India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Final ABP CVoter Goa poll

BJP's vote share falling while INC's vote share rising to lead to a totally fractured mandate.  The post-election battles and horse-trading will become the real election.

I refuse to believe AAP can win 24% of the vote. And if you accept that then this poll is very negative for BJP as this overestimation of AAP most likely means INC is underestimated.

[jaichind]

Final ABP CVoter Punjab poll

INC's vote share crashes to a disastrous 30% and the anti-INC vote mostly consolidated around AAP giving the AAP a small majority.

Vote share by region


Seat projection

[jaichind]

Final ABP CVoter Uttarakhand poll

Tiny BJP edge as both BJP and INC are consolidating their vote.   AAP at 13% is a very bad sign for BJP as on election a good chunk of them will tactically vote INC  This poll is not good news for BJP.  I am skeptical about AAP winning more than 1 seat and more likely than not will get zero seats.

[jaichind]

Final LokPoll polls

Uttarakhand
INC        36
BJP        30
Others     4

Same as their previous polls.  Everyone seems to agree that Uttarakhand will be close which should be bad news for BJP


Punjab
INC         59
SAD+      27
AAP         24
BJP+         2
Others       5 (Other than the 2 LIP winners I am not sure there are 3 viable rebels in the running)

In 2017 AAP totally underperformed pre-election polls.   This poll seems to believe the same thing will take place and that anti-incumbency will be dissipated by Dalit consolidation behind INC and the anti-INC vote evenly split between SAD-BSP and AAP.


Manipur
BJP        25
INC        22
NPP         5
NPF         4
Others     4

I suspect BJP will do better than this given how much of the INC talent has gone elsewhere (BJP and JD(U) and NPP)


Goa
INC-GFP      18
BJP             14
MGP-AITC     3
AAP              1
Others          4

This feels about right and matches my view that AAP will completely underperform what many polls claim.


UP
BJP+          191
SP+           178
BSP             14
INC             13
Others           7

This poll seems to have BSP and INC, especially INC, retaining some of their votes and helping to keep BJP below majority.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/feb/06/sukhjinder-raj-singh-vs-jagwinderpal-singh-siblings-pitted-against-each-other-in-punjabs-majitha-s-2416050.html

"Sukhjinder Raj Singh vs Jagwinderpal Singh: Siblings pitted against each other in Punjab's Majitha seat"

Brother vs Brother in Punjab's Majitha.  INC ran Sukhjinder Raj Singh here in 2017 who lost to a key SAD leader Bikram Singh Majithia.   Sukhjinder Raj Singh then defected to AAP to run in 2022.     Bikram Singh Majithia decided to run against INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu in Amritsar East leaving his wife to run here.  INC nominated Jagwinder Pal Singh who is Sukhjinder Raj Singh's brother.  So the battle will be brother vs brother vs the wife of the 2017 winner.

[jaichind]

A look at the Punjab candidate list shows some churn mostly in favor of INC but that is expected as the INC is the ruling party

Out of 2017 77 INC winners
64 win run again for INC
2 will run for BJP
2 were not nominated and will run as a rebel
1 was not nominated and his wife will run as a rebel
1 retired and his son will run for INC
1 will run as PLC (former INC CM Amarinder Singh)

Out of 2017 20 AAP winners
10 will run again for AAP
4 joined INC but was not nominated
3 joined INC and will run for INC
2 was not nominated and rebelled but will not run

Out of the 2017 15 SAD winner
12 will run again for SAD
2 will have relatives run for SAD
1 will run for SAD(S)

Out of the 2017 3 BJP winners
2 will run again for BJP
1 became an MP in 2019


Out of the 2017 29 INC second place finishers
12 will run again for INC
3 will run for AAP
2 were not nominated and will run as independents
1 will have son run for INC
1 will run for PLC
1 joined AAP but was not nominated
1 retired but entire family went over to back SAD

Out of the 2017 26 AAP second place finishers
12 will run again for AAP
1 joined SAD but was not nominated
2 were not nominated and rebelled but will not run

Out of the 2017 44 SAD second place finishers
26 will run for SAD
3 will run for BJP
1 joined INC but was not nominated
1 will run for SAD(M)

Out of the 2017 18 BJP second place finishers
10 will run for BJP
1 will not run but nephew will run for BJP
1 will run for SAD
1 joined SAD but was not nominated
1 was not nominated and rebelled but will not run


