Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if this is directly related to the Russian war in Ukraine, but is certainly curious about how many Russian manufacturing plants have experienced significant industrial incidents from fires to explosions since the February.

Not even going to touch on the fire in the shopping center in Moscow earlier today, since there is no real military objective for Ukraine to justify let alone what would be most objective standards be a terrorist attack on civilian targets.

Personally for most of these incidents, I would tend to ascribe them to a relatively lax Environmental, Health, and Safety oversight programs combined with a mixture of corruption and bribing of governmental agencies responsible for inspections of industrial operations.

It could simply be that "Industrial incidents" in Russia have been extremely common even prior to Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0 (Feb '22).

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1601367657428979712?s=20&t=ZcROBZUB...

Worsening of the economic situation, layoff of workers, threat of unemployment and increased work load happened during the “wild market” industrial restructuring in 1990–2000, when the health and safety of workers were of little concern. Russian employers are not legally held accountable for neglecting safety rules and for underreporting of ODs. Almost 80% of all Russian industrial enterprises are considered dangerous or hazardous for health. Hygienic control of working conditions was minimised or excluded in the majority of enterprises, and the health status of workers remains largely unknown.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3604356/

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, more than 47,000 people are injured at work every year and 2000 are fatally injured.

The International Labour Organisation estimates that the actual number of injuries is significantly higher than this official data. The reasons for these discrepancies include the following:

The cost of carrying out labour protection measures results in employers obtaining cheap and low-quality services. The maximum penalty for violation of health and safety regulations is 200,000 rubles or suspension of work for up to 90 days. The penalty for concealing work-related injuries is much lower, with a maximum of 10,000 rubles.

Employers may prefer to hide accidents because of fear of criminal prosecution which may result in two years’ imprisonment in relation to a serious accident, and a maximum of seven years for a group fatal incident.

Employers with a minimum level of work-related injuries are eligible to receive discounts on the cost of their compulsory insurance against workplace accidents and diseases.

Employees may fear that they will lose their jobs if they report an accident at work because this registration may cause tensions between the employer and the employee.

There are reported to be 10 million illegal migrants in Russia and 2 million registered migrant workers. Illegal workers who suffer workplace accidents do not report these to the authorities.

Data related to workplace injuries is prepared by a number of ministries and departments, including the Federal State Statistics Service and the Social Insurance fund of the Russian Federation. There are wide discrepancies in the statistics issued by these bodies.

It has been reported that approximately 80% of all Russian industrial enterprises were categorised as dangerous or hazardous for health. The worst labour conditions were found in coal mining, shipbuilding, metallurgy, agriculture, building material production, lumbering and construction activities. Most workers engaged in dangerous and hazardous conditions were employed in non-governmental enterprises.

During the construction of gas pipelines in the Arctic, it was reported that there was on average one doctor for approximately 300 workers engaged in dangerous and hazardous working conditions. 78% of workers considered themselves to be overexposed to noise and vibration. There were serious lifestyle issues, with 79% smokers and 77% consuming 250–500ml of vodka at a time.

https://app.croneri.co.uk/topics/russia/indepth

[Virginiá]

It was widely posited that Ukraine would need to launch successful offensives to prove the aid was worthwhile, but it's quite possible that the reverse was closer to the truth: that the Biden administration and others are nervous about Ukraine advancing too quickly (or at all). A Congressional aide suggests as much in the article.

Kherson was heavily telegraphed and most of the land was retaken because Russia accepted it was necessary; it wasn't a surprise. The success of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, by contrast, may have taken Russia, the US and even Ukraine by surprise, and perhaps it spooked Western backers a little bit.

You could also argue that the Biden admin is just worried about Ukraine advancing too fast due to enhanced military aid from them, such as flooding the battlefield with modern tanks and long range missiles (as current aid hasn't been enough to overly provoke Russia). I think the US is primarily concerned about their actions causing Russia to escalate, rather than Ukraine doing so merely by winning. As for munitions - some of these production lines seem genuinely constrained and something like the GMLRS they have been sending are only produced by the US. Artillery shells may end up not being a problem later on due to unified efforts of NATO factories (and other foreign suppliers), but that is to be determined. It doesn't seem like NATO currently has the ability to produce the amount of 155mm Ukraine needs, though. Even Slovakia seems to be considering spinning up production. What I would agree on is that eventually NATO/3rd party production lines will be able to provide steady & sufficient supplies, but who knows when that will be the case. It could easily be a year from now, potentially giving Ukraine problems on the battlefield due to a shortage of shells if the US refuses to send more

The way it is looking, Russia is not prepared to accept a loss so long as Putin feels they have the potential to keep going, so any Ukrainian successes are going to eventually result in escalation so long as those wins keep coming in (and thus from Russia's perspective, losses). The US just wants to keep that escalation from reaching inside NATO borders and thus dragging them into the conflict.

