Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[YL]

Dún Laoghaire, count 6.  4 seats, quota 12,459

Smyth (Green) 12,510 elected
MacNeill (FG) 11,488
Boyd Barrett (Solidarity-PBP) 11,119
Mitchell O'Connor (FG) 10,136
Devlin (FF) 9,994
O'Brien (SF) 6,432 eliminated

My guess here is that the SF transfers will help Boyd Barrett most but will favour Devlin enough over the FG candidates to make the result 1 Green, 1 Sol/PBP, 1 FG, 1 FF.

[Mike88]

Sinn Féin will probably be the most voted party in 1st preferences, when there's just 1 district out:

24.1% SF (+10.7)
22.1% FF (-2.1)
20.7% FG (-4.7)
  7.3% Greens (+4.5)
  4.5% Labour (-2.3)
  3.0% SD (-0.1)
  2.7% S-PBP (-1.4)
  1.8% AON (new)
12.6% Independents (-3.3)
  1.3% Others (-3.1)

62.8% Turnout (-2.3)

[Former President tack50]

As someone who is somewhat acquainted with having to calculate STV results, how does Ireland avoid using decimals to count second preferences?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to follow the official count?

[Vosem]

Link to follow the official count?

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national

Things are winding down a bit as certain constituencies have stopped the count for the night, to be resumed in the morning, but progress is still being made.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to follow the official count?

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national

Things are winding down a bit as certain constituencies have stopped the count for the night, to be resumed in the morning, but progress is still being made.

Thanks!

[DL]

I ha e a question about how preferences get distributed under STV in Ireland. I get how lowest candidates get dropped on each count and their votes go to their second preferences etc... but how do surplus votes get distributed. Let’s say a seat requires 10,000 votes to make quota and there is just one SF candidate and that person gets 13,000 votes. How do they decide which 3,000 of the 13,000 first preferences are considered surplus and get distributed to second preferences and which ones don’t?

[YL]

As someone who is somewhat acquainted with having to calculate STV results, how does Ireland avoid using decimals to count second preferences?

They select a random sample from the pile which includes the surplus.  (Unlike in Northern Ireland, or in Scottish local elections, or indeed most other STV systems, where all potential surplus votes are transferred but at fractional weights.)

[Gary J]

I ha e a question about how preferences get distributed under STV in Ireland. I get how lowest candidates get dropped on each count and their votes go to their second preferences etc... but how do surplus votes get distributed. Let’s say a seat requires 10,000 votes to make quota and there is just one SF candidate and that person gets 13,000 votes. How do they decide which 3,000 of the 13,000 first preferences are considered surplus and get distributed to second preferences and which ones don’t?

The detail  is contained in the Irish government guide (see sections 3.4 - overview of the surplus distribution procedure - and 3.5 - detailed surplus calculations).

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/pr-stv_guide.pdf

[EastAnglianLefty]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

[Intell]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

No argument for a SF Taoiseach then

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also seems pretty clear that there aren't going to be any constituencies with 3 TDs from the same party, which hasn't happened for at least 50 years (although to be fair, the only example from the last Dáil is three Independents in Tipperary and SF could have got three in some places if they'd run a full slate.)

[cp]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

Well, except for a grand coalition of all of the big three, but I somehow doubt that's in anybody's best interest.

Doesn't seem like there's a natural coalition anywhere, really. SF+others would be so disparate I doubt it would last a year. What Labour/Greens/SD could extract for their support might be palatable for a while, but it'll be unsustainable in the long term.

[YL]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

Well, except for a grand coalition of all of the big three, but I somehow doubt that's in anybody's best interest.

Doesn't seem like there's a natural coalition anywhere, really. SF+others would be so disparate I doubt it would last a year. What Labour/Greens/SD could extract for their support might be palatable for a while, but it'll be unsustainable in the long term.

Some of the Independents might be prepared to back a coalition of two of the big three.

My current guesses for the remaining constituencies give a tie between FF and SF for most seats, FWIW.

