UK Election 2010

[Filuwaúrdjan]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

Well, no, because if we're measuring recessions through quarterly growth then a recession is not declared based on one quarter of shrinking.

In reality the... er... um... 'slump' seems like a useful word... the slump is continuing here and everywhere else and will continue to do so for quite a while.

[afleitch]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

Well, no, because if we're measuring recessions through quarterly growth then a recession is not declared based on one quarter of shrinking.

In reality the... er... um... 'slump' seems like a useful word... the slump is continuing here and everywhere else and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Something MSM appear to have forgotten. Given that the 0.1% was on the back of Christmas sales growth was probably non existant, shopping spree aside. Now with VAT back up it will make for interesting reading.

The great thing is, from a Tory p.o.v is how sluggish our recovery is in comparison with other comparable nations.

[Beet]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

Well, no, because if we're measuring recessions through quarterly growth then a recession is not declared based on one quarter of shrinking.

In reality the... er... um... 'slump' seems like a useful word... the slump is continuing here and everywhere else and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Something MSM appear to have forgotten. Given that the 0.1% was on the back of Christmas sales growth was probably non existant, shopping spree aside. Now with VAT back up it will make for interesting reading.

The great thing is, from a Tory p.o.v is how sluggish our recovery is in comparison with other comparable nations.

You guys had more of a bubble compared to other nations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You guys had more of a bubble compared to other nations.

Housing and finance, yeah. The only people who I went to primary school with that still live in the area are living with their parents (mostly on farms). No one else can afford to buy and the area has sod all social housing.

On a less dark point, unemployment hasn't reached the sort of levels that looked likely a year ago. Probably a good thing that the pound has lost so much value...

[Verily]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

Well, no, because if we're measuring recessions through quarterly growth then a recession is not declared based on one quarter of shrinking.

In reality the... er... um... 'slump' seems like a useful word... the slump is continuing here and everywhere else and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Something MSM appear to have forgotten. Given that the 0.1% was on the back of Christmas sales growth was probably non existant, shopping spree aside. Now with VAT back up it will make for interesting reading.

The great thing is, from a Tory p.o.v is how sluggish our recovery is in comparison with other comparable nations.

Be careful what you wish for. Small policy changes such as those resulting from a change in government do not revive economies. If the Conservatives inherit a weak economy, they may regret it in four years when the economy is still in bad shape--won't be true worldwide, but could be true in Britain.

[You kip if you want to...]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

Well, no, because if we're measuring recessions through quarterly growth then a recession is not declared based on one quarter of shrinking.

In reality the... er... um... 'slump' seems like a useful word... the slump is continuing here and everywhere else and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Something MSM appear to have forgotten. Given that the 0.1% was on the back of Christmas sales growth was probably non existant, shopping spree aside. Now with VAT back up it will make for interesting reading.

The great thing is, from a Tory p.o.v is how sluggish our recovery is in comparison with other comparable nations.

Don't be suprised if Brown does call an election in March if it looks like the numbers will for for Q1.

[Franzl]

A hung parliament would actually be interesting.

[You kip if you want to...]

A hung parliament would actually be interesting.

Yeah. I'd like to think that the Tories would sway the Lib Dems with PR... but it's not happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A hung parliament would actually be interesting.

Oh, true. But very unstable, one way or 'tuther.

[k-onmmunist]

I actually hope there is a hung parliament.

[afleitch]

I actually hope there is a hung parliament.

The only scenario I would be happy with is the SNP holding the balance of power and pushing for major concessions in terms of deepening devolution. I would contend that the Tories are best placed to offer that.

[k-onmmunist]

I actually hope there is a hung parliament.

The only scenario I would be happy with is the SNP holding the balance of power and pushing for major concessions in terms of deepening devolution. I would contend that the Tories are best placed to offer that.

That's one of the few scenarios I'd be unhappy with.

[You kip if you want to...]

I actually hope there is a hung parliament.

