ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

KMT Chariman Wu resigns.

[jaichind]

To get ready for the next battle (the possible re-call of Han) Han promises to move urgently on development of Kaoshiung.

[Frodo]

Xi Jinping has only himself to blame for this election result.  Had he (through his local patsies) handled the protests in Hong Kong differently, and at least tried to demonstrate to Taiwan that its democracy (and the liberal institutions that underwrite it) would be safe from interference, the results would have been much different.  

[KaiserDave]

Xi Jinping has only himself to blame for this election result.  Had he (through his local patsies) handled the protests in Hong Kong differently, and at least tried to demonstrate to Taiwan that its democracy (and the liberal institutions that underwrite it) would be safe from interference, the results would have been much different.  

Even though that would never be possible. But yes, from a propaganda standpoint he failed.

[jaichind]

Final prez reault

DPP Tsai    57.1
KMT Han    38.6
PFP  Soong 4.3

[jaichind]

Xi Jinping has only himself to blame for this election result.  Had he (through his local patsies) handled the protests in Hong Kong differently, and at least tried to demonstrate to Taiwan that its democracy (and the liberal institutions that underwrite it) would be safe from interference, the results would have been much different.  

Well Xi has his own constituency to answer to.  Any move away from the assertion of a unified Chinese sovereignty will lead tobhia overthrow by a mass movement. Besides I do not think the PRC cares.  After 2014-2016 and the HK protests in 2019 the PRC has mostly written of any progress on the Taiwan Province front for at least a decade. Their main strategy remains how to muscle USA out of East Asia in a couple of decades and the Taiwan Province solves itself, most likely near the 2049 date Lee Kuan Yew predicted.

[Tender Branson]

Nice.

A big F**k You ! from the independent country Taiwan to the dictatorship in Beijing.

[Tintrlvr]

The DPP won a highland aborigine seat. Is that the first time they've done so? I think it might be.

Totally deserved defeat for the Beijing Appeasement Party.

[jaichind]

I did a prelim calculation of the district vote share

DPP plus allies   49.26%
DPP rebels          0.67%
KMT plus allies   41.50%
KMT rebels         1.48%
TPP plus allies    2.35%
NPP plus allies    1.16%
PFP                   0.44%
CPA                   0.45%
GP                    0.28%

Which comes out to

Pan-Green       51.4%
Pan-Blue         43.9%
TPP                  2.4%

the rest are an assembly of minor candidates and minor parties which are most split evenly between those of Pan-Blue or Pan-Green origins.

[jaichind]

The DPP won a highland aborigine seat. Is that the first time they've done so? I think it might be.

Totally deserved defeat for the Beijing Appeasement Party.

Yes, I was about to write that. It was a shock.  It was a small swing toward the DPP in the Mountain Aborigine section.  It was mostly poor vote allocation between the the 2 KMT candidates and the pro-KMT NBP candidate to sweep all 3 seats.   The DPP squeezed in by 1%

[jaichind]

Congrats to my family friend 范雲(Fan Yun) former Chairperson of SDP but now on the DPP PR list.  She was duly elected.  The Pan-Green section of my family are really excited.


Yun Fan
ScoutT7 [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Also congrats to family friend and GP founder 高成炎(Kao Cheng-yan) returned to run on the GP PR slate and all things equal GP over-performed expectation.    I might abhor his and his party's positions but a job well done.

[jaichind]

Every landslide has a blowback.  After 2016 that should have been 2020 where at least the DPP would have lost a lot of ground.  But the 2018 ROC local election KMT landslide was so unprecedented in a first time that in some way all the anger against the DPP was consumed leading to yet another landslide by a combination of a overconfident KMT in early 2019 plus the HK-PRC factor.

