UK Election 2010

[Robespierre's Jaw]

It's probably going to be the earliest possible year for an election to be held in the U.K. And at the present time it's going to be fought out by Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Menzies Campbell. And many minor parties. I'm not exactly sure if Gordon Brown would be able to win in 2009 over Cameron. At this present time, I believe that Brown will be defeated an a new wave of Conservative rule will occur from 2009 onwards. What do you think will happen when the UK decides somewhere in the year of 2009.

[minionofmidas]

A conservative majority seems pretty unlikely actually, although a hung parliament, even a conservative lead, are certainly good possibilities.

[Harry Hayfield]

Ah, I was wondering when this might start up (considering the comments Mr. Brown made yesterday) and for once I am ahead of the game (both on the 2005 boundaries and the 2007 boundries). All of which poses the question though, which set of boundaries will the next election be contested on?

If it's the 2005 boundaries, then there are the benchmarks for the Conservatives:

Number of Conservative targets for overall majority: 126
Labour overall majority: Any swing to Lab -> 2.33% swing to Con
Labour hung parliament: 2.35% swing to Con -> 4.64% swing to Con
Conservative hung parliament: 4.66% swing to Con -> 6.32% swing to Con
Conservative overall majority: 6.34% swing to Con or greater

However, if we are working on the 2007 boundaries, those numbers change

Number of Conservative targets for overall majority: 116 (-10)
Labour overall majority: Any swing to Lab -> 1.86% swing to Con
Labour hung parliament: 1.89% swing to Con -> 4.22% swing to Con
Conservative hung parliament: 4.24% swing to Con -> 5.91% swing to Con
Conservative overall majority: 5.98% swing to Con or greater

The current poll average for June is: Con 36.5% Lab 34.8% Lib Dem 16.8% which is an average Con lead of 1.8%. This represents a 2.4% swing to Con and therefore produce the following results (according to UK Elect)

Election 2005 boundaries: Con 264 Lab 326 Lib Dem 21 Others 35 (Lab maj 6)
Election 2007 boundaries: Con 278 Lab 317 Lib Dem 20 Others 35 (Lab short of an overall majority by 9)

[minionofmidas]

Are you sure that the old boundaries might yet get used? Till when would parliament have to be dissolved for that?

[Hash]

Ah, I was wondering when this might start up (considering the comments Mr. Brown made yesterday) and for once I am ahead of the game (both on the 2005 boundaries and the 2007 boundries). All of which poses the question though, which set of boundaries will the next election be contested on?

What did Brown say?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you sure that the old boundaries might yet get used? Till when would parliament have to be dissolved for that?

The new boundaries, IIRC, become law (if that's the right way of putting it) this week.

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the Parliamentary Information Office, the order changing the constituencies will take place 14 days after being presented to the Privy Council. The order was presented to them on June 13th 2007.

According to the Ministry of Justice (who actually oversee the boundaries in law) it will formally come into law on Wednesday, June 27th 2007 (although the boundaries for the Ealing, Southall by-election will be fought on the 2005 boundaries).

[Peter]

The following is the case:

The Welsh boundary changes have been given legal effect so that they would operate for the Assembly elections in May.

The English and NI changes are yet to take effect. They do not become Law in the usual sense - boundary changes are actually controlled by Orders-in-Council which may only be formally promulgated by the Queen, though inevitably this means whatever the Secretary of State puts in front of her (used to be Constitutional Affairs, not sure what it'll be now). The Order-in-Council is approved by Parliament in advance, though I am not sure if this is a strict legal requirement.

[Harry Hayfield]

These are the seats that Labour can afford to lose and still have an overall majority in Parliament (Con in second place unless stated)

1) Gillingham and Rainham (0.03%)
2) Crawley (0.09%)
3) Rochdale (0.35%) Lib Dem
4) Harlow (0.58%)
5) Croydon Central (0.72%)
6) Oxford East (0.73%) Lib Dem
7) Portsmouth North (0.77%)
Battersea (0.81%)
9) Edinburgh South (0.94%) Lib Dem
10) Hove (1.00%)
11) Hampstead and Kilburn (1.14%) Lib Dem
12) Ochil and Perthshire South (1.47%) SNP
13) Islington South and Finsbury (1.56%) Lib Dem
14) Milton Keynes North (1.72%)
15) Arfon (1.82%) Plaid Cymru
16) Stroud (1.85%)
17) Dartford (1.90%)
18) Basildon South and Thurrock East (2.14%)
19) Ealing Central and Acton (2.16%)
20) City of Chester (2.20%)
21) Watford (2.33%) Lib Dem
22) Colne Valley (2.51%)
23) Cardiff North (2.53%)
24) Hastings and Rye (2.54%)

[afleitch]

Yes, new boundaries come into effect on Wednesday.