The only scenario I would be happy with is the SNP holding the balance of power and pushing for major concessions in terms of deepening devolution. I would contend that the Tories are best placed to offer that.

That's one of the few scenarios I'd be unhappy with.

[afleitch]

Nice little swingometer map (at last)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swingometer-map

To change forecast, use the arrows next to the vote shares to move them up or down. Seems a little 'buggy'

EDIT: If you want to get shares rather than just swing you need to set Others first, then Lib Dems, then toggle Labour and the Tories

[KuntaKinte]

While playing around with the swingometer map that afleitch posted, I found out that there is not a single truly safe Labour seat in Kent. That sursprised me.
Are the old coalmining areas in Kent not as loyal to the Labour Party as their equivalents in Wales and the North? Or are they just to small and not populous enough to dominate a constituency?

IIRC the Kent coalfield  was actually one of the more "radical" NUM areas in the strike of 1984.

[Novelty]

I plugged in the following numbers

Con 40%
Lab 30%
LD 20%
Others 10%

and that showed the Tories get a majority of 0.  What would happen if the Tories get a majority of 0.  They would still form the government, but would they look for coalition partners?  Would the UUP survive to provide it a small minority?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

While playing around with the swingometer map that afleitch posted, I found out that there is not a single truly safe Labour seat in Kent. That sursprised me.
Are the old coalmining areas in Kent not as loyal to the Labour Party as their equivalents in Wales and the North? Or are they just to small and not populous enough to dominate a constituency?

IIRC the Kent coalfield  was actually one of the more "radical" NUM areas in the strike of 1984.

As far as I know the Kent coalfield is just a small part of the Dover constituency - if the Tory rural areas can outvote Dover, Deal and the ex-coalfield then they win.  All the other Kent Labour seats have *very* small majorities.

[minionofmidas]

While playing around with the swingometer map that afleitch posted, I found out that there is not a single truly safe Labour seat in Kent. That sursprised me.
Are the old coalmining areas in Kent not as loyal to the Labour Party as their equivalents in Wales and the North? Or are they just to small and not populous enough to dominate a constituency?

IIRC the Kent coalfield  was actually one of the more "radical" NUM areas in the strike of 1984.

As far as I know the Kent coalfield is just a small part of the Dover constituency - if the Tory rural areas can outvote Dover, Deal and the ex-coalfield then they win.  All the other Kent Labour seats have *very* small majorities.

Exactly: it's tiny.

I think Kent (not counting Kentish London, of course) was all-Tory as late as 1992.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While playing around with the swingometer map that afleitch posted, I found out that there is not a single truly safe Labour seat in Kent. That sursprised me.
Are the old coalmining areas in Kent not as loyal to the Labour Party as their equivalents in Wales and the North? Or are they just to small and not populous enough to dominate a constituency?

IIRC the Kent coalfield  was actually one of the more "radical" NUM areas in the strike of 1984.

The Kent coalfield was tiny. It is, however, very Labour; its core (Aylesham) is probably the Party's strongest ward in Kent/Surrey/Sussex. Your memory is correct, btw; on some votes down the years, the Kent coalfield was actually the most militant of all.

[KuntaKinte]

Thank you all for answering. I have to say this is one of the threads that actually learned me something.

[You kip if you want to...]

UKPollingReport's average now has the election in hung parliment territory, hasn't been there in a long while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More news on retirements... John McFall (the high profile Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee and the M.P for West Dunbartonshire) and Don Touhig (M.P for Islwyn). Considering what happened the last time AWS was imposed on a Monmouthshire Valleys constituency, I do hope that the NEC decides against that option...

McFall, of course, looks like a Mafia don so his retirement is quite tragic:

[You kip if you want to...]

I really, REALLY hope he doesn't.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7009745.ece

[k-onmmunist]

Blair and Brown were both megalomaniacs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of difficult to think of many PMs who you can't accuse of that...

I really, REALLY hope he doesn't.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7009745.ece

Sunday Paper Story. Ignoring that... even if he were to try to stay on... well, the game changes in opposition.