Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[ObserverIE]

This week we had a homeless man get his back broken when council workers bulldozed his tent on a canal bank in very very plush Dublin 2 without bothering to check that there was no-one inside, all under the smiling gaze of a poster of the posh-boy FG Minister for Housing under whose reign homelessness and rents in Dublin have rocketed. The response of Varadkar was of course to try and blame it on the Lord Mayor of Dublin (a ceremonial post; Dublin, like all local authorities in Ireland, is run under a council-manager system where the executive power is held by an appointee manager) who is running as a FF candidate.

There was the particularly gruesome murder of a 17-year-old boy as part of a drugs feud in Drogheda, who was dismembered with his limbs being left in a holdall in one part of Dublin and his head and torso being found in a burnt-out car in another part of the city. The reason why these scumbags can go full Narcos is because half of professional upper-middle class Dublin (obviously excluding Varadkar and his clique personally, just in case any libel lawyers are browsing) love putting Colombia's finest up their nostrils (the country is f***ing awash with the stuff).

I don't think those are conditions in which voters are particularly likely to rally to the party in government. FF have, of course, faults too obvious and too many to mention. But they're not systematically tone-deaf in the way that Varadkar's clique is and their leadership comes from a wider social and geographical background than the Leinster Schools Rugby Cup All-Stars Second XV set and so are less likely to be viewed as being out-of-touch by Ireland beyond the Dublin ring road or even Dublin's workaday western and northern suburbs. Neuf ans, ça suffit.

[ObserverIE]

  I realize Ireland isn't as divided by the nationalist vs internationalist debate as other European countries, but for those voters who are in that mindset, how would an anti-high immigration voter vote, and how about their pro-immigration opponents. Also, is anybody at all supportive of an Irexit, in terms of prominent candidates?

In terms of support for a notional Irexit, on the right there's a small adjunct to UKIP called the Irish Freedom Party which may run a few candidates along with the not-very-well-camouflaged Nazis of the National Party, there are a few fringe dissident republican groups, and, on the far left, you have the "rot set in with Khrushchev" Communist Party. None of them have any significant level of support. Brexit and its association with British nationalism (given the latter's hostility to the notion of Ireland not shutting up and doing what it's told by its rightful masters) has made Irexit a pariah position in the Republic. The Trots and the woke Tankies of the zombie Workers' Party, who supported Brexit back in 2016, have backtracked and obfuscated on the issue in the aftermath.

[ObserverIE]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

[ObserverIE]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

Why did the Fine Gael TD’s overwhelmingly back Varadkar for leader, given that he’s a right-wing Dubliner and the affluent areas of Dublin were the only place where the party didn’t get mauled in 2016? I suppose that Coveney (being a merchant prince and all that) was hardly a man of the people himself, but I feel it would have made more sense to try and pick a candidate who could rebuild support outside of the capital?

Small electorate, power of patronage, knowledge of where bodies buried. Plus the higher echelons of FG have never been renowned for cop-on (e.g. Black-and-Tangent, nominating Gay Mitchell for President in 2011).

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FF 25 (-)
FG 23 (-6)
SF 21 (+7)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
GP 8 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-ff-edges-ahead-of-fg-as-sf-surges-in-new-ipsos-mrbi-poll-1.4145946

This is not actually any better for FG than the other poll although their dimmer Twitter outriders are trying to clutch at the straw of comparing one polling company's figures with another's.

Comparing this poll with the corresponding MRBI poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:

FF 28.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 17.1
SF 15.8
GP 8.7
Lab 4.6
SD 3.0
SP/SWP 1.9

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (+2)
FG 23 (-7)
SF 19 (+8)
Oth/Ind 14 (-2)
GP 8 (+1)
Lab 4 (-2)
SD 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)

Given RedC's consistent history of overstating FG's share (at the expense of FF in particular), this is very bad news for them.

The equivalent figures at this stage of the 2016 election were:

FG 28 SF 20 FF 18 Ind/Oth 17 Lab 8 SD 4 SP/SWP 3 GP 2

Comparing this poll with the corresponding RedC poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:

FF 32.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 18.1
SF 12.8
GP 8.7
SP/SWP 2.9
Lab 2.6
SD 2.0

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Mail on Sunday (changes since Christmas poll):

FF 27 (+2)
FG 22 (-6)
SF 20 (+5)
Ind/Oth 11 (-5)
GP 10 (+3)
Lab 6 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
Aontú 1 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

They called it in the immediate aftermath of Black and Tangent, taking time to lecture the plebs on their lack of nuance in the process.

The defining characteristics of FG are - and always have been - arrogance, snobbishness, and sheer incompetence. Remembering that explains most things about them.

[ObserverIE]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

They called it in the immediate aftermath of Black and Tangent, taking time to lecture the plebs on their lack of nuance in the process.

