Politico: New Ipsos Shows the Real Fallout From the Trump Conviction

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/17/trouble-for-trump-in-a-new-poll-on-his-conviction-00163498

More of the same, but interesting that the main point is about Independents.

[GAinDC]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

[BlueSwan]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

[wbrocks67]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

It's very strange to me - especially after 2022's many mishaps - that people for whatever reason this cycle suddenly believe polling to be absolutely infallible and 100% correct, and if the polls don't pick up on it, it must not be true in the slightest.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

...this article is literally about it showing up in polling though

[BlueSwan]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

...this article is literally about it showing up in polling though

Crosstabs.

[DaleCooper]

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING . . .

Why would you make that assumption?

[Alben Barkley]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

The “major cope” is to think some poll which found more independents claimed they would be “less likely” to vote for Trump because he’s a convicted felon than those who said they would be “more likely” to is meaningful at all. First of all, saying you’re “less likely” to vote for someone when confronted with an objectively negative fact about them is an abstract hypothetical that does not mean you are actually not going to vote for them. Maybe you were 100% certain you were going to vote for Trump and are now only 99% certain, but that will be back up to 100% by election day or probably within the next hour. Maybe if the poll had asked about Hunter Biden’s conviction you also would say you’re less likely to vote for Joe rather than more likely, because why the hell would you say more likely to even if you don’t really care? It doesn’t really say anything about how you will actually vote at all. The H2H polls, however, do say more about that, and they clearly have not moved in Biden’s favor at all since the conviction. This thread is just more “major cope” from the forum’s Coper-in-Chief when his predicted major bump for Biden never materialized.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

The “major cope” is to think some poll which found more independents claimed they would be “less likely” to vote for Trump because he’s a convicted felon than those who said they would be “more likely” to is meaningful at all. First of all, saying you’re “less likely” to vote for someone when confronted with an objectively negative fact about them is an abstract hypothetical that does not mean you are actually not going to vote for them. Maybe you were 100% certain you were going to vote for Trump and are now only 99% certain, but that will be back up to 100% by election day or probably within the next hour. Maybe if the poll had asked about Hunter Biden’s conviction you also would say you’re less likely to vote for Joe rather than more likely, because why the hell would you say more likely to even if you don’t really care? It doesn’t really say anything about how you will actually vote at all. The H2H polls, however, do say more about that, and they clearly have not moved in Biden’s favor at all since the conviction. This thread is just more “major cope” from the forum’s Coper-in-Chief when his predicted major bump for Biden never materialized.

Because maybe, it won't show up in polling lol. I'm sure you will call me a hack but I really do believe the polls are underestimating Biden. If you seriously believe that being a convicted felon is not going to hurt someone running for public office, I really don't know what to tell you.

[Alben Barkley]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

It's very strange to me - especially after 2022's many mishaps - that people for whatever reason this cycle suddenly believe polling to be absolutely infallible and 100% correct, and if the polls don't pick up on it, it must not be true in the slightest.

2022 was the closest thing to a time polls have actually underestimated Democrats since uh… 2012? Maybe? And even then, not by nearly as much as people like you love to exaggerate. The polls themselves weren’t bad, and actually were pretty spot-on for the GCB. Which mind you was still won by Republicans and they did take back the House. There were a few specific races they were more off like the AZ gubernatorial race and NV senate race but still not by that much. What was more off was the conventional wisdom of certain pundits predicting a “red wave.” But even still many of the major and more credible forecasters were not as bullish on that as random idiots on cable news.

More important thing is Republicans have far more often been the ones underestimated by polls in recent years, ESPECIALLY when Trump is on the ballot, and ESPECIALLY in key states like Wisconsin. For what should be very obvious reasons, this is far more directly comparable and relevant to this year’s election than a midterm with neither Trump or Biden on the ballot.

[Alben Barkley]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

The “major cope” is to think some poll which found more independents claimed they would be “less likely” to vote for Trump because he’s a convicted felon than those who said they would be “more likely” to is meaningful at all. First of all, saying you’re “less likely” to vote for someone when confronted with an objectively negative fact about them is an abstract hypothetical that does not mean you are actually not going to vote for them. Maybe you were 100% certain you were going to vote for Trump and are now only 99% certain, but that will be back up to 100% by election day or probably within the next hour. Maybe if the poll had asked about Hunter Biden’s conviction you also would say you’re less likely to vote for Joe rather than more likely, because why the hell would you say more likely to even if you don’t really care? It doesn’t really say anything about how you will actually vote at all. The H2H polls, however, do say more about that, and they clearly have not moved in Biden’s favor at all since the conviction. This thread is just more “major cope” from the forum’s Coper-in-Chief when his predicted major bump for Biden never materialized.

