatives.

[DavidB.]

For an incredibly volatile country, the 2014 EP election result in the Netherlands was remarkably similar to the 2009 result:

Total number of seats: 26
CDA-EPP: 15.2%, 5 seats (nc)
D66-ALDE: 15.5%, 4 seats (+1)
PVV-ENF: 13.3%, 4 seats (-1)
VVD-ALDE: 12%, 3 seats (nc)
SP-LEFT: 9.6%, 2 seats (nc)
PvdA-S&D: 9.4%, 3 seats (nc)
CU-SGP, ECR: 7.7%, 2 seats (nc)
GL-G/EFA: 7%, 1 seat (-1)
PvdD-LEFT: 4.2%, 1 seat (+1)

50Plus just missed out on winning a seat with 3.7% of the vote and 175k out of almost 183k of the necessary votes. With 26 seats, a party needed 3.8% of the vote.

As we are set to gain three seats for a total of 29, the "threshold" will be lowered to 3.4%.

Turnout was about 37% in both 2009 and 2014, so everything will depend on who manages to best mobilize their voters. Even DENK could gain a seat if they manage to mobilize their electorate better than other parties. The election is still far away so I won't come up with a detailed prediction, but it seems likely that FvD and 50Plus will enter the EP. Last time around everybody thought that the CDA would lose seats, but they did not, mostly because of their electoral alliance with CU-SGP but also because of the fact that CDA voters are simply more inclined to turn out for inconsequential elections like this one than the electorate as a whole. Electoral alliances will not exist anymore next year, so I think the CDA losing at least one seat would be a safe bet. The PVV are also likely to lose one or even two if FvD are still going strong next year (which is not a given). GL are likely to gain one or two, D66 could lose one, the PvdA (who owe their current third seat to an electoral alliance with GL) will probably lose one and maybe two.

Estimate:
CDA: 3-5 seats (4 most likely)
D66: 3-5 seats (4 most likely)
PVV: 2-4 seats (2-3 most likely)
VVD: 3-4 seats (3 most likely)
SP: 2-3 seats
PvdA: 1-3 seats (1-2 most likely)
CU-SGP: 2-3 seats (2 most likely)
GL: 2-4 seats
PvdA: 1-2 seats (1 most likely)
50Plus: 0-1 seat (1 most likely)
DENK: 0-1 seat (0 most likely)
FvD: 0-4 seats (1-3 most likely)

Political fragmentation in the Netherlands causes parties to be very weak in EP parliamentary groups, which doesn't matter too much (it remains the EP) but is still worrisome and might make the difference in votes that matter to the country, such as the recent vote in which pulse fishing was banned. Compare that to Hungary, which has much fewer seats but whose ruling party has a whopping 14 seats and does have influence within the EPP (at least to the extent that they get a pass for their domestic policies while Poland doesn't).

[DavidB.]

For Dutch posters: is FvD planning on contesting the elections/joining an EU party or group?

They do plan on running; it is unclear whether they seek to join any group, and if so, which one.

[DavidB.]

I sincerely hope Macron will succeed in breaking up the existing system and I hope (wishful thinking, I know) that those opposed to an ever-closer EU in which sovereignty is trampled on will finally manage to overcome their differences and unite: an ever-closer union of European nationalists, if you will (though the toxic triangle of XA, Jobbik and NPD should definitely be excluded). I would love to vote for a Dutch party being part of such an alliance. Whether that would be FvD or PVV does not matter to me. I hope the FPÖ won't succeed in dividing political forces that ultimately have the same goals.

[DavidB.]

To me this just seems like a way to keep the NPD out. Which I find to be a laudable goal in itself, but I don't think this kind of legislation should be used to reach it.

Initially they wanted it for member states with 29 seats or more, but NL has prevented this as it would affect "normal" parties here (but, come to think of it, also DENK..). I personally think it would actually be good to have a threshold for the Netherlands in EP elections (preferably 5%), because Dutch parties yield too little influence in their EP groups due to the fragmentation in the Netherlands, which will only get worse and cause like 10 parties to have one or a few seats.

[DavidB.]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

[DavidB.]

Does anybody know what party the Croatian Human Blockade will affiliate with?

Croatian friend tells me GUE/NGL would be the best guess.

[DavidB.]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

[DavidB.]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

But AfD will get more than 10% (probably closer to 15%, possibly even more) and Germany has many more seats than France. Italy has about the same number of seats as France, and the Lega will probably outperform FN unless they suddenly become unpopular in government.

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

[DavidB.]

I think an EFD in which M5S takes over the place is not so unlikely to survive either. There are quite some parties that don't want to be in ENF (too toxic profile with Le Pen, Strache, Wilders, probably Gauland) but aren't particularly enthused by the "soft" ECR either (though ECR without the Tories will be led by PiS, perhaps more attractive to some parties). EFD without UKIP will be both sufficiently euroskeptical and sufficiently vague for these parties. Could see parties like Kukiz and Dutch FVD join them. SD could also stay in if they don't go to ECR. Then add a few small Baltic nationalist parties and you're almost there.

Kataak said that Kukiz isn't particularly interested in "hard nationalism" and neither do they want to leave the EU, so they probably won't join ENF.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists

I mean, half the Polish Sejm MPs are in PiS...

[DavidB.]

