Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Anyone have basic demographic analysis of the parties as well as exit polls of the last election?

various stats and analysis in this thread:

https://twitter.com/rofitz17/status/978291147595448326?s=20

https://twitter.com/rofitz17/status/1060248725635899394?s=20

[ObserverIE]

  I realize Ireland isn't as divided by the nationalist vs internationalist debate as other European countries, but for those voters who are in that mindset, how would an anti-high immigration voter vote, and how about their pro-immigration opponents. Also, is anybody at all supportive of an Irexit, in terms of prominent candidates?

In terms of support for a notional Irexit, on the right there's a small adjunct to UKIP called the Irish Freedom Party which may run a few candidates along with the not-very-well-camouflaged Nazis of the National Party, there are a few fringe dissident republican groups, and, on the far left, you have the "rot set in with Khrushchev" Communist Party. None of them have any significant level of support. Brexit and its association with British nationalism (given the latter's hostility to the notion of Ireland not shutting up and doing what it's told by its rightful masters) has made Irexit a pariah position in the Republic. The Trots and the woke Tankies of the zombie Workers' Party, who supported Brexit back in 2016, have backtracked and obfuscated on the issue in the aftermath.

[ObserverIE]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

[Cassius]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

Why did the Fine Gael TD’s overwhelmingly back Varadkar for leader, given that he’s a right-wing Dubliner and the affluent areas of Dublin were the only place where the party didn’t get mauled in 2016? I suppose that Coveney (being a merchant prince and all that) was hardly a man of the people himself, but I feel it would have made more sense to try and pick a candidate who could rebuild support outside of the capital?

[ObserverIE]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

Why did the Fine Gael TD’s overwhelmingly back Varadkar for leader, given that he’s a right-wing Dubliner and the affluent areas of Dublin were the only place where the party didn’t get mauled in 2016? I suppose that Coveney (being a merchant prince and all that) was hardly a man of the people himself, but I feel it would have made more sense to try and pick a candidate who could rebuild support outside of the capital?

Small electorate, power of patronage, knowledge of where bodies buried. Plus the higher echelons of FG have never been renowned for cop-on (e.g. Black-and-Tangent, nominating Gay Mitchell for President in 2011).

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FF 25 (-)
FG 23 (-6)
SF 21 (+7)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
GP 8 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-ff-edges-ahead-of-fg-as-sf-surges-in-new-ipsos-mrbi-poll-1.4145946

This is not actually any better for FG than the other poll although their dimmer Twitter outriders are trying to clutch at the straw of comparing one polling company's figures with another's.

Comparing this poll with the corresponding MRBI poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:

FF 28.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 17.1
SF 15.8
GP 8.7
Lab 4.6
SD 3.0
SP/SWP 1.9

[sinngael]

The Irish Language TV Station TG4 has conducted a poll in the Donegal constituency. This a 5 seater that went 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 Ind in 2016.


Doherty SF - 27%
McHugh FG - 17%
McConalogue FF - 12%
Mac Lochlainn SF - 12%
Gallagher FF - 10%
Pringle Ind - 6%
O'Donnell Ind - 4%
White Greens - 4%
Sweeney Aontú - 3%
M Harley FG - 3%
P Casey Ind - 2%
N McConnell - 1%

Given that I'm from this constitunecy, this poll is a bit of a surprise. That is a huge vote for Doherty and I would expect Fianna Fail to outperform those numbers. It also seems pretty generous for McHugh.

Common wisdom would have Doherty's seat and the 2 Fianna Fail being comfortably returned. The last two will be a battle between Pringle, Mac Lochlainn and McHugh.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (+2)
FG 23 (-7)
SF 19 (+8)
Oth/Ind 14 (-2)
GP 8 (+1)
Lab 4 (-2)
SD 3 (+1)
SP/SWP 2 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)

Given RedC's consistent history of overstating FG's share (at the expense of FF in particular), this is very bad news for them.

The equivalent figures at this stage of the 2016 election were:

FG 28 SF 20 FF 18 Ind/Oth 17 Lab 8 SD 4 SP/SWP 3 GP 2

Comparing this poll with the corresponding RedC poll at the same point in the 2016 campaign and projecting forward to election day would give:

FF 32.3
FG 20.5
Ind/Oth 18.1
SF 12.8
GP 8.7
SP/SWP 2.9
Lab 2.6
SD 2.0

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks for the Irish Mail on Sunday (changes since Christmas poll):

FF 27 (+2)
FG 22 (-6)
SF 20 (+5)
Ind/Oth 11 (-5)
GP 10 (+3)
Lab 6 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
Aontú 1 (+1)

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Epic Fáil is back huh? What a time to be alive.

[CumbrianLefty]

So Epic Fáil is back huh? What a time to be alive.

Yes, this does rather dilute the joy at the prospect of FG getting what they deserve.

[crals]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

[CumbrianLefty]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Two questions:

1. Any particular reason Labour are stubbornly failing to bounce back, or is it just their general unlikeability?
2. What independents are we expecting to see returned this time? Presumably they're going to hold the balance of power, so the variety elected will be quite important.

