India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat-India News poll for Punjab

AAP wins narrow majority.  BJP+ vote share at 7%-8% pretty impressive.  There numbers looks ugly for SAD+

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat-India News poll for Uttarakhand

Narrow majority for BJP.  AAP at 2-5 seats means AAP is cutting into the anti-BJP vote.

[jaichind]

Lokpoll poll on Manipur

BJP        25
INC        23
NPF         5
NPP         3
OTH        4

Narrow BJP lead over INC.  Clearly the post-election scenario is totally on the BJP side.  INC has to aim at absolute majority or else it will be a BJP government.

[jaichind]

More fun Goa party turnover info:  

Out of the 17 INC MLAs that won in 2017

10 will run for BJP
3 joined BJP but was not nominated and will run as independent
1 joined AITC but then decided not to run
1 joined AITC but was not nominated by AITC and will run as an independent
1 retired but his daughter-in-law will run for BJP
1 solitary INC MLA will actually run for INC


Out of the 6 2017 INC candidates that came in second

2 will run for INC
1 will run for BJP
1 retired
1 was not renominated, threatened to rebel but was convinced to stand down
1 will run as GFP (which is an INC ally so this candidate seems to be on loan from INC to GFP)


Out of the 10 2017 INC candidates that came in third

8 were not re-nominated and will not run
1 will run for AITC
1 defected to BJP but was not nominated and will run as independent


It is clear that BJP was mostly targeting winnable INC candidates to defect which would make sense.

Of course, these INC to BJP defections caused secondary effects.  Out of the 10 INC MLAs that defected to BJP the BJP came in second in 9 of them.  Out of these 9 2017 BJP second-place finishers

3 will run as AAP
3 will run as BJP rebels
2 will stand down
1 will run as AITC

[jaichind]

Zee news Goa poll

INC-GFP     18
BJP            17
MGP-AITC    3
AAP             1
Others         1

Looks like all those defections that BJP scooped up are not helping it get to a majority and are now in a tight neck-to-neck battle with INC.

[jaichind]

ABP CVoter Western UP Opinion Poll Vote Share versus last week

Further polarization around BJP and SP-RLD.  If this BJP vote share holds up then it seems that the farm protests have not impacted BJP that much.

[jaichind]

ABP CVoter UP vote share weekly tracking poll.  All parties gain from undecides.  SP+ gains the most but is still well behind BJP+.  INC is stagnating and seems to be ripe to lose votes on election day due to tactical voting (most likely for SP+)

[jaichind]

LokPoll poll for Uttarakhand

INC       36
BJP       30
Others    4

Narrow INC win.

[jaichind]

I looked over the Uttarakhand BJP and INC candidate list.  There is a high level of candidate continuity from 2017.  Out of the 70 seats

BJP ran

44 2017 BJP candidates (including 41 2017 winners)
4 2017 INC rebels (including 2 2017 winners)
3 2017 INC candidates
1 2017 BJP rebel
18 new candidates (including a wife of a 2017 BJP winner which we can view as a proxy candidate)

INC ran

38 2017 INC candidates (including 9 2017 winners)
4 2017 BJP candidates (including 3 2017 winners)
4 2017 INC rebels
2 2017 BJP rebels
1 2017 BSP candidate
21 new candidates

The BJP has an edge in candidate quality but the INC candidate quality ended up being pretty good considering it was redueced to 11 seats out of 70 in 2017

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Goa poll

               Seat   Vote share
INC-GFP    19          31%
BJP           16          35%
MAG-AITC   3          12%
AAP            2          10%



It is surprising that INC-GFP can be ahead of BJP with AAP winning 2 seats.  The way for the INC-GFP can be ahead of BJP is the consolidation of the anti-BJP vote which would imply that AAP will get near zero seats.

From the vote share breakdown, it seems that MAG-AITC is the main opposition in parts of OBC North Goa while INC is the main opposition in the rest especially more Christian South Goa leading to BJP winning the popular vote 35-31 over INC-GFP but still losing the seat count.

[jaichind]

In Punjab 4 candidates of former INC CM Amarinder Singh PLC party running in urban areas have asked to run under the BJP symbol instead of the PLC symbol.   This is a sign that the BJP brand, while very bad in rural Punjab, is most likely still positive in urban Punjab.  All this seems to indicate that BJP-PLC-SAD(S) could spring a surprise and go above 10% vote share making the election a true 4 way battle between INC AAP SAD-BSP and BJP-PLC-SAD(S).

[jaichind]

Ground Zero poll for Uttarakhand

BJP    34
INC    34
AAP      1
Others  1

Virtual tie between BJP and INC. 

Ground Zero tends to have a pro-INC house bias.  If it was not for that a virtual tie between BJP and INC should mean a solid INC win.

[jaichind]

Ground Zoro poll for Punjab

INC           52
SAD-BSP   31
AAP          30
BJP+          2
Others        2 (LIF?)

AAP underperformance and SAD-BSP overperformance.  If this turns out to be true there might be a need for another electon.  SAD and AAP will be too big for INC to break and neither will take the risk of backing an INC government which would mean their votes will flow to INC next election.   