[brucejoel99]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

While it's certainly the dawn of a new era, I feel like these results will suit nobody. The only way to win is to not play. Personally, I think whomever enters government is likely to be ousted in the next few months & see their credibility tank. Then again, we could all be surprised & see dramatic changes suddenly happen.

[RodPresident]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

While it's certainly the dawn of a new era, I feel like these results will suit nobody. The only way to win is to not play. Personally, I think whomever enters government is likely to be ousted in the next few months & see their credibility tank. Then again, we could all be surprised & see dramatic changes suddenly happen.

Let's see St Patrick's Geringonça in move. FF+SF propped by Labour, SD and Independents.

[urutzizu]

FF getting transfers at a hilariously bad rate. Even between their own candidates. They might actually end up tied with SF at 37 or even one less at 36 if this holds.

[palandio]

FF getting transfers at a hilariously bad rate. Even between their own candidates. They might actually end up tied with SF at 37 or even one less at 36 if this holds.

SF internal transfers on the other hand are phenomenal (in the few cases where they actually ran two candidates). This would moot the SF strategy of "not running too many candidates" even more.

[YL]

Remaining constituencies:

Cavan-Monaghan (5) 2 SF and 1 FG already elected.  I think the most likely outcome is that FF get the other two; no-one else really has enough votes.

Dublin Bay North (5) 1 SF and 1 FG already elected.  Labour, FF and the Social Democrats look good for the other three.

Dublin South-West (5) 1 SF, 1 Solidarity, 1 FG already elected.  FF are probably close enough to the quota even with their poor transfer performance, and the Greens are favourites for the last seat.

Laois-Offaly (5) 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG already elected.  Another FF and Nolan (Independent) are well ahead for the last two.

Longford-Westmeath (4) 1 SF already elected.  FF and FG should each get at least 1, but I think Moran (Ind) looks likely to take the last seat.

Sligo-Leitrim (4) 1 SF already elected.  Again, FF and FG should each get at least one, but Harkin (Ind) should get the other seat.

Wicklow (5) 1 SF already elected.  Social Democrats and at least 1 FG look very strong.  FF and Greens some way short of quota but hard to see the second FG beating them.

That would give the remaining 19 seats as
FF 8 (37 overall)
FG 3 (35 overall)
SD 2 (6 overall)
Green 2 (12 overall)
Lab 1 (6 overall)
Independents 3 (20 overall, plus 1 Independent 4 Change)

SF are definitely on 37, so tie here we come.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

RIP PAT "THE COPE" GALLAGHER, FREEDOM NAME AND NICKNAME

[YL]

I got Longford-Westmeath wrong: FF beat Moran to the last seat.  So FF now look likely to finish on 38, one ahead of SF.  Dublin South West has also finished.

Wicklow looks close between Green and FG for the last seat.  Assuming the other four stay as suggested above that gives
FF 38
SF 37
FG 35 or 36
Green 11 or 12
Lab 6
SD 6
Solidarity-PBP 5
Aontú 1
Ind 4 Change 1
Independents 19

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is it still 7 TDs needed to form a group? Presumably more likely that Labour and the SDs team up with a friendly indie than that they work together?

[YL]

Is it still 7 TDs needed to form a group? Presumably more likely that Labour and the SDs team up with a friendly indie than that they work together?

I think it's now 5 -- I saw someone saying Solidarity/PBP had enough.

In Wicklow, Matthews (Green) has overtaken Doyle (FG) again.  It isn't over yet, as Jennifer Whitmore (SD) has a hefty surplus which could in theory put Doyle back ahead again.  (It seems unlikely that it will, though.)

[bigic]

What about the SF surplus in Wicklow? Or it has already been distributed?

[YL]

What about the SF surplus in Wicklow? Or it has already been distributed?

That was distributed early on.  A surplus is always distributed if there's the possibility it could help the last placed candidate overtake someone, so a large surplus like that usually gets distributed immediately.