2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)

[Dereich]

An update! We're about a month out from the runoff.

First, the biggest election story has been "Permitgate". The city denied the DONNA Foundation's permit for its Mother's Day 5k charity run saying it was too close to the election and that the organization was too associated with Deegan to allow it to go forward. The whole thing looked rather bad for all involved and the city eventually backed down when their general counsel stated that there was no legal basis to deny the permit.

In terms of fundraising, Davis continues to blow Deegan out of the water having raised about $550,000 to Deegan's $180,000 since the first round. As far as ads, the tones have stayed the same; Davis going aggressive with an ad accusing Deegan of hating police for attending Black Lives Matters protests while Deegan's have been exclusively positive and mostly issueless fluff. Interestingly, Ferraro and Cumber have declined to endorse Davis while Gibson actively refused to endorse Deegan.

 
As far as polling, there was one poll that came out this week from somewhere called "Frederick Polls" which doesn't actually list its poll results on its website. It shows the race consolidating but with Deegan still holding a lead. According to pictures taken of its results summary, the race currently stands at

Deegan (D): 54
Davis (R): 46

Again, we don't have the crosstabs but apparently they found decent crossover numbers for Ferraro and Cumber voters going for Deegan. The little information we do have can be found here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Frederick Polls doesn't have much of a track record.  They had a poll in the GA-SEN runoff last year that showed a tied race, but IIRC their polls in 2020 tended to overestimate Democrats by a few points.

[Dereich]

New poll! UNF has a poll out this morning showing Republicans consolidating behind Davis.

Deegan (D): 48%
Davis (R):    47%

UNF PORL, 650 LV 3.8% MOE April 10-11

If the race is indeed consolidating and turnout is anything like as bad as it was for round 1 it now looks very possible for Davis to overcome his unpopularity and keep the largest GOP held city in Republican hands.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL being FL again it's not even May yet so it can go either way and Desantis is still a factor, which he wont be in the GE because Trump is go na be the nominee

[UWS]

With Davis winning 58 % of the Latino vote in Jacksonville shows his momentum just like George W. Bush won 56 % of FL’s Latino vote in 2004, which is one of the reasons why he won the Duval County with 58% of the vote over Kerry’s 41%

https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

[2016]

New poll! UNF has a poll out this morning showing Republicans consolidating behind Davis.

Deegan (D): 48%
Davis (R):    47%

UNF PORL, 650 LV 3.8% MOE April 10-11

If the race is indeed consolidating and turnout is anything like as bad as it was for round 1 it now looks very possible for Davis to overcome his unpopularity and keep the largest GOP held city in Republican hands.

Deegan has a huge Problem. I am hearing Republicans are running Ads tying Deegan to Andrew Gillum and if that is true she is toast.

[Dereich]

With Davis winning 58 % of the Latino vote in Jacksonville shows his momentum just like George W. Bush won 56 % of FL’s Latino vote in 2004, which is one of the reasons why he won the Duval County with 58% of the vote over Kerry’s 41%

https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

Maybe? Jacksonville is much less Hispanic than other parts of the state; just over 6% of the electorate here is Hispanic and is (though I can only speak anecdotally on this point) it is much less Cuban than other Hispanic populations here. Duval County might not quite fit the statewide Hispanic voting patterns. Also, the UNF poll only had 25 Hispanic respondents so I definitely think you shouldn't read too much there.

[ajc0918]

New poll out. Election day is tomorrow.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2023_Jacksonville_May14_J7CG9.pdf

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Republican Daniel Davis and Democrat Donna Deegan, who would you
vote for?

Daniel Davis (R): 46.1%
Donna Deegan (D): 47.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 6.1%

If the election were held today for Property Appraiser, and the candidates
were: Republican Jason Fischer and Democrat Joyce Morgan who would
you vote for?

Jason Fischer (R): 43.4%
Joyce Morgan (D): 50.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 5.8%

[Mr.Phips]

New poll out. Election day is tomorrow.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2023_Jacksonville_May14_J7CG9.pdf

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Republican Daniel Davis and Democrat Donna Deegan, who would you
vote for?

Daniel Davis (R): 46.1%
Donna Deegan (D): 47.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 6.1%

If the election were held today for Property Appraiser, and the candidates
were: Republican Jason Fischer and Democrat Joyce Morgan who would
you vote for?

Jason Fischer (R): 43.4%
Joyce Morgan (D): 50.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 5.8%

Hmm doesn’t seem that Duval county is an area where Republicans outperform the polls in FL.  That seems to be more a Pasco/Hernando/Volusia/Polk thing where there are a lot of shy Trump working class voters.  Duval county has more upscale voters.  I could well be wrong of course.

[2016]

New poll out. Election day is tomorrow.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2023_Jacksonville_May14_J7CG9.pdf

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Republican Daniel Davis and Democrat Donna Deegan, who would you
vote for?

Daniel Davis (R): 46.1%
Donna Deegan (D): 47.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 6.1%

If the election were held today for Property Appraiser, and the candidates
were: Republican Jason Fischer and Democrat Joyce Morgan who would
you vote for?

