Danish General Election: 1 November 2022
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  Danish General Election: 1 November 2022
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Diouf
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« Reply #200 on: November 06, 2022, 10:09:37 AM »
« edited: December 13, 2022, 01:13:47 PM by Diouf »

New Right went forward to 3.7% and 6 seats (+2). All four incumbent MPs got safely reelected. Their two new MPs are Kim Edberg Andersen + Mikkel Bjørn. Edberg is a former DPP councillor, who almost got elected for his former party in 2019 despite DPP losing many seats. He again ran an impressive and expensive campaign, and received 5 218 personal votes. Mikkel Bjørn led New Right Youth from 2016-2021. Vermund has reneged on her earlier promise of only sitting two terms, so they don't necessary have to prepare a new leader for the next campaign. Lars Boje Mathiesen did really well in Eastern Jutland with 11 150 personal votes, and is perhaps the best candidate if she does decide not to continue.

Alternative progressed slightly to 3.3% and 6 seats (+1). They did so much better in Copenhagen than in the rest of the country, that they ended up getting two of their six seats in Copenhagen. This means their entire group in the Copenhagen City Council is changed, as their two newly elected MPs are their two current councillors, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde and 25-year old political science student Christina Olumeko. Theresa Scavenius is elected for the party in Northern Jutland. She finished 2nd in the Alternative leadership election in 2020, and then afterwards left the party like many others. She founded her own party, Momentum, which never really got off the ground, and as a part of the late green consolidation, the party folded into the Alternative.

DPP stayed in parliament with 2.6% and 5 seats, their worst ever result. Most of the party's MPs had already left the party, so it was only Rene Christensen and Susanne Eilersen who lost their seats at the election in the direct battles for their party's few seats. Parliamentary group leader Christensen got fewer votes than party founder Pia Kjærsgaard in the Zealand district, while Eilersen lost out to the party's MEP and deputy leader Peter Kofod in Southern Jutland. With Kofod entering parliament, his good friend and ex-MEP Anders Vistisen will instead return to the European Parliament. In eastern Jutland, a new MP enters parliament as councillor Nick Zimmermann is elected. After the exodus earlier this year, there should finally be calm in the party. However, Messerschmidt's re-trial will start soon, and if sentenced again, there could be renewed doubt over his leadership position, with Kofod being in charge, at least temporarily.

Independent Greens received 0.9% in their first election. They did manage to do well at some of the most immigrant polling places in or around Copenhagen, Odense and Aarhus, but it hasn't managed to expand much beyond that. Even in big cities like Aalborg and Esbjerg, they barely get any votes. And while the immigrant vote outside Copenhagen and Aarhus is perhaps generally better integrated and less likely to vote for a immigrant party, they should still be able to do much better in the rest of the country than they did. It could make sense with a name change, and ditching the last parts of the intersectional ideas, and make a more coherent message with full focus on the immigration question. There seem to be very few votes in the woke stuff. In Eastern Jutland, the somewhat prominent Niko Grünfeld, a former ex-Alternative mayor in Copenhagen, only got 377 votes, while Mohamed Abdikarim got 752 votes.

Christian Democrats were really close in 2019, but this time dropped all the way back to 0.5%, their worst result ever. They had a real chance to go for the pragmatic, centrist party position with Arendt and Rohde, but instead went back into abortion infighting and total irrelevance while Løkke boomed in the centrist position. There's still an established party organization, and they did well in the 2021 local and regional elections (winning 12 local and 1 regional councillor) before Arendt and Rohde left, so they will probably continue. But in this election, they had very little relevance.
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Diouf
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« Reply #201 on: November 07, 2022, 11:46:25 AM »

After a record high number of MPs shifting parliament in the recent term, we start out this one with the first change already six days after the election. The New Right's Mette Thiesen has left the party to become an independent. This seems mostly based in personal relations. Thiesen's boyfriend had several times acted in a threatening way towards New Right employees, and she was told in strong terms not to bring him to the election night party. She did anyway, and he ended up assaulting a New Right employee and was carried away from the party. The party's executive committee was to meet today to discuss the question and possible sanctions, and she just announced before the meeting that she's leaving the party.

