2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[Mike88]

Why is the thread title ROC and not Taiwan?

The official name of Taiwan is "Republic of China (ROC)".

[jaichind]

Why is the thread title ROC and not Taiwan?

For the simple reason that the official name of the election is

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89

2024年中華民國總統選舉 or 2024 Republic of China Presidential Election.

There is no election called the "Taiwan" election since the election is also held in the Fujian Province of the Republic of China.  In 1994 there was an election called the "Governor of Taiwan Province election" which could be accurately called the "Taiwan" election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can someone explain Taiwanese political geography to me? I’ve always been curious but am having trouble piecing it together.

It's roughly ethno-linguistic, at least at a basal level, though it should be noted that the entire subject is a very messy one in Taiwan:

[Frodo]

It's official:

Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te as president, sending a defiant message of democracy to China

Taiwan's Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate from the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party, won a landslide victory on Saturday as the island of 23 million sent a powerful message to China in a high-stakes election with global consequences.

(...) With the full count completed just hours after polls closed, Lai won 40.1% of the vote, while his main opponent, Hou You-ih of the traditionally Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party, had 33.5%. Third-party candidate Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People's Party surged to a strong showing of 26.5%.

Lai's victory marked the first time in Taiwan's brief democratic history that an incumbent party won a third consecutive term in office. The 64-year-old former doctor currently serves as vice president under outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, and vowed to maintain the strong stance she has taken against Beijing.

Lai said Saturday he would pursue exchanges and cooperation with China, but only "under the principles of dignity and parity."

 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Congratulations to Lai, Hsiao, the DPP, and the people of Taiwan! Who will/might Lai name as premier?

[MaxQue]

What now for the KMT? It seems totally unable to gain back the Presidency, there is a significant attack on their Blue base by the TPP and a significant part of their base is literaly dying of old age.

[Frodo]

What now for the KMT? It seems totally unable to gain back the Presidency, there is a significant attack on their Blue base by the TPP and a significant part of their base is literaly dying of old age.

Democrats felt the same way after their 1988 loss.  The KMT will come up with their own Bill Clinton eventually (hopefully without the personal scandals).  They have to.  

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What now for the KMT? It seems totally unable to gain back the Presidency, there is a significant attack on their Blue base by the TPP and a significant part of their base is literaly dying of old age.

Four years is a long time in politics. I know jaichind has been insistent that Lai will win reelection, but Tsai (to my eyes) seemed on track to lose in 2020 until the Hong Kong protests happened. All they need is a little more KMT-TPP consolidation.

[jaichind]

I computed legislative district vote share (and comparison to 2020 and 2016)

           2016       2020      2024
DPP     44.59      45.11      44.73
KMT    38.88      40.71      40.44

On paper, it seems the vote shares did not move much but we have to take into account the various candidates DPP and KMT backed in 2020 and 2024 (and for KMT in 2024 they back TPP in 2 seats) so we should compute DPP+ and KMT+ which is

           2016        2020      2024
DPP+   51.96      48.70     46.37
KMT+  38.88       41.98    45.18

The 2024 KMT+ number is a bit underestimated because, in a couple of seats, the KMT was planning to back the TPP candidate until the KMT-TPP unity talks failed which meant the KMT had to rush out some last-minute lower-quality candidate.  Also in a Deep Green Tainan seat, the KMT candidate was disqualified so the parts of the local KMT had to rush out a de facto support of a minor party candidate which also served to cut down the KMT+ vote share.

All things equal the TPP PR vote did lean KMT although a lot of their votes went to minor party candidates.  In many rural seats, the TPP PR vote did not lean toward KMT due to the personal vote strength of the DPP incumbent.  

[jaichind]

Very likely the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028 will be current Taichung mayor Lu.  If she loses to Lai then in 2032 the KMT will run Taipei mayor Chiang who at that stage will almost be a shoo-in to win after 16 years of DPP in power.  If that takes place then after 44 years the Chiang clan will be back in charge of ROC.

