India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

2022 India assembly elections

Feb/March:  UP Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur and Goa
Nov/Dec: Gujarat HP and most likely J&K

UP: BJP won a massive landslide in 2017 and looks like has a real shot at a ruling party winning re-election in UP for the first time since 1985. 
Punjab: INC won a landslide victory in 2017 as the anti-INC vote was split between AAP and SAD-BJP.  This time around AAP looks over strong and is likely to defeat INC
Uttarakhand: BJP won in a landslide in 2017 on Modi wave plus INC divisions.  BJP on its 3rd CM since 2017 is not a good look and INC has a good shot at winning
Manipur: INC just narrowly missed winning re-election and the BJP was able to build a post-election government by roping in small parties and getting a bunch of  INC defectors.  Given how much this state needs federal subsidies the BJP has a good shot at winning re-election even as the anti-incumbency energy will be on the side of INC.
Goa: INC just narrowly missed unseating BJP mostly due to AAP underperformance in 2017 and the BJP was able to build a post-election government by roping in small parties and a bunch of INC defectors.  INC with its alliance with GFP should have a good shot of winning but AAP seems even stronger this time.  Also, the AITC-MAG alliance will be a significant factor and could split off anti-BJP votes.

Gujarat: Modi's home state and BJP have won here every election since 1995.  The problem for BJP is Modi is not on the ballot and its old Patel vote is drifting away.  The BJP just installed a new Patel CM but that could drive away other OBC and Dalit voters that have drifted toward BJP recently.  Either way, BJP is likely to win but the INC might keep it very close.
HP: BJP won in 2017 but since 1985 no government has won re-election.  Going by the results of recent by-elections it seems the pattern will repeat itself and the BJP will be defeated.

J&K: Assuming seat delamination is done in time J&D will have its first vote since 2014.  J&K was a special state and historically has had elections every 6 years versus 5.   But its special status was taken away in 2019 and since then the state has been in limbo.  Old rival JKN and PDP will join forces to sweep Muslim Kashmir while INC will take on BJP on mixed but Hindu majority Jammu with JKN and PDP doing well in some Muslim pockets of Jammu.  BJP would like to win a majority on its own but that seems mathamatically very difficult.

[jaichind]

The UP election will easily be the most critical of the 2022 assembly elections.  A solid BJP victory will mean Modi is likely to win re-election in 2024 AND UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath can then make a play to take overtake Amit Shah as the #2 in BJP and Modi successor.  A narrow BJP victory still bodes well for Modi in 2024 but will cut Yogi Adityanath down to size and Amit Shah's role as Modi's successor will stay intact.  A BJP defeat would cast  Yogi Adityanath back down to earth and would put questions marks on if BJP/Modi can win in 2024.

2019 was a massive pro-incumbent landslide and had parallels with pro-incumbent INC landslides in 1971 and 1984.  But note that INC lost the next election outright in 1977 and 1989.  In both cases, INC did seem unbeatable until a couple of years before the next elections (1975 and 1987 respectively). So if there are going to be chinks in BJP's armor it will be to show up in 2022 and it will have to be in UP.

Rahul Gandhi's goal will be for INC to get a respectable performance in UP (greater than 20 seats and greater than 8% vote share) but INC will be more focused on winning Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur Goa and HP as well as keeping it close in Gujarat.  If the Priyanka Gandhi-led INC can get a respectable performance in UP and INC win places like Uttarakhand Goa HP and Punjab then Rahul Gandhi is back in the game for 2024.

Priyanka Gandhi is smart to attach herself to the brand of women empowerment by having 35% of INC candidates be women.  INC will not win many seats but Priyanka Gandhi might have established a brand that might pay off for her and INC a couple of election cycles from now.

[jaichind]

The various assembly elections will also have bearing on the situation in the RS.  The NDA has been trying to win a majority in RS through hook or crook and has mostly failed.  The NDA does have a majority once you factor in pro-NDA parties.  As long as the BJP does not win a landslide victory in UP it is likely they will move further and further away from a majority for NDA.