[NOVA Green]

This side by side comparison gave a slight chuckle...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1601210212777500673?s=20&t=ZcROBZUBgBWqp...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1601213792813461510?s=20&t=ZcROBZUBgBWqp...

[Virginiá]

Damn those wayward grenade launchers

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1601360644561072129

[NOVA Green]

Might be time to revise these plans. Not much of a point in holding back munitions for a possible war with Russia when Russia is already at war and their military is being ground down day by day. If we're saving weapons for this hypothetical war, we might as well use them now. By the time Russia can rebuild its military, we'll already have replacements for the weapons sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1601314635755364353

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

Also:

Congressional aides have complained that U.S. aid packages to Ukraine are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality on the ground, with around $400 million going to Kyiv every couple of weeks—far less than what was being provided during the summer months, when the United States began providing the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Ukraine used to devastating effect against Russian lines.

“The administration doesn’t actually want to go faster in Ukraine,” the first congressional aide said. “That’s very clear to all of us.”

Worth reading the article if you like to follow military aid to Ukraine.

Phillips Obrien would appear to agree with you on this... (At least on your first point)

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1601321175585820672?s=20&t=ZcROBZ...

[NOVA Green]

Putin intoxicated in public isn't a normal thing, though?

Which could tell us something, even if its unclear exactly what at this stage.

This... Putin is no Yeltsin, and it is extremely rare over the decades to see him consuming alcohol in front of cameras.

As I was telling my wife last night, if Putin was attempting to appear as a "man of the people", perhaps better choice would have been Russian manufactured top-shelf Wodka, despite the Franco-Russian "Champagne Wars" over the decades....

Still, key question would be was Putin getting "drunk": on French Champagne or Russian Champagne?

In a chilly windowless basement in this provincial French city, workers stack bottles of bubbly. Not just any bubbly, but le vrai champagne, which thanks to a special protected status can only be made in the Champagne region of eastern France.

"A lot of people want to use the name,' says Marie Genand, a lawyer for the Comité Champagne, which oversees production and trade for the Champagne region's 15,000 winemakers.

But in a deft display of soft power, one world leader is putting centuries of French tradition to the test.

In early July, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law reserving the use of the word champagne in the Russian market for sparkling wines produced in Russia.

Imported French champagne can no longer call itself...champagne.

Moët Hennessy, arguably the most recognizable French champagne house, said it's already spent hundreds of thousands of euros to change its labels to comply with the new Russian law.

Russians are equally proud of their product, which even though the Soviet Union is long gone is still sold as "Soviet Champagne."

The idea for Kremlin champagne goes back to the days of Joseph Stalin, who in 1936 acted to provide sparkling wine to the Soviet masses, dramatically increasing local production to millions of bottles a year.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/03/1031324658/france-and-russia-are-in-a-tussle-over-who-gets-to-call-champagne-champagne

[It’s so Joever]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

It’s less likely that public support is shifting then it is with Musk in charge that Russian bots and trolls feel emboldened to come out

I don't think they're emboldened, I think more spam and bots are able to tweet now that Musk has trashed the company.

That’s probably a better way of putting it. The Twitter comment section backlash to Zelensky winning the Times POTY award were very bot heavy and reeks of “Musk not banning us so let’s get after it comrades”

If true, Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter would present a grave urgent national security threat and must be reversed anyway possible. If he wants money we can give that, but if he refuses because it’s an ego project (likely) I think we need to get the CIA involved.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1601648566724096000?s=20&t=tqzd6jvrk...

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

It’s less likely that public support is shifting then it is with Musk in charge that Russian bots and trolls feel emboldened to come out

I don't think they're emboldened, I think more spam and bots are able to tweet now that Musk has trashed the company.

That’s probably a better way of putting it. The Twitter comment section backlash to Zelensky winning the Times POTY award were very bot heavy and reeks of “Musk not banning us so let’s get after it comrades”

If true, Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter would present a grave urgent national security threat and must be reversed anyway possible. If he wants money we can give that, but if he refuses because it’s an ego project (likely) I think we need to get the CIA involved.

But, b-but......FrEeZe PeAcH!!!!??!!!?!!!!111!!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1601853755456389120

[Gass3268]

Russian barracks hit, between 200-300 dead.

https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/1601697039452364800?s=46&t=Y0qRvchz1Qyj...

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1601896800595722242?cxt=HHwWhIC-5eSp...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1601931451066351617

[Torie]

Akhmetov is Ukraine's richest person, and he is suing Russia for 20 billion in damages.

