India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Since the last election in Goa, 26 out of 40 MLAs have changed parties, many of them several times.

[jaichind]

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/politics/story/eci-changes-punjab-polling-date-to-feb-20-due-to-guru-ravidas-jayanti-319328-2022-01-17

"ECI changes Punjab polling date to Feb 20 due to Guru Ravidas Jayanti"

Punjab INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi suggested to ECI that election day gets changed due to Guru Ravidas Jayanti birth anniversary of Feb 16th.  Many Sikh Dalits, of which INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi is one, would travel to various holy sites in UP during this period.   It seems ECI accepted this proposal.

[jaichind]

India TV UP poll

BJP+   233
SP+    162
INC        5
BSP        3
Others    1

This poll has SP+ making gains in Eastern UP but making more limited gains in Western UP.  The SP+ gains in Western UP are less than expected given the SP-RLD alliance and the Jat vote going to SP given the farm protests.  On the whole, given the chaos of churn in Eastern UP, Western UP should be easier to poll than Eastern UP since Western UP is much more bipolar between SP-RLD and BJP.  So regional breakdown of this poll is fairly positive for the BJP even taking into account that polls such as this should overestimate BJP.


Two Uttarakhand polls

Zee News
       Seat     Vote share
INC   35          40%
BJP   33          38%
AAP    1          11%
OTH    1           9%


Republic
         Seat  Vote share
BJP     39      39.9%
INC     28      37.5%
AAP       1     13.1%
OTH      2       9.5%

I think INC is on its way to winning back Uttarakhand especially when I suspect both BJP and AAP are overpolling.

[jaichind]

Republic poll for UP

               Seat    Vote share
BJP+         263         41.3%
SP+          122         33.1%
BSP            12         13.1%
INC              6           6.9%

Massive landslide for BJP.  The anti-BJP vote is split between SP+ BSP and INC.

Unlike the India TV UP poll this poll has Western UP much closer and Eastern UP with a BJP blowout.  Under the rule that Western UP is easier to poll and Eastern UP is harder to poll, I do not think this poll is THAT much different from the India TV UP poll.  Namely, BJP+ has the edge but SP+ is not out of it.

[jaichind]

Republic poll for Punjab

         Seat    Vote share
AAP      54         37.8%
INC      46         35.1%
SAD+   15         15.8%
BJP+      2           5.7%

Hung assembly.  On these numbers, I think AAP should get a majority.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republic poll for Punjab

         Seat    Vote share
AAP      54         37.8%
INC      46         35.1%
SAD+   15         15.8%
BJP+      2           5.7%

Hung assembly.  On these numbers, I think AAP should get a majority.

How is the BJP doing compared to last time

[jaichind]

Republic poll for Punjab

         Seat    Vote share
AAP      54         37.8%
INC      46         35.1%
SAD+   15         15.8%
BJP+      2           5.7%

Hung assembly.  On these numbers, I think AAP should get a majority.

How is the BJP doing compared to last time

Punjab is clearly bad for BJP.  First BJP has limited appeal to Sikh and Punjab Hindus are very Dalit heavy which made them more pro-INC.  BJP made up for this by having an alliance with SAD.  Due to now aborted new farm law and farmer protests the BJP brand got toxic in Punjab and SAD broke off its alliance with BJP.  BJP is now alone but did sign up former INC CM Amarinder Singh's PLC and SAD splinter SAD(S) as its allies.  But by the number of seats PLC and SAD(S) are being allocated it seems neither party will bring up. 

So this time around BJP+ will be a weak 4th front to INC, AAP, and SAD-BSP.  But as I mentioned before there do seems to be some INC MLAs that are defecting to BJP which just shows that the BJP brand is not totally toxic.  I expect BJP+ to close in on a ~10% vote share and have an impact on the election but have zero chance at being a relevent post-election party.