The defining characteristics of FG are - and always have been - arrogance, snobbishness, and sheer incompetence. Remembering that explains most things about them.

How do you vote IE?

Traditionally used to vote Labour until 2016 (with the single exception of 1997 when I gave Albert Reynolds a first preference).

2016 I gave a first preference to an independent and a second to SF.

This time I will probably vote for the local FF candidate ahead of the local FG one (it's a two-way contest locally and while I like the FG candidate personally his party doesn't deserve to treat us to four more years of "more of the same" on housing or the health service - they need to be taught a lesson unfortunately).

[ObserverIE]

Two questions:

1. Any particular reason Labour are stubbornly failing to bounce back, or is it just their general unlikeability?
2. What independents are we expecting to see returned this time? Presumably they're going to hold the balance of power, so the variety elected will be quite important.

1. Basically memories are too fresh and their leadership team is elderly and jaded (the current party leader was the public expenditure minister enforcing austerity between 2011 and 2016).
2. I think most of the rural gene-pool independents will hold on (Healy-Raes, Lowry, etc.) and former MEP Marian Harkin is likely to join them in Sligo-Leitrim and John Leahy (ex-Renua) is a possibility in Offaly along with the elaborately-spectacled ex-FFer Sharon Keogan in Meath East.



A lot of the more left-wing (or at least gene-pool left) independents are standing down and are unlikely to be replaced and others like Thomas Pringle in Donegal or Joan Collins (no, not that one) in Dublin look to be in trouble.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 24 (-2)
SF 24 (+5)
FG 21 (-2)
Oth/Ind 12 (-2)
GP 7 (-1)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Aontú 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)

Comparing this poll with the equivalent RedC poll at this stage of the 2016 election and projecting forward gives us:

FF 30.3
SF 21.8
Ind/Oth 17.1
FG 16.5
GP 5.7
Lab 3.6
SD 2.0
SP/SWP 1.9

How high would SF need to be polling now to actually have a chance of winning?

In terms of seat totals, they're only running 42 candidates which is nowhere near enough.

In terms of raw votes, they'd need to be polling well clear of FF, taking account of known polling discrepancies.

[ObserverIE]

Generally if you hope to win n seats in a constituency, it makes sense to run a maximum of n + 1 candidates, e.g. if you're in a 4-seat constituency where the quota is 20% and you expect your vote to be in a 12-18% range, 1 candidate makes sense, whereas if your likely vote is above 25% then 2 candidates with a vote split evenly between them may be a better option (3 in that situation is potentially suicidal unless you can guarantee a very strong transfer ratio between candidates).

[ObserverIE]

Because neither FF nor FG have any interest in fixing the housing crisis or making any substantial changes to current government policy, so the electorate isn't going to get any less pissed off.

Also, a FF-FG coalition does make it even more difficult to insist that they're actually meaningfully different parties from each other, which means both will probably struggle to keep all their current support in the tent.

Rationally, FF do have an interest "in fixing the housing crisis or making any substantial changes to current government policy" and a lot of FF's backbenchers are making that point directly at party meetings, but FF's leader knows that it's now or never for him personally if he wants to be Taoiseach and is determined to bulldoze any internal opposition in order to get his way. Whether or not we'll see TD defections as a result remains to be seen, but I would expect to see councillors and ordinary members walking at the prospect of putting FG back into office.

Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

The Greens would be fools to sign up for this, but their leader is a posh clown on a bicycle from Ranelagh who thinks that reintroducing wolves into the least empty countryside in western Europe apart from Benelux is a good idea and who is also desperate to get into government, so we know what the outcome of that is likely to be.

Essentially this is going to be a FG government with two versions of Nick Clegg as supporting partners and the outcome of the next election will see FF's vote collapse (some of it going to FG but a lot to SF) and the return of the Greens to electoral obscurity. The South Dublin haut bourgeois and the pearl-clutching commentariat are going to be given a three, perhaps, four-year respite before the tsunami hits at the next election and they will deserve everything that's coming to them. The rest of us, however, will have to live with it as well.

[ObserverIE]

Update: Green Party discovers spine, inserts it into party leader via enema.

[ObserverIE]

Why don't FF/FG just go with a minority government propped up by bribing indies? Or maybe by Irish Labour, they seem to genuinely like suicide? (FF-FG-Lab is technically short by 1 but I'm sure there must be a bribable indie out there)

Much harder to get to 80, particularly if any disgruntled FF TDs jump ship. Even among the independents, the gene-pool FG independents (Lowry, Naughten, Fitzpatrick, Verona Murphy) might be up for it but it will be a harder sell for the gene-pool FFers. The "Regional Independents" have 9, and from those you have the four open ex-FGers named, along with Grealish and Canney who supported the last government and possibly Shanahan who is allegedly a stealth FGer, but Peadar Tóibín (Aontú) won't support FG, so that leaves you at a maximum of 80. The "Rural Independents" (Healys-Rae et al) are primarily ex-FFers who would be in sympathy with the FF backbenchers and are too cute to get involved with an obviously doomed project, and the third group of independents (Joan Collins, Pringle, Catherine Connolly, McNamara, Marian Harkin and Fitzmaurice) are left to centrist (in that order) and are the least likely to bite ideologically.

