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June 17, 2024, 09:38:47 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 09:37:56 AM 
Started by wbrocks67 - Last post by wbrocks67

Can a mod delete this? This has nothing to do with this thread

 2 
 on: Today at 09:37:52 AM 
Started by SloopJB3 - Last post by SloopJB3
If Trump is elected/reelected this November, who do you think he will nominate to serve in his Cabinet?

 3 
 on: Today at 09:37:38 AM 
Started by wbrocks67 - Last post by DaleCooper
A pollster reached out to me but I ignored it because I assume every number I don't recognize is a scammer.

 4 
 on: Today at 09:36:40 AM 
Started by Harry Hayfield - Last post by beesley
Sky News' description of the Reform manifesto:

Quote
The document contains five core pledges - and the first two focus heavily on immigration. Reform UK pledges to freeze "all non-essential immigration" which it claims will "boost wages, protect public services, end the housing crisis and cut crime";

Reform claims it would "stop the boats" in its first 100 days with a four-point plan that would involve leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with zero illegal immigrants being resettled in the UK, a new government department for immigration, and migrants crossing the channel in small boats being returned to France;

A raft of tax cuts are also promised, including raising the minimum threshold of income tax to £20,000 a year, abolishing stamp duty, and abolishing inheritance tax for all estates under £2m;
Reform plans to fund these tax cuts by raising £40bn from reducing the interest paid on Bank of England reserves, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said such a measure is "unlikely to raise even half" of that sum;

On health, Reform wants to create an "NHS voucher scheme" for private treatment if people can not get seen by a GP within three days and to hold a public inquiry into excess deaths and "vaccine harms" from the COVID vaccine;

Reform UK also vows to increase defence spending to 3% within six years and introduce a new dedicated department for veterans - before recruiting 30,000 people to the British Army;

The party also hopes to recruit 40,000 new police officers - and reduce main corporation tax to 20%;

Reform also outlines plans to abandon the Windsor Framework, and prepare for re-negotiations on the EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement;

The party pledges to support marriage through the tax system, planning to introduce a 25% tax allowance "as soon as finances allow";

There is also a plan to scrap HS2 in full - which Reform UK says will save £25bn, describing the high speed rail line as a "bloated vanity project";

Mr Farage's party also plans to undertake a reform of the House of Lords - which it would replace with a "smaller, more democratic second chamber";

Reform UK also aims to reject the "influence" of the World Health Organisation, and wave goodbye to "cancel culture" with a comprehensive Free Speech Bill;

Reform would also overhaul the BBC, and make St George's Day and St David's Day public holidays.

 5 
 on: Today at 09:36:08 AM 
Started by Sir Mohamed - Last post by Starpaul20
Based

 6 
 on: Today at 09:35:44 AM 
Started by jaichind - Last post by TodayJunior
Iowa was never going to be competitive this cycle, but good grief that’s terrible for Joe.

 7 
 on: Today at 09:35:35 AM 
Started by heatcharger - Last post by Ljube
Obama didn't embarrass Biden.
Biden embarrassed himself.
Every day another embarrassment.

 8 
 on: Today at 09:34:58 AM 
Started by jaichind - Last post by Spectator
Good thing that Iowa isn't correlated to Wisconsin and that Selzer polls never foreshadow unseen Democratic weakness in the Midwest.

It's not correlated though? Maybe 10-20 years ago, but not now, given that Wisconsin is still a swing state and receives a way different amount of attention than Iowa does these days. The same reason why Tony Evers winning by 3 was not correlated at all by Kim Reynolds nearly winning by 20.

The poll mostly just underscores how Republican the state has moved in general. Biden actually has a smidge more support from Democrats (89%) than Trump does Republicans (88%) in this poll! Trump leads by 10 among Independents though, which given the Republican party ID edge in the state translates into nearly double that margin statewide.

This isn't really surprising though; Biden won Independents in Iowa by 4% in 2020 and still lost the state by 8

I'm not gonna sit here and say "great poll for Biden!" but let's be clear, Iowa is long gone for Democrats and it's continued movement towards Republicans should not be surprising to anyone

They are correlated, just not perfectly correlated. Gubernatorial elections operate in their own universe, are typically pro-incumbent, and often disconnected from the national environment. Iowa is absolutely worse for Democrats, but they have had basically the same movement in every Presidential election for 30+ years, with the main aberration being the 2012 to 2016 swing, where Iowa swung 15 points and Wisconsin 7 points. They both swung 1 point left 2016 to 2020 and have quite similar demographics, although WI is clearly more favorable to D trends:

Iowa: 85% White, 31% College-educated
Wisconsin: 82% White, 33% College-educated

If Iowa were to be Trump +18, there is a near-zero chance that Wisconsin votes for Biden. This is an obvious conclusion, but it's verboten in some circles to concede that Biden is disfavored in a likely tipping-point state. The demographic differences would produce a roughly 1 point difference in trends and campaign investment/attention would be a few points at most. WI already received much, much more investment in 2020 and there was no difference in their voting behavior.

Iowa is unlikely to be Trump +18, so this kind of besides the point, but once the Iowa margins approaches Trump +13 WI becomes essentially impossible for Biden. At that point Biden is either doing poorly in Polk or Johnson Counties, where his performances in Madison/Milwaukee are weak, or he's getting absolutely blown out in IA rural areas, where he's lost enough ground in similar areas in WI to lose the state.

I think Biden could theoretically survive a Trump+12-13 Iowa result in Wisconsin. Use the Iowa and Wisconsin Senate races from 2022 as a proxy and that’s basically what happened. Both had incumbent Republican Senators running against flawed Democrats. Johnson almost definitely loses to a stronger Democrat.

 9 
 on: Today at 09:33:26 AM 
Started by wbrocks67 - Last post by MRS DONNA SHALALA
It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.
If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

...this article is literally about it showing up in polling though

 10 
 on: Today at 09:33:14 AM 
Started by jaichind - Last post by Sir Mohamed
The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

IA is more white and also doesn't have large metros like OH does. Both of these prevent Dems from the bottom falling out in OH unless voter coalitions drastically change. Imho, there's no way Biden falls below 41-42% in OH, while a clean 59-38% sweep in IA wouldn't surprise me the slightest bit. Even in a scenario that has Biden winning the election.

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