As for predictions, a hung parliament is likely on paper, but I think people will vote to ensure that doesn't happen, particularly if a hung parliament is the 'talk' of the election. Should there be a significant movement to the Conservatives in the polls, I expect a small Conservative majority even if on paper it shouldn't be enough to gain one. If there is not, even if the swing would, on paper deliver a hung parliament, I would expect Labour to hold onto it's majority. Of course once again there will be localised swings each way which will confound any predictions.

I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

[Harry Hayfield]

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then Labour still have an overall majority

1   Gillingham and Rainham
2   Crawley
3   York Outer (Lib Dem)
4   Romsey and Southampton North (Lib Dem)
5   Harlow
6   Cheltenham (Lib Dem)
7   Croydon Central
8   Portsmouth North
9   Battersea
10   Hove
11   Somerton and Frome (Lib Dem)
12   Eastleigh (Lib Dem)
13   Westmorland and Lonsdale (Lib Dem)
14   Milton Keynes North
15   Stroud
16   Dartford
17   South Basildon and East Thurrock
18   Ealing Central and Acton
19   City of Chester
20   Hereford and South Herefordshire (Lib Dem)
21   Colne Valley
22   Cardiff North
23   Hastings and Rye
24   Calder Valley
25   Stourbridge
26   Carshalton and Wallington (Lib Dem)
27   Milton Keynes South
28   Corby
29   Taunton Deane (Lib Dem)
30   Perth and North Perthshire (SNP)
31   Vale of Glamorgan
32   South Swindon
33   South Dorset

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then Labour will be the largest party in a hung Parliament

34   Northampton South
35   High Peak
36   Loughborough
37   Aberconwy
38   Watford
39   Birmingham, Edgbaston
40   Stafford
41   Angus (SNP)
42   Broxtowe
43   Chippenham (Lib Dem)
44   Burton
45   Brighton, Kemptown
46   Bury North
47   Redditch
48   Rugby  
49   Pendle
50   Wolverhampton South West
51   Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
52   South Ribble
53   South Derbyshire
54   Bristol North West
55   Dumfries and Galloway
56   Tamworth
57   Torbay (Lib Dem)
58   Cleethorpes
59   Sutton and Cheam (Lib Dem)
60   North Swindon
61   Westminster North
62   Worcester
63   North Cornwall (Lib Dem)
64   Harrow East
65   Richmond Park (Lib Dem)
66   Great Yarmouth
67   Cheadle (Lib Dem)
68   Eltham
69   Brigg and Goole
70   Portsmouth South (Lib Dem)
71   Bedford
72   Stevenage
73   Hendon
74   Chatham and Aylesford
75   Brentford and Isleworth
76   Bradford West
77   Rossendale and Darwen
78   Hammersmith

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then the Conservatives will be the largest party in a hung Parliament

79   Blackpool North and Cleveleys
80   Halifax
81   Lancaster and Fleetwood
82   Dewsbury
83   Dudley South
84   Northampton North
85   Edinburgh South
86   Warrington South
87   Truro and Falmouth (Lib Dem)
88   Wirral South
89   Southport (Lib Dem)
90   Lincoln
91   North West Leicestershire
92   Wyre Forest (KHHC, Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern)
93   Gedling
94   Halesowen and Rowley Regis
95   Nuneaton
96   Ochil and South Perthshire
97   Leeds North West (Lib Dem)
98   Brecon and Radnorshire (Lib Dem)
99   Camborne and Redruth (Lib Dem)
100   Warwick and Leamington
101   Dover
102   Keighley
103   Newton Abbot (Lib Dem)
104   North Devon (Lib Dem)
105   Poplar and Limehouse
106   Stirling
107   Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
108   Dudley North
109   Elmet and Rothwell
110   Reading West
111   Tynemouth
112   Morecambe and Lunesdale
113   Pudsey
114   South East Cornwall (Lib Dem)
115   Ipswich

