🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[ingemann]

The one actually interesting thing about this election is the big SSW improvement. Was it more mobilising Danish-speakers, soaking up floating leftish voters, or a little of both?

I think it's important to get that while we see SSW as a Danish minority party it's more than that. It also represents the Frisian minority, it's also a regional party, but more important than that it's also a mildly center-left ideological party which represents the Nordic model in general and Danish model specific. While Denmark has different reputation around the world, from Sanders "socialist" dream society to anti-immigrant and border closing nationalism, it's also a model in Germany of green energy, digitalized governance, a more streamlined bureaucracy, and a more consensus-based form of governance.

[Continential]

Oh, the irony! The most neoliberal user of Atlas, a dyed-in-the-wool apologist for Manchester capitalism and rampant globalism, chooses the absurdly utopian, socialist Greens over the materialistic, economic-liberal Free Democrats...
Nevertheless, I still assume that her fake love for the Greens is rather performative than it is material. 😏

lol

[Astatine]

CDU and Greens will go into formal coalition negotiations in Schleswig-Holstein, shunning out the FDP from government.

[President Johnson]

CDU and Greens will go into formal coalition negotiations in Schleswig-Holstein, shunning out the FDP from government.

I guess this is actually what most voters in that state prefer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well played by the Greens since they sucessfully got rid of the FDP in the end. Could have gone either way I suppose but the Greens apparently banked on the electorate's (as well as Daniel Günther's) sympathies for Black-Green.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Almost twelve years after his assumption of office, Hessian Governor Volker Bouffier (CDU, 70), currently Germany's longest-serving governor (or, in order to please PUTP: minister-president) and Trump doppelgänger, is going to step down today. Landtag President Boris Rhein is set to become his successor despite not being Bouffier's "first choice". Rhein needs, however, every single vote of the Christian Democratic and Green Landtag members. Literally! Totaled up, CDU and Greens, who form the state government, command the majority in the Hessian Landtag by one single vote. (69/137)
Sorry for my non-understandable prose!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Schleswig-Holstein Governor Daniel Günther's reelection and the swearing-in of his black-green government is scheduled for tomorrow.

Two personnel matters have been making headlines so far:

Furniture retailer and independent politician Claus Ruhe Madsen ist set to become SH's new Economy Minister. That nomination is quite astonishing as he doesn't even live in Schleswig-Holstein. In fact, he's the mayor of Rostock, the most populous city of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and seat of the best MMA gym in the whole of Germany.  🤗 🥊 🤼🏼‍♂️
Even more astonishing: The Dane doesn't even have German citizenship. 🇩🇰 I'm not sure if there has ever been a cabinet member in SH, or any other state, or in the federal government that wasn't a German citizen. However, it's not a new thing to select a politician from another state; Andreas Bovenschulte, for instance, the governor (officially: President of the Bremen Senate) of the Bundesland Bremen (and, ex officio, the mayor of the City of Bremen, plus Private Paula doppelgänger), had been mayor of the Lower Saxon city of Weyhe prior to his election to the Bremen Senate (= executive branch of Bremen's administration).

The designation of another new minister has been causing quite a stir among the Greens: Werner Schwarz, who has been the chair of the anti-Green SH farmers' association since 2008, the very powerful lobby organization for Scheswig-Holstein's extremely conservative farmers, which supports and promotes conventional agriculture¹⁾ - that type of intensive farming the Greens have been striving against for decades.
The decision to nominate Schwarz for that office is also painful for the Green at that as it means a loss of a cabinet post for them that they have hold for ten years, six years of them occupied by Chancellor-and-Governor-of-hearts Robert Habeck.

(The term "conventional agriculture" seems to have different meanings in English and German. Alas, English Wikipedia doesn't provide a translation for that type of agriculture. Maybe somebody could help me find the proper technical term.)

Another new cabinet member that is making headlines, both in good and bad regard, is former Landtag Vize President Aminata Tourétte, who is set to become Minister for Gedöns. On the one hand she is going to become Germany's fist black minister, with Malian roots, (very good thing), on the other hand she used to be the chairflinta* of the Antifa chapter Kiel and she is known to be a very fanatical SJW with an indoctrinated political creed (very bad thing).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh, before I forget, another black-green government has been sworn in today:

Governor Hendrik Wüst was reelected by the NRW state parliament this afternoon. He received 106 out of 181 votes; his black-green coalition comprises 115 members of parliament; 14 MPs didn't cast a ballot; 4 members of his own government camp denied him their votes.

In his inaugural speech he emphasized the important moral imperative of climate protection in order to warrant "open spaces" for future generations.

Here's a picture of the old and new Governor:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

As expected, Governor Daniel Günther was re-elected by the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag with an overwhelming majority yesterday.
66 of the 69 members of parliament were present; Günther received 47 out of 66 votes; his black-green coalition comprise 48 members of parliament. Since one of the three missing members was a Christian Democrat, it is safe to assume that Günther's entire government camp therefore unanimously backs him.