Marianne Karlsmose has resigned as leader of the Christian Democrats, and has proposed that the party no longer tries to run for parliament, but focuses on local and regional elections. This comes after the party's worst election result since its founding in 1970. An extraordinary conference is likely to be called soon, which will elect a new leader and probably discuss whether to collect signatures for a new attempt to enter parliament.

Today there was another round of government negotiations. This time with focus on health policy. No additional parties have left the negotiations. I intend to continue updates in this thread until we have a new government, and then create a new generel elections and politics thread.
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xelas81
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« Reply #202 on: November 07, 2022, 12:05:03 PM »

Bergur Løkke Rasmussen (yes, the son of a certain ex-Liberal politician)

Is there any reason why he hasn't followed his father to the Moderates?
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ingemann
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« Reply #203 on: November 07, 2022, 03:16:41 PM »

Bergur Løkke Rasmussen (yes, the son of a certain ex-Liberal politician)

Is there any reason why he hasn't followed his father to the Moderates?

If I had to guess, the Moderates are unlikely to survive long term, Bergur is young and if he want a long political career, he’s better off staying in the Liberals.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #204 on: November 07, 2022, 05:44:19 PM »

Thanks for all your detailed updates, Diouf - they are invaluable.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #205 on: November 07, 2022, 05:45:12 PM »

Thanks for all your detailed updates, Diouf - they are invaluable.
I would like to re-double these sentiments.
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Diouf
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« Reply #206 on: November 09, 2022, 01:07:20 PM »

Frederik Hjorth has created this analysis of the parties' support according to population density in the polling places. The x axis is population density, the y axis is support, the size of the bubble is determined by number of voters at the polling place.


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Diouf
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« Reply #207 on: November 09, 2022, 01:31:15 PM »

Kasper Løvkvist has written an analysis of the split in the Liberals around joining a government or not.

He says the division is different from the normal ones around a rural and an urban wing. This is more between a younger battle-ready wing and an older, more pragmatic wing. The first group is said to include MPs like Sophie Løhde, Morten Dahlin and Marie Bjerre. They argue against joining a government. They believe the Liberals will be crushed in a government with the Social Democrats, and can't stand being in a government with Mette Frederiksen after campaigning hard against her. And they see a big threat in this allowing Denmark Democrats and/or Conservatives to grow on their behalf. The second group include MPs like Søren Gade, Preben Bang Henriksen, Jan E. Jørgensen and probably Troels Lund Poulsen. They argue a responsible party should seek influence and ministerial posts, and shut the Red-Greens and potentially SPP out of influence. They also see Jakob Ellemann-Jensen gaining experience from an influential ministry as something which would boost his chances of looking like a potential PM.

Løvkvist says Ellemann is somewhere in the middle, but perhaps leaning towards the group reluctant to join a government. The agricultural and fisheries part of the party is said to support joining a government, while a slight majority of the members tend to lean towards it being too dangerous to do.

https://avisendanmark.dk/artikel/l%C3%B8vkvist-venstre-spaltet-i-to-t%C3%B8r-de-g%C3%A5-med-mette-frederiksen
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Diouf
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« Reply #208 on: November 11, 2022, 04:51:33 PM »

Mette Frederiksen continues the thematic meetings with the parties about different topics, which have been planned for the next around two weeks. So we are already looking towards what could be a record-long government formation. Parliament data shows that the longest government formation from 1953 to now was the 35 days it took after the 1975 election.

The government has announced it's preparing a simple spending bill as the official 2023 Budget. That would simply continue the current budget, so that public sector employees can be paid. This is due to it being unsure whether a government is formed, and a budget adopted before the end of the year. Instead, a new government would then make a proper budget early next year with political priorities and movement of funds.