[jaichind]

Final PR vote

DPP(民主進步黨)                                                33.98%
KMT(中國國民黨)                                                33.36%
TPP(台灣民眾黨)                                                 11.22%
NPP(時代力量)                                                     7.75%
PFP(親民黨)                                                        3.66%
TSP (Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (台灣基進)          3.16% (economic Right radical independence)
GP(Green Party) (綠黨)                                       2.41% (Urban progressive pan-Green)
NP (New Party) (新黨)                                         1.04% (KMT radical unification splinter)
TPAP(Taiwan Action Party Alliance)(一邊一國行動黨)1.01% (pro-Chen Right radical independence)
SFP (Stabilizing Force Party)(安定力量)                  0.67% (Christian conservative Pan-Blue)
TSU(Taiwan Solidarity Union)(台灣團結聯盟)           0.36% (KMT pro-Independence splinter)
CPA (Congress Party Alliance)(國會政黨聯盟)          0.28% (KMT splinter)
UP (Unionist Party)(中華統一促進黨)                       0.23% (Right radical unification)
IU(Interfaith Union)(宗教聯盟)                              0.22% (pan-Green social conservative)
FA((Formosa Alliance)(喜樂島聯盟)                        0.21% (Social conservative radical independence)
LP (Labor Party)(勞動黨)                                      0.14% (radical Left unification)
UAA(United Action Alliance) (合一行動聯盟)            0.12% (Christian Right Unification)
TRP(Taiwan Renewal Party)(台灣維新)                   0.08% (Light Green DPP splinter)
SSFPP(台澎黨)                                                    0.08% (radical independence)

DPP      13
KMT     13
TPP        5
NPP       3

Pan-Green   49.3%
Pan-Blue     39.5%
TPP             11.2%

Amazing that despite the DPP Tsai landslide the KMT nearly matched the DPP on the PR vote.  Also this is pretty much the end of PFP.  With this clearly being Soong's last campaign and PFP not having any MPs the party will most likely fold or merge into TPP or decline into a micro-party.

TSP's trajectory from here would be very interesting as they have combination of extreme pro-independence but have right wing economic positions.   How they can grow without being viewed as DPP B's team or DPP vote slitter would be interesting.   

[urutzizu]

Interactive results Map that I liked: https://international.thenewslens.com/interactive/126882

Small Green Losses in Southern Taiwan made up by increases in the north. Most surprising for me was perhaps DPP Tsai increasing in Jinmen and Matsu. Those Islands were dependent on Mainland Tourism, which Regime has massively restricted. I visited in late 2018 (before the travel restrictions became even more strict last year) and remember Bars, Hotels, Tours very empty except for Taiwan proper and Western Tourists. The Economic punishment from the Mainland hit hardest there, and it backfired. Which is indicative of the general election results. Every time they try to frighten the Taiwanese into voting KMT (1996 Straits Missile tests; Zhu Rongji 2000, Tzuyu 2016; sanctions+HK 2020) it fails. Even Han was running from reunification and attacking Tsai for allegedly selling out to China. KMT might actually take this, and think that they have no electoral future with the young if they dont change, and drop any pretense of Reunification completely. China is on the precipice of losing Taiwan to the US.

I am not a fan of the whole "the central government is playing 4D chess" theory on Weibo and think that the current situation (both in regards to HK and Taiwan) is a legit giant f***-up. Not being able to implement Article 23 for HK and CSSTA for Taiwan was the point of no return and it has been downhills from there.

[jaichind]

For me the biggest surprise would be Hsinchu City(新竹市) where DPP Tsai gained 4% on top of an amazing 51% in 2016. I knew it will trend DPP but the absolute swing is just amazing.  It really shows the churn of the high educated shift from Pan-Greens to Pan-Blues.  Still just like HK this has to be seen in the context of how Hsinchu City(新竹市) tech industry was miles ahead of PRC back in early 2000s so PRC-ROC economic integration produced significant economic benefits for Hsinchu City(新竹市).  These days the PRC tech industry have caught up and is clearly a threat to Hsinchu City(新竹市) techs these days.  And KMT Han being "Trump" like add to this as well.

[jaichind]

I am not a fan of the whole "the central government is playing 4D chess" theory on Weibo and think that the current situation (both in regards to HK and Taiwan) is a legit giant f***-up. Not being able to implement Article 23 for HK and CSSTA for Taiwan was the point of no return and it has been downhills from there.

