If the Georgia polling is accurate, where is Trump getting his winning margins from?

[Woody]

Atlanta, Black Belt, rurals?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's MOE

[SnowLabrador]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

[GAinDC]

The two GA polls released today are all MOE

But if you’re talking about the current aggregate, then I really don’t know. I live in DC but grew up in Georgia. I’ve watched it turn from red to purple over many years, I follow GA politics very closely, and I talk frequently with my friends and family down there about politics.

For Trump to win GA by 4-5 points, there would need to either be a strong shift in the Black vote or a lot of Dems staying home. Both are possible, but I don’t think they are likely. A lot more POC and dem leaning voters have moved there since 2020, so Trump would need a drop off or a shift that also negated that population growth. (Because a smaller share of a bigger pie is still more pie)

Trump winning by a point to two is more probable if MAGA comes out strong for him and Biden gets lackluster turnout.

Other big questions:
- How will Hispanic and Asian voters shift? This electorate is growing and shifts here could matter at the margins
-Will ATL suburbs continue to shift left? They have only gotten more diverse since 2020, but could MAGA resonate more this time?
- Does Biden increase his share of the white vote? Polls show him holding steady with this group
- How much for Ossoff and Warnock campaign for Biden? They are still pretty popular in the state and could help with groups Biden is shaky with
- Does turnout, interest and investment drop off with no other marquee race on the ballot?

[dspNY]

Atlanta, Black Belt, rurals?

Low African American turnout

[GAinDC]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

[Duke of York]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

No evidence whatsoever of this.

[dspNY]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Hard disagree. Biden's issue with African-American voters is turnout, not an en masse flip to Trump

[GAinDC]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

No evidence whatsoever of this.

Even Stacey Abrams ‘22 did really well with Black voters! The only place she gained from her ‘18 performance are the suburbs with growing AA population

[SnowLabrador]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

[GAinDC]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

Does that also mean Biden is about to massively gain in rural Georgia?

[Duke of York]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

Low turnout election with little money spent and the incumbent was listed as such on the ballot. Incumbent judges rarely lose elections.

do you honestly think Fulton county will only narrowly go to Biden?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3% is not very high we just have to wait til Eday

[THKL]

Low Black turnout, Low Young Progressive Turnout, Higher Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives, Never Trump Suburbanites, and Non-Whites, combined with Hispanics and Asians swinging Republican, all make Georgia a Lean Trump state that I am projecting to vote Trump+5, 😂🤣!

[RI]

Apparently no one believes in uniform swings anymore (despite that being almost exactly what Kemp benefited from in 2022).

[South Dakota Democrat]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.

No, it's a terrible example.  It was a non-partisan election.  There were no party labels on the ballot (I'm quite sure of this, because I actually voted in the election.)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Metro Atlanta. Black voters are abandoning the Democrats in droves.

Name a single GA election in the past four years that would confirm that assertion

Last night?

This is dumb.

Ngl his answer is kinda an own.

GAinDC literally challenges him to name 1 election in the past four years that confirms this assertion.

And he simply says (and correctly) last night.

You may all theorize to how it doesn't matter and you might all very well be true.

But snowlabrador literally destroys it with this answer.

You challenge him to provide an example, he gave you one. Period.

No, it's a terrible example.  It was a non-partisan election.  There were no party labels on the ballot (I'm quite sure of this, because I actually voted in the election.)

If it's a terrible example, it's because the question was also terrible in question.

And to be fair, if anyone would have asked you in 2020 to give an example of how Biden could win Georgia based on election in the past four years, nobody would've been able to give you a great example as well.

[soundchaser]

If it's a terrible example, it's because the question was also terrible in question.

And to be fair, if anyone would have asked you in 2020 to give an example of how Biden could win Georgia based on election in the past four years, nobody would've been able to give you a great example as well.

Not true? 2018 was a pretty big sign, even if Abrams didn't win.

[cherry mandarin]

- Does turnout, interest and investment drop off with no other marquee race on the ballot?

The presidential election is the most marquee contest of all, so I don't expect that to happen. When it comes to financial investment by Biden's campaign, they won't pull out of Georgia at the moment, nor do I think they should. As far as I can tell, things would have to get a lot more dire for Biden in GA than they currently are in order for him to truly forfeit a state he carried four years ago that features multiple simultaneous demographic shifts benefiting Democrats.

Biden's issue with African-American voters is turnout, not an en masse flip to Trump

Lower turnout/enthusiasm can still constitute "abandonment" though, as can increased rates of third-party voting.