Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[mileslunn]

My guess is neither party wins a majority and with both parties not willing to work with Sinn Fein, likely another supply and confidence rely on other.  I believe Fine Gael will likely win, but admittedly with it being right after Brexit, that could figure bigger in the election.

[mileslunn]

What is the difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael? They’re both listed as pro-European conservative parties, which is obviously an over-simplification.

Both are broadly centrist with a slight rightward tilt but Fine Gael is somewhat more conservative although for comparisons Fine Gael would be like the Red Tories in Canada of the old Progressive Conservatives pre-merger or the One Nation Tories in UK such as exemplified by Kenneth Clarke while Fianna Fail would be like the Blue Liberals in Canada or Orange book Liberal Democrats in UK.  The real difference is from the Irish civil war but unlike parties elsewhere in Europe ideological differences are rather small.  Ireland being a small homogenous country lacks the polarization you see in most other countries thus smaller differences.

[mileslunn]

Another comparison between the two parties would be Atlantic Canada where Liberals and PCs are not all that different but more represent different regions and factions.  Federally it used to be like that in Canada too where both were big tent and little ideological differences but not today and I guess more what is surprising is you haven't seen the strong ideological divergence in Ireland you've seen in other countries.  Mind you being a small and homogenous one probably makes it easier to get greater consensus than a larger more diverse one.  I think a lot of the more left wing and more right wing is more a reaction to the other side and feeling they don't represent them so they go to the opposite side.

[mileslunn]

What is the chance of a left wing coalition of SF + Greens + Labour + smaller left wing parties?  Seems unlikely but at least shift suggests support for left wing parties is unusually high for Ireland which is odd as left has traditionally been weak here while in rest of Europe where historically strong, its now at an all time low.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if Sinn Fein is sort of having a similar surge to what Corbyn had in 2017.  Lots of young voters like strongly left wing parties, but once they come under greater scrutiny like Corbyn did in 2019 they fall apart.  I suspect Sinn Fein does really well but doesn't form government and next time around they come under much greater scrutiny.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Varadkar may get to remain taoiseach of Ireland although I suspect it will take a while perhaps a few months before we know what the shape of the next government is.  Also possible like Spain and Israel, this results in another election.  Either way, I suspect that either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail will form government, but who will be part of it will be interesting.  Sinn Fein due to limited # of candidates and both main parties promising not to go into coalition with them likely won't and indeed the fear Sinn Fein will run a full slate next time around is probably why some agreement will be formed.  If Sinn Fein ran a full slate, there is a chance they might be able to form a left wing coalition with Greens + Labour + Social Democrats + People before Profit as exit poll puts those parties combined at 41% but this time around pretty sure they will fall short so that won't be viable.  Although good chance coalition includes one of the left wing parties, most likely Greens.

[mileslunn]

Surprisingly strong for FG/weak for FF in the exit poll compared to pre-election polling. We'll see what the actual results look like. I don't recall historically how good exit polls are in Ireland; do they have a good reputation? I think this would result in FF largest party as FG, having been in government for a while, will probably have worse transfers, but very uncertain of course. (SF will likely struggle with transfers as usual and should be 5-10 seats short of FG/FF on a tied first vote.)

They are quite good, much like UK, pre-election polling known for misses although due to STV system first preference polling can sometimes be deceiving unlike in FTFP.  Don't know if Ireland has had a big miss, but with UK last time that happened was 1992 but with modern technology that could be avoided as I believe there was a 4 hour delay so those who voted after work weren't included in exit poll like they are now and that group voted heavily Tory in 1992 while morning and day voters more favourable to Labour.

[mileslunn]

If Varadkar’s numbers stay up, is it possible that he can force the others to give him a government? If so, not bad for a party that is in third place, even if it’s a very close third.

He is a doctor and apparently has gone back to practicing so I think based on what is happening now that is quite timely.