ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

Independent HK/Taiwan Province media The News Lens analysis of the 2020 race based on scenarios and how Deep Blue, Light Blue, Independent Light Green, Deep Green might vote by key age groups of  20-40 vs 40-60

KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai


KMT Han vs Guo vs Ko vs DPP Tsai



Their conclusion is that Han narrowly wins in a KMT Han vs DPP Tsai as well as a KMT Han vs Guo vs Ko vs DPP Tsai race and wins with some margin in a KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai  while Tsai wins narrowly in a KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai  race.



The basic idea is that Han is relatively stronger in the 40-60 age group which carries over among independent voters. Tsai has some appeal with Light Blue youth voters.  If Ko is in the race by himself then his ability to eat into Light Green and youth independent voters will doom Tsai.  If Guo is the third party candidate he eats into the youth vote across the board but critically eat into the older Light Blue voter base which helps Tsai.  Overall the fact that turnout with 40-60 age groups is more likely to be higher than the 20-40 age ground gives Han the edge across the board.

I think this analysis does not take into account of possible tactical voting which underestimates Tsai in a  KMT Han vs Ko vs DPP Tsai  race as well as underestimates Han in a  KMT Han vs Guo vs DPP Tsai race.

Again, the DPP path to victory is still the same. Ramp up youth turnout by focusing on a liberal-progressive agenda as well as focusing on the PRC-HK issue painting the CCP as an anti-progressive force and threat to the democratic order on Taiwan Province. 

[jaichind]

It is confirmed that the pro-Chen Right Independence DPP splinter 一邊一國行動黨(One Side One Country Party) or OSOCP has been formed.  Again not sure what is the point of yet another pro-Chen DPP Right Independence splinter FA has been formed.

Also former DPP county migrate of Tainan County 蘇煥智(Su Huan-chih) who ran in last year's Tainan City mayor race as a DPP rebel also formed his own party 台灣維新黨 which I for now called Taiwan  Restoration Party of TRP.   The word "維新" is an ancient Chinese political phrase for reform and it has used by Japan for its 1868 Meiji Restoration which is refereed to as "明治维新".  JRP in Japan which was formed in 2012 is is called 日本維新の会 or Japan Innovation Party but was called Japan Restoration Party in 2012 when it was first formed.    Since Su's outfit is clearly modeled after the Japanese JRP one way would to be call his outfit TRP.  Anyway.   Yet another DPP splinter has been formed.

[jaichind]

Radical Taiwan Independence NGO Taiwan New Constitution Foundation came out with their poll which has Tsai with a massive lead.  Even if one, like me, think in a 2 way race Tsai could have a slight edge, the lead is not massive.  This poll can mostly be discounted but their party support result is interesting.

First, 2 way

DPP Tsai  51.0
KMT Han  31.2



3 way

DPP Tsai  41.9
KMT Han 25.7
Ko          22.6

So even this poll has Ko taking more support from Tsai than Han


Party support which at least tries to poll all these newly created parties.  The pro-Independence side seems very crowded.  Mostly will not hurt Tsai but will hit DPP in legislative races.  And that is on top of TPP perhaps also hitting DPP in district seats.

DPP     30.5
KMT    27.2
TPP     15.5   (Ko's new outfit)
NPP       4.7  (de facto Tsai/DPP ally these days as most anti-Tsai factions drift away)
PFP       2.3   (old KMT rebel Soong's outfit, will be gone after Soong finally retires)
OSOCP  1.5  (yet another pro-Chen Right Independence splinter)
FA         1.3   (yet another pro-Chen Right Independence splinter)
GP        1.0   (Green party, mostly pro-Tsai)
TSP       0.7  (Radical Left Independence)
NP         0.7  (Radical Right Unification)
MKT      0.1  (KMT splinter, does not make sense as MKT already merged into CPA)
FTP       0.1   (Radical Right independence)  

[jaichind]

It seems Ko's strategy is the following:

With Tsai's recovery in the polls an independent run by Ko in 2020 most likely will not result in a Ko victory since Han's floor is pretty high and Tsai polling high enough that she will be a strong second which would block Tsai->Ko tactical voting.

