Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[DL]

Can someone explain the difference between Laour and the Social Democrats?

[Intell]

SF Transfers

Ind: 20%
SF: 16%
S-PBP: 16%
Green: 11%
FF: 10%
Other?: 6%
Labour: 5%
FG: 5%
SD: 4%

[CumbrianLefty]

Can someone explain the difference between Laour and the Social Democrats?

Social Democrats position themselves as anti-austerity?

[Intell]

If fycking Stephen Donnelly loses I'll fycking laugh.

[EastAnglianLefty]

He's running well ahead of his running mate so he'll probably just about sneak home, but well beaten by the SD candidate.

[xelas81]

Can someone explain the difference between Laour and the Social Democrats?

SD spilt from Labour
Under with STV two parties which are basically the same party with few minor differences can both exist and not be afraid of splitting the vote.

[Tintrlvr]

Where are people getting results? I have RTE's election results page up, but it seems like they may be fairly behind.

[YL]

Sinn Féin seem to be doing OK with transfers in Galway East: on count 4 the SD and Lab candidates (1782 votes total) were eliminated, 670 went Green, 355 to SF, 189 to Canney (Ind), 300 to the two FG candidates and 185 to the two FF candidates.

Current figures
Canney (Ind) 8331
O'Hara (SF) 7649
Cannon (FG) 6536
Roche (FG) 6180
Rabbitte (FF) 5943
Killilea (FF) 5066
Madden (Green) 2647 eliminated

Quota is 10631.

I guess Canney is still favoured together with one FF and one FG, though.

[YL]

Where are people getting results? I have RTE's election results page up, but it seems like they may be fairly behind.

Some "results" are tallies rather than official results.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In most seats where we've had first preferences declared, SF are up about 10 points and the Greens are up 2 or 3 points - except in the south-east of Dublin, where it's the reverse pattern. Which would tend to indicate that social class is having an influence on these results.

[YL]

In Waterford, David Cullinane (SF) has nearly two quotas on his own, and no running mate.

Similarly with Mary Lou McDonald in Dublin Central.

[jaymichaud]

A Sinn Fein government will be a piece of work for UK/Ireland relations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While recently searching for something completely unrelated, I came across The Jerusalem Post's article on this election. While I can understand them focusing on how it might affect Irish-Israeli relations, I found it hilariously provincial that the only thing they bothered with was that the top two parties support a settlement boycott.

https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Settlement-boycotting-parties-win-big-in-Irish-election-616989

It's as if they think Israeli settlement policy was a significant factor in the election. Did it even get mentioned in passing during the campaign?

[Oryxslayer]

A Sinn Fein government will be a piece of work for UK/Ireland relations.

(Un)fortunatly, Sinn didn't run enough candidates and doesn't have enough allies in the Dail for a govt. Last seat projection still has FF+FG >50% of the chamber, and they are still ahead of SF in seats individually. Now, FF may decide to invite SF to be the minority partner, but that would be FF's decision  and involve compromise on SF's part.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Varadkar still not elected after 2nd count.

Leo Varadkar has failed to be elected on the first and second counts in his own constituency of Dublin West - although it would be highly unlikely that he wouldn't be elected after more counts. Nevertheless, this is an embarrassing position for a sitting Taoiseach.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/irish-election-results-latest-sinn-fein-varadkar-fine-gael-fianna-fail-a9325766.html

[Mike88]

Also, reports of high turnout seem to have been highly exaggerated as, until the moment, 62.1% of the electorate cast a ballot. Minus 3% compared with 2016.

[EastAnglianLefty]

SF surpluses seem to be giving notably high transfers to PBP.

[Cassius]

Richard E. Grant likely to be eliminated in Dublin Rathdown.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/Muinchille/status/1226574382589448192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[YL]

Catherine Martin (Green) elected on count 5 in Dublin Rathdown, their second candidate elected.  Shane Ross eliminated.

[Vosem]

Why did SF run less than optimal number of candidates?  Is it becuause they did not expect to do this well ?

Yes; they did poorly in the 2019 local elections and locals held right before a general are often seen as predictive. SF's surge took everyone by surprise, including SF itself.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While recently searching for something completely unrelated, I came across The Jerusalem Post's article on this election. While I can understand them focusing on how it might affect Irish-Israeli relations, I found it hilariously provincial that the only thing they bothered with was that the top two parties support a settlement boycott.

https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Settlement-boycotting-parties-win-big-in-Irish-election-616989

It's as if they think Israeli settlement policy was a significant factor in the election. Did it even get mentioned in passing during the campaign?

Most likely not but the publication literally is Israeli so it's gonna focus on what's relevant to the readers.

As I said, I can understand making that issue their focus, my point was they literally mentioned nothing else. It's not as if they had to trim the article to fit a fixed number of paper column inches for their website.

[Oryxslayer]

Why did SF run less than optimal number of candidates?  Is it becuause they did not expect to do this well ?

Yes; they did poorly in the 2019 local elections and locals held right before a general are often seen as predictive. SF's surge took everyone by surprise, including SF itself.

They also benefited from circumstances outside their control; Brexit was only a week ago after all.

[Democratic Hawk]

Quite a change in fortunes for Independent Peter Casey.

2018 Presidential election - 342,727 votes, 23.3% share.

#GE2020 - 495 first prefs, 1.1% share. Eliminated after second count. https://t.co/OUn7xx5bSS

[YL]

In Dublin South Central, Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF) had a surplus of 8,356 votes (nearly a whole quota) and no running mate.

On count 2, those votes went
4794 to Bríd Smith (Solidarity/People Before Profit) who is now elected
1747 to Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change)
408 to Patrick Costello (Green)
326 to Tara Deacy (Social Democrats)
235 to Rebecca Moynihan (Lab)
231 to Catherine Ardagh (FF)
213 to Richard Murray (Ind)
138 to Serina Murphy (National Party)
114 to Catherine Byrne (FG)
and smaller numbers to other independent candidates