Red-Green Alliance has said it will no-confidence all governments with the Moderates, as they consider them as blue as the official blue bloc parties. This is probably not that surprising. If the Moderates are included, the Red-Green seats aren't necessary for a majority. In the best of cases, such a government could perhaps have hoped that Red-Greens would be neutral towards it, but with the economic reforms such a government could carry out, it was likely a forlorn hope.
By already making it public, they are putting extra pressure on the SPP and the Socialdemocrat left wing in these negotiations. It could also be seen as preparing for the potential role as sharp left-wing opposition to a centrist government with blue economic reforms.

No additional parties have left the negotiations yet. It could be that some of the parties, who are not gonna be part of a majority, will use one of the themes discussed as the reason to leave. Economy and inflation will be discussed again on Tuesday, and if that's the last day on that, I guess it could make sense for a party like the Liberal Alliance and New Right to leave if they see the distance as being too big between them and the government. With the anger the Red-Greens is already showing, it should maybe not be ruled out that they leave if they think Frederiksen is already preparing to go centrist. And then she would have to call them again if the centrist project fails.

Red-Greens, SPP, DPP and Denmark Democrats have demanded that the government starts immediate negotiations about extra winter help for those hurt by rising energy and food prices. The government so far rejects this.
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Diouf
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« Reply #209 on: November 12, 2022, 08:03:03 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2022, 08:07:28 AM by Diouf »

The new parliament meets for the first time on Tuesday the 15 November. Their first task is to approve of the election and distribute the posts in the parliamentary leadership and committees. The most prestigious post is that as Speaker of parliament. The Liberals have stated that they propose Søren Gade for that post, and Mette Frederiksen has just announced that the Social Democrats is supporting him. That is only 73 seats, but I think many other parties will end up supporting him as well now. And another situation where Mette Frederiksen wants to show her willingness towards broad cooperation.
Also the Social Democrats themselves did not necessarily have a really obvious candidate for the post.

Edit: SPP already out to support him as well.
Now Moderates and New Right as well. So the majority is already certain
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Diouf
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« Reply #210 on: November 15, 2022, 09:52:36 AM »

Søren Gade was today elected temporary Speaker at the opening session of parliament. Tomorrow he will be elected Speaker and the other positions in the parliamentary leadership and committees will be elected.
Gade is backed by all parties, except Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative. The Red-Greens said they wouldn't back him due to the scandals during his time as Minister of Defence, while the Alternative said that they "wouldn't take part in a political horse trade meant to clear the way towards a centrist government without serious climate ambitions".




In other news, Liberal re-elected MP Karen Ellemann has already announced that she will leave parliament to take the job as General Secretary of the Nordic Council of Ministers from January. This means that Kim Valentin, who lost his seat in parliament and was on his way to take his seat as a MEP, will take Ellemann's seat in parliament. Therefore, Erik Poulsen will now become a MEP for some months, despite only ending up as the third substitute member for the Liberals back in 2019.
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Diouf
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« Reply #211 on: November 19, 2022, 04:46:11 AM »

This weekend, there's the Liberal party conference, which is seen as a cardinal event in the government negotiations, as there could be some indication of whether the rank-and-file Liberal members support a potential government with the Social Democrats. Lars Løkke said he thinks the main reason for the slow progress in the negotiations has been that everybody is waiting for what the Liberals will do.

Jakob Ellemann just held his conference speech. He said the Liberals now needed to stand more in its own right, and not just as a the sum of whatever could be agreed with the other Blue parties. He clearly ditches the strategy the party used in the campaign of showing a united, Blue Bloc front. He said that as long as there's such a clear red/purple majority, the Liberals has to seek the compromises and affect the development of Denmark instead of sitting in opposition with your arms folded. He says the party doesn't just have political differences with the Social Democrats, but also there's a need to rebuild trust after what happened in the recent term. Finally, he asks the Liberal members for patience, so he in the best way can explore who best to position the Liberals and ensure the biggest possible imprint in Danish politics.

