India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Assuming BJP loses Tripura and Karnataka in early 2023 this would be the map of where NDA forms the government.  The BJP as a West party is clear.  It is even more clear since later in 2023 it is almost certain that BJP will capture Rajasthan.  NDA is in power in the Northeast because BJP is the natural party governance at the federal level and the Northeast states need federal subsidies.

Note that Meghalaya is not labeled as NDA because the ruling NPP and BJP already broke up their alliance and will be running against each other in the upcoming assembly elections.  With INC imploding there the NPP is viewing the BJP as a bigger threat.  It would not be surprising for a NPP-INC alliance there.  The main drawback for NPP would be the continued need for federal subsidies.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/sukhvinder-singh-sukhu-to-be-next-himachal-cm-mukesh-agnihotri-his-deputy-1170473.html

"Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu to be next Himachal CM, Mukesh Agnihotri his deputy"

Pratibha Singh, widow of 6-time INC CM Virbhadra Singh, lost her battle to become INC CM of HP.

[jaichind]

C-Voter Gujarat post-election survey

                         BJP        INC          AAP
Urban                55           28            9
Semi-urban        54           27           13
Rural                 49           27           17

BJP is stronger in urban areas (not a surprise) but AAP is stronger in rural areas which is a surprise.  INC counted on the AAP to cut into the BJP urban vote but instead cut into the INC rural vote.

[jaichind]

More C-Voter Gujarat post-election survey for certain demographic groups

           Dalit      Bhil     Other     Leuva     Karwa       Muslims
                      Tribes   Tribes    Patidars   Patidars
BJP       46        47         37         51          58             24
INC       32       28         26         31           28             50
AAP      11        21         31         14            6             18

BJP clearly overperformed with Dalits and Muslims which was part of its landslide victory

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share, the 2022 anti-BJP vote seems similar to 2012.  The main difference is that in 2022 the anti-BJP vote was split between INC and AAP while in 2012 it was the BJP vote that was split between BJP and the BJP Patidars splinter GPP.

If you look at vote share by regions



I broke out Ahmadabad from Central Gujarat due to the much higher income there relative to the rest of Central Gujarat.
It seems the Patidar rebellion has left its mark with the anti-BJP vote share in Saurashtra staying higher than in 2012.  The rest of Central Gujarat has shifted away from the anti-BJP.  Other than that 2022 anti-BJP vote really looks like the 2012 INC+ vote.

Anti-BJP vote (INC+ plus AAP in 2022, INC+ in 2017 and 2012)
                             2022          2017           2012
Kutch                      39.4          45.0            40.0
North Gujarat          44.0          47.5            45.4
Saurashtra              45.8          46.4            37.8
Ahmadabad             35.0          37.1            33.5
Central Gujarat        38.4          41.7            42.0
South Gujarat          39.1          40.4            37.4
Total                       41.1          43.3             39.6

[jaichind]

With Gujarat and HP assembly elections over, we are done with assembly elections for 2022.

This means I can update my chart of vote share by party/bloc.  The idea is to calculate at the end of each year the vote share of each party/bloc base on the last assembly election of each state.

The parties/blocs are

BJP
INC
BJP S - BJP splinters (RLP, JVM (since merged back into BJP), etc)
INC S - INC splinters (NCP AITC YSRCP NPP KEC factions etc)
Janata - Janata parties (SP JD(U) RJD BJD JD(S) LJP etc)
Left - Left parties (CPM CPI RSP AIFB CPI(M)(ML) SUCI etc)
Dalit - Dalit parties (BSP BMP RPI splinters, etc)
AAP

BJP is on a secular rise and INC is on a secular decline.  Of course, it is the Left and Dalit parties that the BJP is really eating into over time.  INC might be in bad shape but it is still a bit higher than BJP was in 2012, right before Modi took over BJP.

INC nows looks like the BJP in the early 1990s.  Still very relevant and powerful in parts of India but can only come to power by forming alliances with other parties as equals to stop the dominate party from coming to power.