[jaichind]

More Republic polls


Goa   
              Seats  Vote share 
BJP           18         30%
INC-GFP    11         22%
AAP            6         17%
MAG-AITC   3         12%
OTH            2         19%


Manipur
              Seats   Vote share
BJP+        34           39%
INC          16           29%
NPP            6           14%
NPF            3             6%
OTH           1            12%

I think both polls are likely to overestimate the incumbent BJP but the BJP will have the edge in post-election maneuvering in case of a hung assembly, especially in Manipur.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-bjp-chief-sanjay-jaiswal-warns-nitish-kumar-party-jdu-stay-within-limits-2712684

""Stay Within Limits Or Else...": Bihar BJP Chief Warns Nitish Kumar's Party"

Tensions seem to be rising in Bihar between BJP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U).  Part of the reason is that ex-RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha who is now back in JD(U) and quickly becoming a top JD(U) leader again has been sniping with the BJP.  Upendra Kushwaha split from JD(U) forming RLSP in 2013 and forming an alliance with BJP when Nitish Kumar broke JD(U) alliance with BJP later that year.  After the 2017 BJP UP landslide, JD(U) came back to be a BJP ally which meant that RLSP left the alliance to join up with RJD.  After RLDP did poorly in 2019 in alliance with RJD and 2020 running by itself he merged RLSP with JD(U) with a Nitish Kumar who was looking for additional support to counter the growing power of the BJP after the 2020 assembly election. 

It seems now Upendra Kushwaha is leading the JD(U) conflict with the BJP.  If the BJP does badly in the UP assembly elections I can see Nitish Kumar and Upendra Kushwaha reading the same tea leaves as in 2017 after the BJP landslide could look to form their own front or rejoin their old alliance with RJD.  Everything now depends on UP assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/uttar-pradesh-assembly-polls-2022/story/after-much-hype-over-ayodhya-why-is-bjp-fielding-yogi-adityanath-from-gorakhpur-1900480-2022-01-15

"After much hype over Ayodhya, why is BJP fielding Yogi Adityanath from Gorakhpur"

BJP CM Yogi Adityanath had insisted on running from Ayodhya but after a bunch of talks behind the scene the BJP high command (read Amit Shah) allocated Yogi Adityanath to his home district of Gorakhpur where he served as MP for several terms.

The reason seems to be that in the 2024 LS elections the BJP has planned to make Ayodhya and its new Ram temple to be the center of the BJP campaign.    If  Yogi Adityanath can claim Ayodhya for himself in the 2022 assembly elections then he can try to claim part of the BJP leadership in the 2024 LS elections when it is meant to be allocated to Modi and Amit Shah.  Amit Shah's fear of Yogi Adityanath trying to upstage him as the natural successor to Modi for 2029 led him to reject Yogi Adityanath's attempt to run in Ayodhya.  In many ways, the first battle for the successor of Modi between Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath is already starting.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/assembly-election-2022-live-updates-punjab-uttar-pradesh-uttarakhand-manipur-goa-7727029/

"Assembly Election 2022 Live Updates: Bhim Army chief rules out alliance with SP, to contest UP polls alone"

Looks like alliance talks between SP and the Bhim Army chief Chandra Shekhar Aazad led ASP failed. Chandra Shekhar Aazad is a Dalit youth icon that was at the forefront of the Western UP anti-CAA protests.  Despite all the talk by Chandra Shekhar Aazad about SP not being committed to social justice leading to failure of talks, it is clear the reason for the failure of talks is seat sharing.  Despite brave talk of 25 seats, It seems behind the scenes the ASP wanted 4-5 seats at the minimum in Western UP but SP already gave away a lot of Western UP seats to RLD and cannot accommodate more than 1-2 for ASP.  As a result, the talks failed and ASP will run alone.

[jaichind]

In Uttarakhand, BJP MLA Harak Singh Rawat might defect back to INC due to BJP not being willing to give a ticket to his daughter-in-law.  Harak Singh Rawat was a significant INC leader but took a bunch of INC MLAs to defect to BJP because INC was not willing to appoint him to be CM.  Now he is openly barging for more power for his family or else he will go back to INC and I assume take back some of the ex-INC and now BJP MLAs.  

I do like the fact that he is open about this versus trying to hide behind some made-up ideological reasons for these defections and counter-defections.

https://www.jagran.com/uttarakhand/dehradun-city-22386701.html

The problem for the BJP is if they accommodate Harak Singh Rawat then other local BJP factions will object and them might in turn rebel.