Lu running in 2028 and Chiang running in 2032 will mean the KMT avoid an issue that dogged them in 2016 2020 and now in 2024.  Namely, their candidate in all 3 elections was sitting mayors (New Taipei's Chu in 2016, Kaohsiung Han in 2020, and New Taipei's Hou in 2024) who had just been elected a year earlier which opened them up to DPP attacks that they are abandoning their mandate.  It was especially bad in 2020 because Han was just elected for his first term.

[Frodo]

Very likely the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028 will be current Taichung mayor Lu.  If she loses to Lai then in 2032 the KMT will run Taipei mayor Chiang who at that stage will almost be a shoo-in to win after 16 years of DPP in power.  If that takes place then after 44 years the Chiang clan will be back in charge of ROC.

Lu running in 2028 and Chiang running in 2032 will mean the KMT avoid an issue that dogged them in 2016 2020 and now in 2024.  Namely, their candidate in all 3 elections was sitting mayors (New Taipei's Chu in 2016, Kaohsiung Han in 2020, and New Taipei's Hou in 2024) who had just been elected a year earlier which opened them up to DPP attacks that they are abandoning their mandate.  It was especially bad in 2020 because Han was just elected for his first term.

For those in the dark, he is referring to 45-year old Chiang Wan-an, the great grandson of Chiang Kai-shek and elected mayor of Taipei in 2022.  Mayors of that city (like Virginia governors) can only serve one consecutive term.  

[Kamala's side hoe]

Can someone explain Taiwanese political geography to me? I’ve always been curious but am having trouble piecing it together.

It's roughly ethno-linguistic, at least at a basal level, though it should be noted that the entire subject is a very messy one in Taiwan:

Historically the KMT [Chinese nationalists] coalition has been post-WW2 refugees from Communism who represent the institutional dominance of Mandarin (even though they mostly came from non-Mandarin speaking parts of China), Hakka speakers, and Taiwanese aborigines. The DPP [Chinese colonizer] coalition was historically the descendants of Hokkien-speaking settlers from southern Fujian province, who comprise a supermajority of the Taiwanese population. Progressive language shift towards Taiwanese Mandarin among younger generations, political + economic centralization around Taipei, and educational + urban-rural polarization complicate the picture somewhat. But Hokkien-speaking identity is stronger in southern Taiwan, and that’s definitely connected with the DPP base being strongest around Tainan and Kaohsiung. 

[jaichind]

Congratulations to Lai, Hsiao, the DPP, and the people of Taiwan! Who will/might Lai name as premier?

鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) - Former mayor of Taoyuan and now Deputy PM.  Is part of the Northern New Tide faction and is also close to DPP Prez Tsai.  The main problem is persistent issues related to various sex tapes.

潘孟安(Pan Men-an) - Former county magistrate of Pingdong County

卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai) - Former DPP Prez and various key roles in the DPP.  Close to DPP Prez Tsai.

鄭麗君(Cheng Li-Chun) - Former minister of Cultural

I think 卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai)  is the most likely a good transition figure from DPP Prez Tsai to the new DPP Prez Lai.  Tsai and Lai are and still are rivals and getting someone from the Tsai faction will avoid DPP civil war on the preception that the New Tide faction is trying to get all toe plum roles.

[jaichind]

I think TPP Ko setting up KPTV on YouTube was critical to avoid a collapse of the TPP Ko vote after the KMT-TPP unity talks failed.  KPTV was able to give its narrative to the core TPP supporters who were able to influence marginal TPP voters to not defect to KMT Hou.

KPTV followed the path of the pro-PRC CTITV.   CTITV was a Chinatimes-owned Deep Blue and pro-PRC cable news channel that the DPP-controlled FECC was able to deny its cable license on technical grounds.  Former DPP Prez Chen and former DPP VP Lu who were part of the proto-DPP free speech movement against the KMT in the 1970s and 1980s heavily criticized the DPP Tsai administration for this move saying that it violated the core of the original free speech mission of DPP.  Anyway CTITV ended up not dying because it just went to operate on Youtube and was able to get 2.5 million subscribers.

