India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/karnataka-news/amid-hijabs-vs-saffron-scarves-karnataka-bans-clothes-that-disturb-law-2751408

"Amid Hijab vs Saffron Scarves, Karnataka Bans "Clothes That Disturb Law""

Escalating battles in Karnataka over a college that banned the hijab as part of its dress code.  This provoked Muslim students to protest by wearing the hijab and Hindu students counter-protesting by wearing saffron scarves across the state.

It seems even some students in a USA college are wearing the hijab in protest the dress code.


These sorts of battles only help the BJP in the 2023 assembly elections that it was likely and still likely to lose.

[randomusername]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)

In this scenario, what do you think would happen? Would AAP or Congress be able to successfully poach enough MLAs for a majority, form an alliance with each other or SAD, or eventually hold another election in the fall?

[jaichind]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)

In this scenario, what do you think would happen? Would AAP or Congress be able to successfully poach enough MLAs for a majority, form an alliance with each other or SAD, or eventually hold another election in the fall?

Almost certainly another election.  Any party of (INC AAP SAD) that accepts being a junior party in a coalition government will be completely smashed in the next election which is likely to take place in a year or two anyway.  None of them will take this risk and after a few weeks of useless talks and posturing, there will be another election.

[eos]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)

In this scenario, what do you think would happen? Would AAP or Congress be able to successfully poach enough MLAs for a majority, form an alliance with each other or SAD, or eventually hold another election in the fall?

Almost certainly another election.  Any party of (INC AAP SAD) that accepts being a junior party in a coalition government will be completely smashed in the next election which is likely to take place in a year or two anyway.  None of them will take this risk and after a few weeks of useless talks and posturing, there will be another election.

Would a hung assembly and another election possibly benefit Navjhot Singh Siddhu?

[jaichind]

Would a hung assembly and another election possibly benefit Navjhot Singh Siddhu?

I doubt it. He is not even that popular.

The same Zee Punjab poll had a question on the best CM

Bhagwant Mann(AAP)            38%
Charanjit Singh Channi(INC)  34%
Sukhbir Singh Badal(SAD)     20%
Navjot Singh Sidhu(INC)         5%
Capt Amarinder Singh(BJP+)   3%

Besides, I do not know why Navjot Singh Sidhu wants to be CM.  He has no real executive or administrative experience.  At best he becomes a PR person like UP CM Yogi Adityanath and a bunch of bureaucrats run the state.  He is much more suited to operate at the national level.

[jaichind]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)

Some more comments on this poll.  30% vote share is a disaster for INC and I am shocked that they are only 1 seat off AAP.  The vote share distribution seems to indicate that there are a bunch of seats (most likely Sikh Jat heavy seats) where it is an AAP-SAD battle with INC in a poor third while INC mostly sweeps the Hindu seats.  I still think that the BJP+ is underestimated and is very likely to exceed 10% vote share.

[eos]

Would a hung assembly and another election possibly benefit Navjhot Singh Siddhu?

I doubt it. He is not even that popular.

The same Zee Punjab poll had a question on the best CM

Bhagwant Mann(AAP)            38%
Charanjit Singh Channi(INC)  34%
Sukhbir Singh Badal(SAD)     20%
Navjot Singh Sidhu(INC)         5%
Capt Amarinder Singh(BJP+)   3%

Besides, I do not know why Navjot Singh Sidhu wants to be CM.  He has no real executive or administrative experience.  At best he becomes a PR person like UP CM Yogi Adityanath and a bunch of bureaucrats run the state.  He is much more suited to operate at the national level.

Well, that man's ambitions knows no bounds. I am sure he thinks he is the best man for the job. 

https://indianexpress.com/elections/punjab-polls-those-at-the-top-want-a-weak-cm-says-sidhu-7756863/

Amid indications that the Congress, following a tele-survey, is set to name Charanjit Singh Channi as its chief ministerial face ahead of the Assembly polls in Punjab, party’s state unit president Navjot Singh Sidhu triggered a row saying those at top want a “weak CM ” who will toe their line.

Sidhu, who returned from Vaishno Devi shrine Thursday evening, was addressing a public function in Amritsar. His remarks were widely perceived to be directed at the Congress high command, even though Sidhu’s media advisers denied it.

“The top wants a weak CM. They want a CM who will sing their tunes. Naach meri bulbul tujhe paisa milage (Dance, my bulbul, you will get money),” Sidhu said as his supporters raised slogans, “Hamara CM kaisa ho, Navjot Sidhu jaisa ho.

If there is another election, I am sure he will try to marginalise Channi. Not sure what the INC can do about it. He is somewhat unpredictable.

[jaichind]

Not all the candidate lists are out for Manipur but most of them are.  I looked over them.  There has been a lot of candidate churn like Goa.  The BJP has a clear advantage in terms of candidate quality.  NPP and JD(U) both are going all out to make an impact in a big way.   JD(U) has attracted a bunch of defectors from all sorts of different parties that failed to get BJP tickets.  NPP is running in a bunch of non-tribal areas unlike in 2017.

