Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile alleged transcript from some of the Russian patrol boats outside of Snake Island from last week

Looks like the Russian Navy is lucky to have only lost (2) instead of (4) if this is correct considering the TB-2 stalking them...

I bet the remote controller of that drone got some serious high fives and free shots after work from his colleagues...

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524126494137757698?s=20&t=d-jzvXhzQq6y...

[NOVA Green]

More info from unusual (?) ship movements in and out of Sevastopol today from oldest to newest...

Still don't believe we have confirmation on the identity of the ship(s)...


https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1524033661611425792?s=20&t=d-jzvXhzQq6yJRr3...

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1524044270604275714?s=20&t=d-jzvXhzQq6yJRr3...

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1524069750200061954?s=20&t=d-jzvXhzQq6yJRr3...

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1524109788048764929?s=20&t=d-jzvXhzQq6yJRr3...

[Mehmentum]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

Occupying a Russian town or two for a morale/propaganda boost.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DoctorPurdy/status/1524173619907239936?s=20&t=dlgIYIvr3f...

[The Mikado]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

Unwise because the Ukrainians would be giving up all sorts of advantages (shorter supply lines, friendly populace, familiar territory) and putting forces they can't afford to lose in significant danger if they counterattack all the way into Russia. I tend to doubt that propaganda or PR reasons are too important to the decision not to vs simple practical ones that it'd be a really bad idea.

[jaichind]

Tass: Russian-Occupied Ukraine Region to Ask to Join Russia

While the argument for this is stronger given most of these territories are Russian-speaking and there is an ethnic-based argument for these territories joining Russia this story reminds me a lot of 1944-1945 stories of various territories (mostly Bessarabia, Baltic states, and Western Ukraine) "voting" to join the USSR after the Red Army entered those territories.  Most of them already "voted" to join USSR in 1939 and 1941 respectively but they "voted" again in 1944-1945 just to make sure.

[Woody]

Ukraine war: Russian-occupied Kherson will ask Putin to annex the region

https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/11/live-ukrainians-make-gains-in-east-hold-on-at-mariupol-mill

No plans for supposed "Kherson's people's republic" nor any referendum.. they will ask directly to be annexed to the Russian Federation.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Tass: Russian-Occupied Ukraine Region to Ask to Join Russia

While the argument for this is stronger given most of these territories are Russian-speaking and there is an ethnic-based argument for these territories joining Russia this story reminds me a lot of 1944-1945 stories of various territories (mostly Bessarabia, Baltic states, and Western Ukraine) "voting" to join the USSR after the Red Army entered those territories.  Most of them already "voted" to join USSR in 1939 and 1941 respectively but they "voted" again in 1944-1945 just to make sure.

It really isn’t.

Lots of Ukrainians, and most Ukrainians of minority communities, use Russian as a first language because Russian was enforced in media and education up until the fall of the USSR, that doesn’t make them Russians.
As of 2001 (can’t get a more recent census), ethnic Ukrainians made up an absolute majority of the Donbass, with Russians as the largest but not only minority. The Luhansk and Donetsk guys are fringe nutjobs that took over on the backs of out of uniform Russian troops with the explicit goal of joining a, their words, revived Russian Empire.

The alleged nationality question in Ukraine, like virtually everywhere else, is just a smoke screen the Russians use to justify intervention in a post-Soviet Republic. There just aren’t masses of oppressed Russians yearning for the motherland’s bosom in Ukraine or really anywhere.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/11/energy/ukraine-russia-gas-suspension/index.html

"Ukraine halts some Russian gas flows to Europe"

It seems Ukraine took my advice and did their own do-it-yourself sanctions on gas exports.  Of course, this means Ukraine loses transit fees, Russia loses money and Europe will enter into an energy squeeze.

Alternatively, Russia might just route all their gas via Sudzha which would in theory make this a non-event.  I am not sure if this is operationally feasible.

[jaichind]

https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/05/10/eu-proposal-russian-oil-greek/

"Proposal to ban EU-tankers transporting Russian oil halted by Greek shipowners"

Another front in the virtual signal vs money battle in Europe.  Will be fun to see how this plays out.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1524351169166024707

Notable for a few reason

--Very impressive view of world class turret toss
--Was captured by Chinese media imbedded with Russians east of Maripol. 
--Actually ran on Chinese media

So, Chinese media showed a Russian tank being blown up in broad daylight supposedly well behind the front lines.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1524351169166024707

Notable for a few reason

--Very impressive view of world class turret toss
--Was captured by Chinese media imbedded with Russians east of Maripol. 
--Actually ran on Chinese media

So, Chinese media showed a Russian tank being blown up in broad daylight supposedly well behind the front lines.