It seems BJP struck first and expelled Harak Singh Rawat from BJP which cut the legs of his negotiations position with INC.  Worst for him, the INC campaign is being led by former INC CM Harish Rawat who Harak Singh Rawat's 2016 rebellion and defection to BJP tried to overthrow.  So now Harak Singh Rawat has to beg for forgiveness from Harish Rawat before being let back into INC and run on the INC ticket.  This fact leads to articles like

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/harish-rawat-is-my-elder-brother-can-apologise-to-him-a-100-times-expelled-uttarakhand-bjp-minister-harak-singh/850556

"Harish Rawat is my elder brother, can apologise to him a 100 times: Expelled Uttarakhand BJP minister Harak Singh"

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/aap-to-announce-its-cm-candidate-for-punjab-polls-in-hours-from-now-issues-detailed-schedule-362293

"Bhagwant Mann is AAP’s CM candidate for Punjab polls"

AAP projects Bhagwant Mann as its CM face in Punjab.  There was no real alternative but  AAP leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal dragged this out just to show that he is the top dog in AAP and that he made the call to make Bhagwant Mann AAP CM face for Punjab.

In the meantime the INC internal battle continues

https://indianexpress.com/elections/%EF%BB%BFcongress-video-channi-next-punjab-cm-7728475/

"Congress Twitter handle posts video projecting Channi as CM face in Punjab"

It is clear eventually INC will either project no one or just project INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi as the CM face while Punjab INC Prez  Navjot Singh Sidhu continues to snipe in the background.  The lack of unity will continue to dog INC in the rest of the campaign.

[jaichind]

This AAP video that just came out which I guess takes a scene from some movie is quite good and funny.  It shows INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi and Navjot Singh Sidhu fighting each other for the Punjab CM seat (represented by the women) and then AAP CM face Bhagwant Mann appears to be the true claimant much to the pleasure of Arvind Kejriwal and anger of Rahul Gandhi

https://twitter.com/i/status/1483337152742461444

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/goa-elections-2022-ncp-shiv-sena-to-contest-in-alliance-says-sanjay-raut-congress-to-fight-goa-election-alone-1506699

"Goa Elections 2022: NCP & Shiv Sena To Contest In Alliance, Congress To Fight Alone"

This seems to mimic the rest of the 2022 Maharashtra municipal elections like BMC where SHS and NCP will have an alliance and INC which is part of the MVA SHS-NCP-INC government in Maharashtra will run by itself.  So for the critical 2022 BMC elections, it will be SHS-NCP vs BJP vs INC where INC will be in a poor third and the main battle will be SHS-NCP vs BJP.

In Goa at least the good news for INC is that NCP and SHS do not have much of a base.  The only real NCP face in Goa which is former INC CM Churchill Alemao already defected to AITC leaving NCP with pretty much nothing in Goa.  So the NCP-SHS alliance in Goa will not really impact INC that much.

[jaichind]

In Punjab, it seems the NDA seat allocation will be

BJP        63
PLC       36
SAD(S)  14
LIF          4

PLC and especially SAD(S) are getting more seats than I would expect.  It seems the BJP has very little confidence in its ability to get Sikh votes and has decided to concentrate on Hindu seats.  LIF is the Bains brothers outfit.  The Bains brothers are local power brokers in the Ludhiana region that were pro-SAD and anti-INC.  In 2012 they decide to go out on their own and in 2017 formed LIF which had an alliance with AAP.  It was not clear where they will end up this time although most likely not INC or SAD where they burned their bridges so it was going to be either AAP or BJP.  It seems they made a deal with the BJP.  The Bains brothers won their 2 pocket borough seats in 2012 and 2017 and I guess by getting LIF in NDA they are going to get these 2 seats as well. 

One positive side effect of the INC leadership chaos that led to INC CM Amarinder Singh being ousted and then forming PLC is that he took a lot of the anti-incumbency energy with him.  Amarinder Singh has clear strengths with the Sikh Jat vote in the Patiala region so the BJP is wise to get him but by dumping Amarinder Singh and getting Charanjit Singh Channi INC got rid of some of the anti-incumbency and got a chance to corner the Sikh Dalit vote which is quite sizable.   Charanjit Singh Channi turned out to be a fairly competent CM and a good communicator and is not viewed as an affirmative action hire (like Kamala Harris) so the Sikh Jat blowback onto INC by having a Sikh Dalit as CM did not seem to be as big as it could have been.   I think the continued leadership chaos in INC will cost the INC this election to AAP but the same chaos actually helped them dump the anti-incumbency blowback onto BJP via PLC.