In urban areas, it is mostly going to be BJP vs INC.  In Naga areas, it will be BJP vs INC vs NPF while in some non-Naga tribal areas it will be BJP vs INC vs NPP although NPP does have a couple of high-quality candidates in Naga areas as well.  JD(U) is mostly focused in urban areas and could spring a couple of surprises given the strong lineup they managed to recruit.  Of course, JD(U) is a de facto BJP B team where the couple JD(U) winners most likely will join BJP as soon as it is clear that the BJP will form the government.

Unlike Goa and Uttarakhand, there does not seem to be as much anti-incumbency wave in Manipur so BJP most likely should be able to ride its candidate quality advantage to victory and either win a majorty or be able to from a majority with JD(U) NPP and NPF backing post-election.

[jaichind]

In Punjab INC and AAP are spreading rumors that post-election SAD and BJP might re-form their alliance.  I guess both INC and AAP internal surveys are showing SAD surging in rural areas and both parties want to counter this by bringing up the BJP bogeyman due to the anti-BJP sentiment in rural Punjab over the now-defunct farm reform bills.

[jaichind]

In Punjab, Rahul Gandhi announces Charanjit Singh Channi as the INC CM candidate.   Navjot Singh Sidhu was present at the announcement and seems to have publically accepted this decision.  We will see what he does in the coming days.

This will most likely see some forward caste Sikh votes move away from INC but will further consolidate the Sikh Dalit vote for INC.  The total Dalit population in Punjab (Sikh and Hindu) most likely exceed 1/3 of the total population.  INC can now look forward to getting close to a super majority of these votes.  Some Hindu Dalit votes will go BSP but even that is reduced by this move.

[jaichind]

The wife vs wife battle from 2017 Amethi will continue in 2022 but inside the BJP.

Write-up from 2017

In the Rahul Gandhi's pocket borough of Amethi we are most likely to  see a battle of "Wife vs Wife."  
Everything centers around one Sanjay Singh who is from the Amethi royal family and is known as "Raja of Amethi."  



Sanjay Singh was in the INC in the 1970s and 1980s and was quite close to the Gandhi clan.  When his relative and former INC UP CM VP Singh bolted from INC and formed JD he defected to JD and was a member of the VP Singh JD cabinet.  He then defected to BJP and won from Amethi in the 1998 LS election.  He even ran against Sonia Gandhi on the BJP ticket in 1999 in a losing effort.    Later he defected back to the INC and became a key member of the INC team in UP.  He is currently an INC MP in the RS.

Sanjay Singh is married to one Garima Singh



But back in 1988 Sanjay Singh was implicated in the murder of his good friend and famous badminton player Syed Modi.  It seems that Sanjay Singh was having an affair with Syed Modi's wife Amita Kulkarni and both of them plotted to murder Syed Modi.  

Picture of Sanjay Singh with Amita Kulkarni.


In the end Sanjay Singh and Amita Kulkarni were acquitted of murder charges after years of investigations and trials.  

Sanjay Singh then proceeded divorce his current wife Garima Singh and married Amita Kulkarni.   Garima Singh claims that the divorce was not final and claims that Sanjay Singh's marriage to Amita Kulkarni is null and void.  Sanjay Singh and then tried to get the courts to throw Garima Singh and their children out of the palace he lives in.



And is an ongoing court case.  

Anyway.  It seems that Garima Singh has joined BJP who will field her in the Amethi seats.  Amita Kulkarni as Sanjay Singh's de facto wife won in Amethi in 2002 running for BJP and won in 2007 running for INC.  She ran as INC candidate in 2012 and lost to SP.   SP-INC alliance will most likely grant Amethi to INC who will most likely field Amita Kulkarni.  So the election will be "Wife vs Wife."

Wife #1 BJP Garima Singh defeated Wife #2 INC Amita Kulkarni in 2017.  In 2019 Sanjay Singh and wife #2 Amita Kulkarni rejoined BJP.  Wife #2 Amita Kulkarni is looking for be nominated by the BJP for the  Amethi seat while Wife #1 Garima Singh is looking to be re-nominated  So now it is a rerun of 2017 wife vs wife battle but within the BJP nomination process.

In the wife vs wife BJP primary for the Amethi, the winner is the husband.  BJP decides to go with Sanjay Singh as the BJP candidate over both his wives as a way to break the deadlock.  Reasonable compromise.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times final Goa poll

INC-GFP    18
BJP           15
MGP-AITC   3
AAP            1
Others        3

Others at 3 mean Utpal Parrikar, son of former BJP CM that passed away, and running as a BJP rebel with MGP-AITC and SHS support most likely won.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times final poll on Manipur

BJP       25
INC       19
NPP        8
NPF        4
Other     4 (I have to assume at least 2 of the 4 are JD(U)

Clear post-election BJP goverment

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times final poll on Uttarakhand

INC          37
BJP          31
APP           0
Others       2 (almost certain to be INC and BJP rebels)

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times final poll on Punjab

INC                     44
AAP                     41
SAD-BSP             26
BJP-PLC-SAD(S)     3
Others                   3 (2 of the 3 most be the Bains brothers' LIP)

[jaichind]

Karnataka battle of religious garbs continues

First, in response to Muslim girls protesting the banning of  Hijab in classrooms at a private college by wearing  Hijabs. 