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/uttar-pradesh/bjp-declared-assets-worth-rs-4847-cr-in-2019-20-bsp-second-at-rs-698-crore-adr/articleshow/89178525.cms

"BJP declared assets worth Rs 4,847 cr in 2019-20, BSP second at Rs 698 crore: ADR"

BJP assets are now around $700 million

 

[jaichind]

https://nenow.in/north-east-news/manipur/manipur-assembly-polls-angry-bjp-supports-burn-effigies-of-modi-biren-singh-vandalize-party-offices.html

"Manipur Assembly polls: Angry BJP supporters burn effigies of Modi, Biren Singh, vandalize party offices"

BJP just came out with their list of candidates in Manipur.  It seems there are a lot of defectors from INC and other parties as well as relatives of key BJP leaders in the state.  As a result, there was an explosion of BJP party workers' protests.  The same place took place in 2016 Assam when the BJP-AGP alliance was formed and a bunch of seats was given to AGP as well as 2021 WB when the BJP list of candidates contained a large number of AITC, Left Front, and INC defectors.  This did not hurt BJP in 2016 but clearly, it seems might have hurt BJP in 2021 WB.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Punjab poll vote share by each community.

Note that the massive INC lead with Sikh Dalits.  Also, note that the INC lead in Hindu areas is totally made up of its advantage with Hindu Dalits.  SAD is strong with Sikh Jats while AAP tends to be catchall party.  BJP+ is strong with non-Dalit Hindus but very weak with Jat Sikh which means former INC CM Amarinder Singh's PLC is not cutting into the INC Sikh Jat base.  SAD-BSP doing so bad with Hindu Dalits shows that BSP is totally losing the Hindu Dalit vote to INC.  SSM is a new party based on farmer protests.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Punjab poll breakout by region

[jaichind]

Ground Zero UP poll

BJP+    243
SP+     149
BSP         5
INC         4
Others     2

BJP defeats SP despite anti-BJP consolidation around SP

[jaichind]

Ground Zero UP poll

BJP+    243
SP+     149
BSP         5
INC         4
Others     2

BJP defeats SP despite anti-BJP consolidation around SP

These vote shares indicate that BJP successfully ate into the BSP Dalit base to counter the anti-BJP consolidation around SP


BJP wins the Brahman vote despite Brahman-Thakor tensions.   As expected BJP sweeps Thakor and other Upper Caste votes.  SP sweeps Yadav and most of the Jat vote but BJP does keep a good part of the Jat vote.  BJP has the edge with Kurmi due to its alliance with AD(S).  BJP sweeps Nishad votes due to alliance with NISHAD while SP does well with Rajbhar vote due to alliance with SBSP.  BSP keeps the Jatav vote but BJP crushes BSP and INC with non-Jatav Dalits while SP consolidates the Muslim vote.  All things equal BJP wins the battle of non-Yadav OBC which gives it victory over SP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/for-mathura-yogi-adityanaths-temple-push-is-focus-of-the-campaign-2739153

"In Mathura, Muslim Dosa Cart-Owner Changes Name - It's A Sign Of The Times
UP Election: The Mathura temple dispute has become a central part of BJP's campaign to extend its grip on power in Uttar Pradesh."

Now that the Ayodhya issue has been resolved in favor of the Hindus where a Ram Temple is being built it seems BJP is shifting toward another hotspot where there is a dispute between Hindu and Muslims.

I generally support the Hindus on these issues mostly because where a Hindu temple is located is central to the Hindu belief system while it really does not matter to Muslims where a masque is located.  But I think the Hindu nationalists should just have a central list of grievances to be resolved.  What seems to be going on is that they are just milking these conflicts for political benefit by focusing on these disputes one at a time.  Is clear that is what is going on but I was always willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on it.  Now that benefit of doubt is wearing thin.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab-election/punjab-polls-bikram-majithia-to-fight-only-from-amritsar-east-366163

"Punjab polls: Majithia to fight only from Amritsar East"

Leader of the SAD youth wing, and arguable #2 in SAD to SAD leader and CM candidate Sukhbir Singh Badal, Bikram Singh Majithia will contest in Amritsar East only against INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu.  His wife will contest in his old Majithia seat.  A bold move that is meant to project SAD as the main alternative to INC as opposed to AAP.

[jaichind]

Regional breakdown of Ground Zero poll on UP

Jats breaking for SP-RLD but not in a lopsided way plus non-Jatav Dalits breaking for BJP mean that SP-RLD will keep it close but still behind BJP


This is Yadav heavy area and not a surprise SP has an edge here.  How small that edge does speak to the BJP lead overall


This area is where INC used to be strong but has been shifting to BJP 


The traditional area of BJP strength so a BJP blowout here in this very backward area is not a surprise


This is the land of the non-Yadav OBC and it seems the BJP has won it



Historical proposal of breaking up UP that has been on and off over the decades.  Here Rohilkhand and Western UP are meant to form one of 4 states.

[jaichind]

Asia Elects poll has BJP trending downward in UP but still with majority.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/budget/rise-in-capex-will-create-jobs-bring-in-more-investment-pm-7754011/

"Rise in capex will create jobs, bring in more investment: PM Modi’s address to BJP after Budget"

If you dig deep into the new Indian federal budget it is clear that it is shifting around resources in a way that the burden in dealing with the current jobs crisis falls to states and away from the federal government.    On the one hand, the states are in a better position to figure out how best to spend to accelerate job intensive recovery.    On the other hand, it is a very clever plan to help the BJP in the 2024 LS elections at the expense of state governments.   If so this could entrench the trend of BJP outperforming in LS elections while BJP state governments become more and more vulnerable to anti-incumbency anger when they run for re-election.

[jaichind]

Zee News final Punjab poll has SAD+ surging at the expense of AAP leading to a completely deadlocked assembly.

               Seats     Vote share
AAP           41             34%
INC           40              30%
SAD+        27              25%
BJP+          5                 6%
Others        4                 5% (2 of the 4 must be LIF)