In terms of parliamentary leadership, Søren Gade was elected Speaker of parliament. Leif Lahn from the Social Democrats will be 1st Deputy Speaker, Jeppe Søe from the Moderates will be 2nd Deputy Speaker, Karsten Hønge from SPP will be 3rd Deputy Speaker and Karina Adsbøl from Denmark Democrats will be 4th Deputy Speaker.
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Diouf
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« Reply #212 on: November 23, 2022, 01:51:09 PM »

Today, the number of parties participating in the government negotations was reduced. New Right, Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative are out of the negotiations. As mentioned some days ago, the Red-Green Alliance was already raising their rhetorical attacks against the Social Democrats, and seemingly realizing that they weren't gonna be in the negotiations for the long haul. Frederiksen states that the eight remaining parties are those who can see themselves in a broad government or as a part of a binding cooperation with such a government, perhaps as support party. Of the remaining parties, I would still doubt that Liberal Alliance, DPP and probably Conservatives end up as support parties for a Social Democrat-led broad government, but perhaps they can agree to some policy objectives on parts of such a government's programme. In the best case for the government, there might be a small chance that one of them could agree to vote neutrally in a potential confidence vote.

Frederiksen said that it will still take several weeks before a government is formed. The most discussed government majorities are:
- Social Democrat - Liberals - Moderates - (Social Liberals)
- Social Democrats - Moderates - SPP - Social Liberals
- Social Democrats - Liberals - SPP

The first option is the classic centrist government with the two big parties from each bloc + one or both of the centrist parties. The Social Liberals isn't on paper needed for the majority, but could be added anyway to shore up the government in terms of seats. However, for the Social Democrats it could be uneasy to form a majority with three parties who are centre-rightish on economy, and it leaves the quite mainstream, boring SPP as an option for their disssatisfied left wing.
The second option is the standard centre-left option, just with the Moderates added.
The third option is quite weird on paper as a government across the centre, but without the centrist parties. However, that is exactly the benefit of it, as the two big parties then get to keep out Løkke, whom they don't trust, and his untested parliamentary group which could crumble. Similarly, the unruly Social Liberals with their ultimate immigration demands can be kept out.


In other news, Morten Messerschmidt's parliamentary immunity has been lifted again, so his re-trial can start tomorrow. Peter Kofod, who was previously deputy leader, and therefore likely to take over temporarily if Messerschmidt is sentenced, will no longer have that role, mostly due to personal issues after a tough divorce. Instead, René Christensen will have that role. He he has been the party's fairly prominent financial spokesperson for years, but wasn't elected for parliament in the recent election.

There are already the first problems in the new Moderate group. MP Kristian Klarskov has today resigned from parliament, after Jyllands-Posten revealed that his entrepreneurial credentials were much less rosy than he had portrayed them. He hasn't earned any money for ten years, the last four years he has only owned an inactive company, and he approved an illegal financial statement of his company back in 2011 despite warnings from the accountant. He will be replaced by Mohammed Rona.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #213 on: December 03, 2022, 02:37:41 PM »

The Conservatives have left the negotiations fairly amicably, which leaves the continued inclusion of the Liberal Alliance even odder (they’re surely going to leave soon).
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Diouf
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« Reply #214 on: December 07, 2022, 12:00:27 PM »

SPP has now left the negotiations, which eliminates two of three likely majority options for a centrist government. Pia Olsen Dyhr said things has "become too blue", and that the Liberals further raised the demands for right-wing economic policies after the Conservatives left the negotiations. She also says her party is too far from the Liberals on agriculture, climate and social policies. Somehow, Liberal Alliance and DPP are still officially a part of the negotiations, but it doesn't sound like they are meeting much, if at all, with the Social Democrats.