So, Ko now will focus on 2024.  But for that to take place he needs to be politically relevant until 2024.  While Tsai could end up winning re-election, at this stage DPP is for sure not going to win a legislative majority in 2020.  The KMT could but that is not a sure thing.  So Ko forms TPP to make a mark on the PR section.  If TPP can win something like 15% of the PR vote then TPP can win 5-6 PR seats which could make TPP kingmaker and make Ko politically relevant in in 2020-2024 if the KMT fail to win a legislative majority which is less likely if TPP runs strongly in the PR slate. 

But for TPP to do well in the PR slate, someone must run for President at the top of the ticket to drive support to TPP.  For Ko it seems what he wants is for Guo to run as an independent and back a Ko led TPP in the legislative elections.  Guo's wealth would also help fund TPP efforts.  Of course the problem is if Ko concluded that he is unlikely to win in 2020 then Guo can make the same calculation. So if Guo chooses not to run then Ko will run for Prez mostly not to win (although anything can happen) but to push up the vote for TPP.

In many ways Ko forming TPP early is signal to get Guo to join forces with him and if Guo turns it down then Ko still have time to launch his own campaign. 

[jaichind]

Latest Green Party (pro-Tsai) poll (where do they get the money for all these polls ? I suspect most of  the money are from Tsai campaign).  I would read this mostly as an DPP internal poll leak.  Biased but relevant.  

2-way
DPP Tsai    44.5
KMT Han    37.3


3-way

DPP Tsai    34.6
KMT Han    29.4
Guo-Ko      28.7



DPP Tsai    35.4
KMT Han    30.8
Guo-Ko      25.9


PR vote

KMT   36.6
DPP   24.9
TPP    12.5
NPP     8.0 (this is surprising high, I suspect most of this will flow back to DPP)
TSP     2.2 (Radical Left Independence)
GP      2.1
PFP     1.8


Party support (change from poll earlier in the week)

KMT    34.5 (+0.5)
DPP     26.4 (+1.6)
TPP     10.7 (+1.6)
NPP       6.9 (+1.8 )
GP        1.9 (-1.4)
TSP       1.8 (-1.0)
PFP       1.7 (+0.8 )

No big change.  Mostly some shifting of support within the pro-Independence camp

[jaichind]

Latest xfutures odds on winner of 2020 Prez election

Tsai  50
Han  43
Ko     7

Ko's chances going down since it seems chances of him running is going down.  With Ko not running Tsai chances goes up relative to Han.  Mostly make sense to me.

[jaichind]

On the the KMT side of splinters. 悟覺妙天禪師(Chan Master Wujue Miaotian) an 85 year old pro-Blue Zen Buddhist sect leader has created the moderate pro-unification 國會政黨聯盟(Congress Party Alliance) CPA.  KMT splinter MKT has merged itself into it.   CPA most likely will have a very small impact on the KMT on the PR vote but will be a challenge for the KMT as it will split the KMT vote in Keelung City and  Hsinchu County district races as local KMT rebels have joined MKT and now are part of CPA.

[jaichind]

Pro-Blue (mostly pro-Guo but now have shifted to a pro-Han position) TVBS poll (diff from Mid July TVBS poll)

2-way
KMT Han  48(--)
DPP Tsai   45(+1)


3-way (Guo runs but endorsed by Ko)
KMT Han 37
DPP Tasi  32(+2)
Guo        26(-1)  


Party support
NPP as expected gets hit by TPP as the anti-Tsai faction of NPP goes over to TPP

KMT  28(-3)
DPP  22(+1)
TPP    8
NPP    4(-6)



3-way breakout by age
                Total            20-29       30-39     40-49       50-59         60+
KMT Han     37(--)        17(--)      25(+6)    42(+6)     46(-11)     45(--)
DPP Tsai      32(+2)      55(-10)    32(-4)     21(-3)      30(+13)    34(+6)
Guo            26(-1)       37(+10)   41(+1)    34(-4)      22(-2)       10(-3)

Tsai gains ground mostly in the older traditional light Blue and Light Green voters from Han but loses ground to Han and Guo in the youth vote.  Basically a reversion to the mean.

