India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/meri-aankhon-main-pani-aa-raha-hai-kcr-slams-pm-modi-for-assam-cm-s-remarks-on-rahul-gandhi-101644672267817.html

"‘Meri aankhon main pani aa raha hai’: KCR slams PM Modi for Assam CM's remarks on Rahul Gandhi"

TRS leader and Telangana CM KCR have historically taken a balanced anti-BJP anti-INC line in the 2014 LS 2018 assembly and 2019 LS elections.   In 2019 he tried to form an anti-BJP front w/o INC and mostly went nowhere other than getting YSRCP in AP to sort of back him.  Now he is getting more and more anti-BJP and seems less negative on INC.  BJP has been getting stronger in urban Telangana and KCR must now feel that BJP poses a bigger threat to TRS in 2023 Telangana assembly elections than INC.  His internal polls must show that TRS still has the edge over INC in rural Telangana but could lose out to BJP in urban Telangana.

[jaichind]

Most popular surname by state

Singh and Kumar in the Hindi belt are not a surprise.  Patel in Gujarat and Reddy in Andra-speaking states are not a surprise. Patil which is a common Maratha last name is not a surprise for Maharastra.  I am surprised at Shetty in Karnataka which is a coastal OBC last name.  I guess Lingayats and Vokkaligas in Karnataka are split between many different surnames.  I would have no idea what surname would be most numerous in Odisha anyway but Sahu is an Upper caste trader surname.

[jaichind]

There are renewed rumors from BJP high command in Delhi that if BJP falls below 250 seats in UP then UP CM Yogi Adityanath will be out as CM.  This is almost certainly the desire of Amit Shah who would want to ensure no rival to him being Modi's successor.  What Modi thinks is not clear.  Clearly, even if Modi harbors such thoughts he will not disclose them and will be going all out to help Yogi Adityanath win in UP before the vote count.  After the votes are counted might be a different story.

[jaichind]

One more review of the Goa candidate list before voting starts tomorrow shows

a) Out of the 40 2017 winners, only 10 are still with the political formation they were running from in 2017.  The other 30 either defected/rebelled or had retired and had a relative of their defect/rebelled.
b) Out of the 40 2017 second-place finishers, 10 are not running and have not joined another political formation, 10 are still with the same political formation as 2017 and running, and 20 had defected/rebelled or retired and have relatives of theirs defected/rebelled.

This high level of churn is especially high this year but Goa has had a history of large-scale political churn.  The reason for this seems to be the tourist/entrepot nature of the Goa economy.  Each MP/MLA is given development funds for them to deploy in their districts.  So for agriculture-based economies, unless the MP/MLA are made ministers it does not matter THAT much if you are part of the ruling government.   In Gao where there is a lot of surplus value to scoop up, even if you are not a minister being a part of the ruling bloc helps you extract financial and political resources through your influence of local regulations.  Given the higher income in Goa, the development funds each MP/MLA gets are not as useful so alternative ways of getting in on the economic activity would have to be found.  On the flip side, parties have a lot more cash to play with to buy MLAs in Goa given the surplus value they can extract from being in government.  So from both a supply and demand point iof view there is just going to be political horsetrading in Goa.

[jaichind]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

This chart highlights another fact.  The 2022 Punjab AAP is a very different formation than the 2017 Punjab AAP.  There has been a very high turnover in terms of AAP candidates from 2017 to 2022.  Part of it is because half of the 2017 AAP winners defected to INC.  But beyond that very few of 2017 AAP non-winners were nominated.  The 2017 AAP candidate list had a lot of activists many of which are youth or even student activists which were signs of AAP as an insurgent party. 