Of course it is a f- up.  But once the initial mistake is made the PRC  cannot back down or else Xi and gang will be out.  Trade wars with USA and some economic adversity will not remove the CCP, giving up the goal of a overarching unifying a grand Greater China (a goal I share which is why when I am on PRC I say "we are all Nationalists now") will lead to the fall of a CCP.  The the CCP now have to play a poor hand and play the long game.

[jaichind]

Also they way DPP Tsai ran this campaign also contains dangers for it.  The DPP rallying cry was literally "A vote for KMT Han is a vote for unification with PRC." 

OK.  But KMT Han did win 38.6% of the vote.  So if we just take the DPP word for it the support for unification with PRC stands at 38.6%.  So imagine if during the US revolutionary war, England was 90 miles away from the Colonies and much bigger physically with large amount of resources as well as population AND 38.6% of the Colonies are FOR staying united with England.  How do you think the war will go ?  It seems if DPP believes in their own propaganda they should quickly move to mollify the KMT Han vote unless they want 38.6% of the population to be ready made Quislings

[jaichind]

I have to do my township by township analysis but it is clear there was a swing toward DPP Tsai in urban areas and a swing away from DPP in rural areas although both are fairly small overall.

[jaichind]

Just amazing how right after the 2018 ROC local elections DPP Tsai was polling 20%+ behind her KMT opponents and turned it around by election day.  The only one parallel I can think of would actually be Lincoln after 1862 where after the 1862 midterms nobody seems to believe Lincoln will win re-election and instead he came back with a greater majority in 1864

[Tintrlvr]

Also they way DPP Tsai ran this campaign also contains dangers for it.  The DPP rallying cry was literally "A vote for KMT Han is a vote for unification with PRC."  

OK.  But KMT Han did win 38.6% of the vote.  So if we just take the DPP word for it the support for unification with PRC stands at 38.6%.  So imagine if during the US revolutionary war, England was 90 miles away from the Colonies and much bigger physically with large amount of resources as well as population AND 38.6% of the Colonies are FOR staying united with England.  How do you think the war will go ?  It seems if DPP believes in their own propaganda they should quickly move to mollify the KMT Han vote unless they want 38.6% of the population to be ready made Quislings

38.6% supporting unification through an electoral process does not mean 38.6% supporting unification in the context of a war or invasion.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Congrats to my family friend 范雲(Fan Yun) former Chairperson of SDP but now on the DPP PR list.  She was duly elected.  The Pan-Green section of my family are really excited.


Yun Fan
ScoutT7 [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Also congrats to family friend and GP founder 高成炎(Kao Cheng-yan) returned to run on the GP PR slate and all things equal GP over-performed expectation.    I might abhor his and his party's positions but a job well done.

What do you dislike about the Green Party's positions? I know very little about the party other than that it's a broadly center-left third party and is unaffiliated with both the DPP and the Pan-Green coalition. Are Taiwan's anti-nuclear policies more due to the Green Party or the DPP?

Although the party is sympathetic to Taiwan nationalism and shares a number of centre-left positions with the Pan-Green Coalition, the party emphasizes campaigning primarily on social and environmental issues. The party is not a member of, and should not be confused with, the Pan-Green Coalition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_Taiwan

[xelas81]

What do you dislike about the Green Party's positions? I know very little about the party other than that it's a broadly center-left third party and is unaffiliated with both the DPP and the Pan-Green coalition. Are Taiwan's anti-nuclear policies more due to the Green Party or the DPP?

Although the party is sympathetic to Taiwan nationalism and shares a number of centre-left positions with the Pan-Green Coalition, the party emphasizes campaigning primarily on social and environmental issues. The party is not a member of, and should not be confused with, the Pan-Green Coalition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_Taiwan

jaichind is libertarian who supports unification of China

[jaichind]

Congrats to my family friend 范雲(Fan Yun) former Chairperson of SDP but now on the DPP PR list.  She was duly elected.  The Pan-Green section of my family are really excited.