Current RS

NDA          119
   BJP           98
   AIADMK      5
   JD(U)         4
   RPI(A)        1
   AGP            1
   PMK            1
   TMC            1
   NPF             1
   NPP             1
   MNF            1
   SAD(S)        1
   NDA-IND     1
   NDA-NOM    3

Pro-NDA     16
   BJD            9
   YSRCP        6
    SDF           1

UPA           54
   INC           33
   DMK          10
   NCP            4
   SHS            3
   IUML           1
   MDMK         1
   JMM            1
   AGM            1

Anti-NDA    48
   AITC           13
   SP                5
   TRS              6
   RJD              5
   AAP              3
   BSP              3
   SAD              2
   TDP               1
   JD(S)            1
   CPM              6
   CPI               1
   LJD               1
   KEC(M)          1

Vacant              8 (4 in J&K)

If the various assembly elections over the next couple of years go the way I think the evolution of RS over the next few years can be projected by

                        NDA           pro-NDA           UPA              anti-NDA            Vacant
End of 2021       119               16                 54                    48                     8
End of 2022       111               19                 60                    53                     2
End of 2023       110               19                 61                    53                     2
End of 2024       101               22                 67                    55
End of 2025        99                22                 69                    55

The trend is clearly moving away from a NDA majority in the RS.  Although even if an anti-NDA government is elected in 2024 the NDA plus pro-NDA parties will still be strong enough to block such a government's agenda in the RS.

[jaichind]

The BJP is going to win. That's all one needs to know.

No so sure about that.  BJP is very strong at the national level due to Modi but the state-level assembly BJP always underperforms Modi.

[jaichind]

My prediction of significant Indian assembly elections from Aug 2020

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=353070.msg7528770#msg7528770

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC.
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC.
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.  
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote

2020 Bihar -  Correct - and I got the dynamics and margins right
2021 WB - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 TN - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 Assam - Correct - and I got the dynamics correct
2021 Kerala - Wrong - LDF defeated UDF
2022 Punjab - Already wrong - SAD BJP alliance broke up over Farm protests and AAP is much more likely to defeat INC with SAD in a weak third place
2022 Uttarakhand - I think I will be right
2022 UP - I think I will be right
2022 HP - I think I will be right
2022 Gujarat - I suspect BJP will narrowly win then INC narrow win

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/punjab-assembly-polls-2022/story/bhagwant-mann-aap-cm-candidate-punjab-elections-navjot-sidhu-charanjit-channi-congress-bjp-1895853-2022-01-04

"Bhagwant Mann likely to be AAP's CM candidate for Punjab elections"

Not a surprise.  AAP's Punjab head Bhagwant Mann to be AAP's CM face in upcoming elections.  Bhagwant Mann was and is still a comedian that joined SAD splinter PPP back in 2011 before joining AAP in 2014 becoming a MP.  Bhagwant Mann was the only AAP survivor of the 2019 LS Punjab wave.  PPP has since merged into INC in 2016.   Going by most polls Bhagwant Mann is now the most likely to be the next CM of Punjab after the assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/ludhiana/pms-punjab-rally-despite-covid-curbs-7705401/

"PM Modi’s Punjab rally to go ahead despite Covid-19 curbs"

This sounds a lot like early 2021 during the WB election where there were a bunch of rallies that seems to have added to the COVID-19 surge later that summer.

[jaichind]

https://www.thequint.com/uttar-pradesh-elections/congress-postpones-major-rallies-in-election-bound-states-amid-omicron-scare

"Congress 'Postpones' Major Rallies in Election-Bound States Amid Omicron Scare"

[jaichind]

Percentage of women saying it's okay for the husband to beat her if she goes out of the house without telling him.  Note this is from 2005-2006.


 
The result is surprising.  The smaller % is in the Hindi North but fairly high in the Dravidian South.

Historically the level of female economic independence is higher in the rice-growing South where women can effectively participate in agriculture than in the wheat-growing North where women cannot effectively participate in the agriculture economy and is a lot more dependent economically on her husband.  As a result, I would have expected the reverse of these numbers by region.

[jaichind]

Caste voting is critical in UP.  The best way to break up UP caste demographics are

Upper Caste: 20% - Used to vote for INC but since 1989 has shifted to BJP.  Brahmins in the late 1990s have shown signs of resenting BJP's outreach to OBCs and Dalits and going back to INC if INC can rope in the Muslim vote and become viable. 

Yadav: 10% - Core of SP.  Yadav's are the most advanced of OBC and have historically positioned themselves of leading the OBC against the old INC Upper Caste-Muslim-Dalit coalition. 

non-Yadav OBC: 30% - Very diverse group and since the fall of the pre-1989 INC Upper Caste-Muslim-Dalit coalition the critical swing bloc.  Fortunes of BJP and SP tend to rise and fall with who does better with this group.  In the 1980s Yadav based proto-SP was with JD and rose to power based this group led JD eventually beating INC.  In the 1990s the BJP was stronger than SP due to BJP's growth with this bloc.  In the 2000s and early 2010s, the SP had the edge with this group leading to the SP being the strongest UP party in that era.  The Modi wave of 2014 shifted this group right back to BJP.

Jatav: 10% - Core of BSP.  Jatav is the more advanced subgroup of Dalits.  BSP's Mayawati is a Jatav and so is the core BSP leadership.  Jatav sees itself as leading the rest of the Dalit for their due political and economic power.  Dalits used to be with INC before 1989 but the rise of BSP in the mid-1980s changed all that by the early 1990s.