This time around AAP has a lot more local kingpins as indicated by the fact that 50% of AAP candidates have criminal backgrounds.  This is a positive signal for AAP to win.  A student activist insurgent party can win in a once in a long time anti-incumbency wave (like Delhi 2013) but to win in the long run you need to gather a coalition of lost vested interests along with a party cadre.   Candidate with a criminal background, even if it is violent (murder rape) and perhaps because it is violent, implies they have their own organization with a high level of control and influence in the local economic ecosystem.   AAP seems to be adopting the BSP model of getting second-tier local kingpins that can bring some local votes to add to the core AAP vote.  Such candidates add to the AAP core vote based on image and the AAP CM face and build a winning coalition.  All things equal 50% of the AAP candidates having a criminal background is a sign of the AAP transformation and is a fairly positive signal for AAP's chances of winning despite a theoretical candidate quality gap in terms of political expereince relative to INC and SAD.

[jaichind]

UP election phase II is tomorrow.  If phase I is Jat Jatav and Muslim heavy, then phase II is Yadav and Muslim heavy.  Phase II will be the worst for BJP and the best for SP.   If SP-RLD failed to deliver a knockout blow against the BJP in phase I and phase II to build momentum for the later phases then a BJP victory cannot be stopped.

[jaichind]

Tomorrow UP Phase II - 55 Seats

Results from 2019 2017 2014 and 2012.  2014 and 2019 are assembly segment results.

2019 BJP 27 SP 14 BSP 14
2017 BJP 38 SP 15 INC 2
2014 BJP 38 SP 15 INC 2
2012 BJP 8 SP 27 BSP 15 INC 3 OTH 2

[jaichind]

Delhi CM and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal will do a nationally televised interview right before Goa and Uttarakhand vote along with UP phase II.   AAP being able to become a real national party for the 2024 LS election depends on if they can make a real wave in Goa and Uttarakhand as well as a win in Punjab.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/message-for-bjp-in-berth-for-npf-in-nagaland-cabinet/article38401560.ece

"Message for BJP in berth for NPF in Nagaland Cabinet"

In Nagaland, we have a situation where it will be an opposition-less assembly.  In 2018 NDPP split from the ruling NPF and formed an alliance with the BJP to defeat NPF while INC imploded and ceased to be a relevant opposition force.  NDPP-BJP narrowly defeated NPF which went on to be the main opposition.  In the 2019 LS elections, NPF even backed INC to try to defeat the NDPP candidate who did better than expected.  In 2021 all become not so well between NDPP and BJP with both parties being suspicious of each other doing a deal with NPF to backstab the other. 

As the 2023 Nagaland assembly election approaches, it seems the best way to containerize this conflict is to have NPF also join the government to form a NDPP-BJP-NPF government.   So between now and 2023, there will be plenty of spy vs spy between these three parties.  It is clear two of them will gang up on the third but it is not clear which two it will be.  As the 2023 Nagaland assembly election appraoches there will be plenty of space of political drama.

[omar04]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

This chart highlights another fact.  The 2022 Punjab AAP is a very different formation than the 2017 Punjab AAP.  There has been a very high turnover in terms of AAP candidates from 2017 to 2022.  Part of it is because half of the 2017 AAP winners defected to INC.  But beyond that very few of 2017 AAP non-winners were nominated.  The 2017 AAP candidate list had a lot of activists many of which are youth or even student activists which were signs of AAP as an insurgent party. 

This time around AAP has a lot more local kingpins as indicated by the fact that 50% of AAP candidates have criminal backgrounds.  This is a positive signal for AAP to win.  A student activist insurgent party can win in a once in a long time anti-incumbency wave (like Delhi 2013) but to win in the long run you need to gather a coalition of lost vested interests along with a party cadre.   Candidate with a criminal background, even if it is violent (murder rape) and perhaps because it is violent, implies they have their own organization with a high level of control and influence in the local economic ecosystem.   AAP seems to be adopting the BSP model of getting second-tier local kingpins that can bring some local votes to add to the core AAP vote.  Such candidates add to the AAP core vote based on image and the AAP CM face and build a winning coalition.  All things equal 50% of the AAP candidates having a criminal background is a sign of the AAP transformation and is a fairly positive signal for AAP's chances of winning despite a theoretical candidate quality gap in terms of political expereince relative to INC and SAD.

That's a bit depressing considering the circumstances of AAP's founding.