Regardless of whether the suppurating corpse of the Labour Party ends up being led by AK Water Pistol or Captain NIMBY, they're not actually stupid enough to prop up FG again. I think .

[ObserverIE]

Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

How realistic is it that FF's parliamentary group would accept such a humiliation?

It may be difficult enough to get FF's parliamentary group to accept coalition in the first place, but Martin is absolutely desperate.

[ObserverIE]

What happened to "SF should get the first try at government", did they actually try to cobble some kind of coalition? Is Martin desperate enough to try a FF/SF coalition?

Martin ruled it out during the campaign (although he also ruled out a FF-FG coalition - the plan was to woo the Greens, Labour and the SDs and add enough sympathetic independents to get to 80, but FF's bad performance ruled that out). On the day of the count he seemed to soften on the idea only to be contradicted by other senior FFers like Jim O'Callaghan who represents one of the most middle-class constituencies in Dublin and the anti-SF line was restored. Ironically, O'Callaghan has now switched to supporting the idea of a three-party national government arrangement between FF/FG/SF - how much of this is principled reconsideration and how much is playing to the degree of anti-FG sentiment within the FF organization in preparation for a leadership bid remains to be seen.

[ObserverIE]

The position of Taoiseach will rotate though (Israeli model), in 2022 Varadkar is set to become Prime Minister again.

Many people doubt Bibi would keep his word, I read on the Haaretz newspaper there will probably be another election in 2 years time before bibi agrees to rotate with Gantz.

what does the cabinet look like?

Harris and Varadkar are the only two I can see definitely staying on. They won’t want to replace a fairly competent Health Minister, and Varadkar will want to stay on in an important position. He might actually prefer Foreign Affairs if it’s his international profile he wants to keep up.

Social media-obsessed chancer would be a more accurate description, but nevertheless he, along with Donohoe (finance) and Coveney (foreign affairs) will stay on - getting rid of him would be to admit that the performance portrayed to a domestic audience as world-beating was actually slightly better than mediocre (1,700 dead looks much better in comparison with the clownshow next door than it does when compared with other countries in the same situation).

The other likely FG ministers will be Humphreys (currently business, a woman and a Border Protestant) and McEntee.

[ObserverIE]

Having committed electoral suicide once being a junior coalition partner, the Irish Greens are happy to do it *again*? Impressive commitment to the greater good, if nothing else

Essentially, it's a suicide pact for two out of three "partners".

[ObserverIE]

The position of Taoiseach will rotate though (Israeli model), in 2022 Varadkar is set to become Prime Minister again.

Many people doubt Bibi would keep his word, I read on the Haaretz newspaper there will probably be another election in 2 years time before bibi agrees to rotate with Gantz.

what does the cabinet look like?

Harris and Varadkar are the only two I can see definitely staying on. They won’t want to replace a fairly competent Health Minister, and Varadkar will want to stay on in an important position. He might actually prefer Foreign Affairs if it’s his international profile he wants to keep up.

Social media-obsessed chancer would be a more accurate description, but nevertheless he, along with Donohoe (finance) and Coveney (foreign affairs) will stay on - getting rid of him would be to admit that the performance portrayed to a domestic audience as world-beating was actually slightly better than mediocre (1,700 dead looks much better in comparison with the clownshow next door than it does when compared with other countries in the same situation).

The other likely FG ministers will be Humphreys (currently business, a woman and a Border Protestant) and McEntee.

Ugh that sounds waayyy too much like my country

*points at the photograph in my signature*

[ObserverIE]

Ehh... If I was Fine Gael I'd just go to another election after the pandemic. They can win and send Fianna Fail packing, idk why they're doing this.

They would have needed a plausible excuse, i.e. the negotiations collapsing or one of the prospective victimspartners voting No. Otherwise, there are degrees of opportunism that not even Irish newspaper pundits can ignore.

As things stand, Varadkar gets to keep his halo as The Hero Who Saved Us From The Rona (narrator: he didn't) and take over in the latter half of the term when things may be improving economically while FF take the hit in the interim.

[ObserverIE]

I presume Varadkar will be given Foreign Affairs in addition to being Tánaiste, & imagine Martin will also do what Kenny & Varadkar did by keeping Defence for himself?

The expectation is that Coveney will be left in charge of Foreign Affairs while Varadkar takes over a beefed-up Department of Jobs. Foreign travel means that you're not able to keep tabs on what's happening domestically.