2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)
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  2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)
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Author Topic: 2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)  (Read 5480 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #75 on: May 16, 2023, 06:36:00 PM »

Let's see how Florida Dems do in a special election.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #76 on: May 16, 2023, 06:37:36 PM »

The media is starting to call it for Deegan. The biggest Republican-led city in the country is picked up by the Democrats.

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

I've made the point earlier in the thread; Deegan had quite a few advantages that were absolutely necessary to overcome the superior GOP election organization. This election is not a good sign for the Florida Democrats; Deegan didn't win because of their support, she overcame them dragging her down.

Yeah, this isn’t necessarily a positive sign for Florida Democrats writ large. It’s just the Donna Deegan was a much better candidate than Davis.

Also, Jacksonville is now well to the left of the state as a whole.  Not really good to extrapolate.

Exactly. The GOP will end up controlling all 5 at large city council seats and the vast majority f the overall city council. This loss is almost entirely on the candidate strength difference between Deegan and Davis.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #77 on: May 16, 2023, 06:40:07 PM »

Jacksonville Mayor Runoff
Last updated:
5/16/2023, 6:39:27 PM
Candidates   Votes   Pct.
Donna Deegan DEM   109,260   51.94%
Daniel Davis GOP   101,115   48.06%
* = IncumbentPrecincts reporting: 90%
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Holmes
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« Reply #78 on: May 16, 2023, 06:40:26 PM »

If someone told us a decade ago that Jacksonville would be voting well to the left of the state at large, most people probably wouldn't have expected the state to lurch so far to the right within those ten years.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #79 on: May 16, 2023, 06:42:20 PM »

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

One local election doesn't undo past failures. if anything, its just more evidence that persuasion effects are really only working to the benefit of the Dems in a post-Roe environment.

And Dem's improving in the Jacksonville metro won't win them the state, as show by 2020. Its a good flip, but Florida is a big state full of large independently moving voter cohorts, and the FLDP's perpetual problem is they are campaigning for the votes based on the alignment of cohorts in the last election, when change is rapid enough and fluid enough to leave them behind. If you want a hot take, it's that the FLDP fell into their problems the moment the disparate voter groups became large enough to matter, and 2000 just revealed it to the world.
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Dereich
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« Reply #80 on: May 16, 2023, 06:43:40 PM »

For the remaining at-large elections Joyce Morgan (D) is currently leading for property appraiser 50.5%-49.5% while Chris Miller (R) is winning 52.3%-47.7% in the at-large city council race. There's a NIMBYite building height amendment up for vote in the Beaches that Morgan attached herself to. The beaches turnout was the biggest turnout bright spot for today; I'm willing to say that was a big part of Morgan doing so well.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #81 on: May 16, 2023, 06:47:54 PM »

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

One local election doesn't undo past failures. if anything, its just more evidence that persuasion effects are really only working to the benefit of the Dems in a post-Roe environment.

And Dem's improving in the Jacksonville metro won't win them the state, as show by 2020. Its a good flip, but Florida is a big state full of large independently moving voter cohorts, and the FLDP's perpetual problem is they are campaigning for the votes based on the alignment of cohorts in the last election, when change is rapid enough and fluid enough to leave them behind. If you want a hot take, it's that the FLDP fell into their problems the moment the disparate voter groups became large enough to matter, and 2000 just revealed it to the world.
What's a way FLDP can overcome that?
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NYDem
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« Reply #82 on: May 16, 2023, 07:01:31 PM »

Nice to see that there’s at least one Floridian Democrat who knows how to win an election.
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Dereich
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« Reply #83 on: May 16, 2023, 07:08:32 PM »

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

One local election doesn't undo past failures. if anything, its just more evidence that persuasion effects are really only working to the benefit of the Dems in a post-Roe environment.

And Dem's improving in the Jacksonville metro won't win them the state, as show by 2020. Its a good flip, but Florida is a big state full of large independently moving voter cohorts, and the FLDP's perpetual problem is they are campaigning for the votes based on the alignment of cohorts in the last election, when change is rapid enough and fluid enough to leave them behind. If you want a hot take, it's that the FLDP fell into their problems the moment the disparate voter groups became large enough to matter, and 2000 just revealed it to the world.
What's a way FLDP can overcome that?


Theories have been debated, strategies have been tried, tens of millions have been wasted trying to answer that question. No one has an answer. It took the GOP decades to build its machine and overcome decades of Democratic dominance. No chance the Democrats can find an immediate quick fix.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #84 on: May 16, 2023, 07:16:49 PM »


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wbrocks67
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« Reply #85 on: May 16, 2023, 07:19:19 PM »

Okay, but seriously, let's not do the whole "Democrat wins the race! Here's how that is bad for Democrats" BS
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #86 on: May 16, 2023, 07:20:25 PM »

Rod JOSEPH or Matt Boswell is gonna be next Sen  Bernie said he endorsed Boswell but Joseph is getting all the endorsements🔵🔵🔵🔵 blue wave, Happy mayor Deegan
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2016
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« Reply #87 on: May 16, 2023, 08:09:39 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2023, 08:34:01 PM by 2016 »

@Dereich,
Congrats on the Donna Deagan Win. As you have said and outlined: Candidate Quality matters and Daniel Davis was a terrible Candidate with a lot of baggage.

