2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)

[Dereich]

I thought I'd do a fairly quick rundown on recent politics of Jacksonville and the upcoming mayoral election since Jacksonville politics have been fairly exciting in the lead up to this one. Jacksonville is extremely closely divided politically though Republicans still mostly dominate at the local level. The election is jungle primary style, round one set for March 21st with the top two facing off on May 16th. It is basically guaranteed that there will be a round two as there are three (maybe four, if I'm generous) very prominent candidates fighting for the top two. But first, the background:

The Curry Administration and the Privatization of JEA

The current mayor, Lenny Curry was elected in 2015 after defeating incumbent Democrat Alvin Brown who had made just enough enemies to be vulnerable to a well run campaign. Curry was always a bigger statewide name than a local one; he was never involved in local Jacksonville politics and started his run for office after a term as the Florida GOP Chairman. His administration has been insular and highly centralized around confidants and important donors; one might almost call it Trumpian. His campaigns have been extremely well funded and well run, as befitting the former head of the state party, but Curry left a lasting impression of parachuting in from Tallahassee. His biggest and most important donor of all is Shad Khan, billionaire owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since he bought the Jaguars in 2012 Khan has spent hundreds of millions across the city, particularly in the areas around the shipyards and the Jaguar's stadium. While the man himself is popular, his outsized political influence on the Curry Administration has ruffled feathers. Back in 2018 Khan put forward the "Lot J" proposal, strongly backed by the Curry Administration, to have the city spend $500 million on a hotel and business development project next to the lot J parking lot of the Jaguar's Stadium. But how to raise that money? Curry is a prominent Republican; he couldn't raise taxes. The need to raise more money for Khan's (unpopular) proposal and the Curry Administration's disconnected and tonedeaf approach to local politics led to the biggest political firestorm in decades, the attempted privatization of JEA in 2019.

JEA, the Jacksonville Electric Authority, is the largest public owned utilities company in Florida and eighth largest in the country. While it has a history of being poorly run, the consensus is that since the early 2000s JEA has had a decent-to-good service record and some of the cheapest rates in Florida. It was (probably importantly!) certainly better regarded than Florida Power and Light, the private energy company that services several local counties. Curry began laying the groundwork in his first term by firing and replacing the whole JEA board of directors and then appointing his close friend Aaron Zahn to be the interim CEO. While his (Republican head of the city council) main opponent accused Curry of trying to privatize JEA just before his reelection in March of 2019, at that point Curry swore up and down that he had no intention of doing so. Within weeks of his reelection, Curry and Zahn started the process to fast track the privatization process.

I think it came as a surprise to EVERYONE how strong and swift the backlash was to privatization. The plot singlehandedly revitalized and gave purpose to the local newspaper, the Florida Time-Union, which ran frontpage stories on the attempt every day for months. As more and more outlandish things came out about the plan, including Florida Power and Light offering an opponent on the city council a $250,000 job as a lobbyist for marijuana legalization if they'd step down, revelations that JEA had risen rates 4 times in a year at the behest of Zahn to make their rates look worse compared to private companies, evidence that consultants were hired to make the utility look worse and less effective than it was, a poorly thought out speech by Curry to the City Council demanding that they stop any investigations into the sale, and the reveal that Zahn and the new board of directors had created huge golden parachutes for themselves that would apply if the sale went through. All of this led to the utter collapse of the privatization, the arrest and indictment of Zahn for fraud, the end of Lot J, and an end to Curry's political capital and influence. Its a great story; those who want to know more can check out the sale's timeline, the local investigation on the secret plots or the links between the administration and the sale.

COVID and Beyond

COVID was one of the luckiest breaks that Curry got, if only because it stopped the constant news about JEA. Jacksonville had a decent enough COVID; the city has a very good medical network spearheaded by the Mayo Clinic and all political forces were pretty much on the same page. Unfortunately for Curry, he was outshone by more prominent Jacksonvillian Ron DeSantis and never got to benefit much. Since COVID, there were only a few political stories which have had any sustained interest: first, Curry's bizarre decision last year to suspend all curbside recycling for six months after the waste disposal companies had a few delayed/late days and the question of removal of local Confederate monuments. Even that has been a bit muted since local Republican politicians aren't fighting the idea of removing the monuments and have allotted money to remove them, its just been a slow process. Not helped by the pro-Confederate activists flying banners over the city during NFL games.