Year     BJP       INC     BJP S  INC S   Janata      Left     Dalit    AAP
2022 29.63% 17.84% 0.32% 9.33% 11.72%   2.98% 3.72% 2.66%
2021 29.09% 19.52% 0.32% 9.43% 10.07%   3.07% 4.97% 1.50%
2020 26.56% 20.68% 0.33% 8.86% 10.32%   4.83% 5.07% 1.53%
2019 26.83% 20.67% 0.33% 8.94% 10.05%   4.77% 5.15% 1.52%
2018 26.45% 21.17% 0.40% 8.71% 10.15%   4.85% 5.08% 1.54%
2017 25.81% 20.00% 0.90% 9.05% 10.34%   4.98% 5.20% 1.50%
2016 21.87% 20.68% 1.28% 9.46% 11.37%   5.15% 5.50% 0.89%
2015 21.06% 21.03% 1.33% 8.68% 11.74%   6.32% 5.73% 0.92%
2014 20.53% 21.56% 1.36% 8.89% 11.27%   6.41% 5.90% 0.46%
2013 18.30% 24.52% 1.33% 6.41% 11.31%   6.78% 6.17% 0.44%
2012 17.16% 23.98% 0.88% 6.47% 11.80%   7.11% 6.83% 0.00%
2011 17.23% 23.93% 0.59% 6.78% 10.73%   7.58% 6.51% 0.00%
2010 17.43% 24.40% 0.60% 5.25% 11.05%   7.72% 6.66% 0.00%
2009 17.40% 24.47% 0.61% 5.23% 11.00%   7.82% 6.75% 0.00%
2008 17.80% 24.76% 0.44% 5.17% 11.18%   8.12% 7.00% 0.00%
2007 17.83% 24.58% 0.26% 5.49% 11.79%   8.16% 6.52% 0.00%
2006 18.03% 24.34% 0.61% 5.74% 12.00%   8.25% 5.60% 0.00%
2005 18.68% 24.05% 0.62% 6.54% 12.40%   7.70% 5.59% 0.00%
2004 18.37% 23.93% 0.58% 6.69% 12.75%   7.87% 5.46% 0.00%
2003 18.28% 24.68% 0.60% 6.93% 12.79%   8.15% 5.07% 0.00%
2002 17.10% 25.32% 0.49% 6.81% 13.02%   8.43% 4.93% 0.00%
2001 18.38% 24.49% 0.51% 6.84% 12.89%   8.73% 4.54% 0.00%
2000 18.57% 27.49% 0.51% 4.04% 12.96%   8.76% 4.50% 0.00%
1999 17.98% 28.15% 0.51% 4.17% 12.18%   8.88% 4.40% 0.00%
1998 17.60% 27.08% 0.51% 2.55% 13.12%   9.24% 4.68% 0.00%
1997 17.57% 26.42% 0.00% 2.48% 13.46%   9.34% 4.72% 0.00%
1996 17.82% 26.56% 0.00% 2.53% 13.73%   9.45% 4.73% 0.00%
1995 17.65% 29.12% 0.00% 1.35% 14.19%   9.27% 2.83% 0.00%
1994 17.30% 29.25% 0.00% 1.48% 15.74%   9.67% 2.97% 0.00%
1993 16.47% 31.38% 0.00% 1.04% 16.00%   9.67% 2.87% 0.00%
1992 14.18% 31.34% 0.00% 1.13% 16.89% 10.37% 2.03% 0.00%
1991 13.94% 31.37% 0.00% 1.11% 16.67% 10.31% 1.84% 0.00%
1990 10.36% 32.94% 0.00% 0.81% 17.10%   9.96% 1.82% 0.00%
1989   7.62% 37.79% 0.00% 2.22% 13.90% 10.76% 1.54% 0.00%
1988   7.47% 37.96% 0.00% 2.86% 13.22% 11.80% 0.16% 0.00%
1987   7.48% 37.93% 0.00% 2.86% 13.24% 11.78% 0.16% 0.00%
1986   7.44% 37.28% 0.00% 3.57% 13.35% 10.70% 0.16% 0.00%
1985   7.44% 37.28% 0.00% 3.57% 13.35% 10.70% 0.16% 0.00%
1984   7.78% 35.83% 0.00% 5.66% 13.44% 11.81% 0.24% 0.00%
1983   7.87% 36.44% 0.00% 5.83% 13.73% 12.00% 0.23% 0.00%
1982   7.03% 36.18% 0.00% 8.45% 17.42% 12.13% 0.27% 0.00%
1981   6.72% 35.04% 0.00% 8.62% 20.12% 10.10% 0.29% 0.00%
1980   6.72% 35.04% 0.00% 8.62% 20.12% 10.10% 0.29% 0.00%
1979   0.38% 28.05% 0.00% 8.18% 31.49% 10.34% 0.38% 0.00%

2022 vote share by region.  

As usual, I break India up into language groups
Hindi
Indo-Aryan (Non-Hindi)
Sino-Tibetian
Dravidian

                          BJP       INC     BJP S    INC S   Janata      Left     Dalit    AAP
Hindi               36.79% 19.49% 0.76%   0.56%  21.23%   1.20%  6.80% 2.31%
Indo-Aryan      34.39% 19.17% 0.01%  16.06%   7.24%   2.50%  1.80% 4.45%
Sino-Tibetian   22.98% 18.08% 0.00%  16.64%   5.37%   0.02%  0.43% 0.15%
Dravidian          4.50% 11.43% 0.00%  15.17%   0.40%   8.19%  1.02%  0.01%

INC only party/bloc that is double digits in all 4 areas.  BJP is very strong in Hindi and non-Hindu Indo-Aryan areas.  INC splinters are active only outside of Hindi areas.  Janata is strong in Hindi areas.  Dalit parties are only really relevant in Hindi areas.  Left parties are still relevant in Dravidian areas but have lost their Indo-Aryan base.  AAP becoming eleven in Indo-Aryan states.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/gujarat-headache-for-aap-five-party-mlas-in-touch-with-bjp-article-96148643

"Gujarat headache for AAP: 'Five party MLAs in touch with BJP'"

It seems all 5 Gujarat AAP MLAs might defect as a group to BJP.  3 of them were former BJP members and got the AAP ticket because they failed to get the BJP ticket.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/gujarat-aap-mla-bhupat-bhayani-on-joining-bjp-assembly-election-result-2307865-2022-12-11

"Won't join BJP, will support it from outside if public wants: Gujarat AAP MLA Bhupat Bhayani"

One of the Gujarat AAP MLAs openly said that he believes in the BJP/RSS ideology and will find ways to support BJP even if he does not defect to BJP.

If the AAP MLAs defect to BJP then in 2027 most of the INC vote that went to AAP will most likely go back to INC.

[jaichind]

INC's vote share in the HP assembly election of 44.16% is the highest for INC here since 1993.
Of course, INC's vote share in the Gujarat assembly election of 27.72% is the lowest every for INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/may/26/anxiety-grips-gujarat-congress-over-final-yes-from-naresh-patel-2458052.html

"Anxiety grips Gujarat Congress over final ‘yes’ from Naresh Patel"

It seems Naresh Patel will make a call on his entry into politics by end of May.  After  Hardik Patel's departure from Gujarat INC, it seems the INC is putting all their eggs in the Naresh Patel basket to be their CM face for the assembly election end of the year.

https://theprint.in/opinion/politically-correct/membership-puzzle-for-modi-7-cr-new-bjp-members-enrolled-but-not-many-voting-in-elections/1261232/

Long before he detached himself from politics and went on the Bharat Jodo Yatra, he had virtually ensured that the Patidars also detached themselves from Congress. According to party insiders, influential Patidar leader and chairman of Khodaldham Trust, Naresh Patel, had come to Delhi to meet the Congress leader. He had laid out certain conditions for his alignment with Congress. Insiders say that Gandhi made Patel wait for half an hour before showing up. He heard Patel silently, then got up with an ‘ok’ and left. Patel never heard from him again. Weeks later, in October 2022, the Patidar leader called on Modi. The rest is history.

It seems Rahul Gandhi messed up again.  The only hope INC had of having a CM face in Gujarat was Naresh Patel.  INC insiders are saying that Rahul Gandhi made him wait 30 minutes for a meeting and was dismissive of what Naresh Patel conditions for joining INC and being the CM face for INC in Gujarat.

[jaichind]

All 3 HP BJP rebels that were elected will back the INC government.  That is how the game is played.  In 2027 if, as likely, it seems BJP will have the upper hand all 3 will try to find their way back to the BJP who will mostly take them if they are seen was winnable candidates.

[jaichind]

Income/capita map by district for Southern India

Bengaluru and Hyderabad are high as expected. Kerela overall is high as expected.   Hyderabad being so high was the main driver for the Telangana movement where it was felt that the wealth of Hyderabad was being used for coastal AP and not for the Telangana region which Hyderabad is in theory part of.

I am surprised by how low Chennai is relative to other urban centers.  Coastal TN is low when compared to inland TN which is a surprise.  North Karnataka is low when compared to the more commercial South Karnataka.  Far East AP is more like Odisha which makes their levels low.