But get this: Davis' Chief Campaign Strategist was SUSIE WILES who now works for Trump. Explains why Governor DeSantis never campaigned with Daniel Davis.

WILES was fired by DeSantis because of too many leaks within DeSantis' Governors Office in 2019.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #88 on: May 16, 2023, 08:18:57 PM »

Watch DeSantis and legislature strip the Mayor of Jacksonville of all power and give it to someone he appoints.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #89 on: May 16, 2023, 08:27:11 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2023, 08:33:10 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Watch DeSantis and legislature strip the Mayor of Jacksonville of all power and give it to someone he appoints.

The problem isn't with Rs it's McCarthy and that Unconstitutional Debt Ceiling bill Clyburn and James Harrison are chairs of the DNC do you think they are gonna give Rs an issue for 24 by denying younger voters he promised Student loan Forgiveness, no I don't care what Treasury say about Minting the Coin 43 Rs signed the Filibuster blocking anu Debt Ceiling increase without Student Loan Forgiveness being Banned, Biden a couple of days before June 1st is gonna have to Mint the coin May 27th before Memorial Day.  sSA checks are deposited in bank accounts May 27/29 th because Online Banks gives it 2 days early before June 3rd where most get SSA


There is no way with being a partisan not a unifying force is McCarthy gonna be Soeaker he had a Honeymoon it's gone, he has a Homekess CRISIS in CA Homekess people ride the bus for free and get food stamps you can hop on back of bus in CA without paying
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #90 on: May 16, 2023, 09:22:55 PM »

The largest city in the country with a Republican mayor is now Fort Worth, Texas.

And given the way Texas has been trending in recent years, I wouldn't count on that lasting much longer either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #91 on: May 17, 2023, 01:02:16 AM »

It doesn't matter about how low Biden Approvals are Ds vote in Edays not just Rs
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Pollster
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« Reply #92 on: May 17, 2023, 08:18:44 AM »

I attended an event last night that prevented me from following results as they came in so I'm just catching up here now, but this result by this margin with this turnout is pretty astonishing, and not really something that can be chalked up to Democrats having irregular election turnout advantages. A lot to be learned from this and a much needed win for Florida Democrats.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #93 on: May 17, 2023, 08:28:59 AM »

AZ Iced tea needs to stop coming on Pbower Approvals and say Trump is gonna win due to Biden 43)54 Approvals he hasn't since it's tiresome
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2016
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« Reply #94 on: May 17, 2023, 09:25:24 AM »

Florida Republicans are starting to blame former President DONALD J. TRUMP for the Jacksonville Mayoral loss.

They are saying if the Republican Candidate for Mayor Daniel Davis (in addition to being a bad Candidate) wanted Governor DeSantis help he would have never hired Jacksonville-based Strategist SUSAN WILES.

Wiles drew the ire of Governor DeSantis Political Orbit 5 Months into his 1st Term as Governor and was subsequently fired because of too many leaks with inside the Governors Office.

Wiles is now a Chief Strategist for the Trump 2024 Campaign and its "Save America SuperPac"!
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Devils30
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« Reply #95 on: May 17, 2023, 11:14:07 AM »

Dems holding up in Duval means little for Florida as a whole since Miami continues to trend red but these trends suggest Georgia is close to likely D if Trump is the GOP nominee.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #96 on: May 17, 2023, 11:29:42 AM »

Dems holding up in Duval means little for Florida as a whole since Miami continues to trend red but these trends suggest Georgia is close to likely D if Trump is the GOP nominee.

Lol Rubio i was on the ballot im 22 guess what March Emerson poll has in Trump v Biden 44 tie

Just like WI we won by 11 give a rest stop Dooming on Biden he isn't Hillary Clinton 2.0

We don't have a nominee yet for FL Senat
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #97 on: May 17, 2023, 04:28:46 PM »

I just hope Democrats don’t get too cocky with this and poor every cent they have into Florida next year.

Republicans could flip the gym teacher in Middle of Nowhere Texas and that clearly proves it’s as R+20 as it was in 2004, but Democrats flip the biggest GOP city in the nation and suddenly it’s all sunshine and rainbows for Florida Dems.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #98 on: May 17, 2023, 04:52:59 PM »

I just hope Democrats don’t get too cocky with this and poor every cent they have into Florida next year.

Republicans could flip the gym teacher in Middle of Nowhere Texas and that clearly proves it’s as R+20 as it was in 2004, but Democrats flip the biggest GOP city in the nation and suddenly it’s all sunshine and rainbows for Florida Dems.

I hope they don’t read too much into it too, but then again maybe it does suggest Florida isn’t quite as far gone as people thought. The problem is the trends in South Florida, particularly Miami, are still bad for us. Unless those reverse (and it’s not IMPOSSIBLE; Bush did better there and in the state as a whole in 2004 than Trump did in 2020), then the irony could be that we would win the state if the trends in the rest of the state held but the South Florida R trends never happened. It would be a frustrating way for it to remain forever just out of reach.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #99 on: May 17, 2023, 08:36:27 PM »

Why exactly is Property Appraiser an elected office in Jacksonville?  What kind of political decision do they make?  Isn't most of the job based on math?  I would hope it is.
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