[PSOL]

The war has destroyed the wealth of most of the Russian and Ukrainian elite—bar the figures in good standing around Zelenskyy which get tons of money by the West one way or another—and have weakened the hold of the dominant form of Capital groupings being of and being accountable to the Russian state. We are seeing the rebirth of direct challenge by not just non-Russian, nonconformist business leaders but of sections of the working class. Ukraine with hefty NATO assistance and direction has destroyed most of the left within Russia as well as curtailing the oligarchy to serve the war effort, so that leaves Russia in a war less successful than our Vietnam and quickly leading to societal breakdown.

Any person on the Russian Marxist-Leninist/pro-Soviet left who doesn’t see this as a great time to revolt and seize power, just as the revolution after the Japanese war ended in failure, isn’t worth listening to. This is a great time for organizing, and once there’s a persistent ceasefire a great time for revolution. The Russian Maoist party, the same one which hosts that famous writer of the Chechen conflict who was/is a member at the time, has the right ideas and is going to be part of this process along with other fellow travelers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Amid reports of Morocco delivering spare tank parts to Ukraine, South Africa appears to become a potential weapons donor for Russia.

According to the South African Daily Maverick, a Russian-flagged cargo ship (previously sanctioned for transporting weapons during the war) was loaded in a South African port - this publication claims it happened during a (regular) power cut. The ship's transponder was off when it arrived and also when it left.

According to Militarnyi (a Ukrainian publication), the cargo was loaded mostly at night. They report that an opposition MP said it was "obvious" that the South African weapons company Armscor was involved, as they had entered into contracts with the "drivers" (I assume this is a crude translation of the ship's crew).

The South African National Conventional Arms Control Committee says it has no records of arms sales to Russia, opposition MPs have demanded transparency, and the MoD has refused to comment. The minister had previously stated, when asked in August about arms sales to Russia, that details of such deals had to be classified as matters of national security.

Russia and South Africa don't have many common armaments (neighbouring Namibia and Zimbabwe do), but personal protective gear is pretty transferable. They also have Starstreak MANPADS - even one shipment of those could prove useful if Russia aimed to use it to analyse Ukrainian Starstreaks.

[PSOL]

This war has been a personal testing ground for many nations to sell weaponry; the US, EU, Turkey, Israel, China, Iran, Morocco, Japan, South Korea, South Africa…I’m just waiting for Brazil and Algeria to enter the mix as the last nations with a strong domestic weapons production market.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1602221158681948161

[Virginiá]

Step in the right direction - would be nice to see Biden join in on this

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1602362520030904320

A very clear choice with consequences Russia can easily avoid by simply ceasing their strategic bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure.

[Woody]

One of Kadyrov's guys ("watchdog" of the region) well and alive, after supposedly dying in Melitopol.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProjectAkhmat/status/1601918625014767617?cxt=HHwWgoCz...

[Frodo]

Viktor Orban once again demonstrates where his true sympathies lie in this war -and they are not with Ukraine, considering his willingness to use them as a bargaining chip with the European Union:

Hungary blocks EU Ukraine aid, deepening rift with Brussels

Crisis averted, for now, though I won't hold my breath waiting for Orban's government to implement those rule of law provisions in good faith:

EU Nations Agree to Unblock Ukraine Aid, Clear Hungary Funds

European Union countries reached a preliminary agreement to clear the way for Ukraine to receive crucial aid from the bloc after Hungary dropped its opposition in exchange for a reduction in penalties over graft concerns.

Hungary had been vetoing an €18 billion ($19 billion) support package for Ukraine, a measure that requires the consent of all 27 EU members. As part of the deal struck among EU ambassadors on Monday, Hungary removed its block on the money, according to a tweet from the Czech Republic, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency.

The EU nations also agreed to approve Hungary’s pandemic-era recovery plan, which entitles Budapest to €5.8 billion in grants. But Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government will need to implement a series of legislative conditions meant to bolster the rule of law before any money will be disbursed.

[Virginiá]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

It seems plausible and would still allow the missiles to hit the vast majority of the country, assuming Russia was incapable of removing the restrictions. Software restrictions would seem the simplest to introduce, but who's to say you can't jailbreak a missile?

Still, I'd take Israeli govt. claims with more than a few grains of salt. They are aware of their own stance and history in this conflict and the benefits of obscuring these. Israeli drones have also proven quite useful to Russia.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Iran seems to be limiting the range of ballistic missiles they will provide Russia, but 300km will still allow Russia to hit much of Ukraine if they stage the launchers near the border / LOC in Belarus, and Kherson / Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1602349277321334788

I hope with the anti Iran hawk Netanyahu back in power, Israel will send Ukraine it's advanced anti-aircraft systems. Israel bombed a Iranian drone manufacturing plant in Syria a few months ago.

[Alben Barkley]

Oh, so Iran is "just" limiting the weapons they are using to help commit genocide to 300km. That makes it SO much better!