[jaichind]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

This chart highlights another fact.  The 2022 Punjab AAP is a very different formation than the 2017 Punjab AAP.  There has been a very high turnover in terms of AAP candidates from 2017 to 2022.  Part of it is because half of the 2017 AAP winners defected to INC.  But beyond that very few of 2017 AAP non-winners were nominated.  The 2017 AAP candidate list had a lot of activists many of which are youth or even student activists which were signs of AAP as an insurgent party. 

This time around AAP has a lot more local kingpins as indicated by the fact that 50% of AAP candidates have criminal backgrounds.  This is a positive signal for AAP to win.  A student activist insurgent party can win in a once in a long time anti-incumbency wave (like Delhi 2013) but to win in the long run you need to gather a coalition of lost vested interests along with a party cadre.   Candidate with a criminal background, even if it is violent (murder rape) and perhaps because it is violent, implies they have their own organization with a high level of control and influence in the local economic ecosystem.   AAP seems to be adopting the BSP model of getting second-tier local kingpins that can bring some local votes to add to the core AAP vote.  Such candidates add to the AAP core vote based on image and the AAP CM face and build a winning coalition.  All things equal 50% of the AAP candidates having a criminal background is a sign of the AAP transformation and is a fairly positive signal for AAP's chances of winning despite a theoretical candidate quality gap in terms of political expereince relative to INC and SAD.

That's a bit depressing considering the circumstances of AAP's founding.

But that is the only viable way for AAP to win in agriculture-heavy Punjab.  In more urbanized Delhi and Goa AAP has also abandoned the student activist candidates but has more non-criminal power brokers as their candidates.   The AAP still have their brand and core vote.  It is just not enough to win.

[jaichind]

Turnout in UP Phase II, Goa, and Uttarakhand seem to be about the same as their 2017 levels.  BJP and INC sources both seem optimistic about Uttarakhand but in Goa, INC sources are super energized and BJP sources seem more downcast and de facto admitting that INC most likely beat BJP in terms of seats but held out hope that BJP can win the post-election battle to form the government.  Both SP and BJP claim victory in UP Phase II but that is par for the course.  But even BJP sources conceded that the Muslim vote in UP Phase II most likely consolidated around SP but claimed that there is a Hindu counter-consolidation around BJP.

[omar04]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

This chart highlights another fact.  The 2022 Punjab AAP is a very different formation than the 2017 Punjab AAP.  There has been a very high turnover in terms of AAP candidates from 2017 to 2022.  Part of it is because half of the 2017 AAP winners defected to INC.  But beyond that very few of 2017 AAP non-winners were nominated.  The 2017 AAP candidate list had a lot of activists many of which are youth or even student activists which were signs of AAP as an insurgent party. 

This time around AAP has a lot more local kingpins as indicated by the fact that 50% of AAP candidates have criminal backgrounds.  This is a positive signal for AAP to win.  A student activist insurgent party can win in a once in a long time anti-incumbency wave (like Delhi 2013) but to win in the long run you need to gather a coalition of lost vested interests along with a party cadre.   Candidate with a criminal background, even if it is violent (murder rape) and perhaps because it is violent, implies they have their own organization with a high level of control and influence in the local economic ecosystem.   AAP seems to be adopting the BSP model of getting second-tier local kingpins that can bring some local votes to add to the core AAP vote.  Such candidates add to the AAP core vote based on image and the AAP CM face and build a winning coalition.  All things equal 50% of the AAP candidates having a criminal background is a sign of the AAP transformation and is a fairly positive signal for AAP's chances of winning despite a theoretical candidate quality gap in terms of political expereince relative to INC and SAD.

That's a bit depressing considering the circumstances of AAP's founding.

But that is the only viable way for AAP to win in agriculture-heavy Punjab.  In more urbanized Delhi and Goa AAP has also abandoned the student activist candidates but has more non-criminal power brokers as their candidates.   The AAP still have their brand and core vote.  It is just not enough to win.

All true, but recruiting crimelords is pretty far from the purpose of the party at all. Some of Kejriwal's methods (freebies and religious appeals) are pretty base.

