If the Georgia polling is accurate, where is Trump getting his winning margins from?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 01:24:43 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  If the Georgia polling is accurate, where is Trump getting his winning margins from?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: If the Georgia polling is accurate, where is Trump getting his winning margins from?  (Read 439 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,234


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 22, 2024, 03:44:52 PM »

Atlanta, Black Belt, rurals?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,483
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2024, 04:45:31 PM »

Lol it's MOE
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,218
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2024, 04:56:56 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.
Logged
GAinDC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,512


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2024, 04:58:44 PM »

The two GA polls released today are all MOE

But if you’re talking about the current aggregate, then I really don’t know. I live in DC but grew up in Georgia. I’ve watched it turn from red to purple over many years, I follow GA politics very closely, and I talk frequently with my friends and family down there about politics.

For Trump to win GA by 4-5 points, there would need to either be a strong shift in the Black vote or a lot of Dems staying home. Both are possible, but I don’t think they are likely. A lot more POC and dem leaning voters have moved there since 2020, so Trump would need a drop off or a shift that also negated that population growth. (Because a smaller share of a bigger pie is still more pie)

Trump winning by a point to two is more probable if MAGA comes out strong for him and Biden gets lackluster turnout.

Other big questions:
- How will Hispanic and Asian voters shift? This electorate is growing and shifts here could matter at the margins
-Will ATL suburbs continue to shift left? They have only gotten more diverse since 2020, but could MAGA resonate more this time?
- Does Biden increase his share of the white vote? Polls show him holding steady with this group
- How much for Ossoff and Warnock campaign for Biden? They are still pretty popular in the state and could help with groups Biden is shaky with
- Does turnout, interest and investment drop off with no other marquee race on the ballot?
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,091
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2024, 05:00:45 PM »


Low African American turnout
Logged
GAinDC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,512


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2024, 05:02:01 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,143


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2024, 05:03:16 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

No evidence whatsoever of this.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,091
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2024, 05:04:11 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Hard disagree. Biden's issue with African-American voters is turnout, not an en masse flip to Trump
Logged
GAinDC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,512


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2024, 05:05:30 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

No evidence whatsoever of this.

Even Stacey Abrams ‘22 did really well with Black voters! The only place she gained from her ‘18 performance are the suburbs with growing AA population
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,218
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2024, 05:05:41 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?
Logged
GAinDC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,512


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2024, 05:06:18 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

Does that also mean Biden is about to massively gain in rural Georgia?
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,143


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2024, 05:06:51 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

Low turnout election with little money spent and the incumbent was listed as such on the ballot. Incumbent judges rarely lose elections.

do you honestly think Fulton county will only narrowly go to Biden?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,483
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2024, 05:12:14 PM »

3% is not very high we just have to wait til Eday
Logged
THKL
Rookie
**
Posts: 95
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2024, 05:32:50 PM »

Low Black turnout, Low Young Progressive Turnout, Higher Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives, Never Trump Suburbanites, and Non-Whites, combined with Hispanics and Asians swinging Republican, all make Georgia a Lean Trump state that I am projecting to vote Trump+5, 😂🤣Wink + Tongue!
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,828


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2024, 05:37:52 PM »

Apparently no one believes in uniform swings anymore (despite that being almost exactly what Kemp benefited from in 2022).
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,467


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2024, 06:54:30 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2024, 07:10:34 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,899
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2024, 07:00:57 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2024, 07:10:57 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,227


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2024, 07:12:24 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.

No, it's a terrible example.  It was a non-partisan election.  There were no party labels on the ballot (I'm quite sure of this, because I actually voted in the election.)
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,899
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2024, 07:19:24 PM »

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.

No, it's a terrible example.  It was a non-partisan election.  There were no party labels on the ballot (I'm quite sure of this, because I actually voted in the election.)

If it's a terrible example, it's because the question was also terrible in question.

And to be fair, if anyone would have asked you in 2020 to give an example of how Biden could win Georgia based on election in the past four years, nobody would've been able to give you a great example as well.
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,652


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2024, 08:45:12 PM »

If it's a terrible example, it's because the question was also terrible in question.

And to be fair, if anyone would have asked you in 2020 to give an example of how Biden could win Georgia based on election in the past four years, nobody would've been able to give you a great example as well.
Not true? 2018 was a pretty big sign, even if Abrams didn't win.
Logged
cherry mandarin
HL23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,080


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2024, 12:00:16 AM »

- Does turnout, interest and investment drop off with no other marquee race on the ballot?

The presidential election is the most marquee contest of all, so I don't expect that to happen. When it comes to financial investment by Biden's campaign, they won't pull out of Georgia at the moment, nor do I think they should. As far as I can tell, things would have to get a lot more dire for Biden in GA than they currently are in order for him to truly forfeit a state he carried four years ago that features multiple simultaneous demographic shifts benefiting Democrats.

Biden's issue with African-American voters is turnout, not an en masse flip to Trump

Lower turnout/enthusiasm can still constitute "abandonment" though, as can increased rates of third-party voting.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.