[jaichind]

In UP the SP alliance seat allocation is getting more clear.  It seems RLD will get 36 seats (all in Jat Western UP) and Sanjay Chauhan's JP(S) (OBC Kashyap caste party) will get 3 seats.  It is unofficial but NCP will get 3 seats as part of a deal that NCP patriarch and Maharastra politics kingpin Sharad Pawar Shaward will actively campaign for SP and help it get anti-BJP votes from INC.   PLP(S) (SP splinter, Yadav cate party) will get 6 (Shivpal Singh Yadav plus 5 of his cronies it seems), and AD(K) (Kurmi caste party) will get 2 but both will run under the SP symbol.  Not clear how many seats RJD (most likely 1-2) or SBSP (OBC Rajbhar caste party) (at least 10 in my view) will get.  Also not clear how many MD (Maurya caste party) will get (most likely 2-3) but MD will run on the SP symbol.

On the BJP side, it seems NISHAD (Nishad caste party) will get 15 seats while it is not clear how many AD(S)  (Kurmi  caste party) will get (I figure around 10-15.)

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Nagar Panchayat (rural local elections) results (number of seats won)

BJP    416
NCP   378
SHS   301
INC    297
OTH   262

Just like such elections in the past the 4 main parties run separately regardless of their statewide alliances

Historically NCP is very strong in rural elections while SHS is very weak in rural elections.  These results are fairly similar to the one 4 years ago.  Usually, the ruling parties (NCP SHS INC) overperform in these polls but the unusually grand alliance of SHS-NCP-INC at the state level means anti-incumbency votes should all go to BJP.  It seems these two factions cancel each other out.  On the whole, these results are going to be disappointing to the BJP who had expected to capture the entire opposition space.

2024 LS I suspect it will be SHS-NCP vs BJP vs INC with perhaps some tactical understanding between SHS-NCP and INC.  Unless there is another Modi wave it seems BJP will do OK but not great with this sort of lineup.  

SHS and NCP are natural allies.  SHS is strong in urban areas, especially Mumbai, and stronger in Western Maharashtra while NCP is strong in rural areas, very weak in Mumbai, and stronger in Eastern Maharashtra.   So there is very little duplication of support between SHS and NCP.   From a geographic distribution of support of view, INC is the natural enemy of SHS while BJP is the natural enemy of NCP.

[jaichind]

What is ironic about the growing SHS-NCP alliance is that NCP founder Sharad Pawar was the leader of INC(S) which was the main opposition party in Maharashtra to INC in the 1980s merged INC(S) in 1987 citing his fear of a growing SHS in the state.  He, later on, split from INC again in 1999 forming NCP only to form an alliance with INC soon afterward.  Now the same Sharad Pawar that was fearful of a rising SHS to the point where he merged his INC(S) with INC is in an ever closer alliance with SHS.  Of course, the real core issue in 1987 was that  Sharad Pawar saw no chance of INC(S) beating INC so he decided to join INC to get a share of power.  Now he is much more fearful of the BJP so an alliance with SHS makes sense to beat back BJP.

[jaichind]

Even though with BJP-SP polarization INC is doomed to have a poor result I do think that Priyanka Gandhi is playing a poor hand in a smart way that could have dividends a few election cycles down the road.  It is clear that the SP strategy is to corner the Muslim and anti-BJP vote by projecting itself as the only alternative to the BJP.   The INC could just counter by being more Muslim and more anti-BJP than SP which would just push Upper Caste and OBC vote toward BJP.

Instead Priyanka Gandhi is trying to remake the INC brand as the women empowerment party.  She mostly concluded that the old INC base from the 1980s is mostly gone so there is no point trying to recreate that base.  When you have nothing to lose is when you can do something out of the box.  It will not generate any seats but I do want praise Priyanka Gandhi's attempt to recreate the INC brand which could pay off in a couple of election cycles.

[jaichind]

Zee News UP poll

           Seats   Vote share
BJP+     255        41%
SP+      135        34%
BSP          6        10%
INC          4          6%
OTH         3          9%

Solid BJP win where BJP keeps its 2017 vote share

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/up-elections-2022-samajwadi-party-patriarch-mulayam-singh-yadavs-brother-in-law-pramod-gupta-joins-bjp/articleshow/89012860.cms

"UP polls: ​Mulayam Singh Yadav's brother-in-law Pramod Gupta joins BJP"

After SP leader Akhilesh Yadav's sister-in-law, Aparna Yadav joined BJP his father  ​Mulayam Singh Yadav's brother-in-law also joins BJP.