Non-Jatav Dalit: 10% - Was with BSP but since the Modi wave of 2014.  BJP has been able to exploit resentment of Non-Jatav Dalits against Jatav arrogance to get them to shift over to BJP.

Muslims: 20% - Was with INC before 1989 with the rise of BJP and breakup of the old INC Upper Caste-Muslim-Dalit coalition Muslims have begun to split their vote between INC and SP.  During the 1999-2009 period INC was slowing regaining this bloc from SP but that reversed itself in the 2010s
 In this election most likely Muslims will continue to shift toward SP.

Historically BJP was viewed as an Upper Caste party.  The power of Modi is that he is from the OBC but pushes Hindu nationalism which is supported by the Upper Caste.  So the BJP is able to fuse the Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC blocs and get enough non-Jatav Dalits to win over and over again.  The key to UP is non-Yadav OBC.  For SP to have a chance this time they have to win back this bloc from BJP.

My 2017 back-of-the-envelope "exit poll guess" on how the different bloc voted (between BJP+, SP-INC, and BSP)

A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%

BJP+ held on to the Upper Caste vote and won the battle of non-Yadav OBC while gaining a good part of the Dalit vote even though there were signs that the Dalit vote was coming home to BSP.  SP-INC has been reduced to the Yadav-Muslim bloc (almost 20% of the 28% vote share came from Yadav-Muslims) while BSP failed to gain ground in Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Muslim votes despite running large number of candidates in  communities.  BSP hopes of sweeping BJP in Non-Jatav Dailt also failed.

What was decisive was the non-Yadav OBC vote went very strongly for BJP.  SP was formed in 1992 as THE OBC party but has lost the narrative this election leading to a collapse of its old OBC base outside of Yadavs.

[jaichind]

ECI came out with the election schedule

UP will be in 7 phases
Manipur will be in 2 phases (must be because of concerns of insurgents)
Punjab Goa Uttarakhand all 1 phase

Voting will go from 2/7 to 3/10

[jaichind]

Counting will be on March 10th

[jaichind]

UP phases will go from West to East

[jaichind]

ECI bans all rallies until Jan 15th in an attempt to slow down the current COVID-19 surge.  I suspect a lot of rallies might be done virtually.

[jaichind]

Now that election is called the battle for alliances heats up in Goa.

Right now it is

BJP  vs   INC-GFP-NCP vs MGP-AITC vs AAP

But it seems both AITC and AAP are looking to do deals with INC.  SHS also wants to be part of the INC-led alliance.  I guess AITC and AAP are waking up to the fact that the battle will be mostly BJP vs INC and for them to have a chance at any bloc of seats they have to work something out with INC.

[jaichind]

Minor pollster Inside Election polls on assembly election

Punjab: INC small edge over AAP with a hung assembly



Goa: BJP near majority with anti-BJP vote split between INC-GFP-NCP, MGP-AITC, and AAP



UP: Reduced BJP majority beating back SP.  BJP keeps its 2017 vote share and the anti-BJP vote consolidates around SP-RLD but not by enough numbers.



All three polls are plausible but I think all three overestimates the incumbent party too much.

[jaichind]

In UP it seems the BJP will deny tickets to 75-80 MLAs. If so expect a bunch of them to jump to other parties or run as independents.  Such a move seems consistent with Amit Shah's style of countering anti-incumbency by not renominating sitting BJP MLAs hoping to push the anti-incumbency onto the MLA and count on the BJP brand to keep the BJP core vote on the BJP candidate regardless of the personal vote of the sitting BJP MLA. 

One thing is for sure.  Amit Shah and the BJP for sure thinks there is anti-incumbency sentiment on the ground in UP

[jaichind]

Latest ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll for UP has BJP gaining ground on SP





By region





This is a bit of a surprise. It seems SP is making gains in  Purvanchal just as much as Western UP.  The SP-RLD alliance should shift a bunch of Jat voters in Western UP and produce some SP gains which this poll does show.  But in  Purvanchal the BJP roped in NISHAD and JD(U) in addition to AD(S) where they should consolidate Kurmi and Nishad vote and produce a greater BJP relative lead over SP.

The NISHAD party is quite funny.  Indian election law says a party cannot make communal and caste-based appeals.  In reality, this is ignored by all parties.  NISHAD works around this by naming their party Nirbal Indian Shosh**t Hamara Aam Dal or NISHAD which spells out to be the name of the Nishad caste which the party is really based on.