Main takeaways
a) INC mainly targeted AAP winners to recruit from but only nominated some of them.  INC was not interested in recruiting 2017 second place AAP finishers
b) BJP SAD(S) and PLC did recruit a few quality candidates from other parties and could outperform but they are just too weak in most seats
c) SAD seems to be re-nominating most of its 2017 candidates. SAD seems to believe that it lost in 2017 due to double incumbency and the BJP brand dragging them down.  They have neither this time around and they feel that in 2017 they had a good set of quality candidates they want to run again
d) INC clearly ahead of AAP in the defection game which is expected given the fact that INC is the ruling party.  If INC was behind in the defection game as the ruling party that would point to a landslide defeat for INC.  Based on candidate quality analysis it is not clear INC will win but most likely INC will not be defeated in a landslide.
e) As the main opposition party the AAP candidate quality is pretty poor.   If AAP is to win it will have to be based on its CM face Bhagwant Mann and/or AAP brand
f) As the second opposition party the SAD candidate quality is very strong.  If AAP does underperform I can see SAD doing very well based on its strong candidate quality.

[jaichind]

In the wife vs wife BJP primary for the Amethi, the winner is the husband.  BJP decides to go with Sanjay Singh as the BJP candidate over both his wives as a way to break the deadlock.  Reasonable compromise.

Another fun fact about the Amethi seat, in 2017 the SP ran 2012 SP winner Gaytri Prasad even though by the 2017 election he was accused of rape and was fugitive from the law on charges of rape.  In the end wife #1, Garima Singh of the BJP won.  Afterward, Gaytri Prasad was arrested and convicted of rape and is now serving a life impediment term.  But SP seems to want to double down on Gaytri Prasad by nominating Gaytri Prasad's wife as the SP candidate.  The SP must see something special in Gaytri Prasad's ability to get votes.  They are sticking with him even after he is convinced and sentenced to life for rape. So both BJP and SP put the spouse of their 2017 candidates to run this time in this seat.

[jaichind]

UP phase 1 voting tomorrow for 58 Seats

Results of the last 4 elections (for LS election it is assembly segment results) in these 58 seats

2019 BJP 46 SP 1 BSP 7 RLD 4
2017 BJP 53 SP 2 BSP 2 RLD 1
2014 BJP 57 SP 1
2012 BJP 10 SP 14 BSP 20 RLD 9 INC 5

2012 results show that this phase has RLD (this phase is Jat heavy) and BSP relatively strong (BSP leader Mayawati is from this part of UP.)  If RLD and/or BSP underperform her it will be downhill for SP and BSP respectively.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/jan/12/uttar-pradesh-bjp-mla-vinay-shakyas-daughter-says-dad-missing-cop-says-lawmaker-safe-at-home-2405694.html

"Uttar Pradesh BJP MLA Vinay Shakya's daughter says dad missing; cop says lawmaker safe at home"

Another fun family feud election in UP.  In the Bidhuna seat, the 2017 BJP winner Vinay Shakya defected to the SP.  This seems to be influenced by his brother Rekha Shakya but opposed by his daughter Riya Shakya.  Riya Shakya then claimed that Rekha Shakya and SP kidnapped her father and forced him to defect to the SP but when the police looked into the case it appears  Vinay Shakya was at home the entire time and there was no kidnapping.  In the end, his daughter Riya Shakya will run for BJP in this seat while his brother  Rekha Shakya will run for SP with Vinay Shakya's support.

[jaichind]

To get a sense of how the defection game is going in UP I looked at the 311 out 403 seats that candidate list are lockdown down.

I broke the parties into blocs
BJP+   (BJP AD(S) NISHAD)
SP+    (SP RLD SBSP)
BSP
INC

And then look at the 2017 candidates by parties that got a good amount of vote share (>20%) to see the number of defections from one bloc to another.  I count a defection as a defection even if the defector does not run and in some cases, a relative of the defector is running anyway.

                                                    Defect to
                                       BJP+       SP+         BSP        INC
                    BJP+            XXX         15            1            1
                    SP+              12          XXX          8            5
Defect from   BSP               13          24           XXX         3
                    INC                 3          11            2          XXX

It is clear that SP+ is winning the defection game with more BJP+ defections to SP+ than the other way around.  Also, the BSP and INC defectors are by large margins joining SP+.

For the ruling bloc to be behind in the defection game is ominous for the BJP.  And this does not even include Eastern UP where we know a bunch of non-Yadav OBC BJP MLAs has joined SP which are not part of the 311 seats where the candidate list is locked down.  Back in 2017 even though the BJP and SP-INC were neck-to-neck in pre-election polls the BJP was a good deal ahead of the SP-INC in the defection game, especially with respect to defections from BSP.  The result was a massive BJP landslide.  This time around the SP+ lead over BJP+ in the defection game is not as large but is very relevant and indicates that the on-the-ground candidates do not view BJP chances as great as the pre-election polls indicate.

