Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[Democratic Hawk]

Ireland, Panelbase poll:

FF-RE: 23% (-1)
SF-LEFT: 21% (+7)
FG-EPP: 19% (-7)
GREEN-G/EFA: 10% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 5% (-2)
SD-S&D: 5% (+2)
S-PBP-LEFT: 5% (+1)

+/- vs. 2016 election

Fieldwork: 24-30 January 2020
Sample size: 1,000
Polling average: https://t.co/Pjh0Ruzgg3
#GE2020 https://t.co/gPgnrD8zq3

Ireland, Europe Elects seat projection based on Panelbase poll:

FF-RE: 39 (-5)
SF-LEFT: 37 (+14)
FG-EPP: 31 (-18)
GREEN-G/EFA: 18 (+16)
SD-S&D: 8 (+5)
S/PBP-LEFT: 7 (+1)
Labour-S&D: 5 (-2)
I4C-LEFT: 3 (-1)
Independents: 11 (-2)
Speaker: 1

+/- vs. 2016 election

#GE2020 #Ireland https://t.co/wKUS1Uewfy

[EastAnglianLefty]

That looks very much like a FG-FF grand coalition, supported by the Greens if they're dumb enough, or Labour and some independents if not.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

[Lord Halifax]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

How high would SF need to be polling now to actually have a chance of winning?

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

How high would SF need to be polling now to actually have a chance of winning?

In terms of seat totals, they're only running 42 candidates which is nowhere near enough.

In terms of raw votes, they'd need to be polling well clear of FF, taking account of known polling discrepancies.

[Silent Hunter]

Why only 42 candidates?

[bigic]

Why only 42 candidates?

AFAIK because they underperformed in the 2019 locals so they nominated fewer candidates to maximise vote-to-seat radio under that vote share. Running fewer candidates can be a good strategy in the Irish STV electoral system.

[ObserverIE]

Generally if you hope to win n seats in a constituency, it makes sense to run a maximum of n + 1 candidates, e.g. if you're in a 4-seat constituency where the quota is 20% and you expect your vote to be in a 12-18% range, 1 candidate makes sense, whereas if your likely vote is above 25% then 2 candidates with a vote split evenly between them may be a better option (3 in that situation is potentially suicidal unless you can guarantee a very strong transfer ratio between candidates).

[mileslunn]

What is the chance of a left wing coalition of SF + Greens + Labour + smaller left wing parties?  Seems unlikely but at least shift suggests support for left wing parties is unusually high for Ireland which is odd as left has traditionally been weak here while in rest of Europe where historically strong, its now at an all time low.

[Estrella]

What is the chance of a left wing coalition of SF + Greens + Labour + smaller left wing parties?  Seems unlikely but at least shift suggests support for left wing parties is unusually high for Ireland which is odd as left has traditionally been weak here while in rest of Europe where historically strong, its now at an all time low.

None.

Irish Labour have never exactly been paragons of socialism, but today they've become something like the Liberals in Canada, and that's on a good day. Same goes for the Greens and the Social Democrats. Plus, there's the fact that Sinn Féin has a similar position in the Irish political system as far right in the rest of Europe - a party of working-class nationalist populism. I'm sure most of Irish media (and Labour/Green voters) would react to an SF victory as if they were the Le Pens.

I'm not Irish, so this is pure guessing and don't take it too seriously, but perhaps Labor's (and rest of Irish centre-left's) party culture was so influenced by the constant anti-FF coalitions they took part in that they came to view FF and what it represents (working class, countryside, not being urban secular bobos etc.) as their enemy. SF is culturally basically pre-Irish Tiger FF turned up to 11, so it makes sense Labour would hate them in a system where ideology isn't that important. Again, I'm just making up theories.

As for what the government could be, I mused about something earlier in this thread.

Seeing that the results could end up being not very different from last time, are FF open to continuing to support FG in government? If they are too fed up with them and/or finish first, and have enough seats to govern with support of Sinn Féin+indies, would they go for that option?

[Oryxslayer]

Well, if we are making up theories now than I suspect Sinns good poll numbers presently may have something to do with Brexit happening last week and it's effect on the Irish identity. It's the kind of thing that would drop off after the story leaves the news... except the election is in a few days.

[rob in cal]

Intresting that the perception is that SF is a nationalist populist party.  I thought SF viewed itself as a pro EU left leaning party with some populist atributes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Intresting that the perception is that SF is a nationalist populist party.  I thought SF viewed itself as a pro EU left leaning party with some populist atributes.

I suppose the obvious (though also basically correct) answer is that, these days at least, it is a bit of both.