[ObserverIE]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

They called it in the immediate aftermath of Black and Tangent, taking time to lecture the plebs on their lack of nuance in the process.

The defining characteristics of FG are - and always have been - arrogance, snobbishness, and sheer incompetence. Remembering that explains most things about them.

[DC Al Fine]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

They called it in the immediate aftermath of Black and Tangent, taking time to lecture the plebs on their lack of nuance in the process.

The defining characteristics of FG are - and always have been - arrogance, snobbishness, and sheer incompetence. Remembering that explains most things about them.

How do you vote IE?

[ObserverIE]

Why did FG want an early election that they are likely to lose?

They were polling better then?

They called it in the immediate aftermath of Black and Tangent, taking time to lecture the plebs on their lack of nuance in the process.

The defining characteristics of FG are - and always have been - arrogance, snobbishness, and sheer incompetence. Remembering that explains most things about them.

How do you vote IE?

Traditionally used to vote Labour until 2016 (with the single exception of 1997 when I gave Albert Reynolds a first preference).

2016 I gave a first preference to an independent and a second to SF.

This time I will probably vote for the local FF candidate ahead of the local FG one (it's a two-way contest locally and while I like the FG candidate personally his party doesn't deserve to treat us to four more years of "more of the same" on housing or the health service - they need to be taught a lesson unfortunately).

[ObserverIE]

Two questions:

1. Any particular reason Labour are stubbornly failing to bounce back, or is it just their general unlikeability?
2. What independents are we expecting to see returned this time? Presumably they're going to hold the balance of power, so the variety elected will be quite important.

1. Basically memories are too fresh and their leadership team is elderly and jaded (the current party leader was the public expenditure minister enforcing austerity between 2011 and 2016).
2. I think most of the rural gene-pool independents will hold on (Healy-Raes, Lowry, etc.) and former MEP Marian Harkin is likely to join them in Sligo-Leitrim and John Leahy (ex-Renua) is a possibility in Offaly along with the elaborately-spectacled ex-FFer Sharon Keogan in Meath East.



A lot of the more left-wing (or at least gene-pool left) independents are standing down and are unlikely to be replaced and others like Thomas Pringle in Donegal or Joan Collins (no, not that one) in Dublin look to be in trouble.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is it that unfair to say that Irish Labour is basically the Observer (note - NOT the Guardian) in party political form? Whatever the label, I for one would find that about as appetising as a cup of cold sick.

[LabourJersey]

Two questions:

1. Any particular reason Labour are stubbornly failing to bounce back, or is it just their general unlikeability?
2. What independents are we expecting to see returned this time? Presumably they're going to hold the balance of power, so the variety elected will be quite important.

1. Basically memories are too fresh and their leadership team is elderly and jaded (the current party leader was the public expenditure minister enforcing austerity between 2011 and 2016).
2. I think most of the rural gene-pool independents will hold on (Healy-Raes, Lowry, etc.) and former MEP Marian Harkin is likely to join them in Sligo-Leitrim and John Leahy (ex-Renua) is a possibility in Offaly along with the elaborately-spectacled ex-FFer Sharon Keogan in Meath East.



A lot of the more left-wing (or at least gene-pool left) independents are standing down and are unlikely to be replaced and others like Thomas Pringle in Donegal or Joan Collins (no, not that one) in Dublin look to be in trouble.

Having the main administrator of austerity running a labor party has to be the worst political decision I've seen in a long while

[Democratic Hawk]

Ireland, Panelbase poll:

FF-RE: 23% (-1)
SF-LEFT: 21% (+7)
FG-EPP: 19% (-7)
GREEN-G/EFA: 10% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 5% (-2)
SD-S&D: 5% (+2)
S-PBP-LEFT: 5% (+1)

+/- vs. 2016 election

Fieldwork: 24-30 January 2020
Sample size: 1,000
Polling average: https://t.co/Pjh0Ruzgg3
#GE2020 https://t.co/gPgnrD8zq3

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's happening with the Social Democrats and the far-left? It seems like the latter has fallen back since last time; is this a consequence of the economy being a bit better or is it self-inflicted? And are the former building an identity besides being Labour but even more middle-class and a little less keen on austerity?

[DL]

According to the polls we are getting very close to a point where all the left of centre parties (i.e. SF, Greens, Labour, SD, S) are getting close to 50% of the vote. Could Ireland end up with its first ever left of centre government and put both FF and FG in opposition?

[Democratic Hawk]

What is the difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael? They’re both listed as pro-European conservative parties, which is obviously an over-simplification.

John O'Farrell related - in his absolutely classic book Things Can Only Get Better - asking an old Irish bloke this very question back in the 1990s. The reply - "its the difference between s*** and s***e"

Came across this from an article in The Irish Times

Years ago, the late Jackie Healy-Rae, while he was still a member of Fianna Fáil, was asked to explain the difference between the two parties. His response: “Them that know don’t need to ask and them that ask will never know.”

[Democratic Hawk]

Anyone have basic demographic analysis of the parties as well as exit polls of the last election?

You can find demographic data for The Irish Times/Ipsos-MRBI Poll here:

 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll