2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[Logical]

The legislative election will be very interesting, looks like DPP is going take a beating.

[greengod]

According to TVBS, NPP would pass above 5%. They get 2 seats now.

[jaichind]

According to TVBS, NPP would pass above 5%. They get 2 seats now.

That is based on one voting booth.  The PR vote count would be the slowest

[jaichind]

TVBS has it at

DPP Lai    38.1
KMT Hou  32.8
TPP Ko     29.1

DPP Lai converging toward my 40 target for him

[jaichind]

TVBS now has it at

DPP Lai     38.7
KMT Hou   33.0
TPP Ko      28.3


pro-DPP SETN has it at

DPP Lai     36.3
KMT Hou   33.6
TPP Ko      30.1

Ironically SETN numbers for DPP Lai are worse than TVBS

[Double Carpet]

Jaichind, huge thanks for all the updates.

Is it safe to call the presidency for the DPP already?

Also amazed how fast the vote count is per TVBS - first tallies appeared after 4 mins and after 45 mins we are almost 4 million!

Assume these are the actual vote counts being reported from the counts at the polling stations?

Many thanks.

[jaichind]

Taoyuan County is a virtual 3-way tie !!!

[jaichind]

Jaichind, huge thanks for all the updates.

Is it safe to call the presidency for the DPP already?

Also amazed how fast the vote count is per TVBS - first tallies appeared after 4 mins and after 45 mins we are almost 4 million!

Assume these are the actual vote counts being reported from the counts at the polling stations?

Many thanks.

Yep, DPP Lai won.  The fun part would be the legislative race. TPP outperformance makes the legislative races hard to predict.  Note that all media outfits have stringers and do their own parallel count.  Some of those numbers are "made up" in the sense they are anticipatory. 

[jaichind]

TPP Ko is ahead in Hsinchu City (not that big of a surprise) but also in Deep Blue Hsinchu County.   That the DPP Lai is close to the 40% vote share I expect shows the level of Pan-Blue defection to TPP Ko.

[jaichind]

TVBS has DPP Lai gaining ground relative to TPP Ko

DPP Lai       39.2
KMT Hou     33.1
TPP Ko        27.7


SETN still has a weaker DPP Lai performance

DPP Lai       37.1
KMT Hou     33.0
TPP Ko        29.9

[jaichind]

Overall it seems the DPP Lai to KMT Hou gap is around the same as the KMT Hou to TPP Ko gap.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I still have some hope that Hou will win, I think it's a longshot though.

[Double Carpet]

Jaichind, just out of interest do you have a link to the official vote count (rather than a media one)?

Thanks.

[Logical]

Hou behind in New Taipei lol.

[Logical]

Jaichind, just out of interest do you have a link to the official vote count (rather than a media one)?

Thanks.

CEC has a livestream on YouTube

[jaichind]

TVBS count - DPP Lai continues to gain vis-a-vis TPP Ko

DPP Lai    39.6
KMT Hou  33.1
TPP Ko     27.3


SETN has better numbers for TPP Ko

DPP Lai    38.6
KMT Hou  32.7
TPP Ko     28.8

[jaichind]

A look at the legislative counts so far seems to indicate that KMT will be SLP but not majority.  The count is very early but the overall trend is clear.

[jaichind]

TVBS count - Mostly stabilizing

DPP Lai    39.6
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     27.2


SETN has better numbers for TPP Ko

DPP Lai    38.0
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     28.5

[jaichind]

Regional distribution seems to be

a) DPP Lai gets the core DPP base
b) TPP Ko outperforms and eats significantly into the Pan-Blue base in urban/high-education areas but less so in rural areas.

[jaichind]

TVBS count - Mostly stabilizing

DPP Lai    39.6
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     27.2


SETN has better numbers for TPP Ko but converging toward TVBS numbers

DPP Lai    38.3
KMT Hou  33.6
TPP Ko     28.1


CEC count - tiny numbers (mostly South rural lean)

DPP Lai    43.0
KMT Hou  34.9
TPP Ko     22.1

[jaichind]

As expected all the media counts slow down dramatically to now see what numbers CEC comes up with so they can converge their numbers to the real count.

We should read the media numbers as their educated guess on what the count should be + the need to have a higher number for the political lean of their likely viewers.   In that sense, it is weird that TVBS has a better number for DPP Lai then SETN.  Historically TVBS is usually more accurate so I put more weight on TVBS numbers than SETN.

TVBS count

DPP Lai    39.6
KMT Hou  33.2
TPP Ko     27.2


SETN Count

DPP Lai    38.4
KMT Hou  33.6
TPP Ko     28.0


CEC count - tiny numbers (mostly South rural lean)

DPP Lai    43.1
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     22.4

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So this seems to lean more to the "bad for KMT" loss you were talking about, right? TPP only 4-5% behind KMT definitely makes things tough

[jaichind]

In the very early PR count, it seems TSP is underperforming.  This bodes well for DPP to tie KMT for the PR vote.  Still, the numbers are tiny so not a trend yet.

[jaichind]

So this seems to lean more to the "bad for KMT" loss you were talking about, right? TPP only 4-5% behind KMT definitely makes things tough

Correct.  TPP Ko is not finished as a force with these results so the KMT will have its work cut out for it if it wants to beat DPP Lai in 2028.  DPP Lai will have a difficult term without a legislative majority but it is not at all clear that the KMT can take advantage of it in 2028 with TPP Ko out there.

[jaichind]

All things equal in more pro-Blue urban areas there are signs that KMT-TPP consolidation took place for legislative races but most likely did not take place in rural areas where the DPP incumbency advantage still held sway.  So my prediction for pro-Blue urban areas was mostly accurate but off in rural seats where some of the DPP incumbents will hold on.