[jaichind]

Keys to each UP phase

UP phase 1: Can Jat-Muslim vote fuse behind SP? Will Jatav vote loyally for BSP?
UP phase 2: Will Mulsim vote consolidate behind SP? Will Hindus counter-consolidate behind BJP?
UP phase 3: Will Yadav vote consolidate behind SP? Can BJP get an anti-Yadav consolidation?
UP phase  4-7: Can SP make the election about forward castes vs backward castes? Can BJP contain the Thakur vs Brahmin conflict?

[jaichind]

In UP not all the candidate lists are out but which parties will contest which seats are mostly settled.  Of the 4 major blocs, it is

NDA: BJP 373, AD(S) 15, NISHAD 15
INC: 401 (INC will not contest against SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and PSP(L) leader Shivpal Singh Yadav
 out of courtesy
SP+: SP 346, RLD 33, SBSP 16, AD(K) 2, MD 2, JP(S) 1, NCP 1, PLP(L) 1.  Other Shivpal Singh Yadav
the other PLP(L) candidates will run on the SP symbol.  SP will not contest against INC leader Aradhana Misra to replicate the INC courtesy of not running against Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav given INC UP leader Priyanka Gandhi is not running
BSP: 403

[jaichind]

As promised by Priyanka Gandhi, 40% of INC UP candidates are women.  I do not think INC was able to get as much traction out of this fact in this election as they are doomed to win a single-digit number of seats no matter what but this brand-building could be useful in for 2024 LS and 2027 assembly elections.

[jaichind]

After voting in Uttarakhand, 3 sitting BJP MLAs, 2 from fairly safe BJP seats, and one for a very BJP marginal seat have accused Uttarakhand BJP of having "traitors" that have sabotaged their campaigns. Most likely they sense after the vote that things are not going so well for the BJP.

[locked_out]

Thank you jaichind for your always up-to-date coverage of these elections! Where are you getting your information?

[jaichind]

Thank you jaichind for your always up-to-date coverage of these elections! Where are you getting your information?

Mostly various Indian newswires that are in the form of Twitter, their website, and youtube.  Note that I do get an English-heavy Western Liberal New Delhi-centric view by reading the English language press.  I do follow a bunch of pro-BJP Twitter accounts to balance this clear bias.

[omar04]

After voting in Uttarakhand, 3 sitting BJP MLAs, 2 from fairly safe BJP seats, and one for a very BJP marginal seat have accused Uttarakhand BJP of having "traitors" that have sabotaged their campaigns. Most likely they sense after the vote that things are not going so well for the BJP.

Uttarakhand has been pretty anti incumbent in the past and the dip in turnout is probably also not a good sign for BJP.

https://thewire.in/politics/activists-blame-timing-of-polls-as-uttarakhand-sees-a-3-drop-in-voter-turnout

[jaichind]

After voting in Uttarakhand, 3 sitting BJP MLAs, 2 from fairly safe BJP seats, and one for a very BJP marginal seat have accused Uttarakhand BJP of having "traitors" that have sabotaged their campaigns. Most likely they sense after the vote that things are not going so well for the BJP.

Uttarakhand has been pretty anti incumbent in the past and the dip in turnout is probably also not a good sign for BJP.

https://thewire.in/politics/activists-blame-timing-of-polls-as-uttarakhand-sees-a-3-drop-in-voter-turnout

Pre Modi era higher turnout tends to be a fairly anti-incumbent signal.  During the Modi era, higher turnout tends to be positive for BJP.  Agreed that Uttarakhand (just like TN, Punjab, and Rajasthan) tend to not reelect governments.  But that is only after it became a state.  When Uttarakhand was part of UP INC won the most seats from this area in 1980 1985 and 1989 (even while losing UP overall in 1989) while the BJP won the most seats from this area in 1991 1993 and 1996 (even while narrowly losing UP overall to SP-BSP in 1993). 

Uttarakhand is very Upper caste heavy (good for BJP) but has few Muslims (bad for BJP in terms of using the Mulsim threat to provoke Hindu consolidation).  But it also means Modi is very popular here so the way the BJP can avoid losing is by using the Modi card effectively.  That did not seem to have taken place this time.  The low level of Muslims also makes the race less about communal issues which makes this state much more elastic and results in large swings. 

