UK Election 2010

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm suprised that Plaid are stagnent compared to 2005.

Well, they are in government here. But you have to remember that polls in Wales have much more of a shot-in-the-dark aspect than in the rest of Britain (I could go into the reasons for this, but you might get bored. Putting things as simply as possible, what is true in Cardiff is not always true in Merthyr, and what is true in Merthyr is not always true in Caernarfon) and that YouGov have no record here. It is a little odd though - with the hilarious exception of 1999, Plaid have usually been the overestimated party in Welsh polling.

[You kip if you want to...]

Unsuprising:



That age gap is pretty telling to me...

[Hash]

I'd be interested in the teacher numbers for 2005, if they're available. I'm sure Labour won them in a landslide.

[k-onmmunist]

Heh, I remember all my teachers were left wing Labourites. Except my French one, who was a hardcore Chomskyite.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be interested in the teacher numbers for 2005, if they're available. I'm sure Labour won them in a landslide.

Eh, accurate figures for this sort of thing don't really exist. However...

Teaching has always been one of the more Labour inclined professions (this even before the gap between the voting habits of professionals in the private and public sector opened up in the '80s). There used to be some interesting voting differences within the profession (due to the way the education system used to be structured) but the last traces of that ended in the '80's. Though things varied from place to place once; in the '40s and '50s it was widely known that if you wanted to be a teacher in County Durham you had to be a Party member.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd be interested in the teacher numbers for 2005, if they're available. I'm sure Labour won them in a landslide.

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They're moving away from Labour at a faster rate than the nation it appears. I expect some swing back towards Labour in 2010-2015 (Whenever that election is) for some reason.

[Peter]

As a teacher, I'm surprised that the Conservative pledge to renege on the previously agreed 2.3% salary rise for the next academic year hasn't pushed more teachers away. Certainly the day after that announcement it was widely discussed in the staff room and there were previously Tory voters who were at least wavering.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a teacher, I'm surprised that the Conservative pledge to renege on the previously agreed 2.3% salary rise for the next academic year hasn't pushed more teachers away. Certainly the day after that announcement it was widely discussed in the staff room and there were previously Tory voters who were at least wavering.

Well it is a Mori poll.

[Phony Moderate]

The teachers poll is pretty unsuprising.

Most of my teachers generally lean towards the left. I've got the impression that my science teacher is Labour or possibly Green (he goes on a lot about protecting the environment), my headteacher is probably Labour, my former music teacher seems to have a very left wing viewpoint (he gets angry when someone makes a homphobic joke, for example). Other than that, the rest don't really give away their views.

It would be interesting to see what figures the Greens got. I would imagine it would be quite high.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, same case at my school basically. Most of my teachers are either Scouse or Welsh, to boot.

Well you do live in Birkenhead.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, same case at my school basically. Most of my teachers are either Scouse or Welsh, to boot.

Well you do live in Birkenhead.

Well yeah...

[StateBoiler]

The teachers poll is pretty unsuprising.

Most of my teachers generally lean towards the left. I've got the impression that my science teacher is Labour or possibly Green (he goes on a lot about protecting the environment), my headteacher is probably Labour, my former music teacher seems to have a very left wing viewpoint (he gets angry when someone makes a homphobic joke, for example). Other than that, the rest don't really give away their views.

It would be interesting to see what figures the Greens got. I would imagine it would be quite high.

I remember my U.S. history teacher in high school and we discussed politics a lot in there (the Clinton impeachment was going on at the same time and he let us watch the Clinton questioning in class, so I watched "live" the president ask the definition of the word "is"). I don't know if my history teacher was conservative, but he definitely wasn't liberal. I remember him telling us how he ceased his membership in the National Teacher Association/Union or whatever after they told him to vote for Walter Mondale in 1984.

[Phony Moderate]

So Bob Ainsworth also let slip today that the election will be held on May 6th.

[You kip if you want to...]

Stephen Hesford of Wirral West is standing down. The seat was a Labour win in 2005, but is notionally Tory. Ester McVee is the Tory candidate.

Ben Chapman and Stephen Hesford are now retiring from the 2 Wirral seats the Labour would have lost anyway.

[Bo]

Won't Cameron easily become the next PM?

[Verily]

Won't Cameron easily become the next PM?

Yes. There has been chatter that Labour might mount a comeback, but really this is just the media trying to sell a news story. A guaranteed Conservative victory is kind of boring and not very profitable (which actually makes me a little surprised that Murdoch jumped so early and not, say, three days before the election).

[k-onmmunist]

Won't Cameron easily become the next PM?

Certainly not easily.

Maybe not even at all.

[Phony Moderate]

Won't Cameron easily become the next PM?

The latest prediction by UKPollingReport is a Tory majority of 20, so probably not.

[You kip if you want to...]

Won't Cameron easily become the next PM?

The latest prediction by UKPollingReport is a Tory majority of 20, so probably not.

It'd actually be so much of a mega-fail on their part if there was a hung parliment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron will become PM this year unless something very strange happens between now and the election. Even if there's a hung parliament (still fairly unlikely, IMO), the government will almost certainly be Tory-led.

[hawkeye59]

I think Cameron will win.

[afleitch]

Cameron will become PM this year unless something very strange happens between now and the election. Even if there's a hung parliament (still fairly unlikely, IMO), the government will almost certainly be Tory-led.

Any situation that forces Cameron to run a minority government would be interesting. I believe Nick Clegg is 'grandstanding' and would form a coalition with the Tories fairly easily. He pretty much has to; if the Tories call a further election the Lib Dems are likely to be gut punched by the electorate.

One of the most interesting things about Cameron's tenure is the lack of defection to the Tories (we had buffoon leave...) There is a belief, and based on what I know it seems plausable that there are a small 'bank' of Lib Dem/Labour MP's who could defect to the Tories to secure a small majority should they fall short (most of the names I've heard are not standing down at the next GE)

I still hold to the idea that the Tories will win a majority of 20-50 and when they next go to the country (thanks to the economy even without Labour squabbles) may be able to increase that.

[minionofmidas]

Still holding out for a scenario where the Tories have a majority only if you discount MPs from Scotland.

[afleitch]

0.1% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back into recession again in Q1 anyone?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

When do growth figures for Q1 come out? Surely they'll have to have the election before then if it looks like negative growth will be back.