[jaichind]

Other ABP-CVoter Opinion Polls

Uttarakhand - INC gains ground and now virtual tie with BJP
            Seat       Vote share
BJP        34              38.6%
INC        33              37.2%
AAP          3              12.6%


Punjab - both INC and AAP gains ground on SAD with a small increase in the AAP edge



Manipur - NPF and Other gains from both BJP and INC leading to virtual tie between BJP and INC




Goa - BJP makes gains against AAP leading to tiny BJP majority

[jaichind]

Again, taking into account the fact that pre-election polls tend to overestimate the incumbent I can see how in all 5 states the incumbent party loses.  Punjab is the most likely to flip and UP is the least likely to flip.  In UP despite anti-incumbency BJP CM Yogi Adityanath has his own independent appeal, especially in Eastern UP and the BJP can count on anti-Muslim anti-Yadav voting to keep the SP vote share down and allow it to slip through.

[jaichind]

LOK poll for UP has it at

BJP+     207
SP+      162
INC        14
BSP        13
OTH         7

Very narrow BJP majority

[jaichind]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/uttar-pradesh-minister-swami-prasad-maurya-quits-bjp-joins-sp-ahead-of-assembly-elections-7923651.html

"UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya defects to SP ahead of polls"

This is quite significant.  Swami Prasad Maurya as the OBC face for BSP for years.  When he defected from BSP to BJP in 2016 it was symbolic of the realignment of the non-Yadav OBC toward the BJP in 2014-2017.  Now he has shifted to SP shows that SP can be competitive with non-Yadav OBC.  If so that is very bad news for BJP.  BJP's route to victory is to win Upper Caste, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBC and even if the Muslim and Yadav vote consolidate around SP the BJP will still win.  Any swing of non-Yadav OBC to SP could be deadly for BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/uttar-pradesh-minister-swami-prasad-maurya-quits-bjp-joins-sp-ahead-of-assembly-elections-7923651.html

"UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya defects to SP ahead of polls"

This is quite significant.  Swami Prasad Maurya as the OBC face for BSP for years.  When he defected from BSP to BJP in 2016 it was symbolic of the realignment of the non-Yadav OBC toward the BJP in 2014-2017.  Now he has shifted to SP shows that SP can be competitive with non-Yadav OBC.  If so that is very bad news for BJP.  BJP's route to victory is to win Upper Caste, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBC and even if the Muslim and Yadav vote consolidate around SP the BJP will still win.  Any swing of non-Yadav OBC to SP could be deadly for BJP.

Right after BJP MLA Swami Prasad Maurya quit BJP to join SP this news came out

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/arrest-warrant-issued-against-ex-up-minister-swami-prasad-maurya-1070537.html

"Arrest warrant issued against ex-UP Minister Swami Prasad Maurya"

It is not clear which is the chicken and which is the egg.  It is possible that Swami Prasad Maurya quit BJP to join SP as soon as he realized the courts were going to arrest him for a case from 7 years ago (when he was with BSP) and then quit or it is the other way around.

One thing I know is being arrested will not at all affect his ability to be re-elected on the SP ticket.  If anything it will enhance his chances.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/up-election-up-polls-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-names-mother-of-2017-unnao-rape-victim-as-congress-candidate-2705478

"Congress Names 2017 UP Rape Victim's Mother As Poll Candidate"

One of INC's UP candidates is the mother of the 2017 Unnao rape victim.  Back in 2017, the BJP MLA was accused of raping a then 17-year-old girl.  Afterward, it was clear that the local police were trying to not follow up on the case.  Only media and opposition party pressure get the legal system into action when the victim attempted to immolate herself at the residence of BJP CM Yogi Adityanath.  Then in 2019 while the case was being tried the alleged victim was killed in a car accident which many consider suspicious.  All this national attention did lead to the BJP MLA being convicted and expelled from the BJP in late 2019.  This case is still being appealed and it will not surprise me if the ex-BJP MLA will try to run for re-election.  It also seems that the BJP might run the wife of this ex-BJP MLA although I am pretty sure the negative PR associated with this will stop them from doing so.  Anyway, the INC will run the mother of the victim as their candidate.  She will not win but the INC will get some PR points out of this.

[jaichind]

Election analyst chart of 2017 vote by community

Too bad there is no breakout of the Dalit vote of Jatav and non-Jatav Dalit.  The chart shows the critical nature of the non-Yadav OBC to the BJP landslide.  SP was reduced to its Muslim-Yadav core while BSP was reduced to its Dalit core.



This time around there will be a Yadav Muslim consolidation behind SP.  BJP has to convince the non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit to counter-consolidate around BJP.  SP has to break up this BJP plan by a caste by caste appeal to non-Yadav OBC and hope that INC can pick up some marginal Dalit voters that might overwise go to BJP.