Despite tough talk from BJP sources, I think more likely than not BJP will lose especially after they switched CM several times during their 2017-2022 rule which is just not a good look.

[jaichind]

A look at the UP minor parties.

AAP - I think they will run candidates in most if not all seats.  Other than getting some Upper caste urban votes that would otherwise go to BJP or INC they have zero impact.  Still given AAP's anti-BJP orientation I suspect they will hurt INC more.

JD(U) - BJP ally in Bihar as part of the ruling alliance.  JD(U) is fairly fearful that the BJP is trying to weaken them in Bihar so they can be swallowed up by the BJP once Bihar JD(U) Nitish Kumar retires. There is now a Cold War between JD(U) and BJP in Bihar even as they are part of the same ruling bloc.  JD(U) is running in UP just to stick it to BJP and show that JD(U) is not just prey for the BJP.   They are going to run around 50 candidates mostly in East UP that borders Bihar.  They will target non-Yadav OBC Kurmi votes.  All things equal this will hit BJP a bit.

JD(L) [Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik)] - This is a new party although its leader Raghuraj Pratap Singh has been in UP politics for a while.  Raghuraj Pratap Singh is a Rajput that comes from a royal family but after joining politics has been more associated with local criminals and is powerful in the Pratapgarh region in Eastern UP.  He has been in and out of jail several times.  Until now 2022 he has been a de facto ally of SP and has been elected several times as a pro-SP independent.  In 2017 proto-JD(L) ran and won 2 seats with SP support.  This time  Raghuraj Pratap Singh formed JD(L) and had decided to go out on his own running in around 100 seats in Eastern UP.  Part of this split with SP is also SP's desire to distance themselves from an image of criminals and lawlessness that Raghuraj Pratap Singh is associated with even though there are plenty of other SP candidates with criminal backgrounds. Given his Rajput background, I think his party is more likely to hurt BJP.

VIP - A Nishad based Bihar party that was a BJP ally in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections but switched to RJD in the 2019 LS Bihar elections before switching back to BJP in 2020 Bihar assembly elections.  Within Bihar NDA they have been moving toward JD(U) and away from BJP recently and are mostly running in Eastern UP to help JD(U) to stick it to BJP.  They are going to run a bunch of candidates in Eastern UP to target Nishad votes which is not good for BJP ally NISHAD is focused on the Nishad vote.  One BJP MLA with a Nishad background that was not re-nominated by the BJP will run as a VIP candidate.

LJP(RS) - Another theoretical BJP ally from Bihar.  LJP is a Bihar-based Dalit party that was part of the NDA alliance.  LJP historically has been anti-JD(U) and last year split between a pro-JD(U) LJP and anti-JD(U) LJP(RS).  LJP is still part of the ruling alliance in Bihar while LJP(RS) is not although LJP(RS) claims to be an ally of BJP at the national level.  LJP(RS) will also run mostly in Eastern UP targeting Dalit votes.  I doubt they will get much and most likely will impact BJP and BSP although I doubt very much.

ASP - Political arm of the Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan led Bhim Army that is a Dalit-based activist group that was famous for their anti-CAA protests back in 2019-2020.  They have some influence over Dalit votes in Western UP and were going to form an alliance with SP but talks broke down.   They are going to run in most if not all seats but realistically will have an impact only in Western UP.  More likely than not they will impact BSP in Western UP.

Left Front - CPI CPM CPI(ML) and AIFB will run.  Historically CPI has been the stronger Left party in UP and will be the senior party but their strength has drained away years ago.  I doubt they will get any significant amount of votes anywhere.