All of this leaves us with a top two election in a highly divided city in which Republicans are dragged down by the current administration (this is not the last time I will be mentioning JEA in this race!) and brutal infighting between a pro-Curry and anti-Curry heavyweight but benefit from national headwinds, huge amounts of money, and good vibes thanks in decent part to Khan's investments and the finally good Jaguars. On the right, the race has produced the HIGHLY amusing spectacle where every Republican claims to be the most conservative and most anti-privatization candidate in the same breath. The Democrats, meanwhile, have much less money and a worse local organization but no ties to the absolute mess Curry made and have the most well-known and popular candidate in the race. There's been basically no polling so nobody knows what's going to happen come March. This has gone longer than I expected so I'll follow up with the big candidates next post.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The last pooling was like 6 months ago, but had Deegan in the lead which is believable given her natural name recognition. I feel her getting into the runoff is a decent bet

[Dereich]

Serious Candidates

Daniel Davis (R) Current head of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, former State Representative. At the start of the year he had $4.5 million cash on hand. The establishment pro-Curry Republican and likely favorite to reach the second round. At one point back in 2010 or so represented the hardest right of local Republican politics but times change. Has united most but not all of local establishment behind him. While the new sheriff, local congressman, and his Chamber of Commerce are supporting him, some normal establishment organizations like Fire & Rescue are favoring Cumber.

LeAnna Cumber (R) City Council Member. At the start of the year had about $2.8 million cash on hand. The anti-Curry Republican. Every Republican who was left out in the cold by Curry has now come out of the woodwork to support Cumber. Her base of support comes from developers, new money, and small/medium business owners who have seen big donors and Curry allies enjoy all the political influence. Third most likely to reach the second round

Donna Deegan (D) Former news anchor, runs a cancer non-profit, 2020 Democratic Congressional Candidate. Started the year with about $700k cash on hand. As mentioned, in the one poll for this race back in October she was the only candidate to break double digits with a cool 22%. Her campaign has been very low key and positive. She hasn't said much about any issues and has focused on her personality. Its been successful in that she, the most popular and well known candidate, has mostly escaped attacks from the two with deep enough pockets to attack her. I think she's also highly likely to reach round 2.

Somewhat Serious

Audrey Gibson (D) Former State Senator and Senate Minority Leader. Had about $150k cash on hand in January. Gibson represented a district composed mostly of Downtown Jacksonville until 2022. I haven't seen much in terms of support or advertisement for Gibson; her campaign has been laser focused on downtown and Northside areas that she used to represent or are majority black. Gibson's plan is the same one Alvin Brown had back in 2011; unite a large enough block of Black Democrats to get to the 2nd round on 20-25% support. With the lack of polling its hard to tell how successful she's been, but I very much doubt she'll succeed. Her last few campaigns were uncontested and Deegan has a more far-reaching campaign organization. I think the real risk is that she Deegan split the Democratic vote and let Cumber and Davis into the second round.

Joke Candidates

Everyone else


Currently, Davis and Cumber are engaged in a vicious negative ad campaign. Cumber is accusing Davis of being soft on sex crimes against children due to his vote back in 2013 on a bill to address abuse against children in unlicensed religious homes for children, a bill that failed by one vote. Cumber also put out an ad accusing Davis of supporting JEA privatization back in 2019. Davis, meanwhile, is accusing Cumber of keeping her own involvement in the JEA privatization secret, pointing to her husband's involvement with a private equity firm that made a bid during the privatization process. On that note, at Mayor Curry's request, the city council opened a special committee yesterday into Cumber's potential undisclosed involvement in the sale. A committee headed by a Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce executive...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Apperently Deegan is Lebanese, so she has my vote. Her cousin Tommy Hazouri was mayor 1987-1991. He passed away in 2021.

[Хahar 🤔]

My friend once interviewed Lenny Curry for a story about Trevor Lawrence and then two days later discovered that he had covid, so add that to the list of Curry's misdeeds.