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then the Conservatives have an overall majority

116   Bolton West (and look how the prime target for the Conservatives is, Ruth Kelly MP!!!)
117   Bolton North East
118   Waveney
119   Sefton Central
120   Tooting
121   St Austell and Newquay (Lib Dem)
122   Amber Valley
123   Barrow and Furness
124   Winchester (Lib Dem)
125   Gloucester
126   Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Lib Dem)
127   Thurrock
128   Argyll and Bute (Lib Dem)
129   Brighton, Pavilion
130   Mid Dorset and North Poole (Lib Dem)
131   Copeland
132   Hampstead and Kilburn
133   Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem)
134   Stockton South
135   Carlisle
136   Batley and Spen
137   Bath (Lib Dem)
138   Kingswood
139   Hyndburn
140   Weaver Vale (Conservative Majority of 50 if gained)

[Hash]

I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

Why? Does Menzies Campbell have something to do with it?

[afleitch]

I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

Why? Does Menzies Campbell have something to do with it?

Yes and no. There was movement against the Lib Dems in some of their 'old' seats in 2005 in an otherwise a good year for them. The Lib-Con marginals are not strong for them, unless they can get their vote out. Likewise I expect a good few pickups from Labour to swing back to Labour.

[Harry Hayfield]

Now, because the last election produced a three way battle, I've decided to do two Lib Dem swingometers (just like the BBC), the first is a Con vs Lib Dem swingometer. The seat listed at the end is the seat that the attacking part should gain on that swing

10% to Con: 21 seats (Hazel Grove)
9% to Con: 24 seats (Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine)
8% to Con: 30 seats (Colchester)
7% to Con: 31 seats (Bath)
6% to Con: 38 seats (Cornwall South East)
5% to Con: 44 seats (Southport)
4% to Con: 46 seats (Portsmouth South)
3% to Con: 52 seats (Chippenham)
2% to Con: 53 seats (Taunton Deane)
1% to Con: 56 seats (Westmorland and Lonsdale)
No swing: 62 seats
1% to Lib Dem: 70 seats (Eastbourne)
2% to Lib Dem: 73 seats (No seat)
3% to Lib Dem: 82 seats (Totnes)
4% to Lib Dem: 88 seats (Bournemouth West)
5% to Lib Dem: 93 seats (Chelmsford)
6% to Lib Dem: 103 seats (St. Albans)
7% to Lib Dem: 113 seats (Broadland)
8% to Lib Dem: 131 seats (Dumfriesshire)
9% to Lib Dem: 149 seats (Gainsborough)
10% to Lib Dem: 171 seats (Tewkesbury)

[Harry Hayfield]

As was demonstrated at Election 2005, there aren't that many Labour targets for the Lib Dems to aim at (certainly at the next election there are more than last time but not as many as the Lib Dems would like)

10% to Lib Dem: 171 seats (Bedford)
9% to Lib Dem: 149 seats (Streatham)
8% to Lib Dem: 131 seats (Birmingham, Hall Green)
7% to Lib Dem: 113 seats (Aberconwy)
6% to Lib Dem: 103 seats (Glasgow North)
5% to Lib Dem: 93 seats (Liverpool, Wavertree)
4% to Lib Dem: 88 seats (Norwich South)
3% to Lib Dem: 82 seats (Edinburgh North and Leith)
2% to Lib Dem: 73 seats (Aberdeen South)
1% to Lib Dem: 70 seats (Islington South and Finsbury)
No swing: 62 seats
1% to Lab: 61 seats (Manchester, Withington)
2% to Lab: 60 seats (Bristol West)
3% to Lab: 58 seats (Hornsey and Wood Green)
4% to Lab: 55 seats (Birmingham, Yardley)
5% to Lab: 52 seats (York Outer)
6% to Lab: 52 seats (No seat)
7% to Lab: 51 seats (Cambridge)
8% to Lab: 48 seats (Bermondsey and Old Southwark)
9% to Lab: 47 seats (Eastleigh)
10% to Lab: 46 seats (Portsmouth South)

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

Which makes us all winners in the end.

[Democratic Hawk]

I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

That seems unavoidable. As long as Labour was dominant and the Conservatives were victims of tactical voting, like in 1997 and 2001, there was always scope for Lib Dem gains at the expense of the Conservatives; however, 2005, reversed that and Lib Dem gains came at primarily Labour's expense, usually in constituencies with large student populations. That was to be expected

On the other hand, a resurgent Conservative Party, and there is no doubt it has been resurgent since Cameron became leader, can only bode ill for the Liberal Democrats

Furthermore, there are those voters who deserted Labour in 2005 because of a range of issues, some to the Conservatives, others to the Liberal Democrats. I don't see many Labour to Conservatives returning to Labour at the next election, many of these were likely to have been Conservative pre-1997, but it's plausible the others will return to Labour if they don't want a Conservative government. Much of the Lib Dem general election support is pretty soft, even if their local vote is strong in places.

In my own local election campaign, I encountered scores of voters who voted Lib Dem in local elections but Labour in a general election, which seemed to be quite common in many Lib Dem wards. There was also some movement from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives. It was a shame they didn't contest all wards . It's difficult to conceive the Conservatives performing as badly, even in Durham, as they did in 2005

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

And not just in your area either. There was a very nice graphic shown during the local election programme in 2004 (actually it was Newsnight) that demonstrates this point very well indeed (now let's see if there's a copy of it online anywhere)

Nope, there's not (darn the fact that I can't transfer DVD + RW recordings from my DVD player online). Anyway I shall have to describe the graphic instead.

Local Elections 2004: Projected National Vote Share
Con 38% Lib Dem 29% Lab 26% Others 7% = Con lead of 9% over Lib Dem
Change in Votes when a general and a local is held on the same
Lib Dem -8% Lab +4% Con +2% Others +2%
(This means that in a general election, the Lib Dems do 8% worse, Labour do 4% better, and the Conservatives and Others do 2% better)

Now since then we have had of course the 2005 local and general elections. I've found out what the national projected share was for those locals (and the change on the general) and so the new differentials are:

Con: -3% (3% worse in the general than local)
Lab: +10% (10% better in the general than local)
LDm: -6% (6% worse in the general than local)
Oth: -1% (1% worse in the general than local)

So applying that to the local elections this year, instead of Con 40% Lab 26% Lib Dem 26% Others 8% (which is what the BBC carped on about all night) what they should have said is: Con 37% Lab 36% Lib Dem 20% Others 7% (which when you look at it is not that much difference from the Locals 2006 adjusted projection (Con 36% Lab 36% Lib Dem 19% Others 9%)

[Keystone Phil]

So let's go with this rumor and assume that there will be an election in...let' say...May 2009. As of right now, what is likely? Labour majority? Hung Parliament?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So let's go with this rumor and assume that there will be an election in...let' say...May 2009. As of right now, what is likely? Labour majority? Hung Parliament?

Best not to assume too much about when the election will be. It's very unlikely to be this year (for several reasons), but beyond then, who knows? Westminster gossip tends to be largely wrong with a few correct bits floating around here and there.

As for the election result; well, a good guess at that won't be possible for quite a while. I would be surprised if the Tories didn't do better than 2005 (though how much better I don't know) and I would be surprised if the LibDems didn't do worse (though how much worse I don't know) but, as far as overall results go, beyond that much is uncertain. I'm not even sure if it'll be another low turnout election or not.

O/c, quite a bit about the next election can be guessed (such as the sort of seat most likely to swing towards the Tories and so on), but that's nay the same thing.

[Keystone Phil]

Best not to assume too much about when the election will be. It's very unlikely to be this year (for several reasons), but beyond then, who knows?

How likely is it that it will be next year, in your opinion?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Best not to assume too much about when the election will be. It's very unlikely to be this year (for several reasons), but beyond then, who knows?

How likely is it that it will be next year, in your opinion?

No idea

[Peter]

I'd pitch them as low presuming everything as is reasonably foreseeable - ultimately anything that Brown initiates now will need at least a year to bed in, and calling an election in the Summer is always out of the question because of the crazy things that turnout can do, which could potentially leave Autumn 2008, but I'd be more inclined to leave it until May 2009 by then.

[afleitch]

I'd much rather we had a referendum on the EU constitution this year or early next than a GE.

[Hash]

I'd much rather we had a referendum on the EU constitution this year or early next than a GE.

Although Sarkozy's (and now the EUs) mini-treaty will be ratified by parliaments