So we are now down to the Social Democrat - Liberal - Moderate - (Social Liberal) majority option, the true centrist one. The first two parties will certainly be a part of such a new government, and then the question is whether both of the two latter are a part of the majority (probably), and whether they will join the government or just be support parties.
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Diouf
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« Reply #215 on: December 12, 2022, 12:17:32 PM »

Government negotiations are in the final stretch with the four likely majority parties, Social Democrats, Liberals, Moderates and Social Liberals carrying out intense negotiations for recent days. Liberals and Moderates have made one of the most painful concessions by both giving up the independent lawyer investigation of the mink scandal, which should consider whether or not an impeachment case could be started again Mette Frederiksen. This has predictably caused a lot of criticism from the other Blue parties, and from (so far, minor) parts of the Liberals themselves. Their willigness to go public with that concession should mean that it should be basically certain that the parties will soon present a new government agreement.
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Diouf
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« Reply #216 on: December 13, 2022, 10:57:40 AM »

The Social Liberals have now left the government negotiations. Party leader Martin Lidegaard says: "We won't be a support party for the new government, but not in opposition to it either", so that must mean voting blank in a confidence vote. The fractured Social Liberal group discussed the issue, and the decision they ended with is probably not the one Lidegaard wanted. He said: "My proposal to the group was "What do you think about this? I think the content is good on these issues, and bad on those issues". And then we had a discussion. There were of course different attitudes toward it. Pro and contra. On the basis of those discussions, I made the decision". Lidegaard says the party wanted more ambitious stuff on climate, education and children. On the question of Rwanda, Lidegaard said that an acceptable compromise has been found on that question, so that issue wasn't the one blocking things.

Lidegaard said the new government programme will be presented tomorrow, and everything points towards a majority government with the Social Democrats, Liberals, Moderates. All 4 North Atlantic seats should support it as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #217 on: December 13, 2022, 02:15:33 PM »

Mette Frederiksen has just been to tell the queen that she is ready to form a government consisting of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates. She announced that the government's programme will be presented tomorrow, and the new government presented on Thursday.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #218 on: December 15, 2022, 05:07:06 AM »

New cabinet has been announced:

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Diouf
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« Reply #219 on: December 15, 2022, 01:54:13 PM »

The government programme contains the following parts:

Immediate actions
-The government will propose a package with immediate help to citizens and companies to deal with the costs of inflation. Those elderly with lower incomes will get an check of 5.000 kr., and there will also be help to economically troubled families, those with expensive heating plus money to christmas charities
-Hospitals will get an additional 2 bln. DKK over the next two years to bring down waiting times
-A National Energy Crisis Council will be established to expedite the process towards becoming independent of firstly russian gas, and secondly fossil fuels in general.

Financial policies
- The government wants to make agreements which increases the so-called structural employment by 45.000 full-time persons in 2030.
- The government will have a 'tax increase stop' to ensure that taxes on citizens overall do not rise, so if a decision is made to raise some taxes or fees, others must always be lowered for the same amount. Tobacco duty is exempt from this
- A holiday (the Great Prayer day) will be abolished from 2024

Education
-Vocational education will receive more funds
- In higher education, one should only be able to get study grants for the education's normal study time
- Half of the master programmes will be reduced to one year instead of two
- 500-1000 new student places for educations in English
- The much debated new high school distribution programme is weakened, so parental income is no longer a factor looked at when spreading students across high schools.

Public sector
- 3 bln. kr. will be saved yearly on employment policy. Job centres will be abolished with the unemployment funds and private companies taking over several of the tasks with persons who have a high chance of getting quickly back into employment. For those with more social problems, there is a promise of a more dignified treatment, while remaining tough on fraud. The government aims to give the municipalities more control of how to do this.
- More free choice for the citizens (between public and private solutions) and localized decision-making will be introduced in the public sector. Less bureaucracy and more focus on results. The proces will start in the elderly care, but be carried out throughout the public sector.
- Wages in the public sector will be increased for certain groups. There will be 1 bl. kr. allocated from 2024, rising to 3 bln. kr. in 2030.
- A strucural commission will look at the way the health care sector is structured. This is mainly to deal with the issue of whether or not the regions should be abolished, which is one of the Moderates' central wishes
- An additional 3 bln kr. will be used over 10 years on the psychiatric sector.