[Duke of York]

what are the chances Deegan wins outright?

[Dereich]

what are the chances Deegan wins outright?

Oh definitely none. Gibson is definitely going to take some percentage and the absolute ceiling for any Democrat is going to be ~55%. Deegan making it to 40 would be a stellar night for her.

[Dereich]

We have a poll! Its a poll with decimals, but its still a poll! A fairly surprising one too:

Donna Deegan (D): 35.2%
Daniel Davis (R): 17.5%
Al Ferraro (R): 10.6%
Audrey Gibson (D): 10.2%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber (R): 4.1%
Omega Allen (I): 2.4%
Frank Keasler (R): 0.4%

Undecided / Won’t say: 19.7%

Runoff

Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%


478 LV, St. Pete Polls from February 13th

That Cumber, who has spent more in the last month than Deegan has raised in total, is all the way at 4% is pathetic. I still expect her to outperform these numbers by quite a bit since she's gotten several recent endorsements from local organizations known to campaign well, but its a bad sign for her making it to round 2. Al Ferraro, undistinguished city councilor and lawn service owner, is also doing surprisingly well.

No one is really attacking her yet, but Deegan seems well placed to take over the largest city in the country currently run by a Republican.

[gerritcole]

Great write up, will keep checking this thread 🪡  🧵

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I hope Deegan can win this seat and flip it to the Dems. She’s already in her 60s so I don’t know if she’ll have a future after Mayoralship. If all goes well she might be a decent statewide candidate down the road.

[UWS]

We have a poll! Its a poll with decimals, but its still a poll! A fairly surprising one too:

Donna Deegan (D): 35.2%
Daniel Davis (R): 17.5%
Al Ferraro (R): 10.6%
Audrey Gibson (D): 10.2%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber (R): 4.1%
Omega Allen (I): 2.4%
Frank Keasler (R): 0.4%

Undecided / Won’t say: 19.7%

Runoff

Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%


478 LV, St. Pete Polls from February 13th

That Cumber, who has spent more in the last month than Deegan has raised in total, is all the way at 4% is pathetic. I still expect her to outperform these numbers by quite a bit since she's gotten several recent endorsements from local organizations known to campaign well, but its a bad sign for her making it to round 2. Al Ferraro, undistinguished city councilor and lawn service owner, is also doing surprisingly well.

No one is really attacking her yet, but Deegan seems well placed to take over the largest city in the country currently run by a Republican.

It's the same firm polling that had Andrew Gillum winning by 5 in 2018, had Charlie Crist winning by 1 percentage point and had DeSantis winning by just 6 percentage points.

Deegan is the 2020 Democratic nominee in FL-04 and she lost it by 22 percentage points against John Rutherford even though she made healthcare, climate change, and gun violence prevention her top priorities. And Republicans won the Duval County by double digits last year and last November Republicans had a registration edge by 22,000 in the Duval County over the Democrats and it likely increased since then

Deegan's positions are out of step with the people of Jacksonville. Deegan called mask mandates "good news". She opposed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 even though it contributed to strong job creation and prosperity in the country, including in Jacksonville, she said in 2020 that she would support Biden's plan to increase taxes and raise nearly $4 trillion over the next decade and increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

If you look at states that implement the policies supported by Deegan - high taxes, high regulations, mask mandates - states, you look at California, which is hemmoraging population. No wonder that these policies supported by Deegan resulted that Tesla moved its headquarters from California to Texas. No wonder that the cost of U-Haul travel from California to Florida is 200 % the cost of a U-Haul travel from Florida to California because in Florida, including in Jacksonville, we understand that if you get the government off the back of small businesses Floridians do well. That's why Jacksonville's unemployment rate went from 6.1 % in 2015 to 2.1 % today. And Daniel Davis understands it through his experience as president of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and he has the right knowledge and background to pursue Jacksonville's prosperity through lower taxes, small government and free enterprise

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news change is in the air

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have a poll! Its a poll with decimals, but its still a poll! A fairly surprising one too:

Donna Deegan (D): 35.2%
Daniel Davis (R): 17.5%
Al Ferraro (R): 10.6%
Audrey Gibson (D): 10.2%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber (R): 4.1%
Omega Allen (I): 2.4%
Frank Keasler (R): 0.4%

Undecided / Won’t say: 19.7%

Runoff

Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%


478 LV, St. Pete Polls from February 13th

That Cumber, who has spent more in the last month than Deegan has raised in total, is all the way at 4% is pathetic. I still expect her to outperform these numbers by quite a bit since she's gotten several recent endorsements from local organizations known to campaign well, but its a bad sign for her making it to round 2. Al Ferraro, undistinguished city councilor and lawn service owner, is also doing surprisingly well.

No one is really attacking her yet, but Deegan seems well placed to take over the largest city in the country currently run by a Republican.

It's the same firm polling that had Andrew Gillum winning by 5 in 2018, had Charlie Crist winning by 1 percentage point and had DeSantis winning by just 6 percentage points.

Deegan is the 2020 Democratic nominee in FL-04 and she lost it by 22 percentage points against John Rutherford even though she made healthcare, climate change, and gun violence prevention her top priorities. And Republicans won the Duval County by double digits last year and last November Republicans had a registration edge by 22,000 in the Duval County over the Democrats and it likely increased since then

Deegan's positions are out of step with the people of Jacksonville. Deegan called mask mandates "good news". She opposed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 even though it contributed to strong job creation and prosperity in the country, including in Jacksonville, she said in 2020 that she would support Biden's plan to increase taxes and raise nearly $4 trillion over the next decade and increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

If you look at states that implement the policies supported by Deegan - high taxes, high regulations, mask mandates - states, you look at California, which is hemmoraging population. No wonder that these policies supported by Deegan resulted that Tesla moved its headquarters from California to Texas. No wonder that the cost of U-Haul travel from California to Florida is 200 % the cost of a U-Haul travel from Florida to California because in Florida, including in Jacksonville, we understand that if you get the government off the back of small businesses Floridians do well. That's why Jacksonville's unemployment rate went from 6.1 % in 2015 to 2.1 % today. And Daniel Davis understands it through his experience as president of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and he has the right knowledge and background to pursue Jacksonville's prosperity through lower taxes, small government and free enterprise

RS aren't winning OH or FL by 25 pts ever again that's for sure that's why Brown stands a better chance than Ryan DeWine single handle won the Sen race for Vance he only won by 6 and DeWine isn't on the ballot 24

The S race with Scott and Matt Boswell is gonna  be within 5 pts

[Fuzzy Bear]

Does Jacksonville now have a non-partisan "jungle primary"?

[UWS]

If you look at states that implement the policies supported by Deegan - high taxes, high regulations, mask mandates - states, you look at California, which is hemmoraging population. No wonder that these policies supported by Deegan resulted that Tesla moved its headquarters from California to Texas. No wonder that the cost of U-Haul travel from California to Florida is 200 % the cost of a U-Haul travel from Florida to California because in Florida, including in Jacksonville, we understand that if you get the government off the back of small businesses Floridians do well. That's why Jacksonville's unemployment rate went from 6.1 % in 2015 to 2.1 % today. And Daniel Davis understands it through his experience as president of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and he has the right knowledge and background to pursue Jacksonville's prosperity through lower taxes, small government and free enterprise

Do you get paid to make posts like this or do you do it out of a love of the game?

Unlike you, I’m not afraid to stand up for what I believe. That is what democracy and free speech is about. Let me remind you that this is not China * this is America

[UWS]

Donna Deegan has endorsed Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for abolition of ICE, seeked to raise FL’s corporate tax rate to 7.75 percent, called for $1 billion tax hike and for an even higher tax rate than NY. So Deegan agrees with Andrew Gillum’s socialist agenda and supports open borders and higher taxes

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Donna Deegan has endorsed Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for abolition of ICE, seeked to raise FL’s corporate tax rate to 7.75 percent, called for $1 billion tax hike and for an even higher tax rate than NY. So Deegan agrees with Andrew Gillum’s socialist agenda and supports open borders and higher taxes

