Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[Lord Halifax]

Good poll for FF.
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[Lord Halifax]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

How high would SF need to be polling now to actually have a chance of winning?

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/Muinchille/status/1226574382589448192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[Lord Halifax]

Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

How realistic is it that FF's parliamentary group would accept such a humiliation?

[Lord Halifax]

" ... this week's election of a new Seanad appears to have narrowed political options. It's the view of the Attorney General, and the Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach, that the Seanad can't be properly constituted until a new Taoiseach appoints 11 new Senators.

Whatever about the procedure, this means that the Government - in the middle of an unprecedented crisis - can't pass any legislation. That alone should be enough to pressurise parties into making decisions which either elect a new government or - yes it's possible - precipitate a new General Election."

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0330/1127234-politics-government/

[Lord Halifax]

The position of Taoiseach will rotate though (Israeli model), in 2022 Varadkar is set to become Prime Minister again.

If they're gonna have a rotation agreement, then wouldn't it make the most sense (especially considering the ongoing crisis) to keep Varadkar for the first part of it & then switch to Martin in '22? For continuity's sake, if nothing else?

Martin leads the biggest party, he desperately wants to be Taoiseach, and even if he didn't he would not be able to sell the deal to his membership if Varadkar could just continue.