UK Election 2010

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Forgive my ignorance, but if the Conservatives end up just a few seats short of a majority, then what happens?  Is one allowed to form a minority government, as in Canada, or would there have to be a coalition?

They could form a minority government, yes. Most governments that lack a majority (even if they have one normally but don't on certain votes) can buy Unionist support, at least for a while. Coalitions would (probably) only be seriously considered if the largest party was a long way short of a majority. Of course, there's always the option of calling another election in the hope of getting a majority; which is very risky, though has worked in the past (but has never been tried in the age of intensive media coverage).

[Smid]

This latest poll is great news for the Tories because it may lead to some anti-Labour voters not willing to risk Brown getting back in. I think a poll showing Labour close to the Tories is more likely to increase the Tory vote.

Of course, there's no such thing as an anti-Tory....

Besides, i don't think the vast majority of voters look at polls.

Of course there's such a thing as an anti-Tory vote, but I think it is much less this election than the anti-Labour vote, and I also think it is also much less than it has been in the last couple of elections. I think that a poll at the last election showing the Tories within a few points of Labour would have been disasterous for the Conservatives as it would have unified the anti-Tory vote... this election there seems to be more anti-Labour sentiment, so therefore the position is reversed.

As for voters not looking at polls, this might be so, but they look at headlines which is where those polls are frequently repeated.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, this doesn't look good for the Tories.

[Harry Hayfield]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7345189/Conservative-Party-launches-iPhone-app.html

Okay, hands up then for who is going to download this one!

[minionofmidas]

If we do see another Labour prime minister, why does it have to be Gordon Brown? Why can't it be Jack Straw?

Or one of the Milibands?

Maybe. If Labour is going to run the country for another 4/5 years, then it ought to be someone other then Gordon.

Dennis Skinner.

I've said it before, but Michael Foot should be brought back as interim leader.

[Phony Moderate]

Rumour has it that tonight's monthly ComRes poll is going to show a 5-point lead for the Tories, down from seven points last month.

It will be interesting to see whether it's spun as good news for the Tories or Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rumour has it that tonight's monthly ComRes poll is going to show a 5-point lead for the Tories, down from seven points last month.

It will be interesting to see whether it's spun as good news for the Tories or Labour.

It'd be shoddy if it was spun as good for the Tories. But, if tonight's Yougov is better for the Tories, then that is good for them.

[k-onmmunist]

I think I'll call this now. Labour will win.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think I'll call this now. Labour will win.

The Tories' reaction would be rather priceless.

[k-onmmunist]

I think I'll call this now. Labour will win.

The Tories' reaction would be rather priceless.

I really do think it's going to happen. Labour will win a minority government, IMO.

[minionofmidas]

Yah, I can sort of see a reverse 1992. I'm not believing or predicting it or anything, but I can see it happening.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think I'll call this now. Labour will win.

The Tories' reaction would be rather priceless.

I really do think it's going to happen. Labour will win a minority government, IMO.

I still can't see them doing the impossible. I wouldn't want them to really, look what happened to the Tories in 1997 after beating the odds in 1992.

[You kip if you want to...]

Tonight's polls.

Both still have it as a hung parliment (on UNS).

[Хahar 🤔]

Should Brown wait it out a little longer?

[k-onmmunist]

Should Brown wait it out a little longer?

Nah. If I were him, I'd call it now.

[afleitch]

Well the Pound has taken a slide due to the narrowing polls That's not good for anyone.

A 5-6 point lead for the Tories is not as good as it should be. I think I'm allowed to indulge in a wee 'it's not fair' moment given then a 3pt lead in 2005 was enough to gift Labour a majority of 66. However looking beyond the UNS straightjacket a 6 point national lead coupled with a larger swing in the marginals should be enough to see the Tories through to a majority. Likewise a 10 point lead, which UNS says would give us a majority of 1 (if we're lucky) in reality would likely see a small landslide. A recent poll in Scotland had Labour just 2 pts ahead of the SNP. Indeed wading through the data of all the polls shows that the Tories have let go of a bit of their 'core' vote of late, Labour have got theirs motivated plus hold some of the soft Lib Dem vote. The Lib Dems are struggling at the moment but when the actual election comes round and people remember that they exist ( ) they will claw some of this back. In fact if you want to play games and impliment the expected election campaign movements now (based on what has happened in the past), then Labour can be clipped to 30-31 and the Tories upticked to 39-40. I see no harm in reminding everyone that in nearly every single pre-election poll in every general election going back to 1979 (and possibly before..someone on PB had it going back to the 50's (though this was when polling was not particularly good) ) Labour have been overestimated.