Overall a good poll for Han.  The July poll was just after Han's primary victory so his numbers were going to be inflated.  But the same poll a month later still have him having the same support.  Still to be ahead 1-on-1 by 3 in a TVBS poll means that a 1-on-1 race is most likely tossup for Han.  Tsai should be worried by the 3 way race. Even with Guo entering into the race she loses more than Han does to Guo despite Guo's fairly Blue background.  Shows that a good part of her support are made up of anti-Han voters are not committed to her.  The part of Han's support that went to Guo most likely will come back due to tactical voting as long a Han is in first or second place.

If I were Guo and saw this poll most likely I will not run.  Neither Han nor Tsai have hit their campaign in high gear yet.  Also Guo is well behind Han.  Guo's only chance in the general is that Han falls to third place and the old KMT base swings behind Guo.  This seems unlikely for now.

[jaichind]

Pro-Green Apple Daily poll has Tsai gaining ground and her winning a 3 way matchup with Ko in the fray.  Most likely has to do with recent news makes a Ko run less likely and pro-Tsai Ko voters going back to Tsai.

2-way
DPP Tsai     38.2
KMT Han    35.4


3-way with Ko
DPP Tsai     29.5
KMT Han    29.0
Ko             21.0


KMT does have edge in Legislative race

PR poll
KMT      33.6
DPP       20.9
TPP         8.0
NPP        7.2
PFP         1.2


Generic ballot for district races
KMT      33.4
DPP       21.6
NPP         3.1
TPP         1.9

[kelestian]

How ROC public and politicians react to the Hong Kong events?

[jaichind]

How ROC public and politicians react to the Hong Kong events?

The TVBS poll also polled this

Support/Opposition for HK protests
Support        57
Oppose         19
Do not care   11
Unaware       13

By age
                             20-29   30-39  40-49  50-59   60+
Support        57         75        70       61       56     38
Oppose         19          8        12       24        25     23
Do not care   11          9          9       10         9     14
Unaware       13          9          9         5       10     25

By Party ID                DPP         KMT       NPP     TPP     Nuetral     Other
                                (22%)     (28%)    (4%)    (8%)    (26%)     (11%)
Support        57           82          33         84        80         58          40
Oppose         19            6          39           6        14         16          13
Do not care   11            4          13           5         5          15          16
Unaware       13            8          15           5         1          12          31

This is why the Tsai camp needs this to be in the news to push up youth turnout which can only help Tsai/DPP.  The KMT is sort of trapped between supporting the some of the principles of the HK protesters but also saying that they are going to far in provoking the PRC.  It is the sort of the middle of the road position that will merely weaken KMT and strength the DPP in the upcoming election contest.  If Gay marriage is the edge issue for the DPP, the HK protests are the wedge issue for the KMT.

Note that TPP supporters which are moderate on the Mainland-Taiwan issue and most likely can be roughly mapped to "Two China" camp of being for Taiwan Province being part of China in the sense that ROC is China but separate from PRC and being open to some sort of deal with PRC in the future are also for the HK protests which should be a warning signal to the KMT that if this issue has salience the pro-Ko vote might go Tsai in Jan 2020.

The PRC is taking action against the Tsai regime claim that the DPP in part what is behind these protests.  While that is most likely not true, various pro-DPP NGOs are most likely working with the HK protest movement in part because of common interests and also in part a continued non-resolution of the crisis helps the DPP campaign. 