Because maybe, it won't show up in polling lol. I'm sure you will call me a hack but I really do believe the polls are underestimating Biden. If you seriously believe that being a convicted felon is not going to hurt someone running for public office, I really don't know what to tell you.

I believe it because I lived through when the same convicted felon was caught on tape bragging about committing repeated sexual assaults and expressing the intention to commit more, and still won because emails or something. Apparently everyone else just forgot that, or maybe the average forum user is far younger than I thought, like 8 years old or less. If you don’t know by now that the normal rules don’t apply to Trump, I don’t know what to tell you.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

It's very strange to me - especially after 2022's many mishaps - that people for whatever reason this cycle suddenly believe polling to be absolutely infallible and 100% correct, and if the polls don't pick up on it, it must not be true in the slightest.

2022 was the closest thing to a time polls have actually underestimated Democrats since uh… 2012? Maybe? And even then, not by nearly as much as people like you love to exaggerate. The polls themselves weren’t bad, and actually were pretty spot-on for the GCB. Which mind you was still won by Republicans and they did take back the House. There were a few specific races they were more off like the AZ gubernatorial race and NV senate race but still not by that much. What was more off was the conventional wisdom of certain pundits predicting a “red wave.” But even still many of the major and more credible forecasters were not as bullish on that as random idiots on cable news.

More important thing is Republicans have far more often been the ones underestimated by polls in recent years, ESPECIALLY when Trump is on the ballot, and ESPECIALLY in key states like Wisconsin. For what should be very obvious reasons, this is far more directly comparable and relevant to this year’s election than a midterm with neither Trump or Biden on the ballot.

Oh the GCB was spot on. Whoop dee doodle do. Dude, the polls of the individual races were absolute garbage! MI Gov, WI Sen, WA Sen, NH Sen. The list is endless. And those "republican pollsters" did just fine in 2020 so that's not an excuse. Does that mean that it will happen in 2024, no, but it's just disingenuous to act like polls didn't overestimate democrats in 2022 significantly.

[UncleSam]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

There is no other strategy though. Rs need to convince people the system is rigged and the judicial process has been weaponized against them. There isn’t anything ‘better’.

100% agree that this will hurt Trump with swing voters, which is who he needs to win. Specifically, he needs people who disapprove of him but voted for him in 2016 to come back to him because they disapprove of Biden. Personally, I think most of those voters (who went for Biden overwhelmingly four years ago) will stay against him. The issue is with the EC, anything closer than Biden’s 4.5% win from 2020 could go to Trump. And I do think it’ll end up being about Biden +2 or so, which as we all know is hardly a safe margin.

[wbrocks67]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

It's very strange to me - especially after 2022's many mishaps - that people for whatever reason this cycle suddenly believe polling to be absolutely infallible and 100% correct, and if the polls don't pick up on it, it must not be true in the slightest.

2022 was the closest thing to a time polls have actually underestimated Democrats since uh… 2012? Maybe? And even then, not by nearly as much as people like you love to exaggerate. The polls themselves weren’t bad, and actually were pretty spot-on for the GCB. Which mind you was still won by Republicans and they did take back the House. There were a few specific races they were more off like the AZ gubernatorial race and NV senate race but still not by that much. What was more off was the conventional wisdom of certain pundits predicting a “red wave.” But even still many of the major and more credible forecasters were not as bullish on that as random idiots on cable news.

More important thing is Republicans have far more often been the ones underestimated by polls in recent years, ESPECIALLY when Trump is on the ballot, and ESPECIALLY in key states like Wisconsin. For what should be very obvious reasons, this is far more directly comparable and relevant to this year’s election than a midterm with neither Trump or Biden on the ballot.

Please take a look at the 538 averages for the races in 2022. The averages were universally off in nearly every swing race (besides OH oddly enough) and even outside of swing races (CO, WA, etc.)

Again, I'm not sure why there's this black/white mantra here where you either are a "poll denier" or you believe the polls 100%. It's very okay to say that polls could be wrong! But some of you are so obsessed with them being 100% right right now, it's weird

[PeteB]

After the convictions, Trump is a dead man walking.  Unless he does something to alleviate this, through the choice of a VP, by introducing believable policies, or in some other fashion, the lack of support with independents and moderates will be the proverbial nail in his coffin.  

I don't believe that the anti-Trump ads we are seeing now are anything like what we will start seeing in the next few months.  There won't be a person in America by election day who is not going to be exposed to claims that choosing Trump is tantamount to having a criminal in charge and that it will punish women, regarding the abortion issue.  

And while MAGA types are happy to fall for conspiracy theories that the justice system is rigged and we live in a banana republic, most independents will require some form of sanity from their candidate.  The polling is not showing a lot of this sentiment, because the people concerned about Trump are also dissatisfied with Biden.  But come election day, choosing between a "Criminal Dictator" and an "Old Guy", should be an easy decision.