Now when the battle becomes Labour or Tory, the Lib Dems could be squeezed...but there is nothing to suggest at present (indeed quite the contrary) that people would prefer a Labour government over a Tory one.

There is still a private expectation, on both sides, that the Tories will win a majority. At worst they will fall just short. That is how it stands if the country voted now. What Gordon has to gamble is when to go to the polls. The fact that yesterday he did not makes me optimistic. We've got a possible budget. We have expected tax rises in April. We have a possible slide back towards recession. We have increasing inflation. Yet he's not gone yet.

I still expect something along the lines of Con39, Lab 30, Lib Dem 19 and a Conservative majority of 20-40 seats.

[Silent Hunter]

I agree with afleitch, although I'd put the Labour vote at about 32.

They've agreed the details for the debates.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it just me who thinks the Lib Dems have the most to gain from the debates?

[afleitch]

Is it just me who thinks the Lib Dems have the most to gain from the debates?

They have the most to gain from a campaign full stop. Although they need to come up with 'the line' to peddle if there is a hung parliament narrative. Ashdown in 1992 played it wrong coming over a tad too smug and the Lib Dems took a bit of a dive in the last week.

The most to gain from the debates is Cameron. He does them well and his round the country public forum chats have given him alot of experience even if there is an informal setting. He had the most to loose when things were better. Now he has the most to gain from a leaders debate.

[afleitch]

In fact if you want to play games and impliment the expected election campaign movements now (based on what has happened in the past), then Labour can be clipped to 30-31 and the Tories upticked to 39-40. I see no harm in reminding everyone that in nearly every single pre-election poll in every general election going back to 1979 (and possibly before..someone on PB had it going back to the 50's (though this was when polling was not particularly good) ) Labour have been overestimated.

I decided to have a go at this. Taking May 6th as the polling date (thank you Balls) which is just shy of 2 months from now (and taking the UKPollingReport rolling score 38/31/18) and taking the polling figures two months before an election in 92, 97, 01, 05 if we make the adjustment for what happened in each campaign we would get

1992 adjustment 40/27/20
1997 adjustment 39/26/23
2001 adjustment 39/25/22
2005 adjustment 39/28/20

Just fun really, but if we look at the polls for the two months before 2005

2005: 60 published polls. Overstating Labour - 58. Understating - 1. On the mark - 1.
2001: 41 published polls. Overstating Labour - 41.  ---                       --- 

That's just to explain why I automatically 'shave' something off from Labour's total.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to note that John Cryer is the Labour candidate in Leyton.

[Silent Hunter]

Just to note that John Cryer is the Labour candidate in Leyton.

Nice reward for him then; he only lost narrowly last time.

[Serenity Now]

Just to note that John Cryer is the Labour candidate in Leyton.

Yay!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new poll of Wales from YouGov:

Labour 37%
Tories 29%
Plaid 14%
LDem 12%

The problems with Welsh polling that I've pointed out before must be remembered (wrote some stuff in response to the last one, back in January). But, once again, these numbers don't seem obviously wrong. Its nice that a polling company is at least trying. There's also been an ICM poll which was mostly about devolution (good news there, btw) but which showed that amongst all adults in Wales, Brown/Jones were seen as better for the Welsh economy than Cameron/Bourne.

And we also have a poll of London from YouGov:

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDem 17%

YouGov did pretty well in the Mayoral election, if you recall.

[Harry Hayfield]

A new poll of Wales from YouGov:

Labour 37% -6%
Tories 29% +8%
Plaid 14% +1%
LDem 12% -6%
Others 8% +3%

Which would suggest UKIP getting 3% across the whole of Wales. In the Assembly elections they only managed 2% in the constituency vote (and that was when Labour was polling 32% across Wales). I think this poll is underestimating the Lib Dems and Labour and overestimating Conservatives and Plaid

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And that poll suggests that the Greens will get 4% (quite plausible) and that UKIP will get about 2% (which I agree with). I do disagree with the 0.5% Lib Dem to Lab swing in London (especially with Hampstead and Kilburn trending Lib Dem in local elections)