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

.he couldn't have raised taxes it was an R state legislature and do you you corporate pays our SSA taxes too we don't put into our SSA our Employers pays part of our  SSA taxes

The RS are never gonna win FL by 20 ever again it was only due to IAN

The poll in Jax Mayor should tell you FL isn't an R 20 state no more it's going back to pre IAN

[smoltchanov]

If you look at states that implement the policies supported by Deegan - high taxes, high regulations, mask mandates - states, you look at California, which is hemmoraging population. No wonder that these policies supported by Deegan resulted that Tesla moved its headquarters from California to Texas. No wonder that the cost of U-Haul travel from California to Florida is 200 % the cost of a U-Haul travel from Florida to California because in Florida, including in Jacksonville, we understand that if you get the government off the back of small businesses Floridians do well. That's why Jacksonville's unemployment rate went from 6.1 % in 2015 to 2.1 % today. And Daniel Davis understands it through his experience as president of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and he has the right knowledge and background to pursue Jacksonville's prosperity through lower taxes, small government and free enterprise

Do you get paid to make posts like this or do you do it out of a love of the game?

Unlike you, I’m not afraid to stand up for what I believe. That is what democracy and free speech is about. Let me remind you that this is not China * this is America

One word only: idiocy....

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Donna Deegan has endorsed Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for abolition of ICE, seeked to raise FL’s corporate tax rate to 7.75 percent, called for $1 billion tax hike and for an even higher tax rate than NY. So Deegan agrees with Andrew Gillum’s socialist agenda and supports open borders and higher taxes

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Donna Deegan has endorsed Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary even though Gillum called for abolition of ICE, seeked to raise FL’s corporate tax rate to 7.75 percent, called for $1 billion tax hike and for an even higher tax rate than NY. So Deegan agrees with Andrew Gillum’s socialist agenda and supports open borders and higher taxes

https://folioweekly.com/2018/04/18/donna-deegans-first-political-endorsement-is-as-bold-as-it-is-surprising/

I’m sure this will sink her campaign (/s)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Jacksonville now have a non-partisan "jungle primary"?

Yes, as noted in the first paragraph of the OP:

The election is jungle primary style, round one set for March 21st with the top two facing off on May 16th.

I'll modify the thread title to include the dates.

[Dereich]

Another poll:

Donna Deegan (D): 37%
Daniel Davis (R): 20%
Al Ferraro (R): 8%
Audrey Gibson (D): 7%
LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber (R): 5% (lol)
Frank Keasler (R): 3%
Omega Allen (I): 1%

Undecided / Won’t say: 22%

Runoff:

Donna Deegan (D): 48%
Daniel Davis (R): 39%

593 LV, University of North Florida 2/20-2/24


I think the polling is fair; Deegan is well known and at minimum not disliked. Most of what UWS said above isn't really worth addressing but I would specifically disagree with what he said about Deegan's run in 2020. That was widely seen as an overperformance; it was the closest race in the district in 20 years. Deegan getting 39% against the incumbent former sheriff in the white parts of Jacksonville in a law-and-order election is the biggest reason that she's the Democratic frontrunner instead of Gibson.

As I've said, I expect a close race in the end and Davis is clearly saving his money now that he no longer sees Cumber as a threat, but he's obviously going to start from a disadvantage.

[Dereich]

Its election day! Turnout has been absolutely abysmal. Turnout has only just now topped 2019 when there was no Democrat on the ballot. During early voting turnout among voters under 60 was 6.2% (compared to 28.4% for those over 60) and Republicans hold a 74k to 68k lead in currently cast votes. There is certainly no chance with those numbers of a round 1 win. It also looks like the final spending numbers will have been about $10 million for the Republican candidates to about $1 million for the Democrats.

My prediction:

Deegan 37
Davis 25
Ferraro 15
Cumber 10
Gibson 9
Others 3

[Oryxslayer]

Early + Early in Person. Obviously more Dem then final results, but Deegan progresses to the runoff as expected. Also i think that's a Dem overperformace based on registration numbers of the currently totaled votes.

[2016]

The Total Votes Cast in Duval County for this Jungle Primary is R+4! Get that!