In Finland, there has been debate about the Finns joining Swedish Democrats in the same group (whatever would that be). Since Soini left the party, there should be no obstacles for that.

It could still be that SD join ECR (and the Finns). ECR without the Tories is a markedly more right-wing group than ECR with the Tories, especially since PiS will be the largest party (probably by far). At the same time, it would make sense for PS to move one group to the right, to EFD, SD's current group. Ideologically, even a move to ENF would make sense for PS (not so much for SD), but they might want to avoid this for domestic reasons.

[DavidB.]

Maybe more Eurosceptic organisations could be pinched from EPP and even ALDE to form a new replacement ECR: Fidesz being the obvious one.

Don't think any EPP/ALDE parties would join any group in which Fidesz would take part. It's more likely that PiS just take over ECR and have Fidesz join. But Fidesz will only leave EPP if they are kicked out.

I think a merger between EFD and ECR should be an option too. What's the point of having two groups that, without UKIP and the Tories, essentially want the same thing?

[DavidB.]

One of the things that isn't discussed enough is that Euroscepticism has fundamentally changed character in recent years, to the extent the name is sort of an artifact. Most all of the big parties, as they have prepared for governance, have shed ideas of leaving the EU or even the eurozone.

Which formerly Euroskeptic big parties that have a serious shot at entering the government anytime soon have changed their positions on the EU and the eurozone in a more pro-EU way? Only French FN comes to mind (wouldn't say they have a serious shot at entering the government, but for the sake of argument), and perhaps Danish DF have moderated along the way. The FPÖ aren't as tough in government as they said they would be, but that's par for the course when RRWPs enter governments and nothing new.

Indeed, a lot of the rhetoric of European values needing to be saved could easily be appropriated into the demands of Eurofederalism (which would be a pretty surreal sight).

Don't see this happen anytime soon. Immigration is the main issue to most euroskeptic parties on the right (and to their voters). Schengen and the EU looked incredibly bad during the 2015 mass immigration crisis. The fear of EU-enforced immigrant quota will also forever scare voters away from eurofederalism.

I guess the boundary between euroskepticism and eurofederalism is more fluid on the left, though, as eurofederalism is usually not rejected by left-wing parties based on the principle of sovereignty but because the current EU is deemed unredeemably capitalist.

PiS obviously is thinking about second term and I guess they can't always live on conflict with Brussels so they need to have some sort of possibility to maneuver. ECR is maybe not loved by EPP and S&D but still is considered as a civilized group due to Tories and ODS. Making fusion with faction associated with UKiP and fu**ing Korwin is not really beneficial for PiS in that case. They need to have someone on their right to looks more acceptable and more plausible as a partner to possible future ALDE-EPP-S&D commission and parliament.

UKIP will be gone, Korwin might be out. The only EFDD parties that might/will get in are a) Italian M5S, b) Lithuanian Order and Justice, and c) Swedish SD. That's it. All the others are indies and/or will be out (Czech Svobodni). AfD will be in ENF.

None of the EFDD parties that get to remain in sound too unacceptable to just move to ECR. PiS currently already cooperate in ECR with the Finns Party (currently more radical than Swedish SD), the Latvian National Alliance (most right-wing option on the menu in Latvia and seem quite far to the right to me), and the Danish People's Party (relatively moderate but still an RRWP). It could be bad to be associated with M5S if they screw up in government, but Order and Justice (very similar profile to the Latvian National Alliance) and SD seem fine.

[DavidB.]

Leader of the Finns Party (I shall not write his name).

Is this the Finnish "Drumpf" thing? He Who Must Not Be Named was cool in Harry Potter when I was 12, but you'd hope people could discuss politics without this sort of thing.

Is it pretty certain that AfD will move into ENF? It would make sense if they did, as I see them as possibly being the more hardcore of the RWPP (temporary halting of all immigration).

It seems pretty certain, yes.

I would agree that AfD are probably be the most hardcore of the RRWPs in ENF (though there are more radical ones outside ENF), perhaps together with the FPÖ. However, it depends on your definition: when it comes to Islam alone, the PVV seem to be the most radical ones (mosque ban, "banning Islam as much as possible"), but they are also much more "civic nationalist" and inclusive towards non-Muslims with a foreign background than AfD.

[DavidB.]

2. AfD is seeking to establish a new group with the FPÖ separate from the French National Rally, who AfD refers to as racist and anti-Semitic (I didn’t see that coming from AfD).

Probably something else going on; most likely a power struggle, given that AfD might become bigger than FN and FN might not be willing to lose control over the group. Accusing the other faction of racism is often not something sincere in these circles. Just look at Frauke Petry. Oh, and it probably matters that it is Jörg Meuthen saying this, who is very much part of the more moderate wing in AfD.

Since Geert Wilders has a close working relationship with Marine Le Pen and is probably less enamored with Gauland's historical revisionism (which is more toxic in the Netherlands than FN's stuff in the first place), I would say the PVV are likely to support (and perhaps follow) FN and not AfD in this. I suppose it would be the other way around for the FPÖ, though their ties with AfD can also become a burden as the FPÖ seek to become normalized and AfD go further and further off the deep end.

[DavidB.]

I would think Swedish Center are more likely to join a Macron group than the Liberals.

[DavidB.]

The Fianna Fail MEP reps for ECR, iirc; not ALDE (although apparently he's always absent so probably won't return).

FF weren't happy with his decision either.