Frankly at this stage given the stage of economic development of Guangdong province the HK autonomy deal has mostly outlived its usefulness from the PRC regime's point of view.  The only reason why the PRC regime is trying to keep it going is that it will serve as an example to get ROC to sign up for another variation of such a deal.  I do not think it will work one way or another.  Knowing my pro-Independence relatives I would say the core issue here is the need for a large part of the Taiwan Province population to feel superior to their Mainland counterparts.  After decades of viewing the Mainland as a bunch of hillbillies the day is coming fast that the people in will become the equal to those on Taiwan Province.  That fear will not change regardless of if the autonomy of HK is working or not working.  In the end the decisive factor will be the overall national power of the PRC over the next few decades.   How much autonomy HK gets relative what was promised back in 1997 will play fairly little role on how the Mainland-Taiwan issue will be resolved.  It will be power and money that talks.

[jaichind]

Latest xfutures odds

2020 Prez election winner
Tsai   47
Han   42
Ko      6
Guo    5 (Guo market is not up yet so this is implied rate)

2020 Legislative seats (113 in all)
KMT   56
DPP    44
NPP     1
OTH   10 (TPP and various independents and minor parties)

KMT on the verge of majority status and would need various pro-KMT micro parties and/or TPP.  If OTH is at 10 then TPP is most likely 8-9 as pro-KMT NPB will most likely win a seat.  TPP at 8-9 seems a bit high as TPP most likely will not win a district seat and 8-9 out of 34 PR seats would implie  something like 22%-24% of the PR vote which frankly I find hard to believe at this stage.

[jaichind]

Looks like NPP is headed oblivion.  Out of the 3 district NPP MPs, 2 which are pro-DPP has quit the party and will run as independents with DPP support.  The third MP and ex-chairperson of NPP and de facto leader of the anti-DPP faction within NPP 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) looks like will not run since with a DPP candidate in the fray the KMT candidate is sure to win in his district.  The NPP chairperson has resigned with one of the NPP PR MPs have been removed for corruption.  The NPP will become a shell of itself and will either become a de facto puppet party of DPP or  黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang)  and his anti-DPP faction will take it over.   One thing we can be for sure now.  The number of NPP MPs after the 2020 legislative elections will be zero as neither path would most likely yield a PR vote share of 5% to get PR seats.

[jaichind]

Guo withdraws from KMT.  It is clear that now he will run as an Independent with support of Ko.  It is not clear what KMT ex-Speaker of the Legislature Wang who is also in theory part of this Guo-Ko-Wang alliance will be doing. It seems he will not accept being Guo's running mate so we will see.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll done before Guo leaves KMT shows Tsai ahead of Han in a 1-on-1 race but Han in the lead in a 3 way DPP Tsai vs KMT Han vs Guo battle




Breakdown by age interesting

1-on-1
               Total     20-29  30-39  40-49  50-59   60+
DPP Tsai     49         77       62      45       35       41
KMT Han     42        19       35      49        57      43

3 way
               Total     20-29  30-39  40-49  50-59   60+
DPP Tsai     32         50       37      26       25       30
KMT Han     34        14       22      38        48      39
Guo            25        31       38      31        21      14

It seems Guo is appealing to youth and middle age urban middle class voters many of which are former Light Blue but now independent and somewhat anti-DPP anti-Tsai but despise Han's rural populist  subaltern image.  It is sort of like in a Trump vs Warren race where  Kasich comes in to run as a 3rd party but despite  Kasich's GOP background takes more middle class suburban anti-Trump voters from Warren and actually cuts into Warren's margins vs Trump.

Party ID of this poll is

KMT  29
DPP   21
TPP     6
NPP     5

I am surprised NPP is this high which makes me think that this TVBS sample might be a bit too youth heavy.  Again now it really comes down to youth vs older voter turnout.  Tsai has to hope this HK crisis continues to be in the news versus falling out of the new cycle.

[jaichind]

This whole election is turning into bizzaro world.

The whole point of this the KMT Draft Han movement was based on the assumption that
a) 1-on-1 the KMT will crush Tsai
b) If Ko gets into the race Tsai is so weak that Ko will defeat the KMT
c) Only Han can defeat Ko in a 3 way race.

