Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[Mike88]

A seat prediction using the exit poll data:

https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1226272588613259266

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

As someone on Twitter noticed, it’s quite funny that Sinn Fein is projected at 32 seats

[Democratic Hawk]

A seat prediction using the exit poll data:

https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1226272588613259266

Transfers should benefit FF giving them the edge over FG.

[brucejoel99]

Leo ought to be very pleased that he & FG have avoid their predicted wipeout. And of course FF probably isn't too happy that they've failed to capitalize on FG's supposed unpopularity.

Looking forward to the count tomorrow!

Looks like Varadkar may get to remain taoiseach of Ireland although I suspect it will take a while perhaps a few months before we know what the shape of the next government is.  Also possible like Spain and Israel, this results in another election.  Either way, I suspect that either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail will form government, but who will be part of it will be interesting.  Sinn Fein due to limited # of candidates and both main parties promising not to go into coalition with them likely won't and indeed the fear Sinn Fein will run a full slate next time around is probably why some agreement will be formed.  If Sinn Fein ran a full slate, there is a chance they might be able to form a left wing coalition with Greens + Labour + Social Democrats + People before Profit as exit poll puts those parties combined at 41% but this time around pretty sure they will fall short so that won't be viable.  Although good chance coalition includes one of the left wing parties, most likely Greens.

No way either FF or FG will have another election, especially one in which SF would greatly increase the number of candidates they have standing. There will 100% be another confidence & supply deal between FG & FF.

[NOVA Green]

As an Irish-American am extremely delighted that Sinn Fein is not only a contender, but will likely be represented in the seats of power....

We will see our six occupied counties from the North United and Free...

All Irish Men and Women will raise the flag of the Green, Orange, and White.

BREXIT has caused a dream that all Irish Patriots have been longing for Centuries....

It was never about sectarian violence in the North (Let alone the South)....

British Army withdrew after the peace agreements, and we put down our arms....

We stood by the pledge and  won election after election in both North and South for decades....

SF is not only the largest Party in Occupied Northern Ireland, and  now apparently tied for 3rd within the South.

Will happily take an honorary Republican Socialist against some crooked rich wanker who claims rights after "clearing the slums of North Dublin", supported Interment during WW II against Irish Republicans....

Although the Church is a thang', and many people grew up in these places, the attempt to enforce religious identity is increasingly running hollow in the Republic proper...

Hell... Brendan Behan was excommunicated way back in the dayz simply for taking a couple of poppers at a couple of coppers in the South of Ireland way back in the early '40s in self defense (No 'arm no foul)....

[Estrella]

As an Irish-American... [snip]

I'm sure Irish people will appreciate your enthusiasm, but you have a kinda too romantic view of things. (Not that I wouldn't support Sinn Féin)

[jaymichaud]

As an Irish-American am extremely delighted that Sinn Fein is not only a contender, but will likely be represented in the seats of power....

We will see our six occupied counties from the North United and Free...

All Irish Men and Women will raise the flag of the Green, Orange, and White.

BREXIT has caused a dream that all Irish Patriots have been longing for Centuries....

It was never about sectarian violence in the North (Let alone the South)....

British Army withdrew after the peace agreements, and we put down our arms....

We stood by the pledge and  won election after election in both North and South for decades....

SF is not only the largest Party in Occupied Northern Ireland, and  now apparently tied for 3rd within the South.

Will happily take an honorary Republican Socialist against some crooked rich wanker who claims rights after "clearing the slums of North Dublin", supported Interment during WW II against Irish Republicans....

Although the Church is a thang', and many people grew up in these places, the attempt to enforce religious identity is increasingly running hollow in the Republic proper...

Hell... Brendan Behan was excommunicated way back in the dayz simply for taking a couple of poppers at a couple of coppers in the South of Ireland way back in the early '40s in self defense (No 'arm no foul)....

Yeah they’re kinda loony but they have the best music

🎶 A comrade on my left and another one on me right,
And a clip of ammunition for me little armalite 🎶

[EastAnglianLefty]

Do they bother making a seat distribution estimate from the exit poll or do we just assume that it will be proportional?

Not proportional. Sinn Féins percentage of support will not be reflected in the number of seats, purely because it has not run enough candidates. Running only 42 candidates has knee capped them. In order to match that they need to have a conversion rate of 83%.