[jaichind]

Income/capita of UP.  I always said that Eastern UP was like Bihar while Western UP was like Haryana with the middle in between.  Lucknow clearly is higher as an urban center despite being in the middle.  Noida is de facto a suburb of Delhi so it is fairly high.  My main surprise here is how high Bundelkhand is relative toe Eastern Up.  I would think Bundelkhand would be the same as Eastern UP but it is clearly higher.

[jaichind]

For HP, if you look at the regional breakdown of results you can see why Pratibha Singh was not selected to be CM.  

I used mostly the LS map for HP as the starting point.  The main problem is the LS map is drawn to make sure each LS seat has 17 assembly seats and the boundaries mostly correspond to political-cultural clusters.


HP is very geographically diverse with high mountains in the east followed by a sharp drop as you head West into hills and then the plain section.  The LS map mostly corresponds to this with Mandi
 as the hill area while Hamirpur Shimla and Kangra are the plains section.


I shifted some of the assembly districts between the 4 LS seats to more correspond to geographical facts and created a section called Mountain where there are 3 Mountain seats.

If you look at INC vote share and seats won by each section for 2022 2017 2012 you get
                
                       2022      2017       2012          2022       2017         2012
Kangra           43.44%  40.68%  41.52%          11            4              11
Hamirpur       48.55%   45.69%  43.82%            9            6               6
Shimla           45.42%   44.32%  43.44%         14             9               9
Mandi            38.63%   37.69%  41.59%           3             1               7
Mountian       49.89%   41.25%  51.34%           3             1               3
Total             44.16%   42.06%   42.81%         40           21              36

Pratibha Singh is the current INC MP for Mandi (which she won via a by-election.) The chart shows that it was in the hills Mandi region that INC failed to regain lost ground from 2012 levels.  Mandi is also the region where the BJP mostly kept their 2017 seat share.  Shimla and Mandi are areas of traditional INC strength so the Mandi results are disappointing to INC.
INC instead, choose Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu who is from the Hamirpur region where INC made massive gains in vote share and solid seat gains in this election.  So the choice was mostly about who made the most gains in their respective region.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/tripura-bjp-panels-polls-ipft-alliance-8321596/

"Tripura BJP sets up panels ahead of polls, keeps ally IPFT waiting on alliance"

In Tripura, there is a chance that BJP will dump its tribal ally IPFT.  I can see a situation where BJP tries to rope in INC tribal splinter TIPRA which has been surging in tribal areas.  Of course, TIPRA will demand that BJP gets on board TIPRA's idea of a separate Tipraland state idea which will in turn create blowback in the Bengali areas of Tripura.

I think BJP's panels are to figure out
a) Is it even possible for the BJP bloc to win any seats in the 20 tribal seats with an alliance with IPFT or TIPRA?
b) If a) is yes what is the blowback on the 40 Bengali majority seats if BJP allies with TIPRA.

[jaichind]

Tripura BJP will continue with its alliance with IPFT in next year’s Assembly polls.  The ground reality is majority of IPFT workers have joined TIPRA.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/will-fight-2025-polls-under-tejashwi-says-nitish-in-baton-change-hints-1171403.html

"Will fight 2025 polls under Tejashwi, says Nitish in baton change hints"

This comment sorts of confirms the nature of the RJD-JD(U) alliance deal back in the summer.  That is in the 2025 Bihar assembly election it will be RJD's Tejashwi Yadav that will lead the RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance while Nitish Kumar will try to play a more national role.  The entire JD(U) vote is based on the Nitish Kumar brand as they are fairly weak on the ground.  I suspect some second-tier JD(U) leaders will start to defect to BJP over the next couple of years as RJD eats up the JD(U) without Nitish Kumar.

[omar04]

Income/capita map by district for Southern India

Bengaluru and Hyderabad are high as expected. Kerela overall is high as expected.   Hyderabad being so high was the main driver for the Telangana movement where it was felt that the wealth of Hyderabad was being used for coastal AP and not for the Telangana region which Hyderabad is in theory part of.

I am surprised by how low Chennai is relative to other urban centers.  Coastal TN is low when compared to inland TN which is a surprise.  North Karnataka is low when compared to the more commercial South Karnataka.  Far East AP is more like Odisha which makes their levels low.

Chennai's white collar jobs are declining quantitatively and qualitatively although it's obviously more complex than that: https://www.reddit.com/r/Chennai/comments/w56ujh/is_tn_declining_overall/

[jaichind]

That's a wrap for 2022.

2023 assembly elections are in
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=534465.0