KPTV pretty much was set up the same way on Youtube.  CTITV set the path for TPP Ko to create an alternative media to work around the Green and Blue camp domination of cable news.

[Dan the Roman]

Very likely the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028 will be current Taichung mayor Lu.  If she loses to Lai then in 2032 the KMT will run Taipei mayor Chiang who at that stage will almost be a shoo-in to win after 16 years of DPP in power.  If that takes place then after 44 years the Chiang clan will be back in charge of ROC.

Lu running in 2028 and Chiang running in 2032 will mean the KMT avoid an issue that dogged them in 2016 2020 and now in 2024.  Namely, their candidate in all 3 elections was sitting mayors (New Taipei's Chu in 2016, Kaohsiung Han in 2020, and New Taipei's Hou in 2024) who had just been elected a year earlier which opened them up to DPP attacks that they are abandoning their mandate.  It was especially bad in 2020 because Han was just elected for his first term.

Why don't the KMT skip right to Chiang?

[jaichind]

Very likely the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028 will be current Taichung mayor Lu.  If she loses to Lai then in 2032 the KMT will run Taipei mayor Chiang who at that stage will almost be a shoo-in to win after 16 years of DPP in power.  If that takes place then after 44 years the Chiang clan will be back in charge of ROC.

Lu running in 2028 and Chiang running in 2032 will mean the KMT avoid an issue that dogged them in 2016 2020 and now in 2024.  Namely, their candidate in all 3 elections was sitting mayors (New Taipei's Chu in 2016, Kaohsiung Han in 2020, and New Taipei's Hou in 2024) who had just been elected a year earlier which opened them up to DPP attacks that they are abandoning their mandate.  It was especially bad in 2020 because Han was just elected for his first term.

Why don't the KMT skip right to Chiang?

To avoid the problem I mentioned above.  In 2026 Chiang will run for re-election as mayor of Taipei so if he then jumps into running for Prez in early 2028 it will expose him to attack from the DPP that he is abandoning his mandate.   Running in 2032 avoids that problem.  That is pretty much what TPP Ko did.  He served 2 terms as mayor of Taipei until 2022 and than ran for Prez in 2024.

[jaichind]

In his victory speech, DPP Prez elect Lai said he would work to preserve the status under the framework of the Constitution ROC (a document that states that Taiwan is a part of China and that ROC is the legal government of China.)   That is not how he feels but he had to run on a light Green line to align with DPP Prez Tsai and his speech had to reflect that.  I suspect he also got pressure from the USA to say something like this.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence-2024-01-13/

"U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says"

This sort of confirms that USA and DPP Prez Tsai are brhind Lai's speech which "frames" his Presidency ahead of time. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1746310254353338775?t=nOZTNtekoJSCyAgDep...

I didn't realize this, but TPP Ko actually won a few places.

[jaichind]

Winners of legislative seats in 2016 2020 and 2024


PR vote-winning party by township in 2016 2020 and 2024

[jaichind]

An eyeball of the PR vote and district vote leads me to conclude that all things equal the TPP PR vote broke 2:1 in favor of Pan-Blue candidates over Pan-Green candidates.  Of course, this deviates greatly district by district and in many cases such a vote is not for the KMT+ or DPP+ candidate but a minor party candidate or major party (KMT, DPP) rebel.

[jaichind]

What I wrote in 2022 Oct.  2022 was indeed a landslide defeat for the DPP but like I predicted DPP won in 2024 by losing in 2022.