Now that the Draft Han movement worked we get
a) Tsai is ahead of Han in a 1-on-1 race
b) If the KMT ran another candidate like Chu or Guo the KMT will most likely be ahead of Tsai 1-on-1
c) Ko will almost not run defeating the whole point of drafting Han
d) Han might get rescued by Guo getting into the race and cutting into the ant-Han vote.

All assumptions of early 2019 have been turned upside down.

[jaichind]

Guo drafting his letter to the KMT indicating that he is leaving the party




This breaks the trends of the Pan-Blue camp being united when in opposition (2004 2008) and being split when in power (1996 2000 2012 2016)

Ex DPP Prez 陳水扁(Chen) was one of the KMT's most deadly electoral foes.  Chen ran 4 campaigns against a split Pan-Blue camp sometimes winning sometimes losing.  A history would be

1985 台南縣(Tainan County) magistrate race
KMT Li                35.71% (KMT Tainan Ocean Faction)
Proto-DPP Chen   32.37%
KMT Hu              27.43% (KMT Tainan Mountain Faction)
IND Tsai               2.06% (anti-KMT)

The KMT Tainan Ocean Faction and Tainan Mountain Faction were deadly rivals locally and both factions refuse to support someone else from the other faction.  The KMT had no choice but to nominate both and hope for the best since if they went with one side the other will back Chen and the KMT was certain to lose.  As it is the greater KMT bloc was big enough for Chen to be defeated.

1994 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor race
DPP Chen          43.67%
NP Chao            30.17% (KMT splinter)   
KMT Huang        25.89%
IND Ji                 0.28% (KMT rebel)

Chao was from the radical pro-unification NP which provoked some moderate KMT tactical voting for Chen even as the core KMT base was split between Chao and Huang.

1998 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor race
KMT Ma              51.13%   
DPP Chen           45.91%
NP Wang              2.97%   

Ma who also later became ROC KMT Prez Deep Blue but also appealed to moderates.  The NP vote collapsed and consolidated behind Ma defeating Chen.

2000 ROC Prez Race
DPP Chen            39.30%
IND Soong          36.84% (KMT rebel)
KMT Lien             23.10%
IND Shu              0.63% (DPP rebel)
NP Li                   0.13%

KMT Lien represented the KMT local faction vote while Soong represented the Deep Blue vote.  In the end the KMT base was split with a bias toward Soong but was not enough to stop a Chen victory.

The KMT will have to decide which model it want to adopt now that Guo will run separately. I can try the 1985 model where the KMT does not try to destroy Guo but push Guo to eat into the Tsai vote while the KMT focus pushing up turnout for the Han base.  The KMT could also try the 1998 model where it tries to marginalize Guo to the point where all Guo vote will be squeezed and hope that tactical l voting will get Han over the line. 

It seems that given the high floor but low ceiling nature of the Han vote the 1985 model is a better bet for the KMT. 

The DPP will clearly try the 1994 and 2000 model by partially marginalize the moderate Pan-Blue candidate (Guo) and then make it a race between the DPP and the radical pan-Blue candidate (Han.)   Main risk here is that the radical pan-Blue candidate is actually the official KMT candidate (Han) and the DPP strategy could produce a result where urban independents stay put and vote Guo while pro-Blue Guo voters in the end tactically vote for Han. 

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds

DPP Tsai 55
KMT Han 36
Guo            8
Ko              1

Sounds about right. 

[jaichind]

Total shock. Guo announces he will not run in 2020.  What in the hell is going on?  Wonder what will Ko do now. 

[jaichind]

Another minor shock.  Ex-DPP Vice Prez 呂秀蓮(Annette Lu) will run in 2020 with the backing of the pro-Chen Right Independence FA.  Lu left the DPP back in 2018 but for sentimental reasons the DPP is pretending she did not leave the DPP.


It might be useful to go over the rules to get on the ROC Prez ballot which has been in place since 2008:  Each of the parties that won PR seats in the previous election can nominate a candidate for President in the next election.  That would be in 2020 DPP KMT TPP PFP.  If someone want to run as an independent they have to get around 260K validated signatures and pay around $500K deposit.

