2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election (jungle primary 3/21, runoff 5/16)

[Oryxslayer]

Early + Early in Person. Obviously more Dem then final results, but Deegan progresses to the runoff as expected. Also i think that's a Dem overperformace based on registration numbers of the currently totaled votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically the final results. Davis also advances. I think the results make it clear that both candidates can win in a runoff situation, despite the the electorate favoring the GOP by registration.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1638337414715396096?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Eday vote drop, Reps didn't get what they needed. Deegan wins off the expected crossover.

Now property assessor looks to be tight.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, Deegan really outperforming the voter reg - was expecting a loss after seeing those earlier. Exciting! FL Dems aren't completely dead after all!

One local election doesn't undo past failures. if anything, its just more evidence that persuasion effects are really only working to the benefit of the Dems in a post-Roe environment.

And Dem's improving in the Jacksonville metro won't win them the state, as show by 2020. Its a good flip, but Florida is a big state full of large independently moving voter cohorts, and the FLDP's perpetual problem is they are campaigning for the votes based on the alignment of cohorts in the last election, when change is rapid enough and fluid enough to leave them behind. If you want a hot take, it's that the FLDP fell into their problems the moment the disparate voter groups became large enough to matter, and 2000 just revealed it to the world.

[Oryxslayer]

Why exactly is Property Appraiser an elected office in Jacksonville?  What kind of political decision do they make?  Isn't most of the job based on math?  I would hope it is.

It is an administrative job, so it probably shouldn't be elected, a similar situation to coroners in much of the south. Leads to situations like in this election where candidates run both as partisans with direct appeals: Fischer the Republican made it part of his pitch that the office could somehow lower property tax rates on suburban homes.