[Velasco]

[
Plus, there's the fact that Sinn Féin has a similar position in the Irish political system as far right in the rest of Europe - a party of working-class nationalist populism. I'm sure most of Irish media (and Labour/Green voters) would react to an SF victory as if they were the Le Pens.

Not a big fan of the shinners, but the comparison is unfair. On the one hand, establishing the comparison based on their working-class constituency is... classist. If anyone wants to compare SF and the formerly named ''National Front'', the correct approach is looking for their policies. What is the SF platform advocating on immigration, economy, bread and butter policies? On the other hand, ''nationalism' and''populism'' are ery broad umbrelllas. Where are the similarities between their respective national projects? Have they the same idea of ''people''?

Anyway the laziness of Irish media is not remarkable. Many lazy commentators in Spain have established somilar comparisons with Podemos. SF has a big affinity with Bildu, btw.

[Democratic Hawk]

Seemingly 7 Fine Gael TDs are retiring. No Fianna Fail TD is retiring

[Democratic Hawk]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

Ireland, Europe Elects seat projection based on Red C poll:

FF-RE: 46 (+2)
FG-EPP: 40 (-9)
SF-LEFT: 39 (+16)
GREEN-G/EFA: 8 (+6)
LAB-S&D: 5 (-2)
SD-S&D: 4 (+1)
I4C-LEFT: 3 (-1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 0 (-6)
Independents: 14 (-5)
Speaker: 1

+/- vs. 2016 election

#GE2020 #Ireland https://t.co/HJotloG2N

[jaymichaud]

Who's predicted to win the youth vote? Greens?

[Democratic Hawk]

Who's predicted to win the youth vote? Greens?

Sinn Fein

[Vosem]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

Ireland, Europe Elects seat projection based on Red C poll:

FF-RE: 46 (+2)
FG-EPP: 40 (-9)
SF-LEFT: 39 (+16)
GREEN-G/EFA: 8 (+6)
LAB-S&D: 5 (-2)
SD-S&D: 4 (+1)
I4C-LEFT: 3 (-1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 0 (-6)
Independents: 14 (-5)
Speaker: 1

+/- vs. 2016 election

#GE2020 #Ireland https://t.co/HJotloG2N

Why does FG do so well, and what's the margin of error on that seat count? Is there a realistic outcome where they place first in seats in spite of being third in votes?

[Democratic Hawk]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

Ireland, Europe Elects seat projection based on Red C poll:

FF-RE: 46 (+2)
FG-EPP: 40 (-9)
SF-LEFT: 39 (+16)
GREEN-G/EFA: 8 (+6)
LAB-S&D: 5 (-2)
SD-S&D: 4 (+1)
I4C-LEFT: 3 (-1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 0 (-6)
Independents: 14 (-5)
Speaker: 1

+/- vs. 2016 election

#GE2020 #Ireland https://t.co/HJotloG2N

Why does FG do so well, and what's the margin of error on that seat count? Is there a realistic outcome where they place first in seats in spite of being third in votes?

How @EuropeElects makes 'his' projections I don't know but some comments are sceptical.

Its conceivable, as they are only running 42 candidates, that SFein may best FF in the popular vote but return fewer TDs. Don't think FG will win the most seats as things stand.

A new poll puts SF on 25%, FF 23% and FG 20%

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-leads-way-in-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-with-highest-support-ever-1.4160461

A surge in support for SF is being driven among the under-50s and working class voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any reason why?

Because the Irish housing market is really quite uniquely fucked.

[Zinneke]

Are there any major politicians advocated seperating Dublin's institutions or radically transforming its urban composition. Surely you cure the housing market partly by stopping the Dublin-centric madness.

Also this is a major problem for SF :

[Democratic Hawk]

Are there any major politicians advocated seperating Dublin's institutions or radically transforming its urban composition. Surely you cure the housing market partly by stopping the Dublin-centric madness.

Also this is a major problem for SF :

And the most popular coalition is FF-Lab-Green. Add in the Social Democrats and they'd still come up short.

Labour voters seem more favourable towards a coalition with FF.

[Estrella]

For those interested in the past Dáil, local, presidential and EU elections, there's a great collection of maps and some writeups at Irish Political Maps.

[palandio]

[...]

Also this is a major problem for SF :

Yes and no at the same time.

SF has always been a party that is particularly unpopular with many non-SF voters. One effect of this is receiving less vote transfers from voters with other first preferences which then again leads to less seats for SF.

On the other hand being disliked by 35% seems to be not that much of a problem if there is still enough voters who would vote for you. The interesting question is rather if SF has become more ore less transfer-friendly among the remaining 65% than it has been in the past.