This is really part II of the Yadav family civil war from 2017 when it was  Akhilesh Yadav vs his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav.  Akhilesh Yadav is the son of  Mulayam Singh Yadav's first wife who became de facto comatose after giving birth to Akhilesh.  Mulayam Singh Yadav then proceeded to have an affair with another woman who gave birth to his second son Prateek Yadav.  After his first wife, and mother of Akhilesh Yadav, finally died years later did Mulayam Singh Yadav admit to the affair, married his mistress and accepted  Prateek Yadav as his son.  In 2017 Akhilesh Yadav battled his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav for control of the party who had the de facto support of Mulayam Singh Yadav's wife and her family (Prateek Yadav, his wife Aparna Yadav, and her brother Pramod Gupta).  Akhilesh Yadav won that battle in 2017 and Shivpal Singh Yadav left SP to form PSP(L).  Mulayam Singh Yadav convinced his son, daughter-in-law, and brother-in-law not to leave.  Recently Shivpal Singh Yadav patched up with Akhilesh Yadav and accepted Akhilesh Yadav as the leader of the Yadav clan.  Seeing that there is no alternative to Akhilesh Yadav being the top dog going forward the people associated with Mulayam Singh Yadav's second wife are leaving for the BJP.

Even though this will not cost SP any Yadav votes as people like Prateek Yadav, his wife Aparna Yadav, and Pramod Gupta have no mass base unlike Shivpal Singh Yadav news this does add to the BJP image momentum and are defections worth having for news cycle management.

[jaichind]

BJP came out with most of their candidates in Goa and Uttarakhand.  As a whole, it is an impressive list very focused on winnability.  I think BJP is doing a good job with candidate selection and if they lose either state it will be because of macro anti-incumbency factors versus poor candidate selection.  BJP being a cadre party and less vulnerable to pressure tactics from local kingpins is once again showing up as a strength relative to its rivals.

[eos]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/aap-to-announce-its-cm-candidate-for-punjab-polls-in-hours-from-now-issues-detailed-schedule-362293

"Bhagwant Mann is AAP’s CM candidate for Punjab polls"

AAP projects Bhagwant Mann as its CM face in Punjab.  There was no real alternative but  AAP leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal dragged this out just to show that he is the top dog in AAP and that he made the call to make Bhagwant Mann AAP CM face for Punjab.

In the meantime the INC internal battle continues

https://indianexpress.com/elections/%EF%BB%BFcongress-video-channi-next-punjab-cm-7728475/

"Congress Twitter handle posts video projecting Channi as CM face in Punjab"

It is clear eventually INC will either project no one or just project INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi as the CM face while Punjab INC Prez  Navjot Singh Sidhu continues to snipe in the background.  The lack of unity will continue to dog INC in the rest of the campaign.

What happens if Congress wins and Channi continues as CM? Will Sidhu accept the decision? I suspect not. Or could Sidhu come out on top? Congress might lose anyway, but victory will also prompt a lot of hardship for the party.

[jaichind]

What happens if Congress wins and Channi continues as CM? Will Sidhu accept the decision? I suspect not. Or could Sidhu come out on top? Congress might lose anyway, but victory will also prompt a lot of hardship for the party.

I think he will continue snipping.  He feels emboldened to do so as long as he still has a connection with Priyanka Gandhi.  This election will test the theory "there is no such thing as bad PR."  One potentially positive side-effect of the Navjot Singh Sidhu "rebellion" is that it is sucking up media attention away from AAP and especially SAD.  In many ways, Navjot Singh Sidhu is becoming the "opposition" in Punjab.  Most likely this will blow up in INC's face.  In 2017 UP you can say that Akhilesh Yadav vs Shivpal Singh Yadav battles ate up a lof media attention from BJP but BJP still won in a landslide.  Of course, 2017 BJP has Modi and AAP does not have anything remotely similar.

One game theory thought on Punjab is that SAD has the most to lose if AAP wins and most to gain if INC wins.  If AAP wins while  Charanjit Singh Channi helps INC corner the Sikh Dalit vote would clearly put SAD in a permeate weak third in the state.  If INC wins the double anti-incumbency in 2027 might create an AAP vs SAD election with INC with a weak third.  In other words for SAD's survival, it is best if INC wins this election.  If AAP wins with INC in a strong second and SAD in a weak third I can see SAD crawling back to BJP just to survive.