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Does any other voting group base their vote solely on US policy toward their nation of origin? I just never hear about Mexican-American voters being passionate about US relations with Mexico or Indians caring about how Biden is treating Modi and BJP. It just seems this group hasn't assimilated as others immigrants have.

Cubans?

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Atlanta, Black Belt, rurals?

Low African American turnout

Does any other voting group base their vote solely on US policy toward their nation of origin? I just never hear about Mexican-American voters being passionate about US relations with Mexico or Indians caring about how Biden is treating Modi and BJP. It just seems this group hasn't assimilated as others immigrants have.

I don't think it will be any of the counties mentioned in this thread. The two most likely counties I could see this happening in are Palm Beach (FL) and the Rio Grande Valley counties in TX, which already shifted right in 2020

Miami-Dade might be. Could see a 55-42 Trump win here.

The two GA polls released today are all MOE

But if you’re talking about the current aggregate, then I really don’t know. I live in DC but grew up in Georgia. I’ve watched it turn from red to purple over many years, I follow GA politics very closely, and I talk frequently with my friends and family down there about politics.

For Trump to win GA by 4-5 points, there would need to either be a strong shift in the Black vote or a lot of Dems staying home. Both are possible, but I don’t think they are likely. A lot more POC and dem leaning voters have moved there since 2020, so Trump would need a drop off or a shift that also negated that population growth. (Because a smaller share of a bigger pie is still more pie)

Trump winning by a point to two is more probable if MAGA comes out strong for him and Biden gets lackluster turnout.

Other big questions:
- How will Hispanic and Asian voters shift? This electorate is growing and shifts here could matter at the margins
-Will ATL suburbs continue to shift left? They have only gotten more diverse since 2020, but could MAGA resonate more this time?
- Does Biden increase his share of the white vote? Polls show him holding steady with this group
- How much for Ossoff and Warnock campaign for Biden? They are still pretty popular in the state and could help with groups Biden is shaky with
- Does turnout, interest and investment drop off with no other marquee race on the ballot?

Why does Sanchez's enemies persist in giving him free shots at an open goal?

Amongst other things, because he triggers them.

It was never a good idea, as several suspected at the time.

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.