And, while I did not plan it, I am happy to see that this is my 2000th post!

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's nice and all, but we really need to see these sentiments translate into support for Biden to matter. Maybe the debate, sentencing, and Democrats instilling the message of Trump's criminality could do it? Forgive me for not automatically expecting that though.

[axiomsofdominion]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

If Trump is really suffering with independents then THAT SHOULD SHOW UP IN THE POLLING and no, I don't mean in the crosstabs of a random poll. The fact is that the polls haven't moved in any way that is distinguishable from statistical noise as a result of the conviction. And this is certainly not "cope". I would love nothing more than for Joe Biden to absolutely annihilate Donald Trump.

But polling almost never moves in a statistically significant way? You'd need a minimum of a 5% shift to qualify for being statistically significant for most people.

Modern partisan politics is way too polarized for that.

[axiomsofdominion]

It's a major cope to assume that Trump's conviction won't ultimately hurt him with the voters he needs to win.

Everybody just focuses on MAGA diehards circling the wagons, but Trump needs more than just them to win, especially against a well-funded incumbent who beat him four years ago.

It's a huge albatross and the Republicans need a better strategy than just yelling "rigged" at everything.

The “major cope” is to think some poll which found more independents claimed they would be “less likely” to vote for Trump because he’s a convicted felon than those who said they would be “more likely” to is meaningful at all. First of all, saying you’re “less likely” to vote for someone when confronted with an objectively negative fact about them is an abstract hypothetical that does not mean you are actually not going to vote for them. Maybe you were 100% certain you were going to vote for Trump and are now only 99% certain, but that will be back up to 100% by election day or probably within the next hour. Maybe if the poll had asked about Hunter Biden’s conviction you also would say you’re less likely to vote for Joe rather than more likely, because why the hell would you say more likely to even if you don’t really care? It doesn’t really say anything about how you will actually vote at all. The H2H polls, however, do say more about that, and they clearly have not moved in Biden’s favor at all since the conviction. This thread is just more “major cope” from the forum’s Coper-in-Chief when his predicted major bump for Biden never materialized.

But the "Biden Bump" *did* materialize. It didn't put the race to be of course but only fools were thinking that it would. The race shifted ~2% towards Biden. The problem is that people are trying to analyze a handful of polls of which even fewer are serious polls 5 months before the election.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. People can find whatever message they want because the data is both sparse and ambiguous.

[SnowLabrador]

The conviction makes no difference in terms of public opinion, but it helps Trump by allowing him to raise the money and build a ground game.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The conviction makes no difference in terms of public opinion, but it helps Trump by allowing him to raise the money and build a ground game.

In fairness, Trump could publicly shart himself and find a way to fundraise off the gullible sheep who follow him.

[GAinDC]

After the convictions, Trump is a dead man walking.  Unless he does something to alleviate this, through the choice of a VP, by introducing believable policies, or in some other fashion, the lack of support with independents and moderates will be the proverbial nail in his coffin.  

I don't believe that the anti-Trump ads we are seeing now are anything like what we will start seeing in the next few months.  There won't be a person in America by election day who is not going to be exposed to claims that choosing Trump is tantamount to having a criminal in charge and that it will punish women, regarding the abortion issue.  

And while MAGA types are happy to fall for conspiracy theories that the justice system is rigged and we live in a banana republic, most independents will require some form of sanity from their candidate.  The polling is not showing a lot of this sentiment, because the people concerned about Trump are also dissatisfied with Biden.  But come election day, choosing between a "Criminal Dictator" and an "Old Guy", should be an easy decision.

And, while I did not plan it, I am happy to see that this is my 2000th post!

Congrats!! And it’s also a solid post

[wbrocks67]

Pertinent article given the shifts we've seen with Independents in post-conviction polling.

[SnowLabrador]

Pertinent article given the shifts we've seen with Independents in post-conviction polling.

If they're going to vote against Trump now, why aren't they just saying that?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pertinent article given the shifts we've seen with Independents in post-conviction polling.

If they're going to vote against Trump now, why aren't they just saying that?

The common wisdom is everything going on in the country/world is Biden's fault, so it is socially undesirable now to admit you are supporting him. Also, people do prefer Trump in some policies areas overwhelmingly but they may vote for Biden because they are disgusted with Trump's character

[axiomsofdominion]

What so many people fail to understand is that the people on this forum are, well, freaks. Normal people don't follow politics and certainly not polling and they are just not paying attention in June. Think about the voting rates in primaries vs the general election.

On top of that they have very unconsidered opinions and thoughts. Sometime in late September or early October they'll start tuning in and giving, somewhat, serious thought to the election. There's a lot of undecided voters in polls at this point, and there's a subset of voters who gave an answer but didn't put much into it and could change their minds.