DPP 2022 reminds me a lot of KMT 1998.  Both have a trump card that if the party rallies around in the next election (2000 and 2024) is very likely to win but the sitting Prez hates that trump card.  In 1998 KMT Prez Lee already had a falling out with his protege Soong (who later formed PFP).  Soong had broad appeal to both marginal DPP and NP voters and was fairly popular within the KMT.  Lee wanted to stop Soong from winning the 2000 KMT nomination at all costs.  Same with DPP VP Lai.  Lai has broad support within the DPP and is preferred by marginal KMT and TPP voters over Tsai and other pro-Tsai candidates.  But DPP Prez Tsai is determined to stop Lai from winning the 2024 DPP nomination.

In many ways, Soong in 1998 and Lai in 2022 are popular BECAUSE they appealed to their party and opposition voters by being known as the enemy of the sitting Prez of the ruling party.

In KMT Prez Lee's case, he needed to win the 1998 legislative election (back the legislative election cycle was separate from the Prez election cycle) as well as the 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor's race.  To do this Lee ran a campaign to win back the NP vote that the KMT lost in 1993-1995 and nominated popular former KMT Minister of Justice Ma for mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City).  Ma had appealed to both the pro-Lee and pro-Soong factions of the KMT and could appeal to NP voters.  Lee won his bet and won1998 elections consolidating his power within the KMT.  Lee then was able to control the KMT nomination process to get KMT VP Lien as the KMT candidate in 2000.  Soong bolted from the KMT to run in 2000 as an independent against KMT's Lien and DPP's Chen (who was defeated by Ma (became KMT Prez in 2008) in the 1998 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor election.)  With Lien and Soong spending a lot of energy attacking each other and exposing scandals about each other DPP Chen was able to win a narrow victory in a 3-way race in 2000.  So the KMT lost in 2000 by winning in 1998.  Had Lee lost the 1998 elections then Soong would have taken over the KMT and most likely have defeated DPP's Chen in 2000.

I think DPP/Tsai in 2022 faces a similar situation.  If Tsai pulls off a win in 2022 (doing well in the North marginals) then she can control the DPP nomination process for 2024.  But that risks a Lai bolt in 2024 if he sees his polling numbers looking good in a fractured race.  If the KMT and TPP (Ko) both run in 2024 that could make it even more appealing for Lai to run as an independent and it is anyone's race in this 4-way battle.   if instead, Tsai loses in 2022 (which now looks likely) Lai will sweep into the control of the party and mostly become the DPP candidate of a fairly united party (assuming Tsai agrees to go quietly into de facto lame-duck retirement within the DPP).  In such a case I think Lai is very likely to win in 2024.  So for the DPP, it might end up winning in 2024 by losing 2022 which is the opposite of the 1998 to 2000 experience for the KMT.

[jaichind]

Four years is a long time in politics. I know jaichind has been insistent that Lai will win reelection, but Tsai (to my eyes) seemed on track to lose in 2020 until the Hong Kong protests happened. All they need is a little more KMT-TPP consolidation.

I agree that in 2028 DPP Prez Lai's chances of reelection are most likely lower than all other ROC re-election efforts given the large buildup in anti-incumbancy.  But you should never count out the incumbent, especially in ROC.  Even at the lowest point for DPP Prez Tsai in early 2019, I rated her re-elect chances at 45% and of course, it surged upward once the HK protests took place.

One can use the 1988 to 1992 Bush the Elder experience as a model and I agree that the KMT could come up with a Clinton-type person to win in 1992.  Another USA model would be from 1992 to 1996 with TPP Ko as Perot.  In 1992 Perot was most likely closer ideologically to Bush but they were not of the same political background just like KMT Hou and TPP Ko this time.  Using the 1992 to 1996 model TPP Ko will run again in 2028 with a lower vote share but the incumbent, DPP Prez Lai, would win against a generic KMT candidate (someone like Lu who would do a better job than KMT Hou at consolidating the KMT base but will not be able to attract Light Green or youth voters leaving for TPP Ko to pick up some of those votes.)