The highlight swearing-in ceremony was Günther's inability to properly take the oath of office. When the pseudo-Christian tried to recite the sacred part of the oath, he was just having the stammers. What a revealing Freudian slip... 😏

With the recent re-elections of the governors Hendrik Wüst and Daniel Günther, five different political parties hold the governorships:

SPD: 8 | CDU: 5 | CSU: 1 | Grüne: 1 | Linke: 1



The next regular state election is scheduled for October 9, 2022, and will be held in Lower Saxony, where Social Democratic Governor Stephan Weil runs a red-black government. Weil is expected to easily win his re-election, as his SPD has been ahead in each poll since March 2021. Here's the most recent poll for the SPD state Landtag election from just yesterday:

SPD: 30% | CDU: 26% | Grüne: 22% | AfD: 7% | FDP: 6% | Linke: 3%

It seems reasonable to assume that the formation of government might be quite funny and awkward, as the last one-vote-majority red-green coalition had been brought down by a single Green sell-out, which led to snap elections shortly prior to the scheduled election date.
The AfD's strength in the polls is quite astonishing. I was absolutely not sure if that party was about to get pushed out of the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag - which they eventually did -, but I could have sworn that they were clearly going to get kicked out of the Lower Saxon Landtag. That's because I at times forget that the AfD has replaced the Linke as the party of blue-collar workers; plus it is often disregarded in the German media that economic migrants from the Maghreb and the Middle East still don't know how to behave, primarily in cities such as Salzgitter, Wolfsburg or Göttingen.

It cannot be ruled out, however, that the Berlin House of Representatives may be dissolved, either by the parliament itself (following the decision of an electoral committee) or on the order of the Berlin Constitutional Court. If that's the case, the new elections will probably coincide with the federal snap elections in six federal constituencies, all of which surprisingly "happen" to be located in Berlin, too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

On Sunday, October 9, the most boring Landtag election of the election cycle will take place in the most boring German Land: Lower Saxony. The German media have barely covered its election campaigns.

Currently, Lower Saxony is governed by a grand coalition under Social Democrat Stephan Weil, who is expected to win re-election. Almost exclusively nationwide issues (energy crisis, inflation, Ukrainian support, debt limit) are going to determine the election outcome.

The latest and last poll:





A direct-vote percentage in the amount of 55 is quite okay, but rather mediocre in comparison with other incumbent governors who were seeking re-election.

Sureness about vote decision:



The most astonishing figure is definitely the high percentage for the AfD; Lower Saxony actually is, or rather, used to be the state most hostile towards that party, especially owing to its age pattern. Perhaps it's due to the energy crisis and the inflation resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian War; maybe it's because of the campaign goodies that the AfD has been distributing among the people...




Here are the 2017 state election results:







Stephan Weil (SPD), Minister President of Lower Saxony since Februar 19, 2013; initially under a red-green coalition with a mere one-vote majority in the Lower Saxon Landtag, which had to be dissolved thanks to a Green traitor. Since November 22, 2017, Weil has been the head of a grand coalition.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Okay, the election of the second-largest state by area and fourth-most populous German state is literally starting in a minute, and its news coverage is almost non-existing, thus making this election as boring as the state itself... 🥱😴

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

I would be very interested in the Green and AfD vote shares relative to pre-election polls.  This will get a sense of the view of the voters on the current energy crisis triggered by the aftershocks of the Russia-Ukraine war.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Just some facts about the election:

• Polls close at 18.00 CET, we will get projections based upon exit polls almost immediately afterwards
• Extrapolations based upon actual votes counted will likely start coming in only after 18.30 CET
• A provisional results will likely come only later into the night
• 86 constituencies are up for grabs
• A total of 23 parties, 14 with a state list, are running for election
• results page here: https://wahlen.statistik.niedersachsen.de/Vision/map.html
• You can find the Niedersachsen Wahl-O-Mat here: https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/niedersachsen2022/app/main_app.html

I got CDU - SPD, and personally I think I would prefer a continuation of GroKo over SPD-Green given how the Greens are determined to shut down the nuclear power plant in Niedersachsen:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Also, the Cottbus mayoral election run-off is today. Will be interesting to see how that goes. The SPD candidate is favored, but the margin with AfD could be what matters.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Exit poll projection is out:





Comfortable red-black majority, narrow red-green majority

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Exit polls (ARD / Infratest dimap):

SPD: 33.5% (-3.4) 50 seats ↓

CDU: 27.5% (-6.1) 41 seats ↓

Grüne: 14.0% (+5.3) 20 seats ↑

AfD: 11.5% (+5.3) 17 seats ↑

FDP: 5.0% (-2.5) 7 seats ↓

Linke: 2.5% (-2.1) 0 seats ↓


estimated turnout 60.0% (compared to 63.1% five years ago) ↓

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Die Linke bleeds support for the 9th consecutive election:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Die Linke bleeds support for the 11th 9th consecutive election:

Unlike the AfD, which has eventually broken their spell, ironically in their weakest state:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[President Johnson]

So the polls were basically spot on. While not a landslide, still a respectable result for the SPD. I don't know why the media tried to make this a horserace after survey after survey showed CDU trailing and Weil with a substantial lead over Althusmann in head-to-head matchups, clearing 50%.

Will be interesting to see whether the FDP now seeks even more to distance themselves from SPD and Greens within the federal government. As of now, however, I don't think they're left with much of an option other than to continue and just be glad the next federal election won't take place for another three years.

[DavidB.]

Haven't been following this - what is seen as the reason the CDU are losing more than the SPD?

[President Johnson]

Haven't been following this - what is seen as the reason the CDU are losing more than the SPD?

I guess Althusmann is not a very strong candidate, and the CDU for some reasons lost major "competence questions", especially on internal safety and the economy.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Haven't been following this - what is seen as the reason the CDU are losing more than the SPD?

I guess Althusmann is not a very strong candidate, and the CDU for some reasons lost major "competence questions", especially on internal safety and the economy.

This, plus the ongoing discussion about the lifetime extension of Emsland NPS may have played a role.