We have Hindu students across Karnataka counter-protests wearing saffron scarfs in school
https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1490636344183648258


Which merely triggered counter-counter-protest by Dalits students wearing blue scarfs in school
https://twitter.com/Sankul333/status/1490583720234913792

Saffron is the color of Hinduism and blue is the color of Dalit empowerment.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times final UP poll

BJP+         224
SP+          162
BSP            11
INC              4
Others          2

[jaichind]

The Democracy Times polls are roughly where I think the election is at this moment.  I do think they are underestimating BJP in Manipur and AAP in Punjab.

[jaichind]

In the wife vs wife BJP primary for the Amethi, the winner is the husband.  BJP decides to go with Sanjay Singh as the BJP candidate over both his wives as a way to break the deadlock.  Reasonable compromise.

BTW, the last time Sanjay Singh ran for this assembly seat was in 1985 as the INC candidate.  To this date, his victory still holds the record for most lopsided contested election in Indian assembly election history

Amethi 1985 assembly election
INC  (Sanjay Singh)               98.3%
BJP                                        1.3%

The history of the Raja of Amethi family and INC/Gandhi family is an interesting one.  The old Raja of Amethi was pro-BJS in the 1960s mostly because  Indira Gandhi made a move to take away all promised pensions for the various ex-royals in the late 1960s.  In 1977 in order to try to make his backward Amethi a VIP constituency and get more government funding the old Raja of Amethi switched to INC and lobbied to get Indira Gandhi's son political heir Sanjay Gandhi to contest in Amethi in the 1977 LS elections.  Sanjay Gandhi picked Amethi to run in 1977 and lost in the 1977 epic Janata landslide.  But Sanjay Gandhi came back on won in 1980 before his untimely death in a plane accident.  But during this time the scion of the House of Amethi Raja Sanjay Singh cemented his relationship with the Gandhi family and INC.  He ran in the 1980 UP election in the Amethi assembly and won as INC candidate.

Indira Gandhi called in his non-political son Rajiv Gandhi to come into politics and run in the by-election for the Amethi LS seat.  Sanjay Gandhi's widow Maneka Gandhi objected to his as she saw herself as Sanjay Gandhi's political heir and not Rajiv Gandhi.  Rajiv Gandhi won that by-election.  In 1988 Sanjay Singh had a falling out with Rajiv Gandhi and joined the new JD.  Later in the 1990s he joined the BJP and won the Amethi LS seat in 1998 as the BJP candidate.  In 1999 he ran against Sonia Gandhi who was looking to reclaim her husband's old seat and lost badly.  In 2003 he rejoined the INC only to rejoin BJP in 2019 after the BJP LS landslide victory in UP.

[jaichind]

With voting set to start on Feb 10th, all the pollsters will be pushing out their final polls.

[jaichind]

Final Jan Ki Batt UP poll

BJP+ vote share set to rise to 42.5% beating back an anti-BJP consolidation behind SP+.  BSP and INC getting destroyed along the way.




Key issues
Caste & Religion : 35%
Law & Order : 25%
Unemployment : 11%
Welfare measures : 16%
Others : 13%.

Very BJP friendly set of key issues



Jat vote split 60/40 between SP+ and BJP+ which means BJP clawed back a bunch of Jat votes it lost due to farm protests.

[jaichind]

Final Jan Ki Batt Punjab poll

INC vote share holds up due to Dalit consolidation but anti-INC vote consolidates around AAP to defeat INC.  No sign of the SAD surge other polls is seeing.  I think BJP+ at 7% is an underestimate.

[jaichind]

Final Jan Ki Batt Uttarakhand poll

It seems they have AAP cutting into the anti-BJP vote to give the BJP a narrow victory

[jaichind]

Final ABP CVoter UP poll

Seat projection.  Somewhat narrow BJP win.  BSP and INC squeezed but not totally crushed.


Vote share by region


Seats by Region

(Jat and Yadav heavy, BJP beating back the farm protest Jat shift to SP+)
Seats in Western UP region (Total Seats-136):
BJP+71-75
SP+ 53-57
BSP 4-6
Congress- 1-3
Others-0-2

(INC used to have some strength here but it seems most of it is gone)
Seat Projection in Awadh region (Total Seats-118):
BJP+ 71-75
SP+ 41-45
BSP 1-3
Congress 0-1
Others 0-1

(Old BJP stronghold - very backward area)
Seat Projection in Bundelkhand region (Total Seats-19):
BJP+ 13-17
SP+ 2-6
BSP 0-1
Congress- 0-1
Others-0-1


(Land of the non-Yadav OBC)
Seats in Purvanchal region (Total Seats-130)
BJP+ 66-70
SP+ 48-52
BSP 5- 7
Congress- 1-3
Others-3-5

[jaichind]

Final ABP CVoter Manipur poll

           Seats   Vote Share
BJP        23         34%
INC       19          28%
NPF        8          10%       
Others   10         28%

BJP not doing as well as I would expect.  It seems a lot of votes are going to NPP and JD(U) leading to a very splintered result.