What DPP Prez Lai has against him is that in the 2020-2022 period, the ROC economy overperformed mostly based on the tech sector.  The reversion to the mean and increased competition from the PRC in the tech sector will mean the economic situation will not be that hot over the next 4 years and in the 1988 to 1992 model create a 1992 situation for DPP Prez Lai.

[jaichind]

History of PR vote by bloc (since 2008 when the current system of a separate PR vote started) 

                          2024        2020       2016       2012        2008
Deep Blue           0.7%         2.2%       6.3%      1.5%       4.0%
KMT                 34.6%        33.4%      26.9%   44.6%      51.2%
Light Blue           0.5%         4.2%      10.2%     6.7%        2.2%
TPP                  22.1%        11.2%
Light Green        5.0%        10.3%       3.2%      3.4%        1.9%
DPP                  36.2%       34.0%      44.1%    34.6%      36.9%
Deep Green        1.0%         4.8%        9.4%      9.2%        3.8%

Note for NPP, I counted them as Deep Green in 2016 but as Light Green in 2020 and after.  Just like I would count PFP as Deep Blue before 2005 but Light Blue after 2005.

When I have a chance to download the data by township I will do a regression on PR -> Prez vote.  I suspect DPP Lai won the Deep Green/DPP PR vote and split the Light Green PR vote with TPP Ko.  KMT Hou won the Deep Blue and most of the KMT PR vote while splitting the Light Green PR vote with TPP Ko.  TPP Ko won the TPP PR vote, got some of the Light Green and Light Blue PR votes and ate into the KMT PR vote.

[jaichind]

Within the TPP camp, there does seem to be some recrimination about TPP Ko's performance.  While TPP Ko outperformed mainstream polling the core TPP vote has been told by KPTV that TPP internal polling shows TPP Ko has already pushed KMT Hou to third place and is within striking distance of DPP Lai.  KPTV also says that the mainstream polls are wrong and paid for by DPP or KMT.  The results show that the mainstream polls were mostly right with the exception of TPP Ko outperforming by 3%-4% relative to KMT Hou but still significantly behind KMT Hou in third place.

TPP Ko head of the TPP PR list and likely next Deputy Speaker 黃珊珊 (Huang Shan-Shan) has not really addressed their main pre-election talking point and the actual results.   To be fair claiming you are doing better than the real situation on the ground before an election and then just moving on after the election is pretty standard but TPP claimed to be a "party that is different" and not "politics as usual".

[jaichind]

2024 continues the tradition going back to 2012 of the losing candidate after outperforming in the local elections a bit more than a year earlier and underperforming in the same city in the Prez election.

2010 New Taipei mayor
KMT     52.6 (Chu)
DPP     47.4 (Tsai) - Tsai lost but her vote share was viewed as an outperformance against rising KMT superstar Chu

2012 Prez election in New Taipei
KMT     53.7 (Ma)
DPP     43.5 (Tsai) - Ma was viewed as being vulnerable here but DPP Tsai underperformed
PFP      2.8


2014 New Taipei mayor
KMT    50.1 (Chu) - Chu underperformed but at least he won narrowly re-election
DPP     49.9

2016 Prez election in New Taipei
DPP     54.8 (Tsai)
KMT     33.3 (Chu) - Chu underperformed by a big margin
PFP      11.9


2018 Kaoshiung mayor
KMT    53.9 (Han) - shock Han upset victory
DPP     44.8

2020 Prez election in Kaoshiung
DPP     62.2 (Tsai)
KMT     34.6 (Han) - total underperformance
PFP       3.1


2022 New Taipei mayor
KMT    62.4 (Hou) - bigger margin of re-election victory than expected
DPP     37.6

2024 New Taipei Prez
DPP    38.6 (Lai)
KMT    35.2 (Hou) - Hou was expected to be at least narrowly ahead here
TPP     26.2 (Ko)

The main lesson is: if you are going to run and either win or outperform in a local election, DO NOT run for Prez a year later.  The votes you got in the local mayor election are not transferable to you Prez race.