I'm glad to see the Russian space program is doing well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

[DINGO Joe]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1524399801617592322

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

Occupying a Russian town or two for a morale/propaganda boost.

There's no reason for the Ukrainians to do anything symbolic.  However, if there is a target on the Russian side that cuts off the supply chain they should hit it.  Russia is very dependent on their artillery and the shells are big and heavy and thus they're very reliant on rail to move it forward.  They should do anything to cut their rail supply lines.

[Torie]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

[Omega21]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524457376803344384
Zelensky is not looking to give Putin an off ramp here

[Torie]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

1. OK, 27, whatever. Anyway, should be 26, with the 27th member Ukraine.

2. You mean a unanimous vote of other than the country that it is proposed be stripped of voting rights?

3. Orban is going to hell to share a cell with Putin with but one twin bed, so they will either have to sleep together or take turns. My dog will be continuously barking at them via a zoom ink, so sleep will not be an option anyway.

[Omega21]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

1. OK, 27, whatever. Anyway, should be 26, with the 27th member Ukraine.

2. You mean a unanimous vote of other than the country that it is proposed be stripped of voting rights?

3. Orban is going to hell to share a cell with Putin with but one twin bed, so they will either have to sleep together or take turns. My dog will be continuously barking at them via a zoom ink, so sleep will not be an option anyway.

Exactly, but it should be fairly hard since Poland and Hungary usually have each other's backs when the EU is after them.

[Torie]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

1. OK, 27, whatever. Anyway, should be 26, with the 27th member Ukraine.

2. You mean a unanimous vote of other than the country that it is proposed be stripped of voting rights?

3. Orban is going to hell to share a cell with Putin with but one twin bed, so they will either have to sleep together or take turns. My dog will be continuously barking at them via a zoom ink, so sleep will not be an option anyway.

Exactly, but it should be fairly hard since Poland and Hungary usually have each other's backs when the EU is after them.

Thanks. I would doubt Poland has Hungary's back on this issue.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524457376803344384
Zelensky is not looking to give Putin an off ramp here

So this includes Crimea? Based.

I certainly hope so there's a way Ukraine gets it back and Donbas as well. There should be no compromises any longer with a thug like Putin and the West should use all tools available below a direct military confrontation with NATO to destroy his regime.

[lfromnj]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

1. OK, 27, whatever. Anyway, should be 26, with the 27th member Ukraine.

2. You mean a unanimous vote of other than the country that it is proposed be stripped of voting rights?

3. Orban is going to hell to share a cell with Putin with but one twin bed, so they will either have to sleep together or take turns. My dog will be continuously barking at them via a zoom ink, so sleep will not be an option anyway.

Exactly, but it should be fairly hard since Poland and Hungary usually have each other's backs when the EU is after them.

Thanks. I would doubt Poland has Hungary's back on this issue.

They don't, but its more of a scratch my back situation.  Funnily Ukraine joining the EU would solve all of Poland's problems. Now you can finally get another socially conservative state in the EU that would be anti Russian so Poland doesn't have to work with Hungary anymore.

[Torie]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

1. 39 members of the EU?

2. There is none, only an ability to strip a member of voting rights (requires unanimous vote)

3. Hungary is not the only one blocking. Slovakia is blocking it as well, but making Orban the sole evil villain obviously fits nicely into the mainstream narrative.

Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria still resisting EU ban on Russian oil

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/hungary-slovakia-czech-republic-and-bulgaria-still-resisting-eu-ban-on-russian-oil

1. OK, 27, whatever. Anyway, should be 26, with the 27th member Ukraine.

2. You mean a unanimous vote of other than the country that it is proposed be stripped of voting rights?

3. Orban is going to hell to share a cell with Putin with but one twin bed, so they will either have to sleep together or take turns. My dog will be continuously barking at them via a zoom ink, so sleep will not be an option anyway.

Exactly, but it should be fairly hard since Poland and Hungary usually have each other's backs when the EU is after them.

Thanks. I would doubt Poland has Hungary's back on this issue.

They don't, but its more of a scratch my back situation.  Funnily Ukraine joining the EU would solve all of Poland's problems. Now you can finally get another socially conservative state in the EU that would be anti Russian so Poland doesn't have to work with Hungary anymore.

Wheels within wheels. Thanks.

[NOVA Green]

It looks like Western sanctions might be starting to have an impact some Russian military production.

Russia is having a harder time manufacturing military equipment and other goods because of U.S.-led sanctions blocking the country from importing computer chips, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Senate hearing Wednesday.

Two Russian tank manufacturers have had to idle production, according to Raimondo, whose department oversees the export controls enacted by the United States and its allies after Russia’s invasion began.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-OISXR7UYUFFIZBB4STXELYDU44