Jason Fischer (R): 43.4%
Joyce Morgan (D): 50.8%
Undecided / Won’t say: 5.8%

Duval is a Democratic-trending County. Democrats have a 5-Point Registration Edge so they should win this going away.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA AND FL are the fastest trending Purple state out there that's why it's not a battleground anymore

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dereich, any last thoughts on the race?

[Dereich]

Duval is a Democratic-trending County. Democrats have a 5-Point Registration Edge so they should win this going away.

Demographics are never destiny, especially in Florida. Expecting higher voter registration numbers to prevail over a better message, candidates, and campaigning is exactly what doomed the Florida Democrats to begin with. The Duval County GOP, unsurprisingly, has major advantages in party organization and much better funded campaigns than their Democratic counterpart. The only reason this is a race at all instead of a GOP coronation is the weakness of Davis and strength of Deegan compared to their parties.

Dereich, any last thoughts on the race?

Its election day, turnout has been slightly higher than the primary but still pretty bad. The Democratic early vote lead was just in the last hour erased by GOP election day turnout.

Every indication is that there will be a GOP turnout advantage, probably around 4% compared to the 5.5% advantage they had in the primary. Everyone is expecting Deegan to get SOME crossover; she's well known/liked and Davis is a wet blanket who stepped on a lot of toes during the campaign. I didn't mention it in the thread before but Davis skipped the debates after the first one (perhaps in line with what some other GOP candidates have been discussing) and had far fewer speeches and public appearances than Deegan; he's a pretty poor public speaker and clearly dislikes doing so.

The whole thing comes down to whether Deegan's crossover support is high enough to overcome superior GOP turnout. Just from anecdotes I think the crossover votes are there for Deegan but at heart I'm a cynic who believes that Davis's extremely negative campaign and (R) will be just enough for him to win. I dunno; we'll see tonight.

[2016]

Donna Deegan is a far-leftist "Defund the Police" type of Democrat anyways.

[Dereich]

Donna Deegan is a far-leftist "Defund the Police" type of Democrat anyways.

Your definition of far-left would have to include Joe Manchin and everyone to his left to be correct here. Lenny Curry and Daniel Davis both attended the same marches that Deegan did here.


Polls are now closed. Republicans ended with a lead of 7200 votes (a lead of 3.32% over the Democrats). Total voters: 217,687. An abysmal turnout of 33%.

Deegan leads 57-43 with just the early votes counted.

[wbrocks67]

Donna Deegan is a far-leftist "Defund the Police" type of Democrat anyways.

lmao now sis, you tried it

[Dereich]

Donna Deegan is a far-leftist "Defund the Police" type of Democrat anyways.

lmao now sis, you tried it

Well that WAS the main lines of attack for the Davis campaign. Its not like its out of the blue.

[Minnesota Mike]

Deegan outpreformed the registration of early/absentee voters.  She is currently up 17K, Reps had a about a 14K election day turnout advantage. It will be close but I would rather be Deegan at this point.

[Spectator]

Deegan outpreformed the registration of early/absentee voters.  She is currently up 17K, Reps had a about a 14K election day turnout advantage. It will be close but I would rather be Deegan at this point.

I think it’s pretty safe to say she will win, the question is more the margin. The property appraiser race looks like a tossup. City council at large is likely GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

Eday vote drop, Reps didn't get what they needed. Deegan wins off the expected crossover.

Now property assessor looks to be tight.

[Dereich]

Deegan outpreformed the registration of early/absentee voters.  She is currently up 17K, Reps had a about a 14K election day turnout advantage. It will be close but I would rather be Deegan at this point.

I think it’s pretty safe to say she will win, the question is more the margin. The property appraiser race looks like a tossup. City council at large is likely GOP.

I'm pretty confident in saying that city council is safe GOP.

With 115 / 186 precincts reporting Deegan leads 92,989 (53.50%) to Davis's 80,822 (46.50%)

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

[Dereich]

Very thankful that after 2000 Florida got so much better at running and counting elections.

Precincts Reporting: 168 / 186

Deegan: 106,480 (52.61%)

Davis: 95,934 (47.39%)

[Dereich]

The media is starting to call it for Deegan. The biggest Republican-led city in the country is picked up by the Democrats.

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

I've made the point earlier in the thread; Deegan had quite a few advantages that were absolutely necessary to overcome the superior GOP election organization. This election is not a good sign for the Florida Democrats; Deegan didn't win because of their support, she overcame them dragging her down.

[Spectator]

The media is starting to call it for Deegan. The biggest Republican-led city in the country is picked up by the Democrats.

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

I've made the point earlier in the thread; Deegan had quite a few advantages that were absolutely necessary to overcome the superior GOP election organization. This election is not a good sign for the Florida Democrats; Deegan didn't win because of their support, she overcame them dragging her down.

Yeah, this isn’t necessarily a positive sign for Florida Democrats writ large. It’s just the Donna Deegan was a much better candidate than Davis.

Also, Jacksonville is now well to the left of the state as a whole.  Not really good to extrapolate.