Taxation/benefits
- The employment allowance is incresed
- The top tax rate is changed. Currently it's 15% on all income above 550.000 kr. a year. It will now become 7.5% from 550.000-750.000, 15% from 750.000 - 2.500.000, and 20% above 2.500.000.
-The elderly check for poor pensioners is increased by 4.700 kr a year.

Climate
- The 70% reduction target in 2030 compared to 1990 is kept. The 100% reduction target is moved forward from 2050 to 2045. The target in 2050, will be a 110% reduction.
- A co2 tax on agriculture will be introduced, but the income from this will be used on the transformation of the agricultural sector towards a low-emission sector.
- A new sea protection plan with 10 percent of the sea area strictly protected and 20 percent protected.
- 250.000 hectares of new forests are to be established
- A new flight fee of 100 kr.

Defence
- The 2% GDP target is moved forward from 2033 to 2030
- The decision to suspend senior employees in the Military Intelligence Service will be investigated by a commission

Asylum
- The aim is for Denmark and Europe to control the amount of asylum seekers coming here. More persons should be helped in areas close to those they are fleeing from, with the UN quota system becoming the main system of helping refugees to western countries
- More cooperations like the EU-Turkey deal should be encouraged
- Up to 500 UN quota refugees a year will be accepted
- The government will aim to establish a refugee processing center in a safe country which lives up to international conventions. The aim is to establish it as an EU cooperation, or bi/multilaterally with other countries. So the objective of the Rwanda plan is kept, but the chances of it being carried out is reduced further with the demand of at least one other country involved.
- Denmark will appoint an ambassador to deal with moving the international conventions in a more sensible direction

Immigration/integration
- Immigrants needs to contribute to society 37 hours a week to get their benefits
- Allow more refugees to stay in Denmark if they are working or taking an education within a field where Denmark needs labour.
- Lessen the financial costs of getting family reunification

Coherence
- New state jobs should mostly be placed outside the big cities
- Bus routes in rural areas should be improved
- It should be easier to get a loan to purchase a house in rural areas

Justice
- Increase sentences for violent crime
- Reduce court waiting times
- Maintain deal with renting prison places in Kosovo

Democracy
- Improve the right of access so the public (mainly journalists) can get easier access to documents
- Look at whether the Ministry of Justice should be split up, with a new Ministry of National Security being formed, where the police, the police intelligence agency etc. are handled.

Culture
- A reform of museums to ensure a more fair distribution of state funds
- Introduce a "culture grant" for those 45.000 youths who aren't in work or education
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Diouf
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« Reply #220 on: December 15, 2022, 03:44:49 PM »



A new government has been formed with 23 ministers. The Social Democrats have 11, Liberals have 7 and the Moderates 5. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen did not become Minister of Finance, instead he will be Minister of Defence, and in charge of rolling out all the new spending. The Social Democrat Nicolai Wammen stays as Minister of Finance. Moderate leader Lars Løkke chose to become Minister of Foreign Affairs. It seems a bit risky for the leader of a new party to take the job with so much travelling and time away from Denmark. And perhaps a sign that he is on the look out for an international job. Løkke pulled in two ministers, who were not part of his parliamentary group. The former Liberal Alliance MP Christina Egelund will be Minister of Education and Science, while former CEO of Green Power Denmark Lars Aagard is the new Minister of Climate and Energy.

For the Liberals, the expected names were all included, Troels Lund Poulsen, Sophie Løhde and Marie Bjerre. Frederiksen mostly ditched the scandalized and unpopular ministers. Most of those who stayed in government got a new job. The popular Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke will now become Minister of Environment. Minister of Employment Peter Hummelgaard will now become Minister of Justice, where he replaces Mattias Tesfaye who will become Minister for Children and Education. Former Minister of Climate Dan Jørgensen becomes "CNN-Minister", i.e. Minister of International Development and Global Climate policies.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #221 on: December 20, 2022, 07:47:51 AM »

We shall have four Danish liberal parties in Renew Europe after next elections?
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