On these figures, if it had run a second candidate in Dublin South Central, Dublin Central, Dublin South West, Dublin Bay North and Cork North Central etc. it would have likely taken a second seat there. Conventional Wisdom also suggests that SF is going to get screwed over due to the fact that they traditionally do net get 2nd preferences to the scale that the other ones do, although I am actually sceptical whether that is going to play out this time, at least not to the same extent it did previously. (M.L. McDonald is not Gerry Adams and whatever toxic image SF had among the older electorate, FF and to a lesser extent FG now have among the young.)
On the other hand FF/FG have done their absolute best to piss away any potential SF transfers, so expect the smaller left parties to do better then the 1pf voteshare might imply.

If the smaller parties do get most of their TDs elected on SF surpluses, it'll be interesting to see to what extent that influences how they deal with FF/FG. Cosying up to them too much may mean that they get screwed even more than the smaller partner in a coalition normally does.

[Intell]

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1mnxeQqPpjPxX (for coverage)

Sinn Fein appears to do well.

[CumbrianLefty]

If they are not underperforming the polls this time, that is itself interesting.

[DaWN]

Why, in the one instance when a party of the left unexpectedly does well in a national election in the Anglosphere, did it have to be these bastards.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, sort of left.

As for Irish Labour - is humane euthanasia the kindest solution?

[Intell]

Why, in the one instance when a party of the left unexpectedly does well in a national election in the Anglosphere, did it have to be these bastards.

Because partiotism for the left allows it to poll well is my opinion- similar to how the left does well the left does in Scotland because it has rhetoric that makes it the nationalist party against English London intrests.

[Democratic Hawk]

Leo ought to be very pleased that he & FG have avoid their predicted wipeout. And of course FF probably isn't too happy that they've failed to capitalize on FG's supposed unpopularity.

Looking forward to the count tomorrow!

Looks like Varadkar may get to remain taoiseach of Ireland although I suspect it will take a while perhaps a few months before we know what the shape of the next government is.  Also possible like Spain and Israel, this results in another election.  Either way, I suspect that either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail will form government, but who will be part of it will be interesting.  Sinn Fein due to limited # of candidates and both main parties promising not to go into coalition with them likely won't and indeed the fear Sinn Fein will run a full slate next time around is probably why some agreement will be formed.  If Sinn Fein ran a full slate, there is a chance they might be able to form a left wing coalition with Greens + Labour + Social Democrats + People before Profit as exit poll puts those parties combined at 41% but this time around pretty sure they will fall short so that won't be viable.  Although good chance coalition includes one of the left wing parties, most likely Greens.

No way either FF or FG will have another election, especially one in which SF would greatly increase the number of candidates they have standing. There will 100% be another confidence & supply deal between FG & FF.

But if FF finishes ahead of FG Micheal Martin could be Taoiseach.

Don't see a left-leaning centrist FF-Green-Lab-SocDem coalition getting sufficient TDs.

Independents could have a significant impact on government formation.

[Democratic Hawk]

I assume that in a constituency where SF could have elected a second MP the “leftover” SF votes go to whoever was their second preference.,,who do SF voters tend to preference? Greens? Labour? Independents?

It's expected that the ST surplus will benefit the Greens, S-PBP and even FF.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The sense I'm getting from reports of tallies is that Labour aren't doing that well out of SF transfers and with FG mostly not having surpluses to pass on that could be very bad for them. If they end up finishing behind the SDs then that would be an absolute humiliation for them.

[Intell]

Seats based upon current results

Carlow-Kilkeny:


FF: 2
FG: 2
SF: 1



Cavan-Mongahan:


SF: 2
FG: 1
FF: 1

Clare:  

FF: 1
SF: 1
Ind (Micheal McNamara): 1
FG: 1

Cork East

FF: 1/2
SF: 1
FG: 1
Labour: 0/1

Cork North. Central

SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1
S-PBP:  0/1
Green: 0/1

Cork-North West:

FF: 1/2
FG: 1/2

Cork South-Central

SF: 1
FF: 1/2
FG: 1
Green: 0/1

Cork South-West

Ind: 1 (Micheal Collins)
FF: 1
Soc Dems: 1

Donegal

SF: 2
FF: 1/2
FG: 1
Ind: Thomas Pringle: 0/1

Dublin-Bay North


SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1
Labour: 1
Green: 1

Dublin-Midwest

SF: 2
FG: 1
Solidarity-PBP: 0/1
FF: 0/1

Dublin Fingal

SF: 1
FF: 1
Green: 1
FG: 1
Labour: 1

Dublin-Bay South

Green: 1
FG: 1/2
SF: 1
FF: 0/1
Labour: 0/1

Dublin-Rathdown


Green: 1
FG: 1
FF: 0/1
SF: 0/1

Dublin West

SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1
Green: 1

Dublin Central

SF: 1
Green: 1
FG: 1
Soc Dems: 0/1
FF: 0/1

Dublin South-West

SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1
Greens: 1
S-PBP: 0/1
Katherine Zippone: 0/1

Dublin North-west

SF: 1
SD: 1
FF: 0/1
FG: 0/1

Dublin South-Central

SF: 1
FG: 1`
PBP: 1
FF: 0/1
Greens: 0/1
Inds4Change: 0/1

Dun-Lagoshire

FG: 2
Green: 1
S-PBP: 1

Galway East

IND: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1

Galway West

SF: 1
FF: 1
FG: 1
Ind (Noel Gealrish): 1
Ind: (Catherine Connely): 1

Kerry

Healy Rae: 2
SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1

Kildare-North

SF: 1
SD: 1
FF: 1
FG: 0/1
Green: 0/1


Kildare South

SF: 1
FF: 1
FG: 1

Laois-Offaly

FF: 1
SF: 1
FG: 1
Ind: Carol Nolay

Limerick-County

FG: 1
FF: 1
SF/Ind Richard O’Donoughe: 1

Limerick-City

SF: 1

FF: 1
FG: 1
Green/Labour/Frankie Daly: 1

Longford-Westmeath

SF: 1
FF: 1
Kevin Boxer Moran: 1
FG: 1

Louth

SF: 2
FF: 1
FG: 1
Labour/Ind Fitzpatrick/Green: 1

Mayo:

SF: 1
FG: 1
FF: 1

Meath-East

SF: 1
FG: 1/2
FF: 1/2

Meath-West

SF: 1
Antou: 1
FG: 0/1
FF: 0/1

Roscomon-Galaway

SF: 1 (36)
Ind: 2 (Denis Naughten & Micheal Fitzmaurice)

Sigo-Letrim

FF: 2
SF: 1
Ind: 1 (Martin Harkin)


Tipperary:

Micheal Lowry: 1
Mattie McGrath: 1
SF: 1
Seamus Healy: 0/1
Fine Gael: 0/1
Labour: 0/1
Finna Fail: 0/1

Waterford:

SF: 1
FF: 1
Matt Shanhan: 1
FG: 0/1
Green: 0/1

Wexford

SF: 1
FF: 1
FG: 1
Labour: 0/1
Verona Murphy: 0/1

Wicklow

FG: 1
SF: 1
FF: 1
SD: 1
Green : 1

[Intell]

Apparently SF preferences go heavily basically to everyone but FG- to hard-left parties, soft left parties and FF.

[DL]

Any updated seat projections now that actual vote tallies are coming in?

[Intell]

FF: 39-46
FG: 35-40
SF: 36-40
Green: 9-14
Labour: 4-7
S-PBP: 3-5
SD: 3-6
Ind: 12-18

FG should be around 35-36 rather than 39-40 due to (apparently) extremely poor transfers from SF.

[cp]

FF: 39-46
FG: 35-40
SF: 36-40
Green: 9-14
Labour: 4-7
S-PBP: 3-5
SD: 3-6
Ind: 12-18

FG should be around 35-36 rather than 39-40 due to (apparently) extremely poor transfers from SF.

If FG and FF combined both end up <80 seats it would be quite the revolution. I'm not sure how enduring a rainbow left coalition would be, but still.

[DL]

So it seems pretty certain then that some sort of FF led minority government will end up being formed in the end and Varadcar will be gone as PM

[Democratic Hawk]

SF is not only the largest Party in Occupied Northern Ireland, and  now apparently tied for 3rd within the South.

SF is the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland.

[Diouf]

Any updated seat projections now that actual vote tallies are coming in?

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1226518265234628609

[jaichind]

Why did SF run less than optimal number of candidates?  Is it becuause they did not expect to do this well ?