A defection game-based analysis indicates that BJP can at best win a narrow victory and that a BJP landslide can be ruled out with a reasonable chance of SP+ pulling off an upset win.

[jaichind]

Manipur: ECI revises election dates in Manipur.

Assembly elections are to be held on February 28th and March 5th instead of the earlier schedule of February 27th and March 3rd. 

There must be security concerns of insurgent activities or just organizational issues.  Manipur insurgents have been inactive for almost a decade so more likely this is just organizational problems in running the vote.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/high-schools-colleges-shut-for-3-days-as-hijab-row-turns-violent/articleshow/89439964.cms

"Karnataka: Schools & colleges shut for 3 days as hijab row turns violent"

The Karnataka school hijab ban crisis continues to brew with growing protests and counter-protests.  Schools and colleges have been shut down for 3 days to try to cool things down.

[jaichind]

The first phase of UP voting is over. Turnout is at least 60% and most likely ends up being the same as the 2017 and 2019 levels.  This bloc of seats are very Jat heavy which is expected to swing from BJP to SP-RLD over the farm reform issue.

On the day before the voting Modi remind UP voters that he repealled the far law for the national interests and that he is on the side of farmers.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-farm-laws-repealed-in-national-interest-101644418126058.html

"PM Modi: Farm laws repealed in national interest"

[jaichind]

Thought I also make a defection matrix for Goa

I defections for 2017 candidates that does not run still counts as in many cases relatives of said candidates often run for the new party

The parties are
BJP
INC+ (INC GFP)
AAP
MGP+ (MGP AITC)

                                                     Defect to
                                    BJP         INC+       AAP          MGP+
                      BJP         XXX          2            6                2
                      INC+       12           XXX         0                3
Defect from     AAP           0            2          XXX              0
                      MGP+        2            1            1                0

As already known BJP got a large number of defectors from INC and clearly won the defector battle.  What this chart also shows is that AAP is getting quite a few defectors from AAP.  This seems to imply a possible AAP outperformance.  I still think this is unlikely but the data is the data and I might have to get ready for a possible AAP outperformance vote counting day.

[jaichind]

Similar defection  matrix for Uttarakhand with

BJP
INC
BSP
AAP

                                                Defect to
                                BJP       INC        BSP        AAP
                     BJP      XXX        4           1            0
Defect from    INC       3        XXX          0            1         
                     BSP       0           1          XXX         5
                   
AAP did not run in 2017 so there is no defect from for AAP.  With 90 seats the level of defections is fairly low but INC and BJP are running even in terms of defections which shows that INC as an opposition party is poised to do well.  AAP gaining some defections from BSP indicates that AAP is poised to overtake BSP as the third party.  All things equal with such low churn one cannot extrapolate too much but there are no large-scale INC defections to BJP like in 2017 shows this race will be close and likely to give an INC victory.

[jaichind]

Defection matrix for Punjab

Parties/blocs are

INC
AAP
SAD+ (SAD BSP)
BJP+ (BJP PLC SAD(S))

                                                     Defect to
                                          INC       AAP        SAD+      BJP+
                            INC         XXX        0            1            4
                            AAP           8        XXX          4            1       
Defection from       SAD+        2           1          XXX         8
                            BJP+          0          0            2         XXX

As the ruling INC got a bunch of defections from AAP and clearly won the defection again from AAP.  This does not necessarily mean that INC will outperform as the ruling party is expected to win the defection game.  What is a surprise is that SAD is not losing that many defections to INC but to the BJP+ bloc.  This sort of implies possible outperformance by SAD and BJP or even both.  This chart implies the party that is the most likely to underperform is AAP although it is really a function of the level of anti-incumbency against the INC.

[jaichind]

The night before the first phase of the UP elections Modi gave a nationally televised interview.  During the interview, he attacked family-run castists parties.  Given Western UP was going to vote the next day it was clear he was targeting the SP(Yadavs)-RLD(Jat) alliance.  The BJP has its own family-run castists allies AD(S) (Kurmi) and NISHAD (Nishad) in UP but they are concentrated in Eastern UP where voting will take place a month later.  When voting is about to take place there Modi's message will clearly pivot away from attacks on family-run castists parties. 

This move does show the cleverness of Modi but also shows he is worried about the situation in UP, especially Western UP.

[jaichind]

In Manipur, the UPA seat share distribution seems to be

INC    54
CPI      2
CPM     1
AIFB    1
RSP     1
JD(S)   1

I am pretty sure the seats the INC allies got are all non-win seats.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/a-contest-to-watch-out-for-couple-in-race-for-bjp-ticket-from-same-seat-7730695/

"A contest to watch out for: Couple in race for BJP ticket from same seat"

For the 2017 assembly a BJP leader, Dayashankar Singh, was going to contest Sarojini Nagar in Lucknow district.  But in 2016 he made derogatory remarks against BSP leader Mayawati and was expelled from the BJP.  Dayashankar Singh maneuvered to get his wife Swati Singh to be the BJP candidate and she won as part of the 2017 BJP landslide.  Soon afterward Dayashankar Singh was let back into the BJP.  This time around Dayashankar Singh wants this seat back and his wife insists on running for re-election.  I suspect this is a maneuver by this couple to put the attention on them and push out any other BJP aspirant for the seat.

In this husband vs wife battle in the BJP "primary", BJP in the end went with the husband former MLA Dayashankar Singh over sitting MLA Swati Singh.  There are rumors that the wife Swati Singh might switch over to SP in anger but she has denied such rumors.

[omar04]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/uttar-pradesh-assembly-polls-2022/story/voter-turnout-first-phase-3-percent-lower-2017-1911627-2022-02-11

"Voter turnout in first phase of UP polls 3% lower than in 2017 election

"The first phase of polling in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election was conducted on Thursday. According to the Election Commission, the voter turnout in the 58 constituencies that went to the polls in the first phase was 60.17 per cent. In the 2017 Assembly election, these same seats had registered a 64.56 per cent voter turnout.

This means that western Uttar Pradesh has registered a drop of three per cent in voter turnout in this Assembly election as compared to the previous one in 2017. In the 2012 Assembly election, won by the Samajwadi Party, 61.03 per cent voter turnout was recorded in the same 58 constituencies. In 2007, when BSP won, the voter turnout in these seats was only 48.26 per cent.
VOTING HIGHER IN 7 DISTRICTS

Out of the eleven districts that went to the polls in the first phase on Thursday, the voter turnout increased in seven districts and decreased in four in the 2022 Assembly election

The voter turnout increased in Baghpat, Bulandshahr, Hapur, Mathura, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar and Shamli but fell in Noida, Ghaziabad, Agra and Aligarh.
WHO WON THESE SEATS IN 2017?

In 2017, BJP won 53 of the 58 seats that went to the polls in the first phase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party won two, the BSP bagged another two and Rashtriya Lok Dal won one.

In the 2012 election, BJP had won only ten of the 58 seats while the SP got 14 and BSP won 20. The Congress had won four and RLD eight.

The BJP improved its tally in western UP by 43 seats between 2012 and 2017. On the other hand, the BSP lost 18 seats, the SP lost 12 and RLD lost seven.
DISTRICT-WISE SEAT DISTRIBUTION

At present, the BJP holds two out of the three seats in Shamli district that went to the polls in the first phase. The other seat is held by the SP.

Out of seven seats in Meerut, six are with the BJP and one with Samajwadi Party. In Baghpat district, the BJP won two seats while the RLD won one in 2017.

All seven seats in Bulandshahr, three in Noida, five in Ghaziabad, six in Muzaffarnagar, nine in Agra and seven in Aligarh are occupied by the BJP.

In Hapur, two seats were won by BJP and one by BSP in 2017. In Mathura, four out of five seats are with BJP and one with BSP."

[jaichind]

ADR report indicates that in Punjab 68% of SAD and 50% of AAP candidates have criminal records.

[jaichind]

Modi approval rate by Morning Consulting is still by far the best of all the leaders in the world they are polling.

[jaichind]

India underground betting Satta Bazaar odds

Punjab
AAP     58
INC     34

UP
BJP    234
SP     126
BSP     11

To be fair usually, these betting odds mimic mainstream polls.  In 2021 WB assembly the underground betting odds had BJP with a narrow win in WB when it ended up being a AITC landslide.

[jaichind]

UP phase 1 turnout up/down relative to 2017 by district type.  Muslim heavy and RLD (which are Jat heavy) seats seem to have a higher relative turnout.   One way of reading is that Muslim and Jat turnout is up which should be bad news for BJP.  It could also be read as higher religious polarization which should be good news for BJP.

[jaichind]

A day before the election BJP sources are showing "evidence" that MGP-AITC has the goal of cutting into the Hindu vote to harm the BJP and help INC.  INC sources are saying that BJP admits to the fact that both AAP and AITC are part of a de facto alliance to split the anti-BJP vote.

BJP sources are passing around this article where a key AITC leader says that AITC is about cutting into the Hindu vote to ensure an INC victory


While in an interview senior BJP leader of Maharashtra Nitin Gadkari did speculate that AAP and AITC could cut into anti-BJP vote is being spun by the INC as a BJP alliance with AIT and AAP to take the anti-incumbency vote.


It is clear that both BJP and INC see the race more and more in bipolar terms and are working to try to consolidate its vote against the other from the other parties (AAP MGP-AITC).