The basic idea is that Ko and Guo are a) have access to a bunch of cash and resources to pull off getting on the ballot via the signature route or if need so just run on the PFP party ballot since PFP are psudo allies of Ko and Guo by association.   So now that Guo will not run and the Ko-Guo-Wang alliance wants to run a candidate they can go either the signature route or just make a deal with PFP.

For Lu to run that is a different story.  I doubt FA has the resources to put up $500K AND go an get all these signatures for Lu  especially when Lu is not popular anyway.  It seems the whole point of Lu running is that she is a Chen proxy candidate to add pressure on Tsai.  It is pretty much Chen saying to Tsai : "I am going to run my candidate to split the Pan-Green vote.  Let make a deal, you agree to pardon me after you re-election in 2020 and in return I will get Lu to stand down."   For the very reason why any sort of Lu dropping out will be seen in this light the Tsai camp cannot make such a deal or she will lose the Centrist vote in 2020.

[jaichind]

The Guo maneuver does not make any sense.  Him quitting KMT few days ago clearly was to prepare for a Third Party run.  He must have seen internal polls showing he will most likely be third AND his attempts to get various KMT kingpins to back him last few days have failed. 

Guo not running Ko in a bind.  Ko's plan is to hitch TPP on the Guo campaign and put getting the Ko-Guo voting bloc to vote TPP PR to get 4-6 PR seats.  With the DPP not able to win a majority and a KMT majority not certain Ko would want to be king maker post 2020 as the head of TPP.  Now without Guo running he is stuck.  Ko actually have been shifting TPP toward being a light Blue (Ko used to be Deep Green and then was pro-PRC for a while) outfit in anticipation of a TPP that is attached to the Guo campaign.  Now that is in shambles and I am not sure if Ko will have much credibility to shift TPP back to a Light Green position.

Ko can now either get Wang to run which is unlikely and Wang will do poorly as Wang is good a grassroots organizing but have low on mass appeal.  Bedsides in anticipation of a possible Guo-Wang ticket with Ko support the KMT have mostly captured the various Wang local organizations as Han has appeal to the KMT local factions that Wang is popular with. 

Or Ko can try to run himself.  But that might go badly and Ko will be embarrassed and humiliated into a weak 3rd place.   

[jaichind]

It seems that Guo has been trolling Ko.  If Guo was not going to run he should have told Ko earlier.  9/17 is the last day for someone to file to file to run as an independent and then have a time period to collect the 260K signatures.  Now Ko will have to decided in 18 hours if he wants to run as an independent.  If he cannot figure it out in time he will have to go the running on the PFP line route.  Of course PFP founder and President Soong will get his pound of flesh if Ko wants this route (like TPP-FPP alliance.)   

[jaichind]

So we will know EOD tomorrow how many candidates will file to run as an independent.    The deadline for a party to nominate a candidate is 11/22.  So we might not know if PFP or NPP will nominate a candidate.  PFP could end up nominating Ko if Ko does not go the signature route.   The pro-DPP faction of NPP has pretty much left NPP have de facto merged into DPP.  So the NPP is now the anti-DPP NPP so there is a chance that NPP will run a candidate   Anti-Tsai and former NPP leader 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) might run to stick it to Tsai.


There is even a chance of a Ko-NPP alliance where Ko runs on the NPP line.  NPP and Ko used to be close in the 2014-2016 period have have drifted apart with the pro-DPP faction of NPP being very hostile to Ko and the anti-DPP faction of NPP neutral to slightly negative on Ko starting in 2017.

[jaichind]

If it ends up a 2 way race of DPP Tsai vs KMT Han then Guo could decide the election.  If Guo endorses Han and campaigns for him or even become the shadow-PM candidate to be nominated by Han if he wins then Han has the upper hand.  If Guo stays neutral it seems Tsai should have the upper hand unless the Hong Kong riots completely disappear from the news and as an issue.

[jaichind]

It seems the reason why Guo decided not to run, according to rumors, is that Guo asked Ko to be his running mate last night and was turned down.