Yun Fan
ScoutT7 [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Also congrats to family friend and GP founder 高成炎(Kao Cheng-yan) returned to run on the GP PR slate and all things equal GP over-performed expectation.    I might abhor his and his party's positions but a job well done.

What do you dislike about the Green Party's positions? I know very little about the party other than that it's a broadly center-left third party and is unaffiliated with both the DPP and the Pan-Green coalition. Are Taiwan's anti-nuclear policies more due to the Green Party or the DPP?

Although the party is sympathetic to Taiwan nationalism and shares a number of centre-left positions with the Pan-Green Coalition, the party emphasizes campaigning primarily on social and environmental issues. The party is not a member of, and should not be confused with, the Pan-Green Coalition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_Taiwan

Well the Green Party is pro-independence which is a cause I totally reject.  Of course the nature of such Green Party pro-Independence has shifted around during the times when Professor Gao was in charge back in the 1990s versus recently that is one of their key planks although not the most important plank.   Does not mean I do not have tremendous respect for professor Gao as a family elder but also as someone who treated me and my positions with respect when we spoke.     

[jaichind]

Also they way DPP Tsai ran this campaign also contains dangers for it.  The DPP rallying cry was literally "A vote for KMT Han is a vote for unification with PRC."  

OK.  But KMT Han did win 38.6% of the vote.  So if we just take the DPP word for it the support for unification with PRC stands at 38.6%.  So imagine if during the US revolutionary war, England was 90 miles away from the Colonies and much bigger physically with large amount of resources as well as population AND 38.6% of the Colonies are FOR staying united with England.  How do you think the war will go ?  It seems if DPP believes in their own propaganda they should quickly move to mollify the KMT Han vote unless they want 38.6% of the population to be ready made Quislings

38.6% supporting unification through an electoral process does not mean 38.6% supporting unification in the context of a war or invasion.

Sure that that is an awfully high number of potentially collaborators especially when facing a massive resource gap.  Of course back to real serious discussion, if the PRC attacked unprovoked there will nowhere close to 38.6% that will give any aid for the PLA.  Of course if the Tsai or some future DPP regime makes any shift toward a legally separate identity and USA support melts away a PLA invasion will be a walkover with the pro-independence elites mostly taking the first flight to New Zealand or something like that.  This is why KMT MP have offered amendments in the past for referendums that will allow a vote for Independence and DPP MPs keeps on voting it down.  DPP turkeys are smart enough not to vote for Christmas.  So I agree my scenario is not realistic but neither is DPP scenario about reunification with PRC which even die-hard unificationist like me will prefer to take it slow but making binding deals with PRC ruling out PRC invasion in return for ROC ruling out Taiwan independence and we will see where we go from there.   

[jaichind]

It seems at the legislative level the old KMT local factional kingpins took a hit. 

In Taichung City(臺中市) 2nd which was pocket borough of the old KMT factional leader Yen saw his son lose re-election in one of the safest KMT seats losing to DPP backed TSP 51.15% to 48.85%

In Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) 2nd DPP Tsai key lieutenant Chen(陳明文) came close to losing and missed 50% by some distance.  Chen(陳明文) was the leader of the powerful pro-KMT Lin faction back in the 1980s and 1990s and took the entire Lin faction with him in early 2001 since he felt the KMT was biased in favor of his rival the pro-KMT Huang faction.  This defection turned Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) from a lean KMT county to the most pro-DPP county.  Chen(陳明文) when on to serve as county magistrate for two terms before being MP and a key backer of Tsai when she took over DPP in 2008.  This time the KMT ran a DPP rebel but provoked a KMT rebel who wanted to run for the KMT.  It ended up being

DPP                     46.14%
KMT backed Ind    41.20%
KMT rebel              8.47%

which was a shocking fall of support for  Chen(陳明文)  for what is consider the safest of DPP seats.  Had the KMT rebel not run there was some shot that  Chen(陳明文) would have lost despite the overall rout of the KMT.