AIMIM - Telangana-based Muslim party that has been trying to expand into Northern India with mixed success.  During the last couple of election cycles, PECP has been the UP Muslim party but they seem not to be that active this cycle so AIMIM is really the Muslim party in UP this year.  Realistically AIMIM can only make an impact in Western UP where Muslims are more numerous.  SP this time around is making a gamble of not nominating that many Muslim candidates and just letting the Muslim vote come to SP just to stop BJP.  BSP which is running a lot of Muslim candidates in Western UP which could further split the Muslim vote.  Going by what took place in the UP phase 1 and 2 the SP bet seems to be paying off and AIMIM and the BSP Muslim candidates are not getting much.  This is not necessarily bad news for BJP since this could also trigger a Hindu consolidation around BJP. We will know for sure vote counting day.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/message-for-bjp-in-berth-for-npf-in-nagaland-cabinet/article38401560.ece

"Message for BJP in berth for NPF in Nagaland Cabinet"

In Nagaland, we have a situation where it will be an opposition-less assembly.  In 2018 NDPP split from the ruling NPF and formed an alliance with the BJP to defeat NPF while INC imploded and ceased to be a relevant opposition force.  NDPP-BJP narrowly defeated NPF which went on to be the main opposition.  In the 2019 LS elections, NPF even backed INC to try to defeat the NDPP candidate who did better than expected.  In 2021 all become not so well between NDPP and BJP with both parties being suspicious of each other doing a deal with NPF to backstab the other. 

As the 2023 Nagaland assembly election approaches, it seems the best way to containerize this conflict is to have NPF also join the government to form a NDPP-BJP-NPF government.   So between now and 2023, there will be plenty of spy vs spy between these three parties.  It is clear two of them will gang up on the third but it is not clear which two it will be.  As the 2023 Nagaland assembly election appraoches there will be plenty of space of political drama.

https://nenow.in/north-east-news/manipur/manipur-elections-2022-npf-nagaland-cm-campaigns-naga-areas.html

"Manipur elections 2022: Top NPF leadership, Nagaland CM campaign in Naga dominated areas"

NPF invited former NPF leaders and now leaders of NPF splinter NDPP and Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio to campaign for NPF in Naga seats that NPF is contesting in Manipur.  Note these seats are de facto BJP vs INC vs NPF or BJP vs INC vs NPF vs NPP.  This sends that signal that even though back in 2018 NDPP "backstabbed" NPF by splitting out to form an alliance with BJP to win power, these days NPF and NDPP are getting closer with the de facto target of their alliance clearly being the BJP.

The spy vs spy battles continues.

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/wont-let-up-bihar-delhi-de-bhaiye-enter-punjab-charanjit-channis-controversial-comments-on-priyanka-gandhi-on-stage-2437169.html

"'Won't let UP, Bihar, Delhi de bhaiye enter Punjab': Charanjit Channi's controversial comments with Priyanka Gandhi on stage"

Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi courted trouble when he said that he will not people from UP Bihar and Delhi into Punjab.  He was mostly tried to tie AAP to Delhi and BJP to UP/Bihar by projecting them as non-Punjab parties.  But he used the bhaiye to refer to Hindi heartland Indians which can be considered offensive.

I guess this is similar to UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath a few days back warning that if BJP loses in UP then UP will turn into Kerala or WB.  Kerala and WB have a fairly high number of Muslims which are often politically decisive.  What Yogi Adityanath is implying is that if BJP loses in UP then the UP Muslims will take over

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/yogi-adityanath-defends-his-up-can-become-like-bengal-kerala-remark-says-i-alerted-people-of-my-state/articleshow/89555987.cms

"Yogi Adityanath defends his 'UP can become like Bengal, Kerala' remark, says I alerted people of my state"

[jaichind]

Even though UP phase 3 voting is coming up INC UP de facto leader Priyanka Gandhi is campaigning in Punjab.  This is reflective of the fact that phases 2 and 3 are in areas where INC is very weak.  In phase 1 I think INC has perhaps 3-4 seats where it is sort of in the running that that number falls to around 2 per phase in phase 2 and phase 3.  In phase 4 INC gets a bit stronger and in phase 5 and phase 6 are the phases where INC has seats where it is viable.  I think as soon as phase 4 heats up Priyanka Gandhi will head back to focus on UP again.  Still, this is not a good